FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Transkripsi

1 International Finding No Available on Website: On January 22, 2012 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE KADIN-Roy Morgan Keyakinan Konsumen sedikit menurun di bulan Desember poin (turun 2.5 poin) Keyakinan Konsumen Indonesia sedikit menurun ke angka (turun 2.5 poin) di bulan Desember. Namun demikian, 2012 tetap berakhir 5.5 poin lebih tinggi dari setahun sebelumnya pada Desember 2011 (146.5). Turunnya ini disebabkan menurunnya keyakinan masyarakat akan keadaan ekonomi Indonesia di masa mendatang, serta menurunnya keyakinan bahwa kini adalah waktu yang tepat untuk membeli peralatan rumah tangga utama. Walaupun tetap merupakan mayoritas yang sangat besar namun kini 90% (turun 2 poin) memperkirakan bahwa perekonomian Indonesia akan mengalami masa yang baik selama lima tahun ke depan, dibandingkan 10% (naik 2 poin) yang memperkirakan perekonomian akan mengalami masa buruk. Dalam hal kondisi ekonomi jangka pendek, kini 80% masyarakat Indonesia (turun 2 poin) mengatakan bahwa Indonesia secara finansial akan mengalami masa yang baik selama jangka waktu 12 bulan ke depan dibandingkan 19% (naik 2 poin) yang mengatakan bahwa secara finansial akan mengalami masa yang buruk. Kini 59% masyarakat (turun 2 poin) menyatakan sekarang adalah waktu yang baik untuk membeli peralatan rumah tangga utama, dibandingkan 37% (naik 3 poin) yang menyatakan sekarang waktu yang buruk untuk membeli peralatan rumah tangga utama. Dalam hal keuangan pribadi, kini 67% masyarakat Indonesia (tidak berubah) memperkirakan bahwa keuangan keluarga mereka akan lebih baik di waktu yang sama tahun depan, dibandingkan hanya 3% (naik 1 poin) yang menyatakan akan lebih buruk. Kini 44% masyarakat (naik 2 poin) mengatakan bahwa keuangan keluarga mereka lebih baik dibandingkan setahun yang lalu, dibandingkan hanya 11% (naik 1 poin) mengatakan keuangan keluarga mereka lebih buruk dibandingkan setahun yang lalu. Suryo Sulisto, Ketua Umum KADIN mengomentari hasil KADIN-Roy Morgan Keyakinan Konsumen yang terbaru: Index menurun sebesar 2.5 poin di bulan Desember. Bila menurunnya ini merupakan cek realitas, masih ada jarak 25 poin sebelum kita perlu panik. Turunnya index ini tak terelakkan, euphoria masyarakat Indonesia tidak mungkin berjalan selamanya. Kita hanya sedang menyesuaikan dengan realitas baru. Masa dimana harga komoditas tinggi kini berakhir. Dampak hilangnya pekerjaan dalam sektor ekspor sudah mulai dirasakan. Tapi kita sudah melewati yang terburuk. Dan ternyata yang terburuk itu tidak terlalu jelek. Dengan index yang masih diatas 150, maka Keyakinan Konsumen Indonesia masih sangat bagus. KADIN-Roy Morgan Tingkat Keyakinan Konsumen didasarkan pada wawancara tatap-muka dengan 2,069 responden, di seluruh Indonesia bukan hanya di beberapa kota besar. Survei ini dilakukan di 21 Kota Besar, 22 Kota kecil dan desa di sekitarnya, yang secara statistik mewakili seluruh Indonesia. Laki-laki dan perempuan umur 14 tahun ke atas dipilih secara random selama bulan Desember Untuk keterangan lebih lanjut: Ira Soekirman: Office Mobile Margin of Error Margin of Error tergantung dari jumlah sampel yang diambil. Tabel di bawah ini menunjukkan jumlah sampel yang bisa menghasilkan tingkat kerpercayaan 95% dengan level minimum Margin of Error nya. Sample Size Percentage Estimate 40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95% 1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4 2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1.0

