Lampiran 1. Nama Variabel yang Digunakan dalam Model Permintaan dan Penawaran Beras di Indonesia

LAMPIRAN 77

Lampiran 1. Nama Variabel yang Digunakan dalam Model Permintaan dan Penawaran Beras di Indonesia TREN : Trend Waktu IHK : Indeks Harga Konsumen EXCT : Nilai Tukar Rupiah (Rp/US$) PRDP : Produksi Padi (000 ton) PRDB : Produksi Beras (000 ton) PRDV : Produktivitas Padi (ton/ha) LPRDV : Produktivitas Padi t-1 (ton/ha) QDBR : Permintaan Beras (ton) LQDBR : Permintaan Beras t-1 (ton) QSBR : Penawaran Beras (ton) HGTP : Harga Gabah Tingkat Petani (Rp/Kg) HGTPR : Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani (Rp/Kg) LHGTPR : Harga Gabah Tingkat Petani t-1 (Rp/Kg) HBIN : Harga Beras Indonesia (Rp/Kg) HBINR : Harga Riil Beras Indonesia (Rp/Kg) LHBINR : Harga Beras Indonesia t-1 (Rp/Kg) HJTP : Harga Jagung Tingkat Petani (Rp/Kg) HJTPR : Harga Riil Jagung Tingkat Petani (Rp/Kg) LHJTPR : Harga Riil Jagung Tingkat Petani t-1 (Rp/Kg) HPUK : Harga Pupuk Urea (Rp/Kg) HPUKR : Harga Riil Pupuk Urea (Rp/Kg) HDPP : Harga Pembelian Pemerintah (Rp/Kg) HDPPR : Harga Riil Pembelian Pemerintah (Rp/Kg) HIMP : Harga Beras Impor Indonesia (Rp/Kg) HIMPR : Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia (Rp/Kg) LHIMPR : Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia t-1 (Rp/Kg) HBRD : Harga Beras Dunia (US$/Kg) HBRDR : Harga Riil Beras Dunia (US$/Kg) AREA : Luas Areal Panen Padi (000 Ha) LAREA : Luas Areal Panen Padi t-1 (000 Ha) KUTA : Kredit Usahatani (Rp) CRAH : Curah Hujan (mm/thn) IMPR : Jumlah Impor Beras (ton) LIMPR : Jumlah Impor Beras t-1 (ton) TRIF : Tarif Impor Beras (Rp/Kg) LTRIF : Tarif Impor Beras t-1 (Rp/Kg) FK : Faktor Konversi INCK : Pendapatan Per Kapita (Rp) INCKR : Pendapatan Riil Per Kapita (Rp) JPDK : Jumlah Penduduk (Juta Jiwa) STOK : Stok Beras (ton) LSTOK : Stok Beras t-1 (ton) RHGHP : Rasio Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani dengan Harga Riil Pupuk Urea 78

