Lampiran 1. Jumlah Penduduk Sumatera Utara (1996-2010) Tahun Jumlah Penduduk 1996 11.306.300 1997 11.463.400 1998 11.754.100 1999 11.955.400 2000 11.513.973 2001 11.722.548 2002 11.847.075 2003 11.890.399 2004 12.123.360 2005 12.326.678 2006 12.643.494 2007 12.834.371 2008 13.042.317 2009 13.243.386 2010 12.982.204 Sumber : BPS, 2012.
Lampiran 2. Luas Panen, Produktivitas dan Produksi Ubi Kayu (1996-2010) No. Tahun Luas Panen (Ha) Produktivitas (Kw/Ha) Produksi (Ton) 1. 1996 35.246 120 421.460 2. 1997 37.436 120 449.026 3. 1998 40.917 119 488.149 4. 1999 41.235 119 490.601 5. 2000 40.315 119 480.128 6. 2001 41.233 123 507.519 7. 2002 36.119 122 441.819 8. 2003 33.452 123 411.990 9. 2004 37.313 125 464.960 10. 2005 40.717 125 509.796 11. 2006 35.996 126 452.450 12. 2007 34.812 125,98 438.573 13. 2008 37.941 194,19 736.771 14. 2009 38.611 260,88 1.007.284 15. 2010 32.402 279,48 905.571 563.745 2.201,53 7.198,813 Rataan 37.583 146,7687 479,9209 Sumber : BPS, 2012.
Lampiran 3. Luas Panen, Produktivitas dan Produksi Ubi Jalar (1996-2010) No. Tahun Luas Panen (Ha) Produktivitas (Kw/Ha) Produksi (Ton) 1. 1996 13.438 88 118.348 2. 1997 12.568 89 111.156 3. 1998 12.015 89 106.618 4. 1999 14.304 94 134.642 5. 2000 13.631 93 126.961 6. 2001 12.464 95 118.183 7. 2002 12.405 95 118.170 8. 2003 14.280 95 135.661 9. 2004 12.227 95,93 117.295 10. 2005 12.014 96,33 115.728 11. 2006 10.630 96,62 102.712 12. 2007 12.129 96,99 117.641 13. 2008 10.316 110,69 114.186 14. 2009 12.359 113,39 140.138 15. 2010 14.874 120,61 179.388 189.654 1468.56 1856.827 Rataan 12.6436 97.904 123.7885 Sumber : BPS, 2012.
Lampiran 4. Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Penduduk Sumatera Utara (1996-2010) Tahun Konsumsi Ubi Kayu (Kg/Kap/Tahun) Jumlah Penduduk (Jiwa) Total Konsumsi Ubi Kayu (Ton) 1996 7,76 11.306.300 87.736,888 1997 7,76 11.463.400 88.955,984 1998 7,76 11.754.100 91.211,816 1999 7,76 11.955.400 92.773,904 2000 7,76 11.513.973 89.348,430 2001 7,76 11.722.548 90.966,972 2002 15,8 11.847.075 187.183,785 2003 15,8 11.890.399 187.868,304 2004 15,8 12.123.360 191.549,088 2005 19,4 12.326.678 239.137,553 2006 19,4 12.643.494 245.283,784 2007 11,0 12.834.371 141.178,081 2008 8,62 13.042.317 112.424,773 2009 7,49 13.243.386 99.192,961 2010 17,61 12.982.204 228.616,612 Total 2.173.428,936 Rataan 144.895,262 Sumber : BKP, 2012.
Lampiran 5. Konsumsi Ubi Jalar Penduduk Sumatera Utara (1996-2010) Tahun Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Kg/Kap/Tahun) Jumlah Penduduk (Jiwa) Total Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Ton) 1996 2,93 11.306.300 33.127,459 1997 2,93 11.463.400 33.587,762 1998 2,93 11.754.100 34.439,513 1999 2,93 11.955.400 35.029,322 2000 2,93 11.513.973 33.735,941 2001 2,93 11.722.548 34.347,066 2002 3,40 11.847.075 40.280,055 2003 3,40 11.890.399 40.427,357 2004 3,40 12.123.360 41.219,424 2005 1,90 12.326.678 23.420,688 2006 1,90 12.643.494 24.022,639 2007 1,60 12.834.371 20.534,994 2008 1,31 13.042.317 17.085,435 2009 0,79 13.243.386 10.462,275 2010 1,28 12.982.204 16.617,221 Total 438.337,149 Rataan 29.222,477 Sumber : BKP, 2012.
