SAMUEL MARKET CHARTS Daily Edition, February 18, 2016 PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Menara Imperium, 21 st Floor Jl. HR Rasuna Said Kav.1 Jakarta 12980 Indonesia tel: +62-21 2854 8148 fax: +62-21 8370 1610 email: research@samuel.co.id www.samuel.co.id
(Another) Rally Starts Now Executive Summary Saat ini, data teknikal mengindikasikan keseimbangan Supply Demand sehingga masih akan berada dalam Technical Correction namun tetap dalam kondisi Uptrend Market Chartist melihat volume yang signifikan meningkat sehingga memperkirakan IHSG akan segera Breakout dan melanjutkan Uptrend hari ini atau besok Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG akan ditutup di 4,850 di akhir Feb 16 Market Chartist perkirakan Commodities Related akan cenderung mengalami penurunan kecuali UNTR dan SSMS Consumer Related berpotensi naik khususnya Auto (ASII), FMCG (ICBP, INDF dan UNVR, kecuali KLBF), Poultry (CPIN) dan Cigarettes (HMSP, kecuali GGRM) sedangkan Media (SCMA dan MNCN) dan Retail (MPPA, kecuali LPPF) berpeluang melemah paska penguatan signifikan sebelumnya Market Chartist memperkirakan Infrastructure Related seperti Oil&Gas (AKRA), Teleco (TLKM dan TBIG) serta Toll (JSMR) akan naik namun Cement dan Construction masih akan turun Potensi kenaikan untuk Interest Related khususnya Residential masih ada namun memasuki tahap akhir sebelum Overbought dan mengalami Technical Correction. Bank masih memiliki peluang naik Noticeable Buy Signals : HMSP, AKRA, CPIN, ASII, UNVR dan BBNI Rekomendasi hari ini : ASII (Rp7,000) : Buy TP @ 7,300 February 18, 2016 2
Market Matters Multi-Assets Movements Bursa U.S naik tinggi dengan rentang 1.6% s.d 2.2% diikuti oleh bursa Eropa sebesar 2.65% s.d 2.98% USD Index (96.8) berpotensi mengakhiri penguatannya (Technical Rebound) dan Market Chartist perkirakan akan segera melanjutkan trend penurunan hingga kembali mendekati terendah di 95.5 Yuan (6.52) terindikasi bergerak melemah jangka pendek (sampai 6.54) namun masih memiliki potensi penguatan dalam jangka pendek menengah hingga 6.48. Meski demikian, Market Chartist masih perkirakan Yuan akan cenderung melemah dalam jangka menengah hingga ke 6.8 Rupiah (Rp13,500) terlihat masih dalam perlemahan sementara (Technical Rebound pada USDIDR) dan Market Chartist perkirakan perlemahan sementara tersebut akan berakhir di Rp13,600 dimana setelahnya Rupiah berpotensi bergerak dalam trend turun hingga di bawah Rp13,000 Brent (34.9) memiliki potensi besar untuk bergerak Uptrend apabila berhasil Breakout Resistance di 36.1 (High 29 Jan 16) dan Market Chartist perkirakan hal tersebut akan terjadi dan membuat Brent paling memiliki potensi Bullish Reversal setidaknya untuk bergerak ST Uptrend hingga mendekati 42.5. WTI (31.1) masih cenderung Downtrend walaupun terindikasi sedang membentuk Bullish Reversal Pattern (kemungkinan Head and Shoulders) February 18, 2016 3
The Balance of Supply Demand MC s Technical Setups Overview Of LQ45 Stocks in Daily Timeframe Market Cap of LQ45 Stocks Number of LQ45 Stocks Overbought Related Oversold Related Sell Related Buy Related Downtrend Related Uptrend Related 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Oversold Overbought Undershoot Overshoot Still Sell Sell Now Warning Sell Still Buy Buy Now Alert Buy New Downtrend Downtrend Uptrend New Uptrend 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Summary Market Chartist melihat kondisi data teknikal yang cenderung imbang untuk jangka pendek antara potensi kenaikan dan penurunan, dilihat dari Overbought Oversold dan Buy Sell Related Signals Kondisi demikian cukup wajar ditengah fase istirahat dari sebuah trend (Uptrend) dimana ada indikasi Balance of Supply-Demand Market Chartist mengacu kepada data Uptrend yang dominan baik secara Market Cap maupun jumlah saham LQ45 dan perkirakan IHSG masih akan Uptrend, menunggu akhir dari Technical Correction February 18, 2016 4
High Volume Indicates A Start of Rally JCI with Classic Technical Analysis Method Market Chartist perkirakan IHSG akan segera mengakhiri Technical Correction (berpotensi berbentuk Pennant) dan melanjutkan Uptrend hingga menuju 5,000 (target dari Pennant ketika sudah confirmed) Kenaikan volume yang signifikan mengindikasikan akan segera ada pergerakan (yang juga signifikan) yang Market Chartist perkirakan adalah sebuah Breakout dari Pennant tersebut February 18, 2016 5
Go For Consumer Related Sub-Sector and Risk-Related of LQ45 with MC Technical Setups Risk-Related Sub-Sector LQ45 Trend SO Sign SO Value % Change Commodities Related Coal ADRO Uptrend Warning Sell 85 0.81 Commodities Related Coal PTBA Downtrend Still Sell 16 (1.13) Commodities Related Coal UNTR Downtrend Still Buy 25 0.47 Commodities Related CPO AALI Uptrend Sell Now 95 2.49 Commodities Related CPO LSIP Uptrend Sell Now 68 (1.32) Commodities Related CPO SSMS Uptrend Still Buy 74 1.31 Commodities Related Mineral ANTM Uptrend Sell Now 84 - Commodities Related Mineral INCO Uptrend Sell Now 74 (0.69) Commodities Related Oil&Gas PGAS Uptrend Sell Now 77 (0.20) Consumer Related Auto ASII Uptrend Buy Now 57 1.45 Consumer Related Cigarettes GGRM Uptrend Still Buy 95 3.21 Consumer Related Cigarettes HMSP Uptrend Buy Now 21 - Consumer Related FCMG ICBP Uptrend Warning Sell 75 0.98 Consumer Related FCMG INDF Uptrend Alert Buy 14 (0.38) Consumer Related FCMG KLBF Downtrend Sell Now 6 (1.92) Consumer Related FCMG UNVR Uptrend Buy Now 63 0.85 Consumer Related Healthcare SILO Downtrend Buy Now 20 0.57 Consumer Related Media BMTR Downtrend Buy Now 69 8.90 Consumer Related Media MNCN Uptrend Buy Now 70 11.91 Consumer Related Media SCMA Uptrend Buy Now 94 3.08 Consumer Related Poultry CPIN Uptrend Buy Now 35 0.70 Consumer Related Retail LPPF Uptrend Still Buy 55 - Consumer Related Retail MPPA Uptrend Sell Now 60 (2.40) Consumer Related Textile SRIL Uptrend Warning Sell 83 4.40 Infrastructure Related Cement INTP Uptrend Sell Now 63 (0.50) Infrastructure Related Cement SMGR New Downtrend Alert Buy 17 (1.17) Infrastructure Related Construction ADHI Uptrend Alert Buy 73 0.37 Infrastructure Related Construction PTPP New Downtrend Sell Now 35 (1.64) Infrastructure Related Construction WIKA New Downtrend Sell Now 59 (0.73) Infrastructure Related Construction WSKT Uptrend Alert Buy 70 0.52 Infrastructure Related Oil&Gas AKRA New Uptrend Buy Now 10 0.66 Infrastructure Related Tower TBIG Uptrend Still Buy 69 1.63 Infrastructure Related Telecommunication TLKM Uptrend Warning Sell 39 - Infrastructure Related Toll JSMR Downtrend Buy Now 14 0.45 Interest Related Banking BBCA Uptrend Warning Sell 57 - Interest Related Banking BBNI Uptrend Buy Now 68 1.39 Interest Related Banking BBRI Uptrend Warning Sell 79 0.21 Interest Related Banking BBTN Uptrend Still Buy 94 1.95 Interest Related Banking BMRI Uptrend Sell Now 16 (0.51) Interest Related Residential ASRI Uptrend Still Buy 91 9.09 Interest Related Residential BSDE Uptrend Warning Sell 90 1.12 Interest Related Residential LPKR New Uptrend Warning Sell 93 3.43 #N/A #N/A MYRX Uptrend Sell Now 32 (1.84) Interest Related Residential PWON Uptrend Warning Sell 93 2.74 Interest Related Residential SMRA Uptrend Warning Sell 100 0.61 Market Chartist perkirakan Commodities Related akan cenderung mengalami penurunan kecuali UNTR dan SSMS Consumer Related berpotensi naik khususnya Auto (ASII), FMCG (ICBP, INDF dan