13 Februari 01 ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report RESEARCH Data Pasar Hari Kerja Sebelumnya Perubahan Tingkat Suku Bunga dan Kurs Acuan BI Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Mata Uang Utama Dunia Keterangan Hari Ini Perubahan Rate dan Kurs (%) Keterangan Harga (%, IDR) (H 1) (M 1) (B 1) Hari Ini (H 1) (M 1) (B 1) BI Rate 7.50 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% SGD/IDR 9,553.1 0.39% 0.95%.03% JISDOR 1,115.00 0.8% 0.7% 0.67% AUD/IDR 10,938.07 0.%.31%.73% EUR/IDR 16,8.55 0.56% 0.7% 1.89% Suku Bunga Pinjaman JPY/IDR 117.98 0.38% 1.75% 3.86% Rupiah 1.85 0.5% 0.% 0.35% GBP/IDR 19,973.77 0.10%.01%.39% Dollar AS 5.7 0.00% 0.01% 0.5% HKD/IDR 1,558.7 0.56% 0.81%.10% CHF/IDR 13,60.01 0.5% 0.17%.65% Rata rata Suku Bunga Deposito CNY/IDR 1,993.07 0.63% 0.85% 1.91% 1 Bulan 6.69 0.5% 0.5% 0.71% USD/IDR 1,085.00 0.58% 0.81%.11% 3 Bulan 6.81 0.7% 0.65% 1.60% 6 Bulan 6.80.19% 0.6%.66% Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Utama Dunia terhadap Dollar AS 1 Tahun 6.9 0.11% 1.07% 1.03% Keterangan Harga Tahun 6.33 0.00% 1.8% 1.39% Hari Ini (H 1) (M 1) (B 1) EUR/USD 1.36 0.01% 0.78% 0.3% IDR JIBOR JPY/USD 10.3 0.19% 0.97% 1.68% Keterangan Hari Ini Perubahan Rate (%) HKD/USD 7.76 0.01% 0.08% 0.0% (%) (H 1) (M 1) (B 1) SGD/USD 1.7 0.19% 0.% 0.06% O/N 5.88 0.0% 0.16% 0.1% AUD/USD 0.91 0.15% 1.59% 0.6% 1 Minggu 6.50 0.00% 0.01% 1.56% CNY/USD 6.06 0.05% 0.03% 0.19% 1 Bulan 7.80 0.06% 0.15% 3.7% GBP/USD 1.65 0.6% 1.3% 0.6% 3 Bulan 7.99 0.03% 0.0% 1.31% CHF/USD 0.90 0.06% 0.6% 0.5% 6 Bulan 8.1 0.03% 0.05% 1.3% 1 Tahun 8.8 0.00% 0.6% 0.71% Indeks Bursa Global Harga Komoditas Utama Global Keterangan Indeks Perubahan Indeks (%) Keterangan Harga Hari Ini (H 1) (M 1) (B 1) Hari Ini (H 1) (M 1) (B 1) IHSG,96.9 0.58%.55% 5.67% Minyak dan Gas LQ5 756.8 0.55% 3.03% 6.30% Minyak NYMEX 100.6 0.68% 3.33% 8.5% FTSI 3,035.5 0.1%.55% 3.5% Minyak Brent 108.99 0.9%.58%.3% KLCI 1,85.6 0.08%.3% 0.05% Gas NYMEX.933.6% 1.93%.68% Hangseng,85.79 1.7%.78%.5% Bahan Tambang NIKKEI 1,800.06 0.56%.37% 6.99% Emas Spot 187.3 0.3%.3% 3.11% SHANGHAI,109.96 0.30% 3.78%.80% Perak Spot 0.065 0.17% 1.57% 0.% Dow Jones 15,99.77 1.% 3.56%.7% Platina Spot 1396.8 0.58% 1.1%.83% S&P 1,819.75 1.11% 3.68% 1.00% Hasil Bumi FTSE100 6,69.33 0.3% 3.66% 0.68% Jagung CBOT 0.5 0.3% 0.6% 1.79% Gandum CBOT 591 0.13% 0.60% 3.87% Kedelai CBOT 1333.5 0.11% 1.9%.8% Kopi ICE 139.5 0.1%.03% 13.30% Gula ICE 15.76 0.19% 3.79% 0.5% Kapas ICE 89.15 0.06% 3.57% 7.75% CPO Rotterdam 880 0.00%.03%.03% CPO Malaysia 597 0.00%.63% 3.9% INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI 1Q13 Q13 3Q13 Q13 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Riil PDB (YoY) 6.05 5.83 5.6 5.7 Konsumsi Swasta 5. 