1.5% Doddy S. Sukadri Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim ( DNPI) Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI. Struktur Negosiasi Global

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1 REDD danredd Plus DalamStruktur NegosiasiGlobal Doddy S. Sukadri Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim ( DNPI) Bogor, 23 Oktober 2009 Outline Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI Struktur Negosiasi Global REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen Pandangan ke depan: REDD dan REDD Plus Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita? 1

2 Skema terjadinya pemanasan global dan perubahan iklim di dunia Some energy is radiated back into space by the earth in the form of infrared waves Some of this outgoing infrared radiation is trapped by the earth s atmosfir and warms it Most of this radiation is absorbed by the Earth and warms it Kegiatan manusia menjadi penyebab utama pemanasan global 2

3 Perkiraan emisi karbon dunia sampai tahun2100 IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) range from 0 to 250 GT / y E = P*A*T where P = Population A = GDP / cap; T = EMI * ENI; EMI = Emission intensity of energy; ENI = Energy intensity of the economy (Energy used per unit of GDP) Selama 650 tahun, emisi karbon tidak pernah setinggi ini 3

4 Konsentrasi karbon di atmosfir dan rata-rata temperatur selama 1000 tahun terakhir Sampai 2030 emisi GRK dunia perlu diturunkan untuk mencapai 450 ppm Global emission per year (Gt CO 2 e) % Perubahan relative dibanding BAU 1, % BAU ppm with overshoot 0 (peak at 510 ppm) Change relative to BAU 2, % Scientists believe that reducing global CO 2 e emissions to the 450 ppm level provides a 40-60% chance of preventing global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius. 2 Business as Usual SOURCE: IPCC, McKinsey & Company Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy,

5 Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim (DNPI) Peraturan Presiden Nomor 46 /2008 ORGANIZATION MANDATES Pengurus HarianDNPI Secretariat Ketua Harian Divisions Mitigation Task Force Members Adaptation Task Force Members Finance Task Force Members Post Kyoto Task Force Members Tech. transfer Task Force Members Scientific based Task Force Members LULUCF Task Force Members Marine Task Force Members Para ketua dan anggota Kelompok Kerja terdiri dari para pihak utama, terdiri dari unsur-unsur Pemerintah, LSM, Swasta, akademisi dan profesional. 5

6 Koordinator kegiatan di bawahsekretariat DNPI Executive Secretary International Cooperation Communication, Information, and Education Research and Capacity Building Clean Development Mechanism Internal Relations and Legal Aspects Finance and Administration Outline Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI Struktur Negosiasi Global REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen Pandangan ke depan: REDD dan REDD Plus Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita? 6

7 COP Berlin Mandate COP Nairobi Work Program COP Montreal MOP1 AWG COP Buenos Aires Program of Work COP Milan A/R CDM COP Geneva Ministerial Declaration COP Kyoto Protocol COP-13 Nusa Dua Indonesia BALI ROADMAP COP Poznan COP Copenhagen AGREED OUTCOME COP New Delhi Declaration COP Marrakesh Accord COP Buenos Aires Plan of Action COP Bonn COP The Hague COP-6 bis 2001 Bonn Agreements Empat jalur negosiasi UNFCCC UNFCCC = UN Framework Convention on Climate Change COP Kyoto Protocol (KP) SBSTA 30 REDD CDM Reform Adaptation Response measures SBI 30 TT and Capacity building Adaptation Response measures AWG-LCA 6 REDD Annex I Commitments Adaptation TT and Capacity building AWG-KP8 Annex I Commitments CDM Reform Response measures Overlapping areas 7

8 Kelompok negara dalam negosiasi perubahan iklim AFRICAN G77+China (132) Umbrella (9) ASIAN LDC (43) WEOG EIT GRULAC AOSIS (48) EU (27) Empat pilar utama visi bersama perubahan iklim Adaptation Shared vision for Mitigation BALI ACTION PLAN Finance cooperative action Technology Transfer 8

9 Visi bersama Outline Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI Struktur Negosiasi Global REDD: Dari Montreal to Copenhagen Pandangan ke depan: REDD dan REDD Plus Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita? 9

10 REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen 2005 Montreal : Proposal PNG dancosta Rica on REDD 2007 Bali Action Plan: Policy approaches and possible incentives 2009 Copenhagen: Decision on the Future of REDD post 2012 Apa itu REDD? Skim insentif yang dikembangkan bagi masyarakat dan negara untuk melindungi hutannya dari kegiatan2 yang akan meningkatkan emisi karbon karena kegiatan deforestasi dan degradasi hutan DEFORESTASI = konversi lahan berhutan menjadi tidak berhutan karena kegiatan manusia DEGRADASI HUTAN = Kerusakan ekosistem hutan akibat hilangnya sebagian tutupan hutan, kerapatan hutan, penurunan kualitas biodiversity DEFORESTASI DAN DEGRADASI HUTAN MENGURANGI KEMAMPUAN HUTAN MENYERAP KARBON DI ATMOSFIR SEHINGGA MENINGKATKAN EFEK GRK 10

