Investment Outlook Mei 2017

Transkripsi

1 Unit Link Investment Outlook Mei 2017 Berdasarkan data April 2017 Investment Division

2 Agenda 1 Investment Issues 2 Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast

3 1 1 Investment Issues 2 Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast

4 Indikator Makro Ekonomi APBN-P 2016 APBN 2017 April 2017* PDB Inflasi Nilai Tukar 10,452 13,392 13,500 13,300 13,339 Harga Minyak Mentah day repo rate *Data realisasi s/d April

5 Market Outlook Global 2017 AMERIKA SERIKAT The Fed Mempertahankan Suku Bunga : FOMC meeting bulan Mei 2017 memutuskan untuk menahan suku bunga acuan FFR sebesar 0,75%-1,0%. The Fed menyatakan bahwa pasar tenaga kerja tumbuh solid, ditengah ekonomi AS yang tumbuh melambat awal tahun ini. Konsumsi rumah tangga tumbuh moderat dan laju inflasi diprediksi akan mencapai target 2 persen dalam jangka menengah. Proposal jaminan kesehatan yang diajukan Trump disetujui Kongres AS namun harus melalui voting di senat EROPA Emmanuel Macron terpilih sebagai Presiden Prancis penerus Francois Hollande berdasarkan hasil pemilihan umum Minggu, 6 Mei Kemenangan tokoh berhaluan tengah tersebut juga membuat sejumlah negara Eropa lain bernafas lega karena sempat khawatir atas kembangkitan kelompok populis gaya Le Pen. Tingkat penganguran zona Euro masih tetap di 9.5% di Maret ASIA Cadangan devisa Tiongkok Apr17 naik ke $3,03 triliun dari $3 triliun. Surplus dagang melebar ke $38,05 miliar dari $23,93 miliar. Manufacturing PMI Tiongkok turun ke level 51.2 dari 51.8 di bulan April 2017 Tiongkok menjanjikan US$124 miliar untuk jalur sutera yang bertujuan membuka perdagangan dari Asia, Afrika, hingga Eropa, didukung pembangunan infrastruktur miliaran dollar. Jalur ini akan mendorong sistem perdagangan dan investasi dunia yang adil, setara, dan transparan. Internal Use Only 5

6 Market Outlook Domestik 2017 Ruang Pertumbuhan Masih Ada Pertumbuhan PDB 1Q2017 sesuai ekspektasi membaik hingga mecapai 5.01%YoY namun lebih rendah dari perkiraan konsensus 5.1%YoY. Ekspor dan investasi masih menjadi motor pengrak utama. Diperkirakan kedepannya dengan intensitas realisasi belanja pemerintah yang semakin membaik pertumbuhan akan teus memperlihatkan angka perbaikan. Diperkirakan PDB 2017 akan membaik ke level 5.2% YoY. BKPM melaporkan realisasi investasi di 1Q17 mencapai Rp165.8Triliun aau umbuh 13.5%YoY. PMA tumbuh 0.94% ke Rp 97Triliun Inflasi kembali Naik Setelah beberapa waktu inflasi bulanan relatif cukup rendah, inflasi tahunan kembali naik ke level 4.17%. Siklus deflasi pangan yang terjadi akan berakhir di Mei 2017 bersamaan dengan dimlanya bulan Ramadhandan efek dari kelanjutan kenaikan tarif listrik 900VA. Diperkirakan inflasi akan naik ke level 4.2%-4.3% di bulan Mei. Namun masih sesuai dengan target inflasi pemerintah di APBN inflasi berada di level 4% plus minus 1% Dana Asing Menyelamatkan Neraca Pembayaran RI Bank Indonesia mengumumkan NPI kuartal I tahun 2017 kembali surplus sebanyak US$ 4,5 miliar, meskipun di saat bersamaan transaksi berjalan kembali defisit. Hal ini ditopang tingginya surplus transaksi modal dan finansial yang melampaui defisit transaksi berjalan. Derasnya capital inflow terus berdatangan pada instrumen berdenomenasi rupiah seperti Surat Utang Negara (SUN), Surat Perbendaharaan Negara (SPN) dan saham, serta penerbitan sukuk global pemerintah. Internal Use Only 6

