SAMUEL MARKET CHARTS Daily Edition, January 11, 2016 PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Menara Imperium, 21 st Floor Jl. HR Rasuna Said Kav.1 Jakarta 12980 Indonesia tel: +62-21 2854 8148 fax: +62-21 8370 1610 email: research@samuel.co.id www.samuel.co.id
Between ST Uptrend and MT Downtrend Executive Summary Market Chartist melihat IHSG saat ini dalam persimpangan antara pergerakan ST Uptrend dan MT Downtrend dimana Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG akan cenderung bergerak MT Downtrend (turun) dalam 1 2 minggu ke depan menuju ~4,480 namun akan naik dalam 1 3 hari ke depan MT Downtrend tersebut sebagai bagian dari Technical Correction, sesuai indikasi Weekly Stoch. Osc namun Market Chartist percaya IHSG masih akan mengalami January Effect Secara umum, semua Risk-Related dan Sub-Sector perlu diwaspadai khusunya FMCG, Media dan Poultry (dari Consumer Related) serta Construction (dari Infrastructure Related) Market Chartist melihat potensi kenaikan di Media dan Healthcare (SILO, BMTR dan MNCN) serta Residential (LPKR, WPON dan SMRA) Saham dalam berita : KLBF, INAF, KAEF, ANTM, ASII, IMAS, TLKM, SOCI, BBTN, BBNI, BBRI, AALI, LSIP, SGRO, PTBA, ADRO, TINS Rekomendasi hari ini : LPKR : Buy TP @ 1,100 PWON : Buy TP @ 500 January 11, 2016 2
Market Matters Multi-Assets Movements, News and Sentiments Rupiah cenderung bergerak Flat mendekati Rp14,000 Bursa global cenderung tutup negatif secara WoW, penurunan pertama di minggu pertama awal 2016 dimana secara umum bursa bursa tersebut membentuk Lower Low yang merupakan ciri khas Downtrend CDS Indonesia cenderung meningkat sejak awal 2016 meski belum setinggi level di Des 15 namun ada kecenderungan tingkat risiko Indonesia menuju ke level tersebut January 11, 2016 3
Balance of Oversold and Overbought MC s Technical Setups Overview Of LQ45 Stocks in Daily Timeframe Number of LQ45 Stocks Market Cap of LQ45 Stocks Oversold Overbought Overbought Related Oversold Related Undershoot Overshoot Sell Related Buy Related Downtrend Related Still Sell Sell Now Warning Sell Still Buy Buy Now Alert Buy New Downtrend Downtrend Uptrend New Uptrend 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Summary Uptrend Related 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% Hal menarik adalah kondisi Overbought yang mengimbangi Oversold ditengah potensi besar untuk mengalami Technical Correction (Sell Related + Uptrend Dominance) Market Chartist melihat kondisi ini adalah persimpangan antara pergerakan ST dan MT dimana belum ada potensi arah yang jelas Meski demikian, Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG masih berpotensi turun dalam bentuk Technical Correction January 11, 2016 4
Following A Weekly Stochastic Oscillator JCI with Double Timeframes of Stochastic Oscillator Meski memberikan sinyal Sell, Daily Stoch. Osc berpotensi segera memasuki Oversold area dan cenderung memberikan sinyal positif dalam jangka pendek namun Market Chartist melihat IHSG akan cenderung bergerak turun mengikuti sinyal Sell dari Weekly Stoch. Osc January 11, 2016 5
Move Technical Correction to ~4,480 JCI with Classic Technical Analysis Method Dengan sedikit merubah High Low Point dari Fibonacci Retracement, potensi Technical Correction normal berkisar di antara ~4,450 s.d ~4,520 Market Chartist perkirakan Technical Correction akan terjadi menuju ~4,480 dalam 1 2 minggu ke depan January 11, 2016 6
