PERENCANAAN KEUANGAN

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1 Bahan kuliah sesi 3 Mata Kuliah: Manajemen Keuangan - MM UMB Dosen : Matrodji Mustafa Ph.D. PERENCANAAN KEUANGAN Langkah-langkah yang diperlukan untuk membuat proyeksi kebutuhan dana: 1. Membuat proyeksi penjualan karena anggaran yang lain mengacu kepada proyeksi penjualan. 2. Membuat proyeksi biaya-biaya yang besarnya tergantung pada besarnya sales 3. Menaksir jumlah investasi yang diperlukan untuk mendukung jumlah penjualan yang diproyeksikan 4. Menghitung kebutuhan dananya Proforma atau projected financial statements (neraca dan laporan rugi-laba) dibuat oleh financial manager dan digunakan untuk (1) mengevaluasi bagaimana kondisi financial perusahaan dimasa datang, (2) membuat taksiran tambahan dana yang diperlukan, (3) melihat dampak dari berbagai alternatip tindakan atas kondisi keuangan perusahaan, dan (4) mengevaluasi kinerja (performance) dengan membandingkan antara actual dan projeksi. Financial Statement Forecasting dengan Percent of Sales Method Hasil forecasting sales dijadikan dasar untuk membuat forecasting neraca (balance sheet) dan income statement. Langkah pertama adalah menganalisa historical ratio. Didalam metode percent of sales, berbagai pos biaya, aktiva, dan hutang untuk tahun yang akan datang diestimasi atas dasar sekian percent dari sales Table 1 PERCENT OF SALES METHOD Dec 31, Percent of Sales Sales 2006 = $ 20,000 Projected Sales 2007 = $24,000 Assets -Current assets $ % $ Fixed assets % 4800 Total assets Liabilities and Equity -Current liabilities % Long-term debt 2500 n.a*) 2500 Total liabilities Common stocks 100 n.a*) 100 Capital surplus 200 n.a*) 200 Retained earnings Total equity Total liabilities & Equity Catatan: *) pos-pos ini tidak bervariasi langsung dengan variasi sales External financing needed = projected total assets projected (liabilities and equity) = = 80 Projected net income = 5% of sales. Cash dividend paid = 40% of net income. Projected retained earnings = %(24) 40%(5% x 24) = 1920 External funds needed = Required increase in assets Spontaneous increase in liabilities Increase in retained earnings The $80 external financing dapat diperoleh dengan menerbitkan notes payable, bonds, or stocks, singly or in combination.

2 Contoh lain: Percentage of Sales Table Percent of 2006 Sales 2007 Projection Net sales $ % $ 750 Cost of goods sold Selling and Adm expenses EBIT Interest expenses 8 n.a. 8 EBT 40 n.a. 64 Taxes (50%) 20 n.a. 32 Net Income 20 n.a. 32 Dividend (payout 40%) 8 n.a. 8 Addition to retained earnings 12 n.a. 24 Table 3 Balance Sheet 2006 Percent of 2007 Pro forma 2006 Sales Projection Cash $ % $ $ 15 Receivables Inventories Total current assets Net fixed assets Total assets Account payables Notes payables (8%) 10 n.a Accrued wages and taxes Total current liabilities 75 n.a Mortgage bonds (10%) 72 n.a Common stock 150 n.a Retained earnings 48 n.a = Total claims 345 n.a External funds needed = = 116 Constraints facing the company to raise external financing: The company has a contractual agreement with its bondholders to keep total debt at or below 50% of total assets, and to keep the current ratio at a level of 2.5 x or greater: Thus: Maximum debt permitted = 50% x total assets = 50% x 518 = 259 Debt already projected for Dec 31, 2007 = Current Liab + Bonds = = 180 Maximum additional debt = = 79 Maximum current liabilities = Projected current assets / 2.5 = 293/2.5 = 117 Current liabilities already projected = 108. Thus, maximum additional current liabilities = = 9 Common equity requirements = External funds needed maximum debt permitted = = 37 2