2 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE KADIN-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down slightly in December points (down 2.5 points) Indonesian Consumer Confidence fell slightly to (down 2.5pts) in December, but still ended pts higher than it was a year ago in December 2011 (146.5). This month s fall was driven by decreasing confidence in future economic conditions in Indonesia and falling confidence that now is a good time to buy major household items. A slightly reduced large majority of Indonesians 90% (down 2%) expect Indonesia will have good times economically over the next five years compared to only 10% (up 2%) that expect bad times economically. In terms of the short term economy, now 80% (down 2%) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have good times financially during the next twelve months compared to 19% (up 2%) that say we ll have bad times financially. Now 59% (down 2%) of Indonesians say now is a good time to buy major household items compared to 37% (up 3%) that say now is a bad time to buy major household items. In terms of personal finances 67% (unchanged) of Indonesians expect their family to be better off financially this time next year compared to only 3% (up 1%) that expect to be worse off financially. Now 44% (up 2%) of Indonesians say their family is better off financially than a year ago compared to just 11% (up 1%) that say their family is worse off financially than a year ago. KADIN Chairman Suryo Sulisto commented on the latest KADIN-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence results: The index went down by 2.5 points in December. If this small dip indicates a reality check, we still have 25 points more to go before we hit the panic-button. The fall was inevitable, the unique euphoria of the Indonesian consumer cannot be expected to continue forever. We are only settling down to a new reality. The days of high commodity prices are over. Job losses in the export sector have already taken their toll. The worst is over. And the worst wasn t too bad. At over the 150-mark, the confidence of the Indonesian consumer remains in a league of its own. The monthly KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,069 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 21 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of December Margin of Error For further information: Ira Soekirman: Office Mobile The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. Sample Size Percentage Estimate 40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95% 1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4 2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1.0

3 KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence ( ) December 2012 (152.0, down 2.5pts) January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December

4 KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence ( ) Year Quarterly KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating January March Quarter April June Quarter July September Quarter October December Quarter Yearly Average Monthly KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5 Results for the KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions ( ) are as follows: Jan- Mar Apr- Jun Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Interviews 5,707 6,376 6,362 6,244 6,393 6,233 6,312 6,297 6,685 6,815 6,729 6,758 Q1 Would you say you and your family are better off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? Over the past year Better off Worse off Question 1 difference Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better off financially or worse off than you are now? Better off Worse off Question 2 difference Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Indonesia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? Good Times Bad Times Question 3 difference Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in Indonesia as a whole, we ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so or we ll have bad times or some good and some bad? Good times Bad times Question 4 difference Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time or a bad time for people to buy major household items? Good time to buy Bad time to buy Question 5 difference KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating *The KADIN-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions. Jul- Sep Oct- Dec

6 Results for the KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions ( ) are as follows: Jan- Mar Apr- Jun Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Interviews 6,596 6,781 6,790 6,777 6,540 6,234 6,269 6,188 6,132 9,196 7,056 6,269 Q1 Would you say you and your family are better off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? Over the past year Better off Worse off Question 1 difference Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better off financially or worse off than you are now? Better off Worse off Question 2 difference Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Indonesia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? Good Times Bad Times Question 3 difference Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in Indonesia as a whole, we ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so or we ll have bad times or some good and some bad? Good times Bad times Question 4 difference Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time or a bad time for people to buy major household items? Good time to buy Bad time to buy Question 5 difference KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating *The KADIN-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions. Jul- Sep Oct- Dec

7 Results for the KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2011) are as follows: 2011 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Interviews 2,090 2,084 2,080 2,059 2,091 2,090 2,062 2,029 2,020 2,091 2,088 2,089 Q1 Would you say you and your family are better off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? Over the past year Better off Worse off Question 1 difference Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better off financially or worse off than you are now? Better off Worse off Question 2 difference Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Indonesia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? Good Times Bad Times Question 3 difference Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in Indonesia as a whole, we ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so or we ll have bad times or some good and some bad? Good times Bad times Question 4 difference Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time or a bad time for people to buy major household items? Good time to buy Bad time to buy Question 5 difference KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating *The KADIN-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

8 Results for the KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2012) are as follows: 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Interviews 2,092 2,106 2,106 2,004 2,107 1,994 1,988 2,095 2,102 2,078 2,069 2,107 Q1 Would you say you and your family are better off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? Over the past year Better off Worse off Question 1 difference Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better off financially or worse off than you are now? Better off Worse off Question 2 difference Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Indonesia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? Good Times Bad Times Question 3 difference Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in Indonesia as a whole, we ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so or we ll have bad times or some good and some bad? Good times Bad times Question 4 difference Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time or a bad time for people to buy major household items? Good time to buy Bad time to buy Question 5 difference KADIN-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating *The KADIN-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.