11 Mengapa Harus REDD?? REDD, REDD Plus dan Alih Guna Lahan(LULUCF) REDD Conservation SFM ECS Source: Pedroni (2009) in Murdiyarso (2009) 11

12 Outline Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI Struktur Negosiasi Global REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen Pandangan ke depan: REDD dan REDD Plus Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita? REDD Indonesia REDD berpotensi mengurangi emisi karbon sampai 2.3 Gt per tahun sampai 2030 Societal perspective 1, ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1, Large hydro REDD from small holders Water mgmt. & rewetting in peatlands Reforestation REDD timber extraction REDD intensive plantations dryland forest Geothermal 2,000 2,200 2,400 Reduction potential 2 MtCO 2 e per year High efficiency appliances Switching to LEDs Internal combustion engine improvements in passenger cars Including more than 150 levers from forestry, agriculture, peatland, transportation, building and cement industry 1 Societal perspective implies utilizing a 4% discount rate 2. The width of each bar represents the volume of potential reduction. The height of each bar represents the cost to capture each reduction initiative SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve 12

13 Diduga memberikan kontribusi lebih dari 50 % emisi karbon dunia (dari proses dekomposisi) 100% Luas Emisi karbon dari proses dekomposisi Indonesia Neg tropis lainnya 1 Sisanya di dunia Walaupun luasnya hanya 10% dari lahan gambut di dunia, namun lebih 80% emisi karbon dunia dari proses dekomposisi terjadi di wilayah tropis; Dari jumlah tersebut, lebih dari separuhnya terjadi di Indonesia. 1 Malaysia, Papua New Guinea; Democratic Republik of Congo, Brazil 2 Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, USA SOURCE: Hooijer et al 2006; Wetlands International; Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve Emisi lahan gambut disebabkan dekomposisi dan kebakaran lahan yang telah terdegradasi. Pembukaan lahan gambut baru akan meningkatkan emisi karbon dimasa depan ILLUSTRATIVE Pembukaan lahan gambut saat ini Di masa datang??? Decomposition after drainage Peat fire Removal of biomass above ground (logging) Decomposition after drainage Peat fire SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve 13

14 Reducing deforestation and undertaking A/R could potentially turn forestry sector to be the carbon sink by 2030 Preliminary finding Cropland afforestation REDD Intensive plantation - pulpwood REDD Intensive plantation palm oil REDD smallholder agriculture Perspektif sosial 2030 Marginal land afforestation Forest management Reforestation 4 REDD timber extraction ,000 Note: The curve presents an estimate of the maximum potential of all technical GHG abatement measures below EUR 60 per tco2e if each lever was pursued aggressively. It is not a forecast of what role different abatement measures and technologies will play. Assuming a 4% societal discount rate ,100 1,200 Potensi biaya pengurangan emisi MtCO2e per year Sumber:: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve Pengurangan emisi karbon di Indonesia dapat dilakukan dengan biaya relatif murahapabila dilakukan di sektor kehutanan dan lahan gambut 14

15 Possible scenario in forestry sector development ILUSTRASI Historical and future scenario of Indonesian forest area 000 ha Axis Title Chart Title, , Historical deforestation BAU scenario Abatement scenario In a BAU scenario a constant deforestation at 2000 to 2005 levels is assumed In an abatement scenario, a gradual limitation of deforestation and a massive afforestation/ reforestation effort will take place Sumber:: Min. of Forestry Statistics 2000 and 2007; Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve Outline Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI Struktuir Negosiasi Global REDD: Dari Montreal to Copenhagen Pandangan ke depan: REDD dan REDD Plus Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita? 15

16 Usulan beberapa negara untuk komitmenpasca Copenhagen Agreement (EU) 2. Copenhagen Protocol (Developed countries, but USA) 3. Implementing Agreement (USA) 4. Second period of commitment (China, South Africa, India, Brazil dan Saudi Arabia) 5. Legally binding instrument (Brazil and South Africa) 6. COP Decision (India and China) 7. National Schedules (Australia) 16

17 Usulan Indonesia Recognize Bali Action Plan as a framework for Copenhagen Agreed Outcome, including a shared vision that will not only underline long-term stabilization goal but also incorporate the four building blocks (mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology transfer); Recognize the need of contribution of all Parties to the post-2012 framework and will actively participate on the development of appropriate forms of NAMAs and the MRV criteria for the finance and technology support by developed countries Perlunyalima lima kejelasan politis dalam negosiasi perubahan iklimglobal The Annex-1 target for both aggregate and individual numbers Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Commitment and Actions (NAMACs) of the developed countries vs the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) for the developing countries Financing clarity for adaptation and mitigation efforts in developing countries Governance structures for taking care the financing and technology transfer 17

18 Menjelang Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkan kita? Understanding the role of developed and developing countries in tackling the climate change threats Understanding the CO2 emission from inside and outside of forestry sectors, based on scientific arguments (for the medium and long term emission reduction); Understanding REDD and REDD Plus, including pre-requisites conditions, such as MRV and financing scheme. Understanding the policy and strategic options for carbon emission reduction IT IS ONLY FOURTY FIVE DAYS TO GO!! Would there be any change in the climate change policy? 18

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