3 Contoh Proyeksi Laporan Keuangan Table 4 Projected Balance Sheet Forecast (1+Sales growth) Projected AFN Pro Forma Cash $ 10 x 1.10 $ $ 11 Receivables 375 x Inventories 615 x Total current assets Net fixed assets 1000 x Total assets Account payables 60 x Notes payables (8%) Accrued wages and taxes 140 x Total current liabilities Long-term bonds Total debt Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings 766 +$ Total common equity Total claims Table 5 Projected Income Statement Actual Forecast Basis 1998 Forecast 1997 Net sales $ 3000 x 1.10 $ 3300 Costs except depreciation 2616 x Depreciation 100 x Total operating costs EBIT Less interest expenses EBT Tax 40% Net Income before preferred dividend Dividend to preferred Net income available to common Dividend to common Additional to retained earnings Table 6 Projected AFN and Key Ratios Actual Forecast Industry Average AFN (Additional Funds Needed) $ 112 Current ratio Inventory turn over Receivable Collection period Total assets turnover Debt ratio 53.2% 51.8% 40.0% Profit margin 3.8% 4.0% 5.0% Return on assets 5.7% 6.0% 9.0% Return on equity 12.7% 12.8% 15.0% 3

4 More About Financial Planning Model Dengan Percentage of Sales Dalam model ini sales tumbuh sebesar 20% per tahun selama 5 tahun. Total sources of funds = Operating cashflow + New issues of debt + New issues of equity Total Uses of funds = Investment in NWC + Investment in FA + Dividends paid External Financing Required = Operating CashFlow Investment in NWC Investment in Fixed Assets Dividends paid Tabel 7. Neraca Current Assets Currrent Liabilities Cash & Securities Accounts payable Receivables Debt due within 1 yr Inventory Total current liab Total current assets Fixed Assets Long-term debt Property, Plant, and Equip Less: Acc Depr Shareholders equity Net Fixed Assets Total Assets Total Liab. & Equity Tabel 8. Laporan Rugi/Laba The 2002 Income Statement Sources and Uses of Funds (millions) Sales $ 2200 Sources Costs 1980 Net Income $ 74.5 Depreciation 53.3 Depreciation 53.3 EBIT Operating cash inflows Interest 42.5 Issues of long-term debt 25.0 Tax 49.7 Issues of equity 00.0 Net Income 74.5 Total sources Dividends 43.8 Uses Retained Earnings 30.7 Invest in NWC ( ) 38.5 EPS 5.26 Invest in FA ( ) 70.5 Dividend per share 3.09 Dividends 43.8 Total uses Tabel 9. Proyeksi Operating Cash Flows Revenues (20% increase) 2,200 2,640 5,474 Costs (90% of revenues) 1,980 2,376 4,927 Depr (10% of starting FA) EBIT Interest (10% of starting Debt) Pretax profit Tax (40% of pretax profit) Net Income Operating Cash Flows Tabel 10. Proyeksi NWC dan Fixed Assets Net working cap (20%of Rev) ,095 Net Fixed Assets (25%ofRev) ,369 Total Net Assets 990 1,188 2,463 Long-term debt ,651 Equity Total LT Liab + Equity 990 1,188 2,463 4