7 2 1 Investment Issues 2 Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast 7

8 Allianz Fund Performance - Conventional No. Fund 1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 1 Tahun 3 Tahun YTD SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Infrastructure Fund SmartWealth Equity Indoglobal Fund SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia Fund Total Aset IDR (Mil) USD (Jt) Peluncuran 2.36% 9.53% 7.74% 24.14% 19.31% 8.69% Sep % 5.48% 1.94% 12.49% N/A 5.84% Nov % 5.53% 1.57% 12.17% 13.71% 6.49% May-11 4 Smartlink Rupiah Equity Fund 1.58% 5.67% 0.31% 11.59% 14.71% 5.60% 8.830,19 1-Sep SmartWealth US Dollar Equity IndoAsia Fund SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Small Medium Capital Fund Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus Fund 1.74% 5.80% -0.36% 11.31% -0.89% 7.86% May % 6.74% 2.59% 11.06% -3.36% 6.19% Sep % 5.25% 0.79% 10.54% 15.94% 5.59% Jul-09 8 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Fund 0.88% 3.97% 1.64% 7.92% 17.98% 4.63% 2.490,24 8-Mar Smartlink Rupiah Fixed Income Fund SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Indoconsumer Fund Smartlink Rupiah Money Market Fund Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap 0.52% 4.28% 2.98% 7.20% 22.73% 5.76% May % 4.33% -1.50% 6.03% 11.32% 4.16% Jun % 1.16% 2.41% 5.09% 19.63% 1.61% May-01 0,33% 1.05% 2.18% 4.46% N/A 1.46% Aug Smartlink Dollar Managed Fund 0.33% 2.75% 0.00% 4.22% 14.09% 4.05% Apr SmartWealth Liquiflex LQ45 Fund 2.13% 5.23% -2.34% -2.08% 1.50% 4.08% Jul-13 Internal Use Only 8

9 Allianz Fund Performance - Syariah No. Fund 1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 1 Tahun 3 Tahun YTD Total Aset IDR (Mil) USD (Jt) Peluncuran 1 Allisya Rupiah Equity Fund 2.45% 6.63% -1.53% 10.88% 13.17% 5.98% Apr-06 2 Allisya Rupiah Balanced Fund 1.52% 5.07% -0.02% 7.83% 14.07% 5.59% Apr-03 3 Allisya Rupiah Fixed Income Fund 0.46% 2.58% 2.14% 5.85% 18.53% 4.04% Jul-09 Internal Use Only 9

10 Fund Forecast No. Fund Jangka Pendek Jangka Panjang 1 SmartWealth Dollar Equity IndoAsia Fund 2 SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia Fund 3 SmartWealth Equity Indo Global Fund 4 SmartWealth Equity Small Medium Capital Fund 5 SmartWealth Equity Infrastructure Fund 6 SmartWealth Equity Indoconsumer Fund 7 Smartlink Rupiah Equity Fund 8 SmartWealth Equity Liquiflex LQ45 Fund 9 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus Fund 10 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Fund 11 Smartlink Dollar Managed Fund 12 Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap 13 Smartlink Fixed Income Fund 14 Smartlink Rupiah Money Market Fund Internal Use Only 10

11 Fund Forecast No. Fund Jangka Pendek Jangka Panjang 1 Allisya Equity Fund 2 Allisya Balanced Fund 3 Allisya Fixed Income Fund Internal Use Only 11

12 Disclaimer This document is prepared for general information only, and the specific investment objectives, personal situation and particular needs of any person have not been taken into consideration. You should read the relevant product and fund documentation, including the relevant product summary, product highlights sheets and fund summaries for details before deciding to invest. Copies of the product and fund documentation can be obtained from our authorized agents or distributors. The past performance of any fund is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the fund. The value of investments and units in any fund June go down as well as up, which is an investment risk which you June face. You should not rely on this document as investment advice. If you have any concerns about any investment products or are uncertain about the suitability of any investment decision, you should seek such financial advice from your professional advisers as appropriate. Information contained in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however Allianz does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates expressed are subject to change without notice and Allianz expressly disclaims any and all liability for representations and warranties, express or implied, contained herein, or for omissions.

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