Watch Out And Watch Media and Residential Sub-Sector and Risk-Related of LQ45 with MACS Technical Setups LQ45 Risk-Related Sub-Sector Trend SO Sign SO Value % Change ADRO Commodities Related Coal Downtrend Sell Now 11 (1.40) ITMG Commodities Related Coal Downtrend Sell Now 44 (1.29) PTBA Commodities Related Coal Downtrend Sell Now 20 (4.55) UNTR Commodities Related Coal Uptrend Sell Now 38 (2.84) AALI Commodities Related CPO Downtrend Sell Now 59 (2.84) LSIP Commodities Related CPO Downtrend Still Sell 12 (1.19) INCO Commodities Related Mineral Downtrend Alert Buy 14 (2.27) PGAS Commodities Related Oil and Gas Downtrend Sell Now 20 (5.19) ASII Consumer Related Automotive Downtrend Sell Now 53 (0.41) SSMS Consumer Related Automotive Uptrend Still Sell 22 (2.49) GGRM Consumer Related Cigarettes Uptrend Warning Sell 88 0.64 ICBP Consumer Related FMCG Uptrend Warning Sell 98 1.44 INDF Consumer Related FMCG Uptrend Sell Now 89 (2.16) KLBF Consumer Related FMCG Uptrend Warning Sell 93 2.55 UNVR Consumer Related FMCG New Uptrend Sell Now 52 (3.34) SILO Consumer Related Healthcare Downtrend Buy Now 22 (0.53) BMTR Consumer Related Media Uptrend Alert Buy 18 (4.39) MNCN Consumer Related Media Downtrend Buy Now 21 (3.13) SCMA Consumer Related Media Uptrend Sell Now 86 (1.52) CPIN Consumer Related Poultry Uptrend Warning Sell 90 (1.56) LPPF Consumer Related Retail Downtrend Sell Now 21 (5.70) MPPA Consumer Related Retail Uptrend Still Sell 37 (1.99) SRIL Consumer Related Textile Downtrend Alert Buy 29 (4.04) INTP Infrastructure Related Cement New Downtrend Sell Now 19 (5.94) SMGR Infrastructure Related Cement Uptrend Sell Now 43 (4.15) WTON Infrastructure Related Concrete Uptrend Warning Sell 92 3.87 ADHI Infrastructure Related Construction Uptrend Warning Sell 87 3.61 PTPP Infrastructure Related Construction Uptrend Still Buy 90 1.94 WIKA Infrastructure Related Construction Uptrend Sell Now 92 0.18 WSKT Infrastructure Related Construction Uptrend Warning Sell 82 0.89 AKRA Infrastructure Related Oil and Gas Uptrend Buy Now 73 6.27 EXCL Infrastructure Related Telecommunication Downtrend Still Sell 23 (3.94) TBIG Infrastructure Related Telecommunication Downtrend Warning Sell 28 (1.31) TLKM Infrastructure Related Telecommunication Uptrend Still Sell 33 (3.23) JSMR Infrastructure Related Toll Uptrend Sell Now 84 (0.43) BBCA Interest Related Bank Downtrend Alert Buy 7 (1.52) BBNI Interest Related Bank Uptrend Sell Now 42 (0.99) BBRI Interest Related Bank Uptrend Buy Now 60 0.65 BBTN Interest Related Bank Uptrend Sell Now 79 (1.84) BMRI Interest Related Bank Uptrend Still Sell 47 (0.80) ASRI Interest Related Residential Downtrend Sell Now 22 (2.65) BSDE Interest Related Residential Uptrend Sell Now 90 (0.27) LPKR Interest Related Residential Downtrend Buy Now 45 1.47 PWON Interest Related Residential Uptrend Buy Now 36 (1.64) SMRA Interest Related Residential Uptrend Still Buy 46 1.26 Secara umum, semua Risk-Related dan Sub- Sector perlu diwaspadai khusunya FMCG, Media dan Poultry (dari Consumer Related) serta Construction (dari Infrastructure Related) Market Chartist melihat potensi kenaikan di Media dan Healthcare (SILO, BMTR dan MNCN) serta Residential (LPKR, WPON dan SMRA) January 11, 2016 7