5 Tabel 11. Proyeksi External Financing Required Increase in Net Working Cap Investment in Fixed Assets Dividend(60% of Net Income) Total uses of funds External Capital Required = Total Uses of Funds Operating Cash Flow Internal growth rate = (Add to retained earnings/ni) x (NI/Equity) x (Equity/Net Assets) = 0.40 x x = or 3.98% Sustainable growth rate = retention rate x ROE = or 7.29% External Financing and Growth Internal growth rate = the maximum growth rate a firm can achieve without external financing of any kind Internal growth rate = (Addition to retained earnings) / (Beginning assets) = (Addition to RE)/NI x NI/E x E/Assets = retention rate x ROE x Equity/Assets Contoh: Beginning total assets (awal tahun) = $1000 ; Beginning equity (awal tahun) = $600; Net income tahun berjalan = $96, retention rate = 1/3 ROE = 96/600 = 0.16 ; Rasio equity to assets = 600/1000 = 0.6; Internal growth rate = 1/3 x 0.16 x 0.60 = atau 3.2% Bila perusahaan ingin tumbuh lebih cepat dari 3.2% tanpa external capital maka perusahaan harus: Menanam kembali laba dengan proporsi yang lebih besar Menghasilkan ROE yang lebih tinggi Mempunyai debt to equity ratio yang lebih rendah Sustainable growth rate Sustainable growth rate = the maximum growth rate a firm can achieve without external equity financing (tanpa saham baru) while maintaining a constant debt-equity ratio (without changing leverage). Sustainable growth rate = retention rate x ROE Retention rate = 1 payout ratio. Pertumbuhan assets = Retained earnings + New equity issue + New debt issue Karena perusahaan tidak melakukan new equity issue maka new equity issue = 0 Growth rate x Assets = Retained earnings + new debt issue Sustainable growth rate = (Retained earnings + new debt issue) / Assets Karena Debt/Equity constant maka new debt issue harus sama dengan retained earnings dikalikan D/E. Sustainable growth rate = (Retained earnings + Retained earnings (D/E) / ( E + D) = Retained earnings (1 + D/E) / ( E + E(D/E)) = Retained earnings (1+D/E) / Equity (1+D/E) = Retained earnings / Equity = (Retained earnings / Net Income) x (Net Income) / Equity = Retention rate x ROE = b x ROE 5

6 Contoh: Bila perusahaan ingin mempertahankan ratio debt to total assets konstan, maka perusahaan dapan menerbitkan 40 cents of debt untuk setiap 60 cents of retained earnings, dalam hal ini, maksimum (sustainable growth rate) menjadi: Sustainable growth rate = retention rate x ROE = 1/3 x 0.16 = atau 5.3% Problems with the percentage of sales approach Kelebihan dari the percent of sales method: it is simple and inexpensive to use Keterbatasannya adalah: Pertama: Dalam praktek many variables will not be proportional to the forecasted level of sales. Adanya economies of scale dalam penggunaan assets akan menyebabkan ratio antara total assets terhadap sales tidak constant dari waktu ke waktu. Adanya safety stock untuk inventory sekalipun tingkat penjualan rendah. Dalam hal ini growth rate of sales tidak sama dengan growth rate of inventory. Contoh lain apabila perusahaan menggunakan EOQ model untuk inventory maka inventory will rise with the square root of sales (tidak linear). Lumpy assets, yaitu assets yang hanya dapat dibeli dalam jumlah yang utuh dan besar, tidak sedikitsedikit (in small increments). Lumpy assets mempengaruhi fixed assets / sales ratio dan berdampak pada financial requirements. The firm is assumed to be operating at full capacity. Dalam praktek banyak perusahaan beroperasi tidak dalam full capacity. Komplikasi: Feedback effects Proforma laporan keuangan yang dibuat diatas masih harus dikoreksi karena belum memperhitungkan bunga pinjaman tambahan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan external financinf needed. Dividend seharusnya juga dibayar untuk saham tambahan. Pembayaran bunga dan dividend ini akan mengurangi net income dan retained earnings. Financing feedback effects ini harus dimasukkan dalam penentuan proforma financial statement. Pertama, tambahan hutang akan menambah biaya bunga. Kedua, penambahan modal saham akan menambah dividend yang dibayarkan Hutang yang ada Table 12 Hutang tambahan Proyeksi biaya bunga Notes payable bunga 8% New notes payable bunga 10% Biaya bunga = 8% x 10 = 0.8 Biaya bunga = 10% x 9 = Bonds bunga 10% New Bonds bunga 12% Biaya bunga = 10% x 72 = 7.2 Biaya bunga = 12% x 70 = Total proyeksi biaya bunga 2007: Table 13 Dividend sebelum saham baru Saham baru Shares outstanding = 10 juta Equity baru = $ 37 juta Dividend total = $ 8 juta Harga saham per lembar $ 30 Dividend per shares = $ 0.8 Tambahan saham 37 jt / $ 30 = 1,233,333 lembar Tambahan dividend = $0.8 Atau $ 986,667 $ 1 juta Total proyeksi dividend 2007 = $ 9 juta 6

