December 28, 2012 ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY RESEARCH DEBT MARKET Indonesia Govt Bonds Benchmark Yield Yield (%) USD/IDR 9,673 0.10 0.16 0.65 EUR/USD 1.32 0.02 0.42 2.33 1 Year 4.42-0.01 0.04-0.18 USD/JPY 86.48 0.44 2.66 5.26 2 Year 4.52-0.03-0.11-0.27 GBP/USD 1.61 0.07-0.36 0.57 3 Year 4.61-0.01-0.06-0.26 TREASURY & MONEY MARKET 4 Year 4.74 0.01-0.15 5 Year 4.83-0.01-0.01-0.20 6 Year 4.94-0.02 0.01-0.19 7 Year 5.04-0.02-0.20 IDR JIBOR 8 Year 5.13-0.01-0.02-0.17 O / N 4.20 0.01 0.02 0.03 9 Year 5.17-0.01-0.03-0.19 1M 4.74 0.06 0.10 0.15 10 Year 5.19-0.01 0.01-0.22 3M 4.99 0.03 0.05 0.08 15 Year 5.91 0.01 USD LIBOR Indonesia Bond Index O / N 0.17 0.01 1M 0.21 3M 0.31 IDMA Index 111.72 0.04-0.10 0.23 BI Rate BI Rate 5.75 7.50 Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve IDR Average Deposit 1M 12M Fed Fund (o/n) 5.32 5.46 0.18 0.05 0.08 0.02 3M Others US T-Bills 1M 5.41 0.02-0.03 0.01-0.19 0.01 6.50 5.50 4.50 US T-Bills 3M 0.07-0.02 0.03 3.50 SIBOR 1M 0.21 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y 4 Y 5 Y 6 Y 7 Y 8 Y 9 Y 10 Y 15 Y EURIBOR 1M 0.11-1 Week -1 Month 300 250 200 150 100 50 Indonesia Sovereign CDS 0 27-Sep 10-Oct 23-Oct 5-Nov 18-Nov 1-Dec 14-Dec 27-Dec 2Y 5Y 10Y Price Yield (%) Volume (RpBn) Most Active Government Bonds FR0064 103.90 5.74 276.8 FR0063 104.54 5.06 198.0 FR0059 110.70 5.89 166.5 FR0065 106.35 6.08 114.1 FR0060 106.00 5.00 101.0 FR0062 101.10 6.29 91.6 FR0034 152.50 5.09 73.0 FR0027 111.00 5.00 21.0 FR0044 137.16 5.62 10.0 FR0031 138.36 5.03 7.0 10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison 3.50 2.50 1.50 0.50 28-Sep 11-Oct 24-Oct 6-Nov 19-Nov 2-Dec 15-Dec 28-Dec Most Active Corporate Bonds ASDF01ACN2 100.09 6.54 302.0 BEXI01ACN2 100.25 5.96 147.0 MEGA01 100.03 11.49 52.0 SMAR01ACN1 10 9.00 36.0 IMFI01ACN1 10 6.49 28.0 BMRI01 110.66 8.64 25.0 ADMF01ACN2 10 6.49 20.0 MEDC01CN1 100.10 8.77 20.0 CFIN03C 102.34 8.87 15.0 BBKP01SBCN1 101.25 8.98 14.0 10Y U.S. Treasury Note 10Y Indonesia Soverign US$ Bond Data Source: Bloomberg & CTP Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities: www.bnisecurities.co.id
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov GDP Real (YoY) 6.49 6.32 6.37 6.17 Private Consumption 4.95 4.94 5.24 5.68 Government Consumption 2.78 5.94 7.35-3.22 Investment (GFCF) 11.52 9.97 12.32 10.02 Inflation CPI (YoY) 4.42 4.15 3.79 3.65 3.56 3.97 4.50 4.45 4.53 4.56 4.58 4.31 4.61 4.32 CPI (MoM) -0.12 0.34 0.57 0.76 0.05 0.07 0.21 0.07 0.62 0.70 0.95 0.01 0.16 0.07 Consumption Motorcycle Sales (Units) 715,176 642,126 460,535 645,863 666,136 619,678 617,508 611,251 541,918 579,077 429,236 620,499 626,901 621,224 Automobile Sales (Units) 86,345 67,655 80,325 76,427 86,482 87,919 87,145 95,536 101,746 