Indonesia Economic Update & ICT Overview Prof. Firmanzah.,PhD

Transkripsi

1 Indonesia Economic Update & ICT Overview Prof. Firmanzah.,PhD Disajikan pada Indonesia Broadband Economy Forum Kemenko Perekonomian RI dan KADIN 21 September 2011

2 Ekonomi Dunia Laju pertumbuhan > 5%

3 Peringkat 18 negara dengan PDB terbesar di dunia th 2010 Th 2025????

4 INDONESIA Jumlah Penduduk juta jiwa 60-65% usia dewasa (15-60) Peringkat Daya Saing Global PDB triliun = US $ 706 Milyar PDB per kapita 2010 US $ Pertumbuhan PDB ,1 % Growth PDB by sector 2010 Pengangkutan & komunikasi (13,5 %) perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran (8,7 %) konstruksi (7,0 %) Jasa-jasa (6,0 %) keuangan, real estat, dan jasa perusahaan (5,7%) Listrik, gas, air bersih (5,3%) Manufaktur Pertanian (4,5%) (2,9%) Pertambangan (3,5%) Tenaga kerja Per sektor 2010 Pertanian (38,3 %) perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran (20,8 %) Jasa-jasa (14,0 %) Manufaktur (12,8 %) Pengangkutan&Komunikasi (5,2%) Konstruksi (5,1%) Keuangan,realestate & jasa lainnua (1,6%) Pertambangan Listrik, gas,air bersih (1,1%) (0,22%) Cadangan devisa per Juli 2011 Angka kemiskinan Maret 2011 US $ 122,7 milyar 12,49 % (30,02 juta jiwa)

5 Indikator Makro lifting harga minyak dunia Pertumbuhan Ekonomi lifting harga minyak dunia Kurs Inflasi Diolah dari Kemneterian Keuangan, LKPP; 2011 APBN-P; 2012 RAPBN

6 * Percentage Distribution of GDP by Expenditure Th 2010 % GDP Household final consumption 32,5% Pembentukan modal tetap bruto Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods & services 22,6 % Impor (-) 23,2 % Ekspor General government final consumption Imports of goods & services 8,9% Konsumsi Pemerintah 56,6% Konsumsi RT Source: World Bank and BPS Inventory (0,8%), diskrepansi staistik (0,6%)

7 Pertumbuhan ekonomi-pertumbuhan industri Pertumbuhan periode , pertumbuhan industri > 10%, pertumbuhan industri di angka 9,6%-11,6% Data BPS diolah pertumbuhan ekonomi pertumbuhan industri

8 Sumber : Bappenas

9 Global ICT Development

10 Lower than thailand, south africa

11 World-Internet users

12 Broadband penetration - World

13 ICT Development Index

14 Indonesia Connectivity Scorecard

15 Digital Economy Ranking 2010 Negara Ranking 2009 Ranking 2010 Overall score Connectivi ty Business environm ent Socialcultural environn ment Legal environm ent Governme nt policy & vision Consumer & Business adoption Singapore 7 8 8,22 7,65 8,40 7,27 9,00 9,18 8,28 Malaysia ,93 4,35 7,36 5,47 6,88 6,65 5,80 Thailand ,86 3,20 6,83 4,50 6,35 5,60 4,18 Philipina ,47 2,60 6,35 4,27 4,85 5,20 4,38 Vietnam ,87 3,20 5,70 3,60 4,65 4,60 2,71 Indonesia ,60 2,60 6,04 3,60 4,20 3,88 2,55 Sumber : The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2010

16 Technology Readiness, GCI-WEF Tech.Read iness Avail.of latest tech Firm-level techabsorption FDI & tech.transf er Internet users Broadband internet subscribers Internet bandwith Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Philipina Tech.Read iness Avail.of latest tech Firm-level techabsorption FDI & tech.transf er Internet users Broadband internet subscribers Internet bandwith Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Philipina

17 Yg menarik Indonesia pengguna facebook terbesar kedua setelah USA

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20 Pengguna Pengguna PENETRASI & DENSITAS TIK Penetrasi TIK Densitas TIK Tahun Year PSTN WLL GSM 3G NB BB i-tv 150% 100% 50% 0% Tahun PSTN per HH WLL per HH GSM per Pop 3G per Pop NB per HH BB per HH i-tv per HH Source: Kemkominfo & Worldbank

21 Penetrasi PENETRASI & DENSITAS TIK Penetrasi PSTN+WLL dan Internet sektor Residensial 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Tahun Source: Kemkominfo & Worldbank PSTN+WLL GSM 3G NB BB

22 Midleton, 2007 Broadband & Society

23 Broadband & Competitiveness Productivity Administration cost Broadband Reduce Production cost Transaction cost

24 Broadband & Competitiveness Broadband and economy impact Communication Labor creation New company Purchasing Power Broadband Innovation Affordability

25 Broadband and GDP growth Previous research Katz et al (2009) in Germany Koutroumpis (2009) for 22 OECD countries Czernich et al.(2009) for OECD countries An increase in of broadband penetration between 1% - 10% contributes in an increase GDP growth between 0,0025% - 1,5 % Qiang et al.(2009) 119 countries

26 Broadband penetration and Previous research Employment growth Lehr et al.(2005) for ZIP codes Crandall et al.(2007) For 48 states Shideler et al. (2007) An increase in of broadband penetration contributes in an increases employment growth varies by industry Thompson et al. (2008) for 48 states

27 Studies of the Employment Impact of Broadband First impact: Jobs created in order to deploy the infrastructure (e.g. construction), and Second impact: Employment generated as a result of network externalities on other sectors of the economy. The results of the research to date in these two areas will be reviewed in turn. Katz, (2009)

28 Conceptual view of comparative broadband regional effects Katz, 2009

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30 Others. OECD (2008) broadband impact on productivity, SME s, quality of life, consumer surplus Prof. Raul L. Katz and Javier G. Avila (2009) broadband impacts on economic performance (GDP growth and employment growth) Fornefeld et.al (2008) broadband impact on growth and productivity Crandall (2008) broadband deployment contributes in an increases of growth, jobs and investment Hagén et.al (2008) Broadband improve firm productivity Gillett et.al (2005) broadband access does enhance economic growth and performance

31 Broadband impact on the economy: Summary from previous research Katz (2009)

32 Presentation Prof.Firmanzah, Ph.D Dean Faculty of Economics and Business University of Indonesia 2011