5.15 5.8 5.5 Konsumsi Pemerintah 0..13 8.99 6.5 Investasi (GFCF) 5.5.5 5.9.37 Inflasi Inflasi (CPI/YoY).57 5.31 5.90 5.57 5.7 5.90 8.61 8.79 8.0 8.3 8.37 8.38 8. Inflasi (CPI/MoM) 1.03 0.75 0.63-0.10-0.03 1.03 3.9 1.1-0.35 0.09 0.1 0.55 1.07 Konsumsi Penjualan Motor (Unit) 66,08 69,3 665,33 658,673 6,668 659,50 70,3 88,983 675,90 71,6 687,39 551,83 Penjualan Mobil (Unit) 96,718 103,79 95,996 10,57 99,697 10,68 11,178 77,96 115,973 11,039 111,81 97,69 Indeks Kepercayaan Konsumen 116.0 116.80 116.80 113.0 11.80 117.10 108.60 107.80 107.10 109.50 11.30 116.50 Perdagangan Luar Negri Neraca Berjalan (USD juta) -7.70-97.70 137.50-1,70.60-57.10-877.0 -,39.10 71.60-803.00.30 789.30 1,55.10 Ekspor (YoY) -1.30 -.30-1.90-8.70 -.10 -.0-6.0-6.90-7.50.0 -.30 10.30 Impor (YoY) 6.15 3.00-8.81 -.80 -.1-6.53 6.50-5.80 1.05-8.91-10.5-0.79 Cadangan Cadangan Devisa (USD miliar) 108.78 105.18 10.80 107.7 105.15 98.10 9.67 93.00 95.68 97.00 96.96 99.39 100.65 Jumlah Cad. Int'l Bersih (IDR triliun) 101.36 983.19 985.39 1009.6 997. 90.33 917.35 978.56 1071.0 1051.19 1119.80 1169.69 Moneter (YoY) M1 Uang Beredar 13.15 15.13 13. 15. 9.80 10.15 1.03 10.80 9.08 10.8 8.6 5.0 M Uang Beredar 1.1 15.0 1.01 1.7 1. 11.81 1.69 13.9 1.57 13.0 1.68 1.70 Sektor Keuangan BI rate (% p.a.) 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.5 7.5 7.50 7.50 7.5 SUN 10 tahun (%) 5.33 5.35 5.57 5.50 5.98 7.13 7.83 8. 8.50 7.7 8.66 8.5 9.031 Nilai Tukar (IDR/USD, akhir periode) 9,696 9,66 9,70 9,73 9,795 9,95 10,78 11,93 11,518 11,80 11,755 1,171 1,13 Sumber: Bloomberg & CEIC Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities: www.bnisecurities.co.id 1
Data Pasar Hari Kerja Sebelumnya Perubahan Imbal Hasil SUN Seri FR Keterangan Imbal Hasil (%) Hari Ini (H 1) (M 1) (B 1) 1 Tahun 6.67 7.1 7.6 6.98 Tahun 7.0 7.8 7.55 7.9 3 Tahun 7.61 7.76 7.75 8.03 Tahun 7.90 8.01 8.10 8.0 5 Tahun 7.98 8.00 8.09 8. 6 Tahun 8.38 8.8 8.60 8.39 7 Tahun 8.57 8.6 8.70 8.51 8 Tahun 8.70 8.79 8.86 8.6 9 Tahun 8.85 8.99 9.06 8.78 10 Tahun 8.8 8.97 9.07 8.80 15 Tahun 9.36 9.8 9.60 9.33 0 Tahun 9.1 9.5 9.67 9.1 30 Tahun 9.59 9.71 9.83 9.56 1.00 10.00 8.00 6.00.00.00 0.00 Kurva Imbal Hasil SUN Seri FR Hari Ini (B 1) Harga SUN Seri FR Pemerintah per 1 Feb 1 Rentang Harga dan Yield Wajar Kode SUN Kupon Harga Imbal Rentang Harga Wajar Rentang Yield Wajar Durasi Durasi Sisa Waktu Hasil Batas Atas Batas Bawah Batas Bawah Batas Atas Modifikasi Waktu Jt.Tempo FR0051 11.5% 101.31 5.7% 10. 