LISTRIK DAN PEMBANGUNAN. Faisal Basri

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1 LISTRIK DAN PEMBANGUNAN Faisal Basri 7 Februari 2013

Badan Pusat Statistik and http://www.economist.

2 Penduduk Indonesia mirip Jepang th Indonesia Jepang 5% 66% = 55% 29% Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and ( _WOC951)

3 % of population Dependency ratio: children and elderly to working age (%) Maximizing opportunities: Indonesia s remaining demographic dividend Dependency ratio (%) Working age: 15 to 64 (%) Children: 14 and below (%) Elderly: above 64 (%) Source: World Bank, Indonesia economic update: Near-term issues and looking ahead to 2012, March 2011.

4 Real GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) GDP per capita when demographic bonus end 20,000 17,475 Indonesia is likely to get old before it gets rich 16,298 15,000 10,000 5,000 12,855 11,347 Assuming 6% growth 3,583 Assuming 10% growth 7, Japan Singapore Hong Kong Korea, Rep. Indonesia Indonesia Source: World Bank, presented by Shubham Chaudhuri at Kompas Economic Panel Discussion, June 21, 2012.

5 The rising population share of middle strata Class Cut-off Percent of population Low Middle < $ % 62.2% 14.0% $ $2 40.3% 29.3% $2 - $4 32.1% 38.5% $4 - $6 3.9% 37.7% 11.7% $6 - $10 1.3% 5.0% $10 - $20 0.3% 1.3% 43.2% 56.5% High > $20 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Note: Per capita expenditure per day is adjusted to the 2005 purchasing power parity terms. Source: World Bank, March 2011, based on Susenas.

6 Looking ahead within Indonesia To a growing middle class Source: World Bank, June 2012

7 Top-18 economies PPP 2009 Rank PPP 2050 Rank Source: PWC, The world in New York, 2011.

The future of archipelago economy Indonesia Today Indonesia in 2030 Economy in the world 16th-largest 7th largest Member of the consuming class 45 million 135 million Population in the cities 53% 71%

8 The future of archipelago economy Indonesia Today Indonesia in 2030 Economy in the world 16th-largest 7th largest Member of the consuming class 45 million 135 million Population in the cities 53% 71% producing 74% GDP 86% GDP Number of skilled workers 55 million 113 million Market opportunity $0.5 trillion $1.8 trillion Source: McKinsey< The archiipelago economy: Unleashing Indonesia spotential, 2012.

9 Real GDP/capita: actual vs potential Source: based on BPS data.

Wiggle-room index Sources: The Economiest, 27 January 2012.

10 Wiggle-room index Sources: The Economiest, 27 January

11 BRICS and Indonesia in comparison China India Brazil Russia Indonesia S. Africa Population (million) 1,344 1, Life expectancy at birth, total (years) Surface are (million sq. km) GDP (current US$) 5,930 1,684 2,143 1, Industry, value added (% of GDP) Gross capital formation (% of GDP) Merchandise trade (% of GDP) Market cap. of listed companies (% of GDP) Electric power consumption (kwh per capita) 2, ,206 6, ,532 Internet users (per 100 people) Military expenditure (% of GDP) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Oil prices Crude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) January 2013 96.67 = 2:33 p.

12 Oil prices Crude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) January = 2:33 p.m EDT Adjusted by producerprice index = US$118 Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 Source: Economist, April 17, Source:

13 Trade balance of oil and oil products Crude Oil Exports 5,621 6,241 8,146 8,169 9,226 12,419 7,820 10,403 13,829 12,293 Imports -3,928-5,831-6,797-7,853-9,057-10,062-7,362-8,531-11,154-10,803 (X - M) 1, , , ,872 2,675 1,490 Oil Products Exports 1,548 1,654 1,932 2,844 2,879 3,547 2,262 3,967 4,777 4,159 Imports -3,583-5,892-10,646-11,080-12,787-20,231-11,129-18,018-28,134-28,680 (X - M) -2,035-4,238-8,714-8,236-9,908-16,684-8,876-14,051-23,357-24,521 Total Exports 7,169 7,896 10,078 11,013 12,105 15,966 10,082 14,370 18,606 16,452 Imports -7,510-11,724-17,443-18,933-21,844-30,293-18,491-26,549-39,288-39,483 (X - M) 342-3,828-7,365-7,920-9,739-14,327-8,409-12,179-20,682-23,031 Source: BPS.

14 Trade balance of oil and gas US$ million Source: Badan Pusat Statistik. Oil & oil products Gas Oil & gas

15 Impor 13 gol. barang utama (CIF, juta US$) (Total impor migas US$42,565 atau 22.2% dari total impor) No Golongan barang Hasil minyak (Bahan Bakar Minyak) 28,134 28,680 2 Mesin dan peralatan mekanik 24,729 28,415 3 Mesin dan peralatan listrik 18,245 18,902 4 Minyak mentah 11,154 10,803 5 Besi dan baja 8,580 10,140 6 Kendaraan bermotor dan bagiannya 7,603 9,753 7 Plastik dan barang dari plastik 6,688 6,991 8 Bahan kimia organik 6,635 6,883 9 Barang dari besi dan baja 3,573 4, Kapal terbang dan bagiannya 3,421 4, Serealia 4,753 3, Gas 1,412 3, Sisa industri makanan 2,219 2,798 Source: BPS.

Belanja Pemerintah pusat 300 RAPBN 2013 (triliun rupiqah) 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

16 Belanja Pemerintah pusat 300 RAPBN 2013 (triliun rupiqah) Sources: Kementerian Keuangan Belanja pegawai Belanja Barang Belanja modal Bunga utang Subsidi energi Bantuan sosial

17 Alokasi subsidi pada RAPBN 2003 Jenis subsidi Nilai (Rp tr.) Persen BBM Listrik Pangan Pupuk Benih PSO Kredit program Pajak Total Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan

18 8-Apr 9-Sep 27-Jan 15-Jun 25-Oct 13-Mar 26-Jul 14-Dec 30-Apr 11-Sep 8-Feb 24-Jun 10-Nov Mar-31 Aug-13 4-Jan 18-May 30-Sep 11-Feb 27-Jun 11-Nov 26-Mar 6-Aug Dec-21 Heart beat has been appreciating... (Rupiah per US$) 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 Source: Bank Indonesia

19 Source: BPS. Economic temperature lower Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, % Target BI: 4.5% + 1%

20 Indonesia s post-crisis journey Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, % Crisis peak Gus Dur: Erratic/shaky Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction Source: BPS.

21 GDP growth & structure, and employment Sector Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Share Worker 1. Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Utilities Construction Trade & hospitality Transport & Comm Finance Other Services GDP/Total Sources: BPS.

22 Growth of manufacturing industries % change, year-on-year, Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Food, beverages and tobacco Textiles, leather and footwear Wood and forestry products Paper and printing Fertilizers, chemicals&ruber products Cement and non-metal quarrying Basic metals and steel Vehicles, machinery and equipments NON-OIL & GAS MFG INDUSTRIES TOTAL MFG INDUSTRIES GDP Source: BPS.

23 Pilar daya saing Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report

24 Peran pemerintah makin loyo Source: IMF, Indonesia: selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 12/278, September 2012.

25 Terima Kasih

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