Lampiran 2. Data Time Series yang Digunakan dalam Penelitian TAHUN TREN IHK EXCT PRDP PRDB PRDV QDBR QSBR HGTP HBIN HJTP HPUK 1971 1 2.35 391.88 20,228.10 12,743.70 2.43 12,953.84 12,719.10 40.70 45.35 38.89 29.06 1972 2 2.63 415.00 19,428.19 12,239.76 2.46 13,080.60 13,336.66 48.85 49.41 43.12 28.30 1973 3 3.56 415.00 21,513.23 13,553.33 2.56 14,412.54 15,004.72 77.30 83.40 47.80 36.71 1974 4 4.61 415.00 22,462.70 14,151.50 2.64 14,503.66 15,016.07 86.95 100.42 52.99 50.89 1975 5 5.09 415.00 22,342.10 14,075.52 2.63 14,416.88 14,883.20 102.42 111.00 58.75 69.61 1976 6 7.69 415.00 23,265.15 14,657.04 2.78 15,620.90 16,148.03 123.95 128.48 65.13 73.28 1977 7 8.53 415.00 23,323.19 14,693.61 2.79 16,218.47 16,746.47 128.34 132.62 62.51 71.77 1978 8 9.24 442.05 25,805.30 16,257.34 2.89 16,716.91 17,485.92 133.28 140.46 65.73 71.18 1979 9 10.73 623.06 26,322.66 16,583.27 2.99 17,996.00 18,796.70 166.37 170.31 82.72 72.72 1980 10 22.38 626.99 29,626.66 18,664.80 3.29 18,740.87 19,792.91 189.32 198.39 70.73 72.01 1981 11 25.12 631.76 32,742.62 20,627.85 3.49 19,268.87 20,616.23 212.16 226.19 96.28 72.11 1982 12 27.50 661.42 33,616.82 21,178.60 3.74 20,584.11 22,038.84 229.61 254.92 125.75 81.98 1983 13 30.75 909.26 35,275.51 22,223.57 3.85 21,899.35 23,470.69 274.69 304.24 122.69 92.66 1984 14 33.95 1,025.94 38,175.60 24,050.63 3.91 21,452.96 23,298.78 284.81 330.97 129.13 96.24 1985 15 35.56 1,110.58 39,015.03 24,579.47 3.94 22,702.19 24,642.62 288.59 322.07 132.25 100.21 1986 16 37.64 1,282.56 39,754.04 25,045.05 3.98 23,736.87 25,669.22 167.27 345.24 147.62 105.57 1987 17 41.13 1,643.85 40,087.28 25,254.99 4.04 23,858.26 25,922.07 184.73 386.86 152.83 126.93 1988 18 44.44 1,685.70 41,676.04 26,255.90 4.11 24,993.15 27,058.73 381.62 469.20 178.77 135.90 1989 19 47.28 1,770.06 44,757.63 28,197.31 4.25 24,799.56 27,329.13 475.48 496.56 197.38 169.37 1990 20 47.55 1,842.81 45,160.14 28,450.89 4.30 26,542.76 28,998.77 466.68 525.17 216.79 215.89 1991 21 57.30 1,950.30 44,724.61 28,176.50 4.35 26,431.69 28,347.49 517.47 557.84 239.01 227.08 1992 22 62.91 2,029.90 48,299.43 30,428.64 4.35 26,005.16 30,345.12 303.70 603.68 245.79 246.91 1993 23 64.24 2,087.10 48,129.32 30,374.78 4.38 28,088.33 30,845.70 284.05 592.25 266.05 263.26 79

Lampiran 2. Lanjutan TAHUN TREN IHK EXCT PRDP PRDB PRDV QDBR QSBR HGTP HBIN HJIN HPUK 1994 24 66.52 2,160.80 46,598.38 29,402.54 4.35 28,549.21 31,129.59 352.83 660.37 302.57 292.90 1995 25 72.85 2,248.60 49,697.44 31,347.93 4.35 28,398.69 31,845.01 419.81 776.38 342.42 318.60 1996 26 78.55 2,383.00 51,048.90 32,217.07 4.42 30,196.43 34,023.13 432.75 880.00 393.39 376.04 1997 27 83.79 4,650.00 49,339.09 31,120.36 4.43 29,012.11 32,240.64 498.27 1,064.03 443.67 443.88 1998 28 88.87 8,025.00 49,236.69 31,016.27 4.20 27,932.84 33,147.49 933.01 2,099.71 727.47 572.56 1999 29 96.34 7,100.00 50,866.39 32,031.48 4.25 28,189.18 37,649.38 1,159.43 2,665.58 987.11 1,088.40 2000 30 100.00 9,595.00 51,898.85 32,698.96 4.40 29,378.69 34,250.55 964.72 2,424.22 952.34 1,352.81 2001 31 80.64 10,265.67 50,460.78 31,805.55 4.39 29,016.00 32,213.73 1,141.22 2,537.09 1,136.81 1,334.29 2002 32 84.45 9,261.17 51,489.69 32,471.55 4.47 29,665.00 33,944.05 1,255.46 2,826.06 1,212.09 1,400.32 2003 33 88.27 8,571.17 52,137.60 32,756.73 4.54 31,123.49 33,818.01 1,249.33 2,785.85 1,255.19 1,596.87 2004 34 113.20 9,030.42 54,088.47 34,102.08 4.54 33,621.32 34,242.27 1,258.31 2,850.96 1,528.39 1,626.77 2005 35 125.10 9,750.58 54,151.10 34,085.84 4.57 34,301.57 34,380.54 1,567.67 3,631.77 1,668.30 1,758.06 2006 36 141.50 9,141.25 54,454.95 34,305.58 4.62 30,995.19 34,460.17 2,127.82 4,651.47 2,221.00 1,865.46 2007 37 150.60 9,142.42 57,157.44 36,007.43 4.71 30,618.67 35,147.01 2,315.59 5,438.96 2,605.00 1,200.00 2008 38 109.80 9,772.17 60,325.93 37,977.08 4.89 31,799.02 35,925.98 2,417.00 5,791.71 3,122.00 1,200.00 80

