Ekonomi, Moneter dan Keuangan

Ekonomi, Moneter dan Keuangan T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 0

I. TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER Januari 2014 T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 1

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 2

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 3

2012 2013 IMF Consensus Forecast BI Output Dunia 3,2 2.9 2.9 2.9 Amerika Serikat 2.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 Eropa -0.6-0.4-0.4-0.6 Jepang 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0 Negara Berkembang 4.9 4.5 5.0 4.7 Negara Berkembang Asia 6.4 6.3 6.6 - China 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.5 India 3.2 3.8 4.6 4.3 ASEAN-5 6.2 5.0 - - Sumber: WEO Okt 2013, Consensus Forecast Des 2013, BI T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 4

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 5

Indeks Indeks Sumber: BPS ITB (sk.kanan) Pendapatann Utilisasi Kapasitas Jam Kerja T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 6

Belanja Modal Belanja Pegawai Belanja Barang Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan, diolah T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 7

kontraksi ekspansi Indeks ISM Manufaktur ISM Jasa-jasa Sumber: Bloomberg Data: Des 2013 Sumber: BPS T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 8

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T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 10

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 11

Saham T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 12

Rp/USD Harian Rata2 Bulanan Negara Berkembang Negara Maju (Eropa) Data: Des 2013 Sumber: Bloomberg T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 13

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%,yoy 7.5 7.0 Ekspektasi Inflasi 2013 Ekspektasi Inflasi 2014 7.30 7.30 7.20 7.00 6.90 7.10 6.5 6.40 6.40 6.30 6.10 6.0 5.80 5.90 5.80 5.60 5.60 5.50 5.5 5.40 5.40 5.30 5.20 5.20 5.30 5.10 5.205.20 5.30 5.40 5.20 5.10 5.20 5.0 5.20 5.10 5.10 5.20 5.00 4.5 6.20 4.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2012 2013 Commodities Dec-13 %,mtm Contribution (%, mtm) Inflation BERAS 0.59 0.03 TELUR AYAM RAS 3.95 0.03 CABE RAWIT 15.52 0.03 TOMAT SAYUR 17.33 0.03 BAYAM 5.61 0.01 MINYAK GORENG 1.08 0.01 TOMAT BUAH 13.32 0.01 DAGING SAPI 0.99 0.01 BAWANG MERAH 1.29 0.01 KEMBUNG/GEMBUNG 2.40 0.01 Deflation CABE MERAH -6.80-0.04 DAGING AYAM RAS -2.16-0.03 JERUK -1.85-0.01 T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 16

Commodities Dec-13 %,mtm Contribution (%, mtm) Inflation BAHAN BAKAR RUMAH TANGGA 2.58 0.07 ROKOK KRETEK 0.75 0.01 ROKOK KRETEK FILTER 0.38 0.01 TARIP KERETA API 7.62 0.01 BENSIN 0.16 0.01 T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 17

8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 % Vol DF O/N (RHS) rbi Rate rdf O/N Avg Vol DF: Rp 108.1 T RRT Vol PUAB : Rp 10.2 T Vol PUAB O/N (RHS) rpuab O/N rpuab : 5.91% 3.5 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Rp T 120 100 80 60 40 20-10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 %, eop PUAB JIBOR O/N 1W 1M O/N 1W 1M 31-Dec-13 29-Nov-13 28-Dec-12 17 15 13 11 Rp T 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 9 7 5 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 18

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Suku Bunga (%) 2012 2013 Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Ags Sep Okt Nov BI Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.50 Penjaminan Deposito 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.75 6.25 6.25 7.00 7.00 7.25 Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang) 5.42 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 5.42 5.53 5.60 5.90 6.19 6.73* 7.10 7.28 Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK) 11.61 11.49 11.49 11.45 11.44 11.44 11.46 11.41 11.66 11.63 11.79 11.93 12.06 Kredit Investasi (KI) 11.24 11.27 11.29 11.27 11.24 11.21 11.17 11.14 11.29 11.37 11.49 11.65 11.73 Kredit Konsumsi (KK) 13.53 13.58 13.40 13.22 13.28 13.22 13.20 13.14 13.06 13.05 13.03 13.08 13.12 15 13 11 9 7 5 % Selisih rkredit - rdepo1: 506bps % 12.34 7.28 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Spread-rhs Sb Kredit Sb Dep 1 bln BI rate Sb LPS T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 19

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 % yoy 39 32 25 18 11 4 per Nov 2013-3 -10 Total KMK KI KK BI Rate (RHS) % 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 20