UNVR, kecuali KLBF), Poultry (CPIN) dan Cigarettes (HMSP, kecuali GGRM) sedangkan Media (SCMA dan MNCN) dan Retail (MPPA, kecuali LPPF) berpeluang melemah paska penguatan signifikan sebelumnya Market Chartist memperkirakan Infrastructure Related seperti Oil&Gas (AKRA), Teleco (TLKM dan TBIG) serta Toll (JSMR) akan naik namun Cement dan Construction masih akan turun Potensi kenaikan untuk Interest Related khususnya Residential masih ada namun memasuki tahap akhir sebelum Overbought dan mengalami Technical Correction. Bank masih memiliki peluang naik Noticeable Buy Signals : HMSP, AKRA, CPIN, ASII, UNVR dan BBNI February 18, 2016 6
MC Trading Recommendation Historical List LQ45 Call Action Call Date Open at Prev. Target % % Ch Call Date Close Price Upside ASII Buy 18-Feb-16 New 7,000 New 7,300 4.3% CPIN Buy 17-Feb-16 3,525 3,600 2.1% 3,760 4.4% TLKM Buy 17-Feb-16 3,320 3,335 0.5% 3,450 3.4% BMRI Repeat Buy 16-Feb-16 9,825 9,700-1.3% 10,200 5.2% SMRA Sell 15-Feb-16 1,650 1,660 Sell 1,600 Sell UNTR Sell 15-Feb-16 16,250 15,925 Sell 18,200 Sell BBRI Buy 11-Feb-16 11,725 11,950 1.9% 12,500 4.6% BMRI Buy 11-Feb-16 9,825 9,700-1.3% 10,200 5.2% SMRA Buy 11-Feb-16 1,500 1,660 10.7% 1,600-3.6% ASII Sell 10-Feb-16 6,750 7,000 Sell 6,800 Sell ASII Upgrade TP 9-Feb-16 6,550 7,000 6.9% 6,800-2.9% BBRI Sell 5-Feb-16 11,625 11,950 Sell 11,400 Sell UNTR Repeat Buy 5-Feb-16 16,575 15,925-3.9% 18,200 14.3% WSKT Sell 5-Feb-16 1,785 1,940 Sell 1,800 Sell ASII Buy 4-Feb-16 6,200 7,000 12.9% 6,500-7.1% BBRI Downgrade TP 4-Feb-16 11,050 11,950 8.1% 11,400-4.6% UNVR Sell 4-Feb-16 38,625 41,350 Sell Sell UNTR Repeat Buy 3-Feb-16 16,500 15,925-3.5% 18,200 14.3% UNVR Repeat Buy 3-Feb-16 37,300 41,350 10.9% 38,500-6.9% ADHI Sell 2-Feb-16 2,545 2,705 Sell 2,600 Sell BBNI Sell 2-Feb-16 4,880 5,475 Sell 5,200 Sell JSMR Sell 2-Feb-16 5,950 5,525 Sell 6,000 Sell BBRI Downgrade TP 1-Feb-16 11,350 11,950 5.3% 11,600-2.9% TBIG Upgrade TP 1-Feb-16 6,200 6,250 0.8% 6,500 4.0% UNTR Buy 1-Feb-16 17,400 15,925-8.5% 18,200 14.3% TBIG Buy 29-Jan-16 5,850 6,250 6.8% 6,100-2.4% UNVR Upgrade TP 28-Jan-16 37,250 41,350 11.0% 38,500-6.9% WSKT Downgrade TP 28-Jan-16 1,735 1,940 11.8% 1,800-7.2% ADHI Repeat Buy 27-Jan-16 2,470 2,705 9.5% 2,600-3.9% WSKT Repeat Buy 27-Jan-16 1,750 1,940 10.9% 1,850-4.6% BBNI Upgrade TP 26-Jan-16 4,980 5,475 9.9% 5,200-5.0% EXCL Out of LQ45 26-Jan-16 3,500 #N/A Out Out UNVR Downgrade TP 26-Jan-16 35,800 41,350 15.5% 36,500-11.7% CPIN Sell 25-Jan-16 3,260 3,600 Sell Sell JSMR Repeat Buy 25-Jan-16 5,725 5,525-3.5% 6,000 8.6% ADHI Repeat Buy 22-Jan-16 2,485 2,705 8.9% 2,600-3.9% EXCL Repeat Buy 22-Jan-16 3,680 #N/A New 4,000 New BBNI Downgrade TP 21-Jan-16 4,875 5,475 12.3% 5,075-7.3% Today ASII (Rp7,000) : Buy TP @ 7,300 Buy List Buy Latest Call 1st Call Latest Target Date Date Price ASII 18-Feb-16 18-Feb-16 7,300 BBCA 10-Feb-16 19-Jan-16 13,600 BBRI 11-Feb-16 11-Feb-16 12,500 BMRI 16-Feb-16 11-Feb-16 10,200 CPIN 17-Feb-16 17-Feb-16 3,760 TBIG 1-Feb-16 29-Jan-16 6,500 TLKM 17-Feb-16 17-Feb-16 3,450 February 18, 2016 7
ASII (Rp7,000) Buy TP @ 7,300 Market Chartist memperkirakan Technical Correction ASII selesai di ~6,700 dan saat ini ASII berpotensi naik hingga level 7,300 dan masih sangat mungkin untuk Uptrend hingga level 7,950 (target target dari Uptrend Channel) Market Chartist percaya ASII dapat Breakout Resistance di 7,150 (High 11 Feb 16) February 18, 2016 8
Thank You Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe Market Chartist makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 285 48382 (Direct) Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Menara Imperium, 21 st floor Rasuna Said Kav. 1 Jakarta 12980, Indonesia 9