Lampiran 6. Trend Produksi Ubi Kayu dengan Metode Least Square 547073.133 27564.229 Tahun Produksi Ubi Kayu X X 2 XY Y' Y-Y' (Y-Y') 2 1996 421460-7 49-2950220 354123.53 67336.47 4534200192 1997 449026-6 36-2694156 381687.759 67338.241 4534438701 1998 488149-5 25-2440745 409251.988 78897.012 6224738503 1999 490601-4 16-1962404 436816.217 53784.783 2892802882 2000 480128-3 9-1440384 464380.446 15747.554 247985457 2001 507519-2 4-1015038 491944.675 15574.325 242559599.2 2002 441819-1 1-441819 519508.904-77689.904 6035721184 2003 411990 0 0 0 547073.133-135083.133 18247452821 2004 464960 1 1 464960 574637.362-109677.362 12029123735 2005 509796 2 4 1019592 602201.591-92405.591 8538793248 2006 452450 3 9 1357350 629765.82-177315.82 31440900022 2007 438573 4 16 1754292 657330.049-218757.049 47854646487 2008 736771 5 25 3683855 684894.278 51876.722 2691194285 2009 1007284 6 36 6043704 712458.507 294825.493 86922071323 2010 905571 7 49 6338997 740022.736 165548.264 27406227713 Jumlah 8206097 280 7717984 2.59843E+11
Metode least square Tahun Y Y' 1996 421460 354123.53 1997 449026 381687.759 1998 488149 409251.988 1999 490601 436816.217 2000 480128 464380.446 2001 507519 491944.675 2002 441819 519508.904 2003 411990 547073.133 2004 464960 574637.362 2005 509796 602201.591 2006 452450 629765.82 2007 438573 657330.049 2008 736771 684894.278 2009 1007284 712458.507 2010 905571 740022.736 Trend Produksi Ubi kayu dengan Metode least square Produksi (ton) 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1995199619971998199920002001200 200320042005200620072008200920102011 tahun Y Y'
Lampiran 7. Trend Produksi Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Least Square Tahun Produksi Ubi Jalar (Y) X XY X 2 Y' Y-Y' (Y-Y') 2 1996 118348-7 -828436 49 111476.567 6871.433333 47216596.05 1997 111156-6 -666936 36 113235.41-2079.409524 4323943.968 1998 106618-5 -533090 25 114994.252-8376.252381 70161603.95 1999 134642-4 -538568 16 116753.095 17888.90476 320012913.6 2000 126961-3 -380883 9 118511.938 8449.061905 71386647.07 2001 118183-2 -236366 4 120270.781-2087.780952 4358829.305 2002 118170-1 -118170 1 122029.624-3859.62381 14896695.95 2003 135661 0 0 0 123788.467 11872.53333 140957047.8 2004 117295 1 117295 1 125547.31-8252.309524 68100612.48 2005 115728 2 231456 4 127306.152-11578.15238 134053612.6 2006 102712 3 308136 9 129064.995-26352.99524 694480358 2007 117641 4 470564 16 130823.838-13182.8381 173787220.2 2008 114186 5 570930 25 132582.681-18396.68095 338437870.1 2009 140138 6 840828 36 134341.524 5796.47619 33599136.23 2010 179388 7 1255716 49 136100.367 43287.63333 1873819200 Jumlah 1856827 492476 280 3,989,592,286.82
Metode Least Square Tahun Y Y' 1996 118348 111476.5667 1997 111156 113235.4095 1998 106618 114994.2524 1999 134642 116753.0952 2000 126961 118511.9381 2001 118183 120270.781 2002 118170 122029.6238 2003 135661 123788.4667 2004 117295 125547.3095 2005 115728 127306.1524 2006 102712 129064.9952 2007 117641 130823.8381 2008 114186 132582.681 2009 140138 134341.5238 2010 179388 136100.3667 200000 Trend Produksi Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Trend Least Square produksi (ton) 150000 100000 50000 0 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 tahun Y Y'
Lampiran 8. Trend Konsumsi Ubi Kayu dengan Metode Least Square Tahun Total Konsumsi X XY X 2 Y' Y-Y' (Y-Y') 2 Ubi Kayu (Y) 1996 87736.888-7 -614158.216 49 92000.91358-4264.025583 18181914.18 1997 88955.984-6 -533735.904 36 99557.24912-10601.26512 112386822.1 1998 91211.816-5 -456059.08 25 107113.5847-15901.76865 252866246.3 1999 92773.904-4 -371095.616 16 114669.9202-21896.01619 479435525 2000 89348.43-3 -268045.29 9 122226.2557-32877.82573 1080951424 2001 90966.972-2 -181933.944 4 129782.5913-38815.61926 1506652299 2002 187183.785-1 -187183.785 1 137338.9268 49844.8582 2484509889 2003 187868.304 0 0 0 144895.2623 42973.04167 1846682310 2004 191549.088 1 191549.088 1 152451.5979 39097.49013 1528613735 2005 239137.553 2 478275.106 4 160007.9334 79129.6196 6261496697 2006 245283.784 3 735851.352 9 167564.2689 77719.51506 6040323021 2007 141178.081 4 564712.324 16 175120.6045-33942.52348 1152094900 2008 112424.773 5 562123.865 25 182676.94-70252.16701 4935366970 2009 99192.961 6 595157.766 36 190233.2755-91040.31455 8288338873 2010 228616.612 7 1600316.284 49 197789.6111 30827.00092 950303985.5 Jumlah 2173428.935 2115773.95 280 36,938,204,611.29