102,512 76,445 102,113 106,744 103,699 Consumer Confidence Index 116.20 114.30 116.60 119.20 111.70 107.30 102.50 109.00 114.40 113.50 115.70 117.70 119.50 120.10 Foreign Trade Current Account (USD mn) 1,424.30 1,841.60 602.10 1,015.50 828.60 925.80-764.70-207.20-1,286.00-263.80 233.10 549.50-1,547.00 Export (YoY) 17.80 10.20 1.50 6.60 8.90 5.40-2.30-8.00-16.00-7.60-24.70-9.40-7.60 Import (YoY) 28.16 18.35 25.32 15.89 26.53 12.70 13.77 14.91 10.98 0.91-8.37 1.18 10.82 Reserves Foreign Reserve (USD bn) 113.96 111.32 110.12 111.99 112.22 110.49 116.41 111.53 106.50 106.56 108.99 110.17 110.30 111.29 Net Int'l Reserve (IDR tn) 972.24 985.15 965.87 980.78 991.69 981.89 1020.77 1015.99 968.45 977.16 1008.23 1023.02 1025.91 1034.39 Moneter (YoY) M1 Money Supply 19.70 16.85 19.42 15.25 16.62 23.02 23.31 22.50 22.51 20.65 16.54 21.25 17.55 M2 Money Supply 15.98 16.26 16.43 17.17 17.75 18.79 20.24 20.88 20.91 19.12 17.84 18.24 18.30 Financial Sector BI rate (% p.a.) 6.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 SUN 10 years (%) 6.34 6.73 6.03 5.34 5.56 5.93 5.96 6.51 6.15 5.71 6.26 5.97 5.71 5.38 Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD, end of period) 8,870 9,080 9,075 9,005 9,035 9,143 9,192 9,485 9,385 9,445 9,539 9,579 9,605 9,593 Source: Bloomberg & CEIC Government Bond Ownership as of December 12, 2012 (Rp tn) Holders Dec-11 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 7-Dec-12 11-Dec-12 12-Dec-12 Banks 265.03 293.16 297.80 300.16 297.98 286.41 290.61 317.43 311.7 304.02 301.4 300.11 302.64 Bank Indonesia 7.84 3.12 2.15 9.84 20.36 31.48 31.57 4.63 10.62 6.23 7.45 9.26 7.33 Mutual Fund 47.22 46.95 48.52 48.20 48.60 48.60 47.22 47.01 46.49 45.87 45.35 45.35 45.33 Insurance Companies 93.09 100.63 102.94 104.73 106.86 107.15 108.98 109.54 108.02 108.05 95.11 95.13 95.13 Foreign Investor 222.86 224.72 228.87 224.50 224.42 234.56 233.15 240.98 250.33 269.85 273.61 273.20 272.13 Pension Fund 34.39 33.93 33.98 34.80 34.56 34.04 34.59 34.35 35.8 35.29 47.92 47.97 48.01 Securities Companies 0.14 0.53 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.37 0.63 0.51 0.41 0.33 0.3 0.3 0.3 Others 53.05 57.54 57.85 57.77 58.14 57.06 56.30 58.35 70.63 64.92 64.60 64.42 63.88 Total 723.61 760.58 772.33 780.27 791.18 799.66 803.05 812.80 834.00 834.56 835.74 835.75 834.75 Source: DMO NEWS Proyek Pertambangan MP3EI Banyak Tertunda di 2012 Ditjen Pajak Ekstensifikasi dengan Data Pajak Proyek investasi sektor pertambangan yang masuk dalam agenda pelaksanaan Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia (MP3EI) tahun ini tercatat banyak yang dibatalkan groundbreaking-nya. Banyaknya pembatalan proyek di sektor pertambangan tahun ini disebabkan tidak jelasnya masalah royalty, kepastian hukum