Indikator 2012 2013 Utama Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt Sep Okt Nov Total Aset (T Rp) 4,103.5 4,262.6 4,211.0 4,237.1 4,313.8 4,367.8 4,418.7 4,461.8 4,510.3 4,581.1 4,737.3 4,717.0 4,817.8 DPK (T Rp) 3,130.5 3,225.2 3,204.5 3,207.3 3,243.1 3,299.4 3,349.7 3,374.4 3,392.9 3,440.2 3,526.2 3,520.9 3,563.4 Kredit * (T Rp) 2,631.0 2,707.9 2,688.1 2,718.7 2,768.4 2,824.2 2,887.5 2,959.1 3,021.1 3,067.4 3,170.8 3,182.9 3,214.4 LDR* (%) 84.0 84.0 83.9 84.8 85.4 85.6 86.2 87.7 89.0 89.2 89.3 89.7 90.2 NPLs Gross* (%) 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 CAR (%) 17.4 17.4 19.2 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.0 18.4 18.6 NIM (%) 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 ROA (%) 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 * tanpa channeling T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 21

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rp triliun 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Total Total Tw I Tw II Tw III Tw IV Total Tw I Tw II Tw III Okt Nov Des Total Non Bank 47.5 123.5 120 13.6 47.3 10.8 37.2 108.9 16.9 53.3 3.1 2.5 5.5 6.4 87.7 Saham 12.4 78 62.8 2.4 5.6 1.8 11.2 21 3.4 24.3 2.3 0.1 0 2.2 32.3 o/w Emiten Sektor Keuangan 6.6 20.6 20.4 0 2.3 0.7 0 3.1 0.3 4.4 0.7 0 0 0 5.3 Obligasi 25.8 34.7 51.3 9.6 41 7.1 20.1 77.7 12.7 27.7 0.3 2.1 4.5 3.3 50.5 o/w Emiten Sektor Keuangan 17.5 27 41.4 8.3 26.2 4.8 14.4 53.7 9.9 13.5 0 2.1 3.3 2.1 30.8 MTN dan Promissory Notes 3.9 10.8 5.9 1.6 0.8 1.9 5.9 10.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 1 0.8 4.9 o/w Emiten Sektor Keuangan 3.2 1.9 1.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 2.1 0.7 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 3.2 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Rp T IPO 2013 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Rp T Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 Obligasi Korporasi T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 22

25 %, yoy % 14 20 12 15 10 10 8 5 6 M2 M1 MB BI Rate (RHS) 0 Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Grafik 2.37 Pertumbuhan Likuiditas Perekonomian 4 T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 23

Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 JCI BI RATE (RHS) % 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Properti Pertanian Perdagangan Konsumsi Aneka Industri Industri Dasar Keuangan Pertambangan Infrastruktur IHSG T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 24

Jan 08 Mar 08 Mei 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Nop 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 Mei 09 Jul 09 Sep 09 Nop 09 Jan 10 Mar 10 Mei 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nop 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 Mei 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nop 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 Mei 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nop 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 Mei 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nop 13 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 Net Beli/Jual (RHS) IHSG 0 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 % 20 Yield SUN 10 Tahun 18 CDS (RHS) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agust Sept Okt Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agust Sept Okt Nov Dec Rp. Trillion 25 Net Foreign Buy/Sell 15 5 (5) (15) (25) (35) Yield SUN (RHS) % 15,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 7,0 5,0 3,0 1,0 2011 2012 2013 T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 26