Lampiran 2. Lanjutan TAHUN HDPP HIMP HBRD AREA KUTA CRAH IMPR TRIF FK INCK JPDK STOK 1971 20.90 237.15 94.00 8324.32 9.82 2,700.67 506.00 0 0.63 93,972 119.21 530.60 1972 20.90 211.09 104.00 7897.64 15.33 1,801.01 734.30 0 0.63 102,826 125.64 168.00 1973 25.60 204.85 146.00 8403.60 36.49 3,481.67 1,862.69 0 0.63 114,457 128.80 579.30 1974 41.80 330.50 459.20 8508.60 53.10 2,988.96 1,132.07 0 0.63 123,193 132.00 846.80 1975 58.50 471.96 312.90 8495.10 72.29 2,862.47 691.78 0 0.63 129,327 135.67 730.90 1976 68.50 345.90 222.50 8368.76 71.31 1,880.36 1,301.19 0 0.63 128,395 133.53 541.10 1977 71.00 343.58 237.30 8359.57 62.08 2,177.42 1,973.36 0 0.63 150,344 136.63 461.60 1978 75.00 321.19 335.30 8929.17 60.28 2,602.52 1,841.58 0 0.63 162,132 139.80 1,074.60 1979 85.00 310.25 308.50 8803.56 49.50 2,207.81 1,922.03 0 0.63 172,275 143.04 783.20 1980 105.00 343.20 395.10 9005.07 50.12 2,498.49 2,011.71 0 0.63 189,295 147.49 1,666.80 1981 120.00 383.42 417.30 9381.84 62.50 2,232.72 538.28 0 0.63 204,300 151.31 2,216.70 1982 135.00 333.11 250.90 8988.46 59.35 1,926.97 309.64 0 0.63 208,889 154.66 1,666.10 1983 145.00 328.56 246.61 9162.47 23.49 1,962.23 1,168.82 0 0.63 217,648 158.08 1,587.80 1984 165.00 318.73 235.23 9763.58 5.65 2,096.56 414.35 0 0.63 232,830 161.58 2,754.00 1985 175.00 260.15 198.14 9902.29 10.96 1,894.08 33.85 0 0.63 238,563 164.63 2,724.70 1986 175.00 214.08 172.10 9988.45 13.07 2,343.66 27.77 0 0.63 253,251 168.35 2,128.30 1987 190.00 223.92 202.35 9922.59 74.83 2,138.36 54.98 0 0.63 263,057 172.01 1,516.20 1988 210.00 264.16 283.23 1,0140.16 137.42 2,637.53 32.73 0 0.63 266,318 175.59 746.10 1989 250.00 282.95 296.51 1,0531.21 37.33 2,729.65 268.32 0 0.63 301,246 179.14 1,882.60 1990 270.00 285.05 254.00 1,0502.36 164.80 2,296.74 49.58 0 0.63 322,759 179.38 1,384.30 1991 295.00 310.22 244.13 1,0281.52 161.00 1,717.49 170.99 0 0.63 342,875 181.38 1,384.30 1992 330.00 283.07 235.17 1,1103.32 166.80 1,916.71 597.58 0 0.63 365,023 184.49 2,065.40 81

Lampiran 2. Lanjutan TAHUN HDPP HIMP HBRD AREA KUTA CRAH IMPR TRIF FK INCK JPDK STOK 1993 340.00 295.91 215.63 10,993.92 158.00 2,115.94 24.32 0 0.63 388,735 187.60 1,618.80 1994 360.00 249.69 270.78 10,717.73 161.00 1,586.69 633.05 0 0.63 418,046 190.68 524.80 1995 400.00 280.34 304.25 11,420.68 279.90 2,605.70 1,807.88 0 0.63 452,381 194.75 1,835.60 1996 450.00 356.47 331.80 11,550.05 346.30 2,352.78 2,149.76 0 0.63 490,683 196.81 2,179.30 1997 525.00 312.96 289.96 11,126.40 998.50 2,507.23 349.68 0 0.63 627,695 199.87 1,408.70 1998 800.00 454.43 275.99 11,730.33 2,878.60 2,173.88 2,895.12 430 0.63 955,754 204.42 2,172.60 1999 1,400.00 279.58 216.21 11,963.20 59,436.00 2,952.74 4,742.00 430 0.63 1,099,732 209.26 1,296.70 2000 1,400.00 291.41 172.83 11,793.48 28,107.00 3,060.59 1,356.09 430 0.63 1,389,770 205.10 1,101.20 2001 1,519.00 2,194.50 150.00 11,500.00 20,863.00 2,515.63 645.97 430 0.63 1,646,322 207.93 1,338.99 2002 1,519.00 1,696.51 180.00 11,521.17 22,332.00 2,026.00 1,810.00 430 0.63 1,821,833 210.74 1,676.49 2003 1,725.00 1,705.60 180.00 11,488.03 23,950.00 2,556.36 1,428.51 430 0.63 2,013,675 213.55 2,043.72 2004 1,740.00 61.75 230.00 11,922.97 32,376.00 2,506.80 246.26 450 0.63 2,295,826 216.40 2,140.40 2005 2,250.00 51.50 270.00 11,839.06 36,678.00 2,524.53 195.02 450 0.63 2,774,281 219.80 2,035.32 2006 2,280.00 132.62 346.44 11,786.43 45,003.00 1,657.64 439.78 450 0.63 3,339,217 222.70 2,318.84 2007 2,575.00 467.72 243.41 12,147.64 55,905.00 2,391.40 1,396.60 450 0.63 3,949,321 225.60 4,586.11 2008 2,800.00 124.14 454.60 12,327.43 66,160.00 3,010.00 289.27 450 0.63 4,954,029 228.50 6,926.90 Sumber: BPS, BI, Kementan, dan Kemendag, 1971-2008 82

Lampiran 3. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Luas Areal Panen Padi The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model Dependent LUAS_ARE AREA LUAS AREAL PANEN PADI Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 61604286 12320857 124.37 <.0001 31 3070975 99063.72 Corrected Total 36 64675262 Root MSE 314.74390 R-Square 0.95252 Dependent Mean 10331.5632 Adj R-Sq 0.94486 Coeff Var 3.04643 Parameter Estimates DF Parameter Estimate Standard t Value Pr > t Intercept 1-147.763 954.7469-0.15 0.8780 Intercept RHGHP 1 75.68043 96.12537 0.79 0.4371 RASIO HRGA RIIL GBAH TKT PETANI - HRGA RIIL PUPUK UREA HJTPR 1-0.20927 0.165569-1.26 0.2157 HARGA RIIL JAGUNG TINGKAT PETANI KUTA 1 0.005800 0.006001 0.97 0.3412 KREDIT USAHATANI CRAH 1 0.239922 0.129921 1.85 0.0744 CURAH HUJAN LAREA 1 0.968430 0.070320 13.77 <.0001 LUAS AREAL PANEN PADI t-1 Durbin-Watson 2.53943 Number of Observations 37 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.27914 83

Lampiran 4. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Produktivitas Padi The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model Dependent PRDV_PDI PRDV PRODUKTIVITAS PADI Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 18.16290 3.632580 569.24 <.0001 31 0.197826 0.006381 Corrected Total 36 18.36072 Root MSE 0.07988 R-Square 0.98923 Dependent Mean 3.91486 Adj R-Sq 0.98749 Coeff Var 2.04053 Parameter Estimates DF Parameter Estimate Standard t Value Pr > t Intercept 1 0.294107 0.322601 0.91 0.3690 Intercept LHGTPR 1 0.000063 0.000063 1.00 0.3228 HARGA RIIL GABAH TINGKAT PETANI t-1 HPUKR 1-0.00013 0.000056-2.22 0.0340 HARGA RIIL PUPUK UREA TREN 1 0.003366 0.008111 0.42 0.6810 TREND WAKTU KUTA 1 1.743E-6 1.531E-6 1.14 0.2637 KREDIT USAHATANI LPRDV 1 0.925215 0.105945 8.73 <.0001 PRODUKTIVITAS PADI t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.397825 Number of Observations 37 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.28772 84

Lampiran 5. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model Dependent HRGA_GBH HGTPR HARGA RIIL GABAH TINGKAT PETANI Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 7808059 2602686 64.18 <.0001 33 1338168 40550.56 Corrected Total 36 9174328 Root MSE 201.37168 R-Square 0.85369 Dependent Mean 1136.96932 Adj R-Sq 0.84039 Coeff Var 17.71127 Parameter Estimates DF Parameter Estimate Standard t Value Pr > t Intercept 1 1052.998 316.0538 3.33 0.0021 Intercept HDPPR 1 0.633910 0.129741 4.89 <.0001 HARGA RIIL PEMBELIAN PEMERINTAH PRDP 1-0.02150 0.006364-3.38 0.0019 PRODUKSI PADI LHGTPR 1 0.335289 0.150242 2.23 0.0325 HARGA RIIL GABAH TINGKAT PETANI t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.260453 Number of Observations 37 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.326289 85