dan masalah divestasi. Hal tersebut membuat investor kembali melakukan renegoisasi kontrak yang dilakukan tahun ini. Pembatalan tersebut berdampak pada pelaksanaan di sebagian koridor ekonomi tahun ini tidak mencapai target yang diharapkan. Salah satu investasi besar yang tertunda adalah investasi perluasan dan pengembangan PT. Freeport di koridor Papua-Maluku. Nilai investasi yang seharusnya dapat tercatat tahun ini mencapai Rp 145 triliun, selain itu sektor pertambangan lainya di koridor Sulawesi juga banyak yang dibatalkan tahun ini. Berdasarkan data validasi terakhir sekertariat KP3EI tahun ini groundbreaking proyek MP3EI yang selesai sesuai target terjadi pada koridor Jawa, Kalimantan dan Sulawesi, Sedangkan Koridor Sumatera baru selesai 17%, Bali-Nusa Tenggara 37% dan Papua-Maluku 6%. Direktorat Jendral Pajak Kementerian Keuangan akan melakukan upaya ekstensifikasi dengan mewajibkan kementerian/lembaga dan pihak swasta menyerahkan data pajak untuk menjaring lebih banyak pembayar pajak. Upaya ini dilakukan juga untuk memperbaiki bank data Direktorat Jenderal Pajak, dan kewajiban untuk menyerahkan data pajak tersebut akan ditetapkan melalui penerbitan Peraturan Menteri Keuangan. Selain itu, kebijakan ini diberlakukan untuk mengantisipasi kekurangan penerimaan pajak melalui sektor perdagangan yang diperkirakan hingga 2013 masih mengalami masalah akibat krisis global. Berdasarkan data Kementerian Keuangan per 21 Desember 2012, penerimaan perpajakan yang mencakup penerimaan pajak, kepabeanan dan cukai mencapai Rp944,8 triliun atau 93,3 persen dari target APBN-Perubahan 2012 sebesar Rp 1.016,2 triliun. Sedangkan pemerintah menargetkan penerimaan perpajakan pada 2013 sebesar Rp1.192 triliun. 2
Government Bond Closing Price as of December 27, 2012 Series Maturity Coupon Price YTM FR0033 15-Mar-13 12.50% 101.96 3.03% FR0019 15-Jun-13 14.25% 104.74 3.76% FR0049 15-Sep-13 9.00% 103.38 4.11% FR0020 15-Dec-13 14.28% 109.41 4.18% FR0051 15-May-14 11.25% 109.18 4.31% FR0026 15-Oct-14 11.00% 111.26 4.40% FR0027 15-Jun-15 9.50% 111.41 4.54% FR0030 15-May-16 10.75% 118.90 4.64% FR0055 15-Sep-16 7.38% 109.13 4.66% FR0060 15-Apr-17 6.25% 106.20 4.64% FR0028 15-Jul-17 1% 121.23 4.75% FR0032 15-Jul-18 15.00% 148.94 4.83% FR0038 15-Aug-18 11.60% 132.94 4.84% FR0048 15-Sep-18 9.00% 120.30 4.88% FR0036 15-Sep-19 11.50% 136.76 4.99% FR0031 15-Nov-20 11.00% 137.91 5.10% FR0034 15-Jun-21 12.80% 151.95 5.15% FR0053 15-Jul-21 8.25% 121.04 5.17% FR0061 15-May-22 7.00% 113.62 5.15% FR0035 15-Jun-22 12.90% 155.61 5.34% FR0043 15-Jul-22 10.25% 136.28 5.35% FR0046 15-Jul-23 9.50% 132.04 5.46% FR0039 15-Aug-23 11.75% 149.98 5.48% FR0044 15-Sep-24 1% 136.82 5.66% FR0040 15-Sep-25 11.00% 146.70 5.76% FR0037 15-Sep-26 12.00% 157.82 5.82% FