BUDGET RISK ANALYSIS IN PT. WASKITA KARYA 2007 BUDGET PLAN: BASIS 2006 ANNUAL REPORT FINAL PROJECT

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1 BUDGET RISK ANALYSIS IN PT. WASKITA KARYA 2007 BUDGET PLAN: BASIS 2006 ANNUAL REPORT FINAL PROJECT By Tutik Inayati Undergraduate Program School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung

2 ABSTRACT This research is due to look to the future about PT. Waskita Karya s prospectus. In 2007 budget plan, this study aims about the reliability and accuracy of budget plan. PT. Waskita Karya is a state-owned construction company that soon will undergo restructuring and privatization. But, in 2007 PT. Waskita Karya is having trouble in handling cash flow. This study will discuss about probability of how far can PT. Waskita Karya achieve its own target in 2007, and how the position of cash flows in PT. Waskita Karya itself. By measuring the probability and accuracy of projects received or won by PT. Waskita Karya. This study suggests PT. Waskita Karya to manage its cash flow more properly, because if cash flow is negative, then PT. Waskita Karya is considered unhealthy company. Second suggestion is for PT. Waskita Karya to diverse its products to another business development rather than only focusing on construction service. Key words: Probability, sensitivity analysis, cash flow, budget plan. i

3 ABSTRAK Studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat ke depan dari prospek PT. Waskita Karya. Pada RKAP 2007, studi ini ditujukan untuk melihat tingkat keterkaitan dan keakuratan dari anggaran itu sendiri. PT. Waskita Karya adalah perusahaan pemerintah yang bekerja di bidang konstruksi dan sebentar lagi akan menjalani restrukturisasi dan privatisasi. Akan tetapi, pada tahun 2007 PT. Waskita Karya mengalami kesulitan dalam mengatur arus kas. Dan sebagian besar pendapatan PT. Waskita Karya berasal dari proyek proyek tender maupun non-tender. Studi ini akan membahas mengenai probabilitas akan seberapa jauh PT. Waskita Karya dapat mencapai target yang telah dibuatnya sendiri dalam anggaran 2007, dan bagaimana posisi dari arus kas di dalam PT. Waskita Karya. Dengan menggunakan metode sensitivitas maka akan menunjukkan letak keuangan PT. Waskita Karya pada tahun Studi ini menyarankan agar PT. Waskita Karya dapat mengatur arus kasnya dengan baik yang nantinya akan dibahas di studi ini, karena apabila arus kas negatif, maka PT. Waskita Karya dapat dianggap sebagai perusahaan tidak sehat. Saran yang kedua adalah bagi PT. Waskita Karya untuk menjalankan diversifikasi produk ke berbagai pengembangan bisnis baru daripada hanya fokus ke jasa konstruksi. Kata kunci: Probabilitas, analisa sensitivitas, arus kas, anggaran. ii

4 VALIDATION PAGE BUDGET RISK ANALYSIS IN PT. WASKITA KARYA 2007 BUDGET PLAN: BASIS 2006 ANNUAL REPORT By: Tutik Inayati ID No: Undergraduate Program School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung Validated By (Dr. Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono) iii

5 FOREWORD Alhamdulillah, I praise for Allah S.W.T for all gifts that have been given to me. My gratitude to my parents, and my family for having supported me all these years especially in working this final project, a lot of thankfulness for my mentor, Dr. Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono, my guardian in SBM-ITB for three whole years, Ir. Budi Permadi Iskandar, MSP, and also Mrs. Yunieta for helping me to go through hard times in working on this final project. Mr. Bambang Kunto, head of risk management bureau PT. Waskita Karya. Dr. M. Machmudin Jusuf, commissioner of PT. Waskita Karya. I would like to thank for Wisnawan Bayuadi Priyono who keeps helping me searching data for my final project and supports me in any kind of condition, for all of Dr. Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono s students, for sharing information and discussion. My best friends not only in SBM- ITB but also outside SBM-ITB, Maharani, Karina, M. Arief Baskoro, Eguh P, Ivan R, Tri Yudha, Pandu W, M. Rifki, Alfin M, Gebyar P, Meilida N, Johan I.T, Dharma S, m. Krishna W, and other names whom I can t mention. I also would like to thank Alamanda open house that accepted me for the last two weeks, and all of my friends there. iv

6 LIST OF TABLES Table gross profit target from project 29 Table 4.2. Comparison between actual and PT. Waskita Karya assumption 34 Table 4.3. Comparison between RKAP 2006, Prognosis 2006, RKAP 2007, and Prognosis v

7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1. Example of S Curve 21 Figure 3.1. Flow of methodology 23 Graph 4.1. Cost curve for 2007 budget plan 38 Graph 4.2. Cost curve from actual estimation vi

8 LIST OF CONTENT ABSTRACT i ABSTRAK ii Validation Page iii Foreword iv List of tables v List of Figures vi List of content vii 1. Introduction Background Main problem formulation Importance of problem solving Steps for problem solving Problem identification Data collecting Literature study Budget risk analysis Sensitivity analysis Writing systematics Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2 Theoretical Foundation Chapter 3 Methodology Chapter 4 Data Analysis Chapter 5 Discussion/Conclusion 6 2. Theoretical Foundation Risk and risk management Basic concept of risk management Purposes of risk management Financial risk management Corporate culture Policies and procedures 13 vii

9 Technology Independence Sensitivity analysis S Curve Cash flow Methodology Problem identification Literature study Data collecting Primary data Secondary data Analysis Probability Cost curve Comparison Sensitivity analysis Conclusion Suggestion Data collecting and analysis Data collection Division of project in PT. Waskita Karya Product line I Product line II Product line III Tender target 2007 (contract) Gross profit from projects Historical data from year 2004, 2005, and Analysis Probability Probability of product line I Office building 31 viii

10 Shopping center Hotels Hospitals Apartments Religious facility Industry building Probability of product line II Highway project Pantura road, Java Island National roads in many provinces JORR (Jakarta Outer Ring Road) Flyover and underpass DKI Road and bridge project Airport project Seaport in east side of Indonesia project Foreign project Product line III Cost curve analysis Comparison between 2006 and Sensitivity analysis Moderate case cash flow statement Worst case (pessimist scenario) Best case (optimist scenario) Conclusion and suggestion Conclusion Suggestion Reference 49 ix