7 Including Feedback Effect (First Iteration) Table Percent of 2006 Sales 2007 Projection 2007 Pro forma Net sales $ % $ 750 $ 750 Cost of goods sold Selling and Adm expenses EBIT Interest expenses 8 n.a EBT 40 n.a Taxes (50%) 20 n.a Net Income 20 n.a Dividend (payout 40%) 8 n.a. 8 9 Addition to retained earnings 12 n.a Table 15 Balance Sheet 2006 Percent of 2006 Sales 2007 Projection 2007 Pro forma Cash % Receivables Inventories Total current assets Net fixed assets Total assets Account payables Notes payables (8%) 10 n.a Accrued wages and taxes Total current liabilities 75 n.a Mortgage bonds (10%) 72 n.a Common stock 150 n.a Retained earnings 48 n.a Total claims 345 n.a External financing needed = = $ 6 juta Key ratios projected for December 31, 2007: Current ratio = 2.5 times; Total debt / total assets = 50%; ROE = 10.4 % Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi besarnya external financing Sales growth: Increases in sales normally require increases in assets, Some of financing needed to support asset increases comes from spontaneously generated liabilities (misalnya accounts payable) dan laba ditahan (retained earnings). If sales growth is low enough, accounts payable dan laba ditahan ini akan cukup untuk membiayai the asset growth. If the asset growth rate exceeds a certain level, external funds will be needed. Output/capacity relationship. Percent of sales method mengasumsikan bahwa fixed assets telah dioperasikan secara penuh (fully utilized). Jika perusahaan hanya beroperasi 70% dari kapasitas penuh, fixed assets mungkin tidak harus ditambah sampai level penjualan mencapai titik tertentu. Bila sales sebesar $500 juta dicapai perusahaan hanya dengan 70% kapasitas, maka full capacity sales adalah $ 714 juta. Full capacity sales = Current sales / 0.70 = 500 / 0.70 = $714 juta. Fixed asset sebesar $150 juta bisa menopang sales maksimum $714 juta. Atau fixed asset yang dibutuhkan adalah 150/714 = 21% dari sales. Dengan proyeksi penjualan sebesar $ 750 juta maka kebutuhan assets = (150/714) x 750 = $ 158 juta. 7

8 Capital Intensity atau jumlah assets yang diperlukan per dollar of sales = Assets / Sales Bila ratio ini rendah maka kenaikan sales hanya membutuhkan sedikit tambahan fixed assets dan selanjutnya makin sedikit membutuhkan external financing. Profit margin: Higher profit margin ---- higher net income ---- higher retained earnings. Dividend policy: Lowering payout ratio increasing retained earnings Metode lain untuk forecasting pos-pos neraca dan rugi laba: Metode lainnya meliputi: Simple linear regression, Multiple regression, Specific model untuk setiap variable (item), dan lain-lain. Contoh penggunaan simple linear regression: Misal Inventory = a + b*sales Misalkan hubungan antara key variables dengan sales disajikan pada tabel berikut: Table 16: Hubungan Beberapa Variabel Terhadap Sales Variabel Cost of goods sold Administrative and selling expenses Cash Receivables Inventories Net fixed assets Accounts payable Accrued wages and taxes Hubungan dengan Sales 0.80*Sales $ *Sales 0.02*Sales $ *Sales $ *Sales $ *Sales 0.08*Sales 0.05*Sales Assumsi: Sales tumbuh sebesar 50% pada tahun 2 dan 3, sebesar 25% pada tahun 4, dan sebesar masing-masing 15% pada tahun 5 dan 6 Pertumbuhan dividend sebesar 10% per tahun Kenaikan harga saham sebesar 20% per tahun Tarip pajak sebesar 50% Distribusi external financing sebesar 4% dari short-term notes, 26% dari bonds, dan 70% dari equity Dana dari external financing diterima pada setiap 1 Januari Bunga short-term debt yang baru adalah 10%, dan long-term debt baru berbunga 12%. Sedangkan flotation cost diabaikan. Table 17 Proyeksi Income Statement Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Net sales $ $ $1, $1, $1, $1, Cost of goods sold , , , Operating expenses EBIT Interest expense EBT Taxes (50%) Net Income Dividends paid Addition to Ret.Earnings EPS