Metode Least Square Tahun Y Y' 1996 87736.888 92000.91358 1997 88955.984 99557.24912 1998 91211.816 107113.5847 1999 92773.904 114669.9202 2000 89348.43 122226.2557 2001 90966.972 129782.5913 2002 187183.785 137338.9268 2003 187868.304 144895.2623 2004 191549.088 152451.5979 2005 239137.553 160007.9334 2006 245283.784 167564.2689 2007 141178.081 175120.6045 2008 112424.773 182676.94 2009 99192.961 190233.2755 2010 228616.612 197789.6111 Trend Total Konsumsi Ubi Kayu dengan Metode trend Least Square konsumsi 9ton0 300000 200000 100000 0 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 tahun Y Y'
Lampiran 9. Trend Konsumsi Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Least Square Tahun Total Konsumsi Ubi Jalar (Y) X XY X 2 Y' Y-Y' (Y-Y') 2 1996 33127.459-7 -231892.213 49 40450.61622-7323.157221 53628631.69 1997 33587.762-6 -201526.572 36 38846.59628-5258.834283 27655338.02 1998 34439.513-5 -172197.565 25 37242.57635-2803.063346 7857164.12 1999 35029.322-4 -140117.288 16 35638.55641-609.2344079 371166.5638 2000 33735.94089-3 -101207.823 9 34034.53647-298.5955801 89159.32046 2001 34347.06564-2 -68694.1313 4 32430.51653 1916.549108 3673160.482 2002 40280.055-1 -40280.055 1 30826.49659 9453.558405 89369766.52 2003 40427.3566 0 0 0 29222.47666 11204.87994 125549334.5 2004 41219.424 1 41219.424 1 27618.45672 13600.96728 184986311 2005 23420.6882 2 46841.3764 4 26014.43678-2593.748581 6727531.703 2006 24022.6386 3 72067.9158 9 24410.41684-387.7782435 150371.9661 2007 20534.9936 4 82139.9744 16 22806.39691-2271.403306 5159272.977 2008 17085.43527 5 85427.17635 25 21202.37697-4116.941698 16949208.94 2009 10462.27494 6 62773.64964 36 19598.35703-9136.08209 83467995.96 2010 16617.22111 7 116320.5478 49 17994.33709-1377.11598 1896448.423 Jumlah 438337.1499-449125.583 280 607,530,862.21
Metode Least Square Tahun Y Y' 1996 33127.459 40450.616 1997 33587.762 38846.596 1998 34439.513 37242.576 1999 35029.322 35638.556 2000 33735.941 34034.536 2001 34347.065 32430.517 2002 40280.055 30826.487 2003 40427.357 29222.477 2004 41219.424 27618.457 2005 23420.688 26014.437 2006 24022.639 24410.417 2007 20534.994 22806.397 2008 17085.435 21202.377 2009 10462.275 19598.357 2010 16617.221 17994.337 Trend Total Konsumsu Ubi Jalar dengan Metode Least Square konsumsi (ton) 60000 40000 20000 0 1995199619971998199920002001200 200320042005200620072008200920102011 tahun Y Y'
Lampiran 10. Peramalan Produksi dan Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Sumatera Utara (2015-2025) Tahun Notasi Produksi Ubi Kayu Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Tahun (Ton) (Ton) (X) (Y1) (Y2) 1996-7 421.460 87.736,888 1997-6 449.026 88.955,984 1998-5 488.149 91.211,816 1999-4 490.601 92.773,904 2000-3 480.128 89.348,430 2001-2 507.519 90.966,972 2002-1 441.819 187.183,785 2003 0 411.990 187.868,304 2004 1 464.960 191.549,088 2005 2 509796 239.137,553 2006 3 452.450 245.283,784 2007 4 438.573 141.178,081 2008 5 736.771 112.424,773 2009 6 1.007.284 99.192,961 2010 7 905.571 228.616,612
Produksi Ubi Kayu Regression [DataSet0] Descriptive Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N Produksi Ubi Kayu 5.4707E5 1.83728E5 15 Tahun.0000 4.47214 15 ANOVA b Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 2.127E11 1 2.127E11 10.643.006 a Residual 2.598E11 13 1.999E10 Total 4.726E11 14 a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun b. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Kayu Coefficients a Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients 95% Co Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower B 1 (Constant) 547073.133 36503.801 14.987.000 4682
Tahun 27564.229 8448.988.671 3.262.006 93 a. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Kayu Charts
Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Regression [DataSet0] Descriptive Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N Konsumsi Ubi Kayu 1.4490E5 61485.01702 15 Tahun.00000 4.472136 15