100.95 1.37% 7.15% 0.5 0. 0.5 15 May 1 FR006 11.00% 10.7 6.7% 103.71 10.8 5.3% 7.39% 0.6 0.6 0.67 15 Oct 1 FR007 9.50% 10.85 7.1% 103.08 101.70 7.0% 8.11% 1.7 1. 1.33 15 Jun 15 FR0030 10.75% 106.61 7.9% 107.7 105.97 6.96% 7.79%.0 1.9.5 15 May 16 FR0055 7.38% 99.51 7.58% 99.06 98.09 7.78% 8.1%.3..58 15 Sep 16 FR0060 6.5% 95.89 7.73% 95.91 9.0 7.73% 8.9%.85.75 3.16 15 Apr 17 FR008 10.00% 106.50 7.79% 106.71 105.36 7.7% 8.17%.97.86 3.1 15 Jul 17 FR0066 5.5% 90.7 7.85% 90.86 88.80 7.8% 8.% 3.79 3.6.5 15 May 18 FR003 15.00% 15.77 7.96% 16.90 1.1 7.69% 8.35% 3.8 3.3.1 15 Jul 18 FR0038 11.60% 113.9 7.98% 113.13 110.5 8.06% 8.7% 3.51 3.38.50 15 Aug 18 FR008 9.00% 103.7 8.01% 103.89 101.6 7.97% 8.66% 3.73 3.59.58 15 Sep 18 FR0069 7.88% 99.90 7.90% 99.0 98.8 8.06% 8.%.3.07 5.16 15 Apr 19 FR0036 11.50% 11.09 8.9% 115.00 113.13 8.10% 8.9%.19.0 5.58 15 Sep 19 FR0031 11.00% 11.66 8.9% 11.6 110.8 8.50% 8.90%.9.73 6.75 15 Nov 0 FR003 1.80% 1.37 8.6% 11.8 117.61 8.76% 9.1% 5.1.91 7.33 15 Jun 1 FR0053 8.5% 97.6 8.69% 96.95 93.91 8.8% 9.1% 5.63 5.0 7.1 15 Jul 1 FR0061 7.00% 89.75 8.77% 89.9 86.33 8.85% 9.% 6.17 5.91 8.5 15 May FR0035 1.90% 13.17 8.90% 1.18 11.55 8.75% 9.1% 5.56 5.3 8.33 15 Jun FR003 10.5% 107.68 8.93% 109.90 105.8 8.57% 9.3% 5.89 5.6 8.1 15 Jul FR0063 5.63% 80.33 8.77% 80.8 78.7 8.68% 9.07% 6.95 6.66 9.5 15 May 3 FR006 9.50% 103.5 8.93% 103.99 99.67 8.86% 9.55% 6. 6.16 9.1 15 Jul 3 FR0039 11.75% 117.93 8.91% 10.03 115.0 8.6% 9.8% 5.97 5.71 9.50 15 Aug 3 FR0070 8.38% 97.5 8.76% 97.19 95.8 8.80% 9.01% 6.7 6.3 10.08 15 Mar FR00 10.00% 105.85 9.1% 107.01 10.38 8.96% 9.63% 6.6 6.33 10.58 15 Sep FR000 11.00% 11.5 9.3% 11.56 109.57 8.95% 9.61% 6.8 6.5 11.58 15 Sep 5 FR0037 1.00% 10.1 9.6% 1.3 116.71 9.01% 9.67% 7.00 6.69 1.58 15 Sep 6 FR0056 8.38% 93.8 9.9% 95.0 9.5 9.0% 9.0% 7.55 7. 1.58 15 Sep 6 FR0059 7.00% 8.39 9.3% 83.50 80.05 9.17% 9.70% 8.18 7.8 13.5 15 May 7 FR00 10.5% 106. 9.39% 107.1 101.78 9.31% 10.00% 7.70 7.35 13.1 15 Jul 7 FR007 10.00% 10.79 9.38% 96.05 90.69 10.55% 11.3% 7.60 7.6 1.00 15 Feb 8 FR006 6.13% 7.91 9.3% 76.79 7.31 9.06% 9.% 8.7 8.35 1.5 15 May 8 FR0071 9.00% 97.51 9.31% 97.0 95. 9.37% 9.60% 8.1 7.77 15.08 15 Mar 9 FR005 10.50% 109.09 9.0% 108.65 10.79 9.5% 10.15% 8.1 7.75 16.50 15 Aug 30 FR005 9.50% 100.6 9.% 100.7 97.1 9.% 9.81% 8.80 8.0 17.1 15 Jul 31 FR0058 8.5% 89.88 9.