LAPORAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER

LAPORAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER Triwulan III 2013 L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 1

L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 2

contracting kontraksi expanding ekspansi Index Indeks 65 60 55 Indeks Keyakinan konsumen ke depan Keyakinan konsumen saat ini 50 ISM ISM Manufaktur Manufacture 45 ISM ISM Jasa-Jasa Services 40 35 Sumber: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Data Date Sept Sept 2013 30 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Data Sept 2013 Sumber: Bloomberg Indeks, PMI = 50 : netral PMI > 50 : ekspansi Indeks, 50 : netral PMI Komposit PMI Non Manufaktur PMI Manufaktur Sumber: Bloomberg PMI < 50 : kontraksi Sumber: Bloomberg Data Sept 2013 > 50 : Ekspansi < 50 : Kontraksi Data Sept 2013 L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 5

Indeks Indeks Indeks Sumber: Bloomberg Data Sept 2013 Produksi Industri PMI Manufaktur (sk. Kanan) Data Ags 2013 Sumber: Bloomberg L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 6

Sumber: Bloomberg L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 7

US$ M 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Neraca Trade Balance Perdagangan Non Oil Nonmigas and Gas Neraca Trade Balance Perdagangan Oil and Migas Gas Neraca Trade Balance Perdagangan Total Saham -3 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 13

Rata-rata IDR/USD harian Rata-rata bulanan Rata-rata triwulan L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 14

Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 80 60 Nilai Tukar (dep (+)/apr (-), %, yoy) Indeks Harga Impor (proksi Imported Inflation, % YOY) *) Inflasi Core Traded (%, yoy), RHS 9.0 8.0 7.0 % 80 Kapasitas Produksi Terpakai Industri Pengolahan (SKDU) 40 6.0 75 5.0 20 4.0 70 0 3.0 2.0 65-20 1.0 60-40 0.0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 *) Indeks komposit harga global dengan weigted average (berdasar prosentase impor dan bobot di IHK) dari komoditas pangan (CPO, gandum, gula, jagung dan kedelai), minyak dunia (WTI), emas, kapas, dan besi. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 16

Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 %,yoy 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 Ekspektasi sebelum kebijakan diberlakukan Administered Prices Ekspektasi Inflasi (SPE 3 bln), RHS Ekspektasi Inflasi SPE 6 bln, RHS Indeks 180 160 140 120 100 80 Sumber: Eurostat, Bloomberg Inf > 8,50% 8,00% < inf 8,50% 6,80% < inf 8,00% Inf 6,80% L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 17

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 11.29 11.27 11.24 11.21 11.17 11.14 11.29 11.37 11.49 11.45 11.44 11.44 11.46 11.41 11.66 11.63 12.11 12.02 12.03 12.00 11.99 11.93 12.05 12.05 13.40 13.22 13.28 13.22 13.20 13.14 13.06 13.05 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 10 9 8 % rpuab O/N rlending rate % rdf O/N rbi Rate 10 9 8 7.5 7.0 6.5 % Vol DF O/N (RHS) rbi Rate rdf O/N Vol PUAB O/N (RHS) rpuab O/N Rp T 120.0 100.0 7 6 5 4 3 7 6 5 4 3 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 Avg Vol DF: Rp 114.2 T RRT Vol PUAB : Rp 10.1 T rpuab : 5.05% 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 3.5 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Okt-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13-15 13 11 9 7 5 % Selisih rkredit - rdepo1: 586bps 6.19 % 12.05 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 % Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Spread-rhs Sb Kredit Sb Dep 1 bln BI rate Sb LPS 11.0 Sb KMK Sb KI Sb KK RRT L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 18

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 - %, yoy DPK (RHS) Giro (Pangsa 23.9%) Tab (Pangsa: 31.9%) Depo (Pangsa 44.2%) Per Agst 2013 25 20 15 10 5-16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 - Kontribusi Pertumbuhan (%) %yoy DPK (%, yoy) RHS Giro (Pangsa 23.9%) Tab (Pangsa: 31.9%) Depo (Pangsa 44.2%) Per Agst 2013 25 20 15 10 5 - L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 19

Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 6000 11 5000 10 4000 9 8 3000 7 2000 6 1000 IHSG JCI BI RATE 5 0 4 World EM ASIA US (Dow Jones) Japan (Nikkei) England (FTSE) India (SENSEX) Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Shanghai (SHCOMP) Strait Times (STI) Kuala Lumpur (KLCI) Philippine Thailand (SET) Vietnam Indonesia (IHSG) -10,4% -4,2% -4,7% -0,1% -0,3% 5,8% 4,1% 1,5% 5,7% 4,0% 0,6% 2,4% 9,9% 9,9% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 20

Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 6.000 25,0 20,0 5.000 15,0 4.000 10,0 5,0 3.000 - (5,0) 2.000 (10,0) 1.000 (15,0) Net Beli/Jual (RHS) IHSG (20,0) 0 (25,0) Property Properti Agriculture Pertanian Perdagangan Trade Consumption Konsumsi Aneka Industri Misc. Industry Industri Dasar Basic Industry Keuangan Finance Pertambangan Mining Infrastruktur Infrastructure IHSG IHSG -20,5% -13,8% -11,8% -9,9% -6,9% -19,8% -7,8% Quarterly Changes -8,6% -10,4% 0,8% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 21

11,00 10,50 10,00 9,50 9,00 8,50 8,00 7,50 7,00 6,50 6,00 Spread (bps) - RHS 30-Jun-13 30-Sep-13 BI RATE % bps 160,0 BI RATE 140,0 120,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 Sumber: Bloomberg, data eop 0,0 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y Indikator 2012 2013 Utama Sep Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt Total Aset (T Rp) 4,009.4 4,262.6 4,211.0 4,237.1 4,313.8 4,367.8 4,418.7 4,461.8 4,510.3 4,581.1 DPK (T Rp) 3,050.0 3,225.2 3,204.5 3,207.3 3,243.1 3,299.4 3,349.7 3,374.4 3,392.9 3,440.2 Kredit * (T Rp) 2,555.9 2,707.9 2,688.1 2,718.7 2,768.4 2,824.2 2,887.5 2,959.1 3,021.1 3,067.4 LDR* (%) 83.8 84.0 83.9 84.8 85.4 85.6 86.2 87.7 89.0 89.2 NPLs Gross* (%) 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 CAR (%) 17.4 17.4 19.2 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.0 18.0 17.9 NIM (%) 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 ROA (%) 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 * tanpa channeling L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r 22