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 27

SEKTOR KEUANGAN 2012 2013 Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt Sep Okt Nov Des SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1) 4.80 4.84 4.86 4.87 4.89 5.02 5.28 5.52 5.86 6.96 6.97 6.96 - Suku bunga deposito 1 bln 2) 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 5.42 5.53 5.60 5.90 6.19 6.73 7.10 7.28 - Suku bunga deposito 3 bln 2) 5.76 5.89 5.92 5.64 5.73 5.68 5.72 5.99 6.16 6.58 6.95 7.30 - JIBOR satu minggu 2) 4.32 4.30 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.27 4.46 4.93 5.32 5.89 6.09 5.89 - IHSG Indeks 3) 4,317 4,454 4,796 4,941 5,034 5,069 4,819 4,610 4,195 4,316 4,511 4,256 4,274 BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp) Uang Primer 704,843 664,007 655,486 664,935 667,122 681,508 691,678 750,446 713,448 715,662 734,266 750,592 - M1(C+D) 841,721 787,916 786,606 810,112 832,273 822,930 858,557 879,986 855,783 864,637 856,146 866,718 - Uang Kartal (C) 361,967 326,885 321,541 331,226 324,393 334,087 347,204 383,932 359,417 357,001 363,772 372,086 - Uang giral (D) 479,755 461,031 465,065 478,886 507,880 488,843 511,353 496,054 496,365 507,636 492,374 494,632 - Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 3,305,744 3,268,845 3,280,478 3,322,586 3,360,987 3,426,359 3,413,437 3,506,574 3,502,420 3,580,934 3,576,730 3,610,668 - Uang kuasi (T) 2,453,602 2,470,101 2,483,011 2,500,342 2,515,813 2,588,094 2,543,285 2,608,175 2,625,946 2,691,903 2,697,619 2,719,258 - Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) 10,420 10,829 10,861 12,132 12,902 15,335 11,594 18,413 20,691 24,394 22,965 24,692 - Tagihan pada Dunia Usaha - - Kredit-Bank Umum - - Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Uang Beredar 3,307,577 3,268,845 3,280,478 3,322,586 3,360,987 3,426,359 3,413,437 3,506,574 3,502,420 3,584,017 3,576,758 3,614,408 - Aktiva Luar Negeri Bersih 965,442 960,233 937,714 947,362 940,165 935,590 833,821 849,697 879,470 972,110 955,881 987,760 - Aktiva Dalam Negeri Bersih 2,342,135 2,308,612 2,342,764 2,375,225 2,420,822 2,490,768 2,579,616 2,656,876 2,622,950 2,611,907 2,620,877 2,626,648 - Tagihan Bersih kepada Pemerintah Pusat 389,827 378,366 361,337 366,902 341,302 322,822 330,871 377,080 340,332 342,434 337,226 353,434 - Tagihan Kepada Sektor Lainnya 2,917,452 2,894,235 2,924,875 2,973,874 3,028,028 3,109,337 3,180,790 3,235,593 3,285,901 3,382,424 3,387,310 3,454,194 - PERTUMBUHAN BESARAN MONETER (%,YOY) Uang Primer 14.89 11.77 13.22 13.46 11.82 12.65 10.25 18.18 8.43 12.02 13.29 15.84 - M1(C+D) 16.42 13.15 15.13 13.42 15.45 9.80 10.15 14.02 10.79 8.69 10.47 8.15 - Uang Kartal (C) 17.61 14.20 14.79 15.39 11.53 13.34 10.34 21.74 9.89 9.66 11.55 13.76 - Uang giral (D) 15.54 12.42 15.36 12.10 18.09 7.51 10.03 8.68 11.45 8.02 9.69 4.28 - Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 14.89 14.50 15.11 14.10 14.82 14.52 11.87 14.76 13.35 14.53 13.09 12.62 - Uang kuasi (T) 14.66 15.14 15.45 14.54 14.83 16.19 12.77 14.86 13.90 16.05 13.48 13.57 - Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) -27.58-19.24-30.98-17.86-16.49 1.68-30.20 42.38 70.89 112.91 115.83 137.28 - Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Uang Beredar 14.96 14.41 15.02 14.01 14.72 14.42 11.81 14.69 13.29 14.57 13.03 12.67 - Aktiva Luar Negeri Bersih 5.84 2.80-0.47 2.29-2.41-3.66-9.91-9.25-7.98-0.36-3.49-0.14 - Aktiva Dalam Negeri Bersih 19.19 20.05 22.66 19.47 23.12 23.10 21.26 25.26 22.80 21.34 20.55 18.38 - Tagihan Bersih kepada Pemerintah Pusat 11.01 17.43 22.02 23.49 40.38 34.48 16.37 35.13 25.40 14.57 18.00 12.80 - Tagihan Kepada Sektor Lainnya 22.39 21.82 21.64 20.61 20.10 20.13 20.03 21.42 22.01 22.79 21.50 22.05 - H A R G A Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm) 0.54 1.03 0.75 0.63-0.10-0.03 1.03 3.29 1.12-0.35 0.09 0.12 0.55 Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy) 4.30 4.57 5.31 5.90 5.57 5.47 5.90 8.61 8.79 8.40 8.32 8.37 8.38 SEKTOR EKSTERNAL Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah) 9,670 9,698 9,664 9,718 9,723 9,795 9,925 10,278 10,920 11,580 11,273 11,963 12,170 Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4) 12,313 12,386 11,897 12,727 12,480 13,308 11,970 12,874 10,487 12,248 13,143 13,136 - Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4) 11,715 11,660 11,463 10,971 12,813 13,234 12,029 13,327 9,423 11,811 12,320 11,179 - INDIKATOR KUARTALAN 2012 Tw.IV Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy) 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.5 Konsumsi 4.7 4.7 5.9 6.1 Investasi (PMTB) 5.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 Perubahan Stok 16.5-0.6-18.7 Ekspor 3.6 4.8 5.3 6.0 Impor 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.3 1) minggu terakhir 2) rata-rata tertimbang 3) penutupan pada akhir periode 4) closed file Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS Tw.I 2013 Tw.II Tw.III Tw.IV* T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t er 28