% 91.11 87.6 9.6% 9.75% 9.16 8.75 18.33 15 Jun 3 FR0065 6.63% 75.3 9.1% 77.0 7.37 9.19% 9.56% 9.69 9.6 19.5 15 May 33 FR0068 8.38% 91.1 9.35% 90.1 89. 9.5% 9.57% 9.5 8.8 0.08 15 Mar 3 FR005 9.75% 101.9 9.5% 106.31 99.95 9.09% 9.75% 9.7 9.0 3.5 15 May 37 FR0050 10.50% 108.5 9.60% 113.55 106.70 9.11% 9.77% 9.61 9.17.1 15 Jul 38 FR0057 9.50% 99.6 9.53% 101.77 96.6 9.3% 9.86% 9.89 9. 7.5 15 May 1 FR006 6.38% 69.5 9.9% 71.61 67.1 9.1% 9.83% 10.53 10.05 8.16 15 Apr FR0067 8.75% 91.6 9.61% 9.1 90.0 9.55% 9.7% 9.90 9.5 30.00 15 Feb Source: Bloomberg, BNIS Calculation
Laporan Harian Ekonomi & Pasar Utang - 13 Februari 01 BERITA * Presiden Yudhoyono akan segera melantik Menteri Perdagangan baru, M. Lutfi, menggantikan posisi Gita Wirjawan yang mengundurkan diri beberapa waktu yang lalu, pelantikan tersebut rencananya akan dilaksanakan hari Jumat (1/). M. Lutfi menyatakan bahwa dia akan fokus dalam upaya stabilisasi harga dan peningkatan ekspor yang dibarengi dengan upaya negosiasi perdagangan dengan negara-negara maju ntuk mencapai hasil maksimal hingga berakhirnya masa tugas kabinet pada bulan Oktober nanti. * Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) menargetkan serapan investasi sektor manufaktur oleh Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) hingga mencapai 60% dari target PMA pada tahun 01 ini dibandingkan serapan investasi pada sektor manufaktur tahun 013 sebanyak 50% dari total investasi PMA. * Anggaran Pemerintah selama bulan Januari mengalami defisit IDR 5.3 triliun dimana angka tersebut sesuai dengan perencanaan Kementerian Keuangan yang menerapkan strategi front loading yang menumpuk defisit anggaran di awal tahun tahun. * Bank of England (BOE), Rabu (1/), menaikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris tahun 01 hingga mencpaai 3.% dibandingkan dengan proyeksi sebelumnya sebesar.8%. 10 Perbandingan Yield Obligasi 10Y IDR Vs. USD 1 Perbandingan Yield Obligasi 30Y IDR Vs. USD 8 10 6 IDR 10Y USD 10Y 8 6 IDR 30Y USD 30Y 0 1 Nov 13 Dec 13 6 Dec 13 17 Jan 1 8 Feb 1 0 1 Nov 13 Dec 13 6 Dec 13 17 Jan 1 8 Feb 1 Persentase Perubahan Harga Obligasi Global 10 Tahun Perubahan NDF Keterangan Harga Keterangan Rate Rate (bps) Hari Ini (H 1) (M 1) (B 1) Hari Ini (bps) (H 1) (M 1) (B 1) Brazil 9.95 0.00% 0.% 0.8% NDF 1 Bulan 11,978 1,005 1,080 11,915 Rusia 9.1 0.17% 0.3% 1.0% India 100.36 0.1% 0.1% 0.07% NDF 3 Bulan 1,13 1,155 1,15 1,095 Indonesia 97.5 1.08% 1.78% 0.07% China 96.98 0.10% 0.% 1.06% NDF 6 Bulan 1,338 1,365 1,50 1,375 Turki 93.33 0.07% 0.5% 0.63% Malaysia 9. 