Unit Link Investment Outlook Desember 2016 Berdasarkan data November 2016 Investment Division
Agenda 1 Investment Issues 2 Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast
1 1 Investment Issues 2 Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast
Dashboard Makroekonomi 2016 Inflasi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Rata- Rata Nilai Tukar Defisit Neraca Berjalan Realisasi 2015 3.45% 4.79% 12,500 2.7% 1Q16 0.41% 4.92% 13,500 2.14% 2Q16 0.44% 5.18% 13,300 2.0% 3Q16 0.35% 5.02% 13.377 1.83% APBN-P 2016 4% 5.2% 13,500 2.35% Internal Use Only 4
Market Outlook Global 2016 AMERIKA SERIKAT Tingkat pengangguran di bulan November 2016 turun ke level 4,6% dari bulan Oktober 2016 yang berada di level 4,9%. Data Non Farm Payroll pada November 2016 menunjukkan ada peningkatan sebesar 178.000 penambahan tenaga kerja. Diluar ekspektasi, Donald Trump terpilih menjadi presiden Amerikat Serikat ke-45. Para investor berharap dengan terpilihnya Trump pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat lebih tinggi dengan kebijakan-kebijakan yang mendukung pertumbuhan. EROPA Inflasi zona eropa diekspektasi mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,6% year on year pada bulan November 2016 dimana bulan Oktober 2016 inflasi meningkat 0,5% year on year sesuai dengan ekspektasi konsensus. Indeks PMI Manufaktur zona eropa meningkat ke angka 53,7 dari bulan sebelumnya yang merupakan angka tertinggi sejak Februari 2011. ASIA Indeks manufaktur China meningkat ke level 51,70 di bulan November 2016 diamana sebelumnya berada di angka 51,2 di bulan Oktober 2016. Indeks sentimen di antara produsen besar di Jepang naik ke level 10 dari tiga bulan lalu yang berada di level 6. Meningkatnya sentimen produsen di Jepang menunjukkan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi moderat sedang berlangsung pada sembilan bulan pertama tahun ini. Internal Use Only 5
Market Outlook Domestik 2016 Penerimaan Pajak Hingga November 2016 Penerimaan pajak sampai November 2016 mencapai Rp 965 Triliun, dimana angka tersebut baru mencapai 61,2% dari target. Pada Desember 2016, Kementrian Keuangan mengidentifikasi adanya penerimaan pajak hingga Rp 100 Triliun selain itu, ada tambahan pemasukan dari program pengampunan pajak (tax amnesty) hingga Rp 42 Triliun. Penurunan Cadangan Devisa Bank Indonesia (BI) mencatat posisi cadangan devisa sebesar US$ 111,5 miliar per akhir November 2016. Posisi cadangan devisa ini lebih rendah dibandingkan posisi akhir Oktober 2016 sebesar US$ 115 miliar. Penurunan cadangan devisa terutama disebabkan oleh kebutuhan devisa untuk pembayaran utang luar negeri dan juga untuk stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah sesuai dengan fundamentalnya. Laju Inflasi Terjaga Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat inflasi sebesar 0,47% pada November 2016. Angka ini lebih tinggi dibanding bulan sebelumnya yang hanya 0,14%. Inflasi tahun kalender (Januari-November) tercatat 2,59% dan secara year on year (yoy) sebesar 3,58%. Dari 82 kota yang disurvei BPS, 78 kota alami inflasi dan empat kota alami deflasi. Internal Use Only 6
2 1 Investment Issues 2 Allianz Fund Performance & Forecast 7
Allianz Fund Performance - Conventional No. Fund 1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 1 Tahun 3 Tahun YTD Total Aset IDR (Mil) USD (Jt) Peluncuran 1 2 Smartlink Rupiah Money Market Fund Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap 0.38% 1.19% 2.52% 5.64% 20.66% 5.15% 360.15 25-May-01 0.37% 1.12% 2.21% 4.94% #N/A 4.46% 1.25 18-Aug-14 3 Smartlink Dollar Managed Fund -2.87% -4.42% 1.47% 7.21% 15.19% 7.64% 40.14 7-Apr-03 4 Smartlink Rupiah Fixed Income Fund -3.80% -4.12% 0.64% 8.63% 20.97% 9.62% 974.08 25-May-01 5 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Fund -3.96% -3.76% 2.02% 9.32% 19.44% 8.21% 2,425.55 8-Mar-04 6 7 8 9 10 SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia Fund SmartWealth Equity Indoglobal Fund SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Small Medium Capital Fund SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Infrastructure Fund Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus Fund -5.22% -4.91% 3.83% 12.22% 18.09% 9.51% 566.10 5-May-11-5.26% -5.19% 3.73% 12.92% #N/A 10.09% 11.61 7-Nov-14-5.64% -6.17% 2.98% 12.55% 0.40% 8.80% 1.51 27-Sep-13-5.92% -4.97% 9.07% 17.78% 17.81% 11.53% 91.14 27-Sep-13-6.16% -5.68% 2.91% 12.51% 19.27% 9.87% 412.35 15-Jul-09 11 Smartlink Rupiah Equity Fund -6.68% -6.03% 4.04% 14.87% 22.53% 11.29% 8,536.18 1-Sep-07 12 13 14 SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Indoconsumer Fund SmartWealth Liquiflex LQ45 Fund SmartWealth US Dollar Equity IndoAsia Fund -7.20% -7.81% 0.34% 17.48% 17.33% 13.87% 106.69 17-Jun-13-7.69% -7.62% -4.82% -6.46% 6.10% -7.67% 140.01 3-Jul-13-8.69% -6.94% 4.62% 13.85% 3.98% 10.40% 41.78 1-May-12 Internal Use Only 8
Allianz Fund Performance - Syariah No. Fund 1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 1 Tahun 3 Tahun YTD Total Aset IDR (Mil) USD (Jt) Peluncuran 1 Allisya Rupiah Equity Fund -8.35% -8.70% 2.88% 16.13% 17.22% 11.05% 726,58 25-Apr-06 2 Allisya Rupiah Balanced Fund -6.47% -6.67% 0.74% 9.49% 15.40% 6.71% 501.31 7-Apr-03 3 Allisya Rupiah Fixed Income Fund -2.82% -2.70% 1.13% 6.51% 17.71% 6.61% 68.24 15-Jul-09 Internal Use Only 9
Fund Forecast No. Fund Jangka Pendek Jangka Panjang 1 SmartWealth Dollar Equity IndoAsia Fund 2 SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia Fund 3 SmartWealth Equity Indo Global Fund 4 SmartWealth Equity Small Medium Capital Fund 5 SmartWealth Equity Infrastructure Fund 6 SmartWealth Equity Indoconsumer Fund 7 Smartlink Rupiah Equity Fund 8 SmartWealth Equity Liquiflex LQ45 Fund 9 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus Fund 10 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Fund 11 Smartlink Dollar Managed Fund 12 Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap 13 Smartlink Fixed Income Fund 14 Smartlink Rupiah Money Market Fund 10
Fund Forecast No. Fund Jangka Pendek Jangka Panjang 1 Allisya Equity Fund 2 Allisya Balanced Fund 3 Allisya Fixed Income Fund 11
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