Lampiran 6. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Jumlah Impor Beras The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model Dependent IMPR_BRS IMPR JUMLAH IMPOR BERAS Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 13360772 2672154 3.82 0.0083 31 21703357 700108.3 Corrected Total 36 35958192 Root MSE 836.72473 R-Square 0.38104 Dependent Mean 1014.78135 Adj R-Sq 0.28121 Coeff Var 82.45370 Parameter Estimates DF Parameter Estimate Standard t Value Pr > t Intercept 1-2661.55 1889.381-1.41 0.1689 Intercept HIMPR 1-0.13406 0.131330-1.02 0.3153 HARGA RIIL BERAS IMPOR INDONESIA PRDB 1-0.28356 0.162258-1.75 0.0904 PRODUKSI BERAS JPDK 1 64.76731 33.05602 1.96 0.0591 JUMLAH PENDUDUK LSTOK 1-0.38637 0.215835-1.79 0.0832 STOK BERAS t-1 LIMPR 1 0.362066 0.144700 2.50 0.0178 JUMLAH IMPOR BERAS t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.879544 Number of Observations 37 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.0586 86

Lampiran 7. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Permintaan Beras The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model Dependent DEMD_BRS QDBR PERMINTAAN BERAS Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 1.3135E9 2.6271E8 340.66 <.0001 31 23906508 771177.7 Corrected Total 36 1.3402E9 Root MSE 878.16722 R-Square 0.98213 Dependent Mean 24455.8784 Adj R-Sq 0.97924 Coeff Var 3.59082 Parameter Estimates DF Parameter Estimate Standard t Value Pr > t Intercept 1-10519.9 3489.684-3.01 0.0051 Intercept HBINR 1-1.63752 0.675164-2.43 0.0213 HARGA RIIL BERAS INDONESIA LHJTPR 1 0.872939 0.921118 0.95 0.3506 HARGA RIIL JAGUNG TINGKAT PETANI t-1 INCKR 1 0.000242 0.000598 0.40 0.6890 PENDAPATAN RIIL PER KAPITA JPDK 1 187.4952 50.24146 3.73 0.0008 JUMLAH PENDUDUK LQDBR 1 0.146603 0.212950 0.69 0.4963 PERMINTAAN BERAS t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.958298 Number of Observations 37 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.02967 87

Lampiran 8. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Harga Riil Beras Indonesia The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model Dependent HRGA_BRS HBINR HARGA RIIL BERAS INDONESIA Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 36791423 12263808 149.21 <.0001 33 2712360 82192.72 Corrected Total 36 39498250 Root MSE 286.69272 R-Square 0.93134 Dependent Mean 1828.83232 Adj R-Sq 0.92510 Coeff Var 15.67627 Parameter Estimates DF Parameter Estimate Standard t Value Pr > t Intercept 1 294.8396 234.1200 1.26 0.2167 Intercept QSBR 1-0.00923 0.008427-1.10 0.2813 PENAWARAN BERAS HDPPR 1 1.692716 0.290975 5.82 <.0001 HARGA RIIL PEMBELIAN PEMERINTAH LHBINR 1 0.110942 0.172284 0.64 0.5241 HARGA RIIL BERAS INDONESIA t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.961284 Number of Observations 37 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.450231 88

Lampiran 9. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model Dependent HRGA_IMP HIMPR HARGA RIIL BERAS IMPOR INDONESIA Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 1.8052E8 60173275 102.09 <.0001 33 19451512 589439.8 Corrected Total 36 1.9997E8 Root MSE 767.74980 R-Square 0.90273 Dependent Mean 1795.64884 Adj R-Sq 0.89389 Coeff Var 42.75612 Parameter Estimates DF Parameter Estimate Standard t Value Pr > t Intercept 1-44.8235 198.1968-0.23 0.8225 Intercept HBRDR 1 0.535943 0.098196 5.46 <.0001 HARGA RIIL BERAS DUNIA LTRIF 1 0.672659 0.692410 0.97 0.3384 TARIF IMPOR BERAS t-1 LHIMPR 1 0.496565 0.072208 6.88 <.0001 HARGA RIIL BERAS IMPOR INDONESIA t-1 Durbin-Watson 2.585927 Number of Observations 37 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.32268 89

Lampiran 10. Hasil Validasi Model The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model s 20 Endogenous 10 Exogenous 10 Parameters 36 Equations 10 Number of Statements 20 Program Lag Length 1 The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= SASUSER.PADI Solution Summary s Solved 10 Simulation Lag Length 1 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 8.24E-13 Maximum Iterations 2 Total Iterations 74 Average Iterations 2 Observations Processed Read 38 Lagged 1 Solved 37 First 2 Last 38 s Solved For AREA PRDV HGTPR IMPR QDBR HBINR HIMPR PRDP PRDB QSBR 90