Today s Movement Prediction MC s Selection of LQ45 Stocks with MACS Technical Setups Stocks News / Sentiments Today's Prediction Close Short Term Trend Stoch. Osc. Signals Stoch. Osc. Condition Boll. Band. Condition KLBF Rise to 1,410 1,410 Uptrend Warning Sell Overbought Overshoot INAF Asing bisa kuasai perusahaan farmasi hingga 100% Rise to 160 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A KAEF Rise to 916 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A ANTM Berminat garap tambang bekas INCO Rise to 303 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A ASII Penjualan mobil FY15 turun 16% YoY, penurunan terbesar Flat 6,050 Downtrend Sell Now Neutral Neutral IMAS sejak FY13 Flat #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A TLKM Mengincar pinjaman perbankan dan obligasi di 2016 sebesar Rp15T Fall to 3,120 3,145 Uptrend Still Sell Neutral Neutral SOCI Berencana membeli 3-5 kapal baru Fall to 485 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A BBTN Mengincar kenaikan Fee Based Income sebesar 15% di 2016. Optimis laba bersih lampaui target FY16 Fall to 1,320 1,335 Uptrend Sell Now Overbought Neutral BBNI Ingin fokus di KUR Retail Fall to 4,975 5,000 Uptrend Sell Now Neutral Neutral BBRI Memacu kredit mikro di FY16 tumbuh 20% YoY. Berencana terbitkan obligasi Rp6T di 2016 Rise to 11,775 11,600 Uptrend Buy Now Neutral Neutral AALI Fall to 16,110 16,250 Downtrend Sell Now Neutral Neutral LSIP Kebijakan mandatori biodiesel berjalan terus meski harga Flat minyak turun 1,250 Downtrend Still Sell Oversold Neutral SGRO Fall to 1,670 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A PTBA Kaji kenaikan capex menjadi Rp5T di FY16 dari semula Rp3.5T Flat 4,305 Downtrend Sell Now Oversold Neutral ADRO TINS Menurunkan produk batubara di 2016 menjadi 50Jt Ton dari sebelumnya ~54Jt Ton Menargetkan kontribusi pendapatan dari anak usaha di sektor properti di FY16 Flat 493 Downtrend Sell Now Oversold Neutral rise to 479 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A January 11, 2016 8
MC Trading Recommendation Historical List LQ45 Call Action Call Date Open Price at Call Date Prev. Close % Ch Target Price % Upside LPKR Buy 11-Jan-16 New 1,035 New 1,100 6.3% Today LPKR : Buy TP @ 1,100 PWON : Buy TP @ 500 PWON Buy 11-Jan-16 New 479 New 500 4.4% BBNI Repeat Buy 8-Jan-16 5,000 5,000 0.0% 5,300 6.0% WSKT Buy 7-Jan-16 1,680 1,705 1.5% 1,760 3.2% TLKM Sell 6-Jan-16 3,250 3,145 Sell Sell BBNI Buy 6-Jan-16 4,960 5,000 0.8% 5,300 6.0% CPIN Buy 5-Jan-16 2,615 2,845 8.8% 3,200 12.5% TLKM Buy 5-Jan-16 3,125 3,145 0.6% 3,220 2.4% Buy List Buy 1st Call Date Target Price BBNI 6-Jan-16 5,300 CPIN 5-Jan-16 3,200 LPKR 11-Jan-16 1,100 PWON 11-Jan-16 500 WSKT 7-Jan-16 1,760 January 11, 2016 9
LPKR Buy TP @ 1,100 LPKR mengalami Oversold berdasarkan ST Daily Stoch. Osc dan Weekly Stoch. Osc sehingga mengindikasikan Downtrend yang terjadi sejak Des 15 berpotensi berakhir di Support ~1,000 Terindikasi Microscopic Overbought yang memberikan indikasi Buy On Weakness di hari ini dan TP akan sangat mungkin di Upgrade January 11, 2016 10
PWON Buy TP @ 500 PWON membentuk Doji yang mengindikasikan penurunan sejak seminggu lalu berpotensi tertahan dan bentuk tersebut tepat di Middle Band sehingga Market Chartist melihat Uptrend akan terjaga Stoch. Osc memberikan sinyal Buy di Oversold Area sehingga Market Chartist menilai sinyal tersebut akan akurat January 11, 2016 11
Thank You Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe Market Chartist makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 285 48382 (Direct) Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Menara Imperium, 21 st floor Rasuna Said Kav. 1 Jakarta 12980, Indonesia 12