0.07% 0.13% 0.65% NDF 1 Bulan 1,803 1,833 1,935 1,88 Filipina 157.5 0.07% 0.55%.99% Persentase Perubahan Harga Obligasi Global 10 Tahun Keterangan Harga Hari Ini (H 1) (M 1) (B 1) USA 100.08 0.1% 0.61% 1.0% UK 95.53 0.38% 0.83% 0.78% Prancis 99.7 0.03% 0.9%.0% Jerman 103.51 0.07% 0.9%.11% Jepang* 0.61 0.33% 1.68% 13.0% Korea Selatan 99.99 0.19% 0.05% 1.1% Singapura 10.66 0.% 0.31% 0.6% *Angka dalam persentase imbal hasil Kepemilikan SBN yang Dapat Diperdagangkan per 8 Januari 01 (dalam triliun Rupiah) Holders Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-13 6-Feb-1 7-Feb-1 10-Feb-1 Bank 309.93 315.89 98.7 306.6 317.3 91.93 333.7 39.66 3.35 356.31 335.3 357.56 353.39 359. 361.89 Bank Indonesia.6.86 19.19.81 5.66 66.95 38.0 5.17 8.5 30.53. 9.7 3.83 3.60 30.08 Reksadana 3.0 1.91 1.6 1.5 39.63 0.0 0.06 0.3 1.08.37.50 3.5 3.68.0.0 Asuransi 117. 10.78 11.88 17.17 16.33 15.09 1.69 17.8 18.8 19.97 19.55 13.93 133. 136. 136.75 Investor Asing 81.63 80.75 98.7 30.9 83.53 85.77 8.01 9.1 318.11 3.0 33.83 38.65 39.19 331.88 331.86 Dana Pensiun 7.55 7.61 7.53 8.6 9.06 33.71 37.65 38.59 38.67 39.67 39.7 0.00 0.05 0.1 0.13 Sekuritas 1.18 1.0 0.77 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.10 1.05 0.8 1.3 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.9 0.8 Individu 30.9 7.56 6.6 5.9 5.01 5.17 3.3 1.1 1.36 3.5 3.8 31.61 31.59 31.7 31.35 Lainnya 0.7 1.1 0. 0.8 0.93..39.81.93 6.5 6.69 7.88 7.76 9.87 9.8 Total 856.39 861.5 87.9 895.77 888.51 91.03 97.07 9.86 98.05 1,003.3 995.5 1,01.76 1,01.76 1,06.76 1,06.76 Sumber: DJPU Kemenkeu 3
Laporan Harian Ekonomi & Pasar Utang - 13 Februari 01 MACRO & DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Research Division : +6 1 55396 Fax No : +6 1 5793588 E-mail : research@bnisecurities.co.id Norico Gaman ext. 393 norico@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Research Heru Irvansyah ext. 030 heru.irvansyah@bnisecurities.co.id Economist Venia Allani Meissalina ext. 050 venia.allani@bnisecurities.co.id Research Assistant FIXED INCOME TEAM Fixed Income Division : +6 1 55396 Fax No : +6 1 5793693 E-mail : fi@bnisecurities.co.id Robitirtanto ext. 3991 robi@bnisecurities.co.id Fixed Income Division Head (PJS) Andilla Rusnadi ext. 3911 andilla@bnisecurities.co.id Fixed Income Sales Bambang Adhitya P. ext. 395 bambang.adhitya@bnisecurities.co.id Fixed Income Sales Meili Anggraini ext. 3989 meili.anggraini@bnisecurities.co.id Fixed Income Sales
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