Lampiran 10. Lanjutan The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics N Obs N Mean Actual Std Dev Mean Predicted Std Dev AREA 37 37 10331.6 1340.3 10548.4 1193.4 LUAS AREAL PANEN PADI PRDV 37 37 3.9149 0.7142 3.8688 0.6737 PRODUKTIVITAS PADI HGTPR 37 37 1137.0 504.8 1132.5 451.0 HARGA RIIL GABAH TINGKAT PETANI IMPR 37 37 1014.8 999.4 942.3 509.6 JUMLAH IMPOR BERAS QDBR 37 37 24455.9 6101.5 24488.9 6038.1 PERMINTAAN BERAS HBINR 37 37 1828.8 1047.5 1810.5 1001.8 HARGA RIIL BERAS INDONESIA HIMPR 37 37 1795.6 2356.9 1776.4 2214.0 HARGA RIIL BERAS IMPOR INDONESIA PRDP 37 37 41310.8 11903.5 41583.8 11231.2 PRODUKSI PADI PRDB 37 37 26025.8 7499.2 26197.8 7075.6 PRODUKSI BERAS QSBR 37 37 26867.7 7333.2 28872.9 7928.3 PENAWARAN BERAS Statistics of fit N Mean Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs % RMS RMS % R- Square AREA 37 216.9 2.3445 327.5 3.2803 391.0 3.9823 9.2698 LUAS AREAL PANEN PADI PRDV 37-0.0460-0.9061 0.1109 2.8874 0.1296 3.3553 0.9662 PRODUKTIVITAS PADI HGTPR 37-4.4939 4.0485 177.0 17.8566 219.4 23.9484 0.8058 HARGA RIIL GABAH TINGKAT PETANI IMPR 37-72.4447 160.6 572.9 195.3 861.1 405.7 0.2371 JUMLAH IMPOR BERAS QDBR 37 33.0574 0.3591 867.2 3.5746 1122.0 4.4346 0.9652 PERMINTAAN BERAS HBINR 37-18.3757 0.5944 197.8 9.4452 289.1 12.0215 0.9217 HARGA RIIL BERAS INDONESIA HIMPR 37-19.2397 113.2 459.2 138.5 699.6 369.1 0.9094 HARGA RIIL BERAS IMPOR INDONESIA PRDP 37 273.0 1.3705 1007.7 2.8176 1212.7 3.6860 0.9893 PRODUKSI PADI PRDB 37 172.0 1.3705 634.8 2.8176 764.0 3.6860 0.9893 PRODUKSI BERAS QSBR 37 2005.2 7.6076 2143.3 7.9808 2666.5 9.2698 0.8641 PENAWARAN BERAS 91

Lampiran 10. Lanjutan The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Theil Forecast Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions Inequality Coef N MSE Corr (R) Bias (UM) Reg (UR) Dist (UD) Var (US) Covar (UC) U1 U AREA 37 152873 0.97 0.31 0.08 0.61 0.14 0.55 0.0375 0.0186 LUAS AREAL PANEN PADI PRDV 37 0.0168 0.99 0.13 0.05 0.82 0.09 0.78 0.0326 0.0164 PRODUKTIVITAS PADI HGTPR 37 48142.1 0.90 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.06 0.94 0.1768 0.0893 HARGA RIIL GABAH TINGKAT PETANI IMPR 37 741416 0.49 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.31 0.68 0.6086 0.3468 JUMLAH IMPOR BERAS QDBR 37 1258973 0.98 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.0446 0.0223 PERMINTAAN BERAS HBINR 37 83579.5 0.96 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.02 0.97 0.1376 0.0694 HARGA RIIL BERAS INDONESIA HIMPR 37 489481 0.95 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.04 0.96 0.2382 0.1216 HARGA RIIL BERAS IMPOR INDONESIA PRDP 37 1470549 1.00 0.05 0.26 0.69 0.30 0.65 0.0282 0.0141 PRODUKSI PADI PRDB 37 583661 1.00 0.05 0.26 0.69 0.30 0.65 0.0282 0.0141 PRODUKSI BERAS QSBR 37 7110169 0.98 0.57 0.08 0.35 0.05 0.39 0.0958 0.0462 PENAWARAN BERAS The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Theil Relative Change Forecast Statistics Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions Inequality Coef N MSE Corr (R) Bias (UM) Reg (UR) Dist (UD) Var (US) Covar (UC) U1 U AREA 37 0.00159 0.56 0.34 0.21 0.45 0.01 0.65 1.1674 0.4741 LUAS AREAL PANEN PADI PRDV 37 0.00117 0.54 0.07 0.54 0.39 0.16 0.77 1.0725 0.4752 PRODUKTIVITAS PADI HGTPR 37 0.0528 0.60 0.00 0.09 0.91 0.03 0.97 0.8300 0.4452 HARGA RIIL GABAH TINGKAT PETANI IMPR 37 13.6880 0.85 0.11 0.51 0.38 0.30 0.60 0.8078 0.3229 JUMLAH IMPOR BERAS QDBR 37 0.00204 0.41 0.00 0.31 0.69 0.00 1.00 0.9333 0.4560 PERMINTAAN BERAS HBINR 37 0.0223 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.18 0.82 0.7213 0.4261 HARGA RIIL BERAS INDONESIA HIMPR 37 13.0732 0.20 0.04 0.80 0.15 0.33 0.63 2.4675 0.7066 HARGA RIIL BERAS IMPOR INDONESIA PRDP 37 0.00143 0.73 0.14 0.31 0.55 0.07 0.79 0.7396 0.3181 PRODUKSI PADI PRDB 37 0.00143 0.73 0.14 0.31 0.55 0.07 0.79 0.7396 0.3181 PRODUKSI BERAS QSBR 36 0.00917 0.51 0.67 0.16 0.17 0.03 0.30 1.7742 0.5383 PENAWARAN BERAS 92

Lampiran 11. Hasil Simulasi Model 1. Kenaikan HGTPR Sebesar 9 persen No. Persamaan Dasar Perubahan % Perubahan 1. AREA 10,548.4 10,548.4 0 Luas Areal Panen Padi 2. PRDV 3.8688 3.9348 1.71 Produktivitas Padi 3. HGTPR 1,132.5 1,234.425 9.00 Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani 4. IMPR 942.3 751.2-20.28 Jumlah Impor Beras 5. QDBR 24,488.9 24,493.8 0.02 Permintaan Beras 6. HBINR 1,810.5 1,807.9-0.14 Harga Riil Beras Indonesia 7. HIMPR 1,776.4 1,776.4 0 Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia 8. PRDP 41,583.8 42,273.8 1.66 Produksi Padi 9. PRDB 26,197.8 26,632.5 1.66 Produksi Beras 10. QSBR 28,872.9 29,116.5 0.84 Penawaran Beras 2. Kenaikan HDPPR Sebesar 8 persen No. Persamaan Dasar Perubahan % Perubahan 1. AREA 10,548.4 10,548.4 0 Luas Areal Panen Padi 2. PRDV 3.8688 3.8958 0.70 Produktivitas Padi 3. HGTPR 1,132.5 1192.4 5.29 Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani 4. IMPR 942.3 861.9-8.53 Jumlah Impor Beras 5. QDBR 24,488.9 24,222.3-1.09 Permintaan Beras 6. HBINR 1,810.5 1,951.1 7.77 Harga Riil Beras Indonesia 7. HIMPR 1,776.4 1,776.4 0 Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia 8. PRDP 41,583.8 41,881.9 0.72 Produksi Padi 9. PRDB 26,197.8 26,385.6 0.72 Produksi Beras 10. QSBR 28,872.9 28,980.3 0.37 Penawaran Beras 3. Kenaikan HPUKR Sebesar 4 persen No. Persamaan Dasar Perubahan % Perubahan 1. AREA 10,548.4 10,548.4 0 Luas Areal Panen Padi 2. PRDV 3.8688 3.8405-0.73 Produktivitas Padi 3. HGTPR 1,132.5 1,142.10 0.85 Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani 4. IMPR 942.3 1,025.7 8.85 Jumlah Impor Beras 5. QDBR 24,488.9 24,486.8-0.01 Permintaan Beras 6. HBINR 1,810.5 1,811.6 0.06 Harga Riil Beras Indonesia 7. HIMPR 1,776.4 1,776.4 0 Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia 8. PRDP 41,583.8 41,276.3-0.74 Produksi Padi 9. PRDB 26,197.8 26,004.1-0.74 Produksi Beras 10. QSBR 28,872.9 28,762.5-0.38 Penawaran Beras 4. Penurunan AREA Sebesar 1 persen No. Persamaan Dasar Perubahan % Perubahan 1. AREA 10,548.4 10,442.9-1.00 Luas Areal Panen Padi 2. PRDV 3.8688 3.8898 0.54 Produktivitas Padi 3. HGTPR 1,132.5 1,163.4 2.73 Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani 4. IMPR 942.3 1,210.3 28.44 Jumlah Impor Beras 5. QDBR 24,488.9 24,482.3-0.03 Permintaan Beras 6. HBINR 1,810.5 1,813.9 0.19 Harga Riil Beras Indonesia 7. HIMPR 1,776.4 1,776.4 0 Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia 8. PRDP 41,583.8 40,637.5-2.28 Produksi Padi 9. PRDB 26,197.8 25,601.6-2.28 Produksi Beras 10. QSBR 28,872.9 28,544.7-1.14 Penawaran Beras 93

Lampiran 11. Lanjutan 5. Kenaikan JPDK Sebesar 0.04 persen No. Persamaan Dasar Perubahan % Perubahan 1. AREA 10,548.4 10,548.4 0 Luas Areal Panen Padi 2. PRDV 3.8688 3.8688 0 Produktivitas Padi 3. HGTPR 1,132.5 1,132.5 0 Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani 4. IMPR 942.3 949.4 0.75 Jumlah Impor Beras 5. QDBR 24,488.9 24,504.6 0.06 Permintaan Beras 6. HBINR 1,810.5 1,810.4-0.01 Harga Riil Beras Indonesia 7. HIMPR 1,776.4 1,776.4 0 Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia 8. PRDP 41,583.8 41,583.8 0 Produksi Padi 9. PRDB 26,197.8 26,197.8 0 Produksi Beras 10. QSBR 28,872.9 28,880.0 0.61 Penawaran Beras 6. Kenaikan CRAH Sebesar 10 persen No. Persamaan Dasar Perubahan % Perubahan 1. AREA 10,548.4 11,301.0 7.13 Luas Areal Panen Padi 2. PRDV 3.8688 3.8309-0.98 Produktivitas Padi 3. HGTPR 1,132.5 1,048.5-7.42 Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani 4. IMPR 942.3 217.5-76.92 Jumlah Impor Beras 5. QDBR 24,488.9 24,507.6 0.08 Permintaan Beras 6. HBINR 1,810.5 1,800.6-0.55 Harga Riil Beras Indonesia 7. HIMPR 1,776.4 1,776.4 0 Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia 8. PRDP 41,583.8 44,245.4 6.40 Produksi Padi 9. PRDB 26,197.8 27,874.6 6.40 Produksi Beras 10. QSBR 28,872.9 29,824.9 3.30 Penawaran Beras 7. Penurunan TRIF Sebesar 0.8 persen No. Persamaan Dasar Perubahan % Perubahan 1. AREA 10,548.4 10,548.4 0 Luas Areal Panen Padi 2. PRDV 3.8688 3.8688 0 Produktivitas Padi 3. HGTPR 1,132.5 1,132.5 0 Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani 4. IMPR 942.3 942.6 0.03 Jumlah Impor Beras 5. QDBR 24,488.9 24,488.9 0 Permintaan Beras 6. HBINR 1,810.5 1,810.5 0 Harga Riil Beras Indonesia 7. HIMPR 1,776.4 1,775.3-0.06 Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia 8. PRDP 41,583.8 41,583.8 0 Produksi Padi 9. PRDB 26,197.8 26,197.8 0 Produksi Beras 10. QSBR 28,872.9 28,873.1 0.00069 Penawaran Beras 94

Lampiran 12. Model Permintaan dan Penawaran Beras di Indonesia Lag Tarif Impor Penawaran Beras Stok Beras Kredit Usahatani Harga Riil Beras Dunia Lag Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia Lag Jumlah Impor Beras Lag Stok Beras Harga Riil Jagung Tingkat Petani Curah Hujan Faktor Konversi Luas Areal Panen Padi Harga Riil Beras Impor Indonesia Jumlah Impor Beras Jumlah Penduduk Lag Luas Areal Panen Padi Harga Riil Pupuk Urea Lag Produktivitas Padi Trend Waktu Produktivitas Padi Produksi Padi Produksi Beras Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani Lag Harga Riil Gabah Tingkat Petani Harga Riil Pembelian Pemerintah Permintaan Beras Harga Riil Beras Indonesia Pendapatan Riil Per Kapita Lag Harga Riil Jagung Tingkat Petani Lag Permintaan Beras Variabel Endogen: Variabel Eksogen: Lag Harga Riil Beras Indonesia Sumber: Peneliti, 2010 95