9 Table 18 Proyeksi Balance Sheet Balance Sheet Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Assets Cash $ $ $ $ $ $ Receivables Inventories Total current assets Net fixed assets Total assets , Liabilities Accounts payable $ $ $ $ $ $ Notes payable Accrued wages & taxes Total current liabilities Bonds Common stock Retained earnings Total Claims , Table 19 External Financing Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Funding requirements External funding -- $ $ $ $ 7.91 $ 5.13 Surplus cash New notes payable New bonds New stock New shares sold Total shares outstanding Table 20 Financial Ratios Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Current ratio Total asset turn-over Times interest earned ROA 6% 8% 9% 10% 10% 11% ROE 10% 13% 16% 16% 16% 17% Table 20 Financial Ratios Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Stock price $ Dividend per share $ Growth rate of sales n.a. 50% 50% 25% 15% 15% 9

10 BUDGET To obtain a more precise projection of future financing needs: the preparation of cash budget is required. Operating budgets 1. Sales budget, including a computation of expected cash receipts 2. Production budget 3. Ending inventory budget 4. Direct material budget, including a computation of expected cash disbursements for materials 5. Direct labor budget 6. Factory overhead budget 7. Selling and administrative expenses budget 8. Proforma income statement The financial budget consists of cash budget and proforma balance sheet. Steps needed in preparing the budget: 1. Prepare a sales forecast 2. Determine production volume 3. Estimate manufacturing costs and operating expenses 4. Determine cash flow and other financial effects 5. Formulate projected financial statement Table 16 Contoh Cash budget Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Beginning Receivables Sales Cash collection = Beg Receivable + ½ Sales Ending Receivable Cash disbursements Payments of accounts (60% of sales) Wages, taxes, and other expenses Capital expenditures Financing expenses (Interest and Dividend) Total Cash Disbursement Net Cash Inflow Beginning Cash balance Net Cash Inflow Ending cash balance Minimum cash balance Cumulative Surplus (Deficit)

11 Short-term Financial Plan Table 17 Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Beginning Cash balance Net Cash Inflow Pinjaman baru jangka pendek Bunga pinjamannya Pelunasan Pinjaman jangka pendek Ending cash balance Minimum cash balance Cumulative Surplus (Deficit) Short-term financing Trade credit, dicatat di neraca sebagai Accounts Payable Short-term loans dari bank misalnya notes payable Commercial papers Banker s Acceptance Accounts receivable financing (pinjaman dengan jaminan piutang, dan factoring) Inventory financing Table 18 Lain-lain Sources of External Financing Long-term external funds Private sources (direct financing) dana diperoleh secara langsung dari individuals atau lembaga-lembaga keuangan (banks, pension funds, life insurance, dll) Public markets dengan menggunakan jasa underwriter untuk menjual securities kepada public (individuals dan institutions) Financial Control Untuk terealisirnya financial planning perusahaan harus mempunyai control system sehingga semua rencana bisa diimplementasikan disamping dapat memberikan feedback yang memungkinkan penyesuaian segera bila kondisi pasar berobah. Budgets dan proforma financial statements menetapkan expected performance yang merupakan target yang dibuat management. Target ini harus dibandingkan dengan actual performance sehingga dapat dilihat seberapa jauh variance nya. Fokus harus diarahkan kepada variables (items) dengan variance yang besar (apakah kondisi pasar yang berubah, manager tidak bekerja dengan baik, atau targetnya yang tidak realistic). 11