Lingkungan Strategis XXI
Balance of Power ARMS Trade Strategic Environment Force Deployment RMA
Unipolar Moment-Concert of Power Differentiation of Distribution of Power Imperial Overstretch Limit of Innovation System Disequilibrium World War: Hegemonic vs Revisionist State(s)
Kemunduruan Hegemoni AS Kompetisi Strategis AS- China-India 2050: Multipolar
AS Rusia Inggris Perancis China India Jepang Korea Selatan Brazil Australia, Belanda, Italia, Spanyol, Kanada
Intention Pattern of Enmity Capacity Power Rise Crisis Territorial Expansion WAR
Hegemonic Balance of Power Revisionist-Balancing Bandwoganing Pattern of Enmity Regional Complex Pattern of Amity Conservative-Hawkish Political Ideology Liberal-Dove Revisionist-Innovation Military Organization Status Quo-Conservative Defense Budget Arms Build-Up Arms Maintenance Arms Reduction Autarky Military Industrial Complex Counter Dependent Dependent Proportion of GDP 3.5-4% 1-3% <1% Andi Widjajanto
Force to Force Ratio Military Modernization Offensive Weapon System Provocative Force Deployment Security Dilemma Arms Build Up Arms Race WAR
Skenario S0 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 2014 Hegemoni AS Hegemoni China Kompetisi Global AS-China G Zero Pertarungan Regional Probabilitas 1 Rendah-Sedang Sedang Sedang-Tinggi Rendah Tinggi Karakteristik Tanggapan Strategis Polaritas Sistem Internasional Tingkat Stabilitas Sistem Internasional Perimbangan Militer Unipolar Unipolar Unipolar Bipolar Multipolar Multipolar Tinggi Tinggi Tinggi Tinggi Rendah Sedang Condong ke AS Condong ke AS Condong ke China Condong ke AS Kebijakan Aliansi Quasi Alliance Integrasi ke AS Tanpa Aliansi Global Aliansi AS Trajektori Strategi Diplomasi- Pertahanan Doktrin Pertahanan 1 KPM 2024 Netral: Dynamic Equillibrim 1 KPM 2024 2 Peace Deviden 1 Kekuatan Regional 2 KPM 2024 3 Tentara Teritorial KPM 2024 Tanpa Perimbangan Tanpa Aliansi Global Tentara Teritorial Perimbangan Regional Aliansi Regional Kekuatan Regional Bandwoganing AS Bandwoganing China Balancing Power Rise Regional Balancing Defensif Defensif Defensif Ofensif Ofensif Ofensif Program Senjata Base Force Base Force Base Force Base Force Moderinization Arms Build Up Sistem Senjata Utama Air-Maritime Patrol Air Control Maritime Surveillance Air Control Maritime Projection Missile Shield Air Strike Maritime Projection Air Strike Maritime Projection Air Strike Maritime Projection Anggaran Pertahanan Rendah Rendah Rendah Tinggi Sedang-Tinggi Sedang-Tinggi Dukungan Politik Sedang Tinggi Rendah Sedang Tinggi Sedang
Trajektori T0 T1 2014 KPM 2024 Probabilitas 1 Tinggi Determinan Karakteristik Kapabilitas Militer Strategi Diplomasi- Pertahanan Kebijakan Aliansi Global AD: Tentara Teritorial AL: Naval Patrol - Brown Water Navy AL: Air Patrol Terpadu: - Dynamic Equillibrium Non Aliansi AD: Mechanical Division AL: Maritime Surveillance - Green Water Navy AU: Air Control Terpadu: Komando Gabungan Regional Balancing Non Aliansi Stabilitas Sistem Tinggi Sedang Konflik Internal Tinggi Sedang Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Anggaran Pertahanan/PDB Sedang-Tinggi (6-7%) Sedang-Tinggi (6-7%) Rendah (1.2%) Sedang (2.5-3%) Demokratisasi Inisasi Demokrasi Konsolidasi Demokrasi Regim Politik Demokratis Demokratis Karakter Regim Dove Hawk Hubungan Sipil Militer Profesionalitas Militer Industri Pertahanan Kendali Sipil Lemah Kendali Sipil Obyektif Sedang Tinggi (5) Infant Industri Ceruk
Pertahanan Indonesia 2045 Reformasi Militer Tentara Profesional Transformasi Pertahanan KPM 2024 Inovasi Militer Kekuatan Regional 2045 1999 2009 2014 2029 2045 Konsolidasi Demokrasi Ekonomi Pertahanan Teknologi Pertahanan
2014 1% PDB Brown Water Navy Fast Patrol Boat Light Fregate 2020 2024 1.5% PDB 2.5% PDB Green Water Navy Fregate Corvette Submarines 2030 3.5% PDB Blue Water Navy Destroyer Submarines
Budaya Maritim Pertahanan Maritim Poros Maritim Ekonomi Maritim Diplomasi Maritim Infrastruktur Maritim
Geo Maritime Pertahanan Maritim Maritime Security Regime Naval Arms Dynamics
Negara Kepulauan Maritime Sphere of Influence Deklarasi Juanda Poros Maritim Dunia Maritime Projection UNCLOS 1982 Wawasan Nusantara
AS Rusia Inggris Perancis China India Jepang Korea Selatan Brazil Australia, Belanda, Italia, Spanyol, Kanada
2014 KPM 2024 Kekuatan Regional 2045 Hegemoni AS Hegemoni China Kompetisi AS China G Zero Pertarungan Regional