Model Summary b Adjusted R Std. Error of the Change S Model R R Square Square Estimate R Square Change F Change df 1.550 a.302.248 53304.78734.302 5.627 a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun ANOVA b Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 1.599E10 1 1.599E10 5.627.034 a Residual 3.694E10 13 2.841E9 Total 5.293E10 14 a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Coefficients a Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients 95% Co Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower B 1 (Constant) 144895.262 13763.237 10.528.000 1151 Tahun 7556.336 3185.570.550 2.372.034 6
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients a Standardized Coefficients 95% Co Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower B 1 (Constant) 144895.262 13763.237 10.528.000 1151 Tahun 7556.336 3185.570.550 2.372.034 6 a. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Charts
Angka Ramalan Produksi dan Konsumsi Ubi Kayu Tahun 2015-2025 Tahun X Produksi (Ton) Konsumsi (Ton) (Y1 =547073.13 + 27564.23 X) (Y2 = 144895.26-7556.34 X) 2015 12 877843.876 235571.289 2016 13 905408.104 243127.624 2017 14 932972.333 250683.960 2018 15 960536.562 258240.295 2019 16 988100.790 265796.631 2020 17 1015665.019 273352.966 2021 18 1043229.247 280909.302 2022 19 1070793.476 288465.637 2023 20 1098357.704 296021.973 2024 21 1125921.933 303578.309 2025 22 1153486.162 311134.644 Dimana : X = Notasi Tahun (1,2, dst)
Lampiran 11. Peramalan Produksi dan Konsumsi Ubi Jalar Sumatera Tahun Utara (2015-2025) Notasi Produksi Ubi Jalar Konsumsi Ubi Jalar Tahun (Ton) (Ton) (X) (Y1) (Y2) 1996-7 118.348 33.127,459 1997-6 111.156 33.587,762 1998-5 106.618 34.439,513 1999-4 134.642 35.029,322 2000-3 126.961 33.735,941 2001-2 118.183 34.347,066 2002-1 118.170 40.280,055 2003 0 135.661 40.427,357 2004 1 117.295 41.219,424 2005 2 115.728 23.420,688 2006 3 102.712 24.022,639 2007 4 117.641 20.534,994 2008 5 114.186 17.085,435 2009 6 140.138 10.462,275 2010 7 179.388 16.617,221
Produksi Ubi Jalar Regression [DataSet0] Descriptive Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N Produksi Ubi Jalar 1.2379E5 18623.72133 15 Tahun.0000 4.47214 15 Variables Entered/R Va b. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ub Model Variables Entered Re 1 Tahun a a. All requested variables entered. Model Summary b Adjusted R Std. Error of the Change S Model R R Square Square Estimate R Square Change F Change df 1.422 a.178.115 17518.26476.178 2.823 a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun ANOVA b Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 8.662E8 1 8.662E8 2.823.117 a Residual 3.990E9 13 3.069E8 Total 4.856E9 14 a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun
b. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Jalar Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients a Standardized Coefficients 95% Co Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower B 1 (Constant) 123788.333 4523.197 27.367.000 1140 Tahun 1758.893 1046.917.422 1.680.117-5 a. Dependent Variable: Produksi Ubi Jalar
Charts
Konsumsi Ubi Jalar Regression [DataSet0] Descriptive Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N Konsumsi Ubi Jalar 2.9222E4 9739.23307 15 Tahun.00000 4.472136 15 Variables Entered/R Va b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi U Model Variables Entered Re 1 Tahun a a. All requested variables entered. Model Summary b Adjusted R Std. Error of the Change S Model R R Square Square Estimate R Square Change F Change df 1.737 a.543.507 6836.16437.543 15.415 a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun ANOVA b Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 7.204E8 1 7.204E8 15.415.002 a Residual 6.075E8 13 4.673E7 Total 1.328E9 14 a. Predictors: (Constant), Tahun
b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Jalar Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients a Standardized Coefficients 95% Co Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower B 1 (Constant) 29222.477 1765.090 16.556.000 254 Tahun -1604.020 408.539 -.737-3.926.002-24 a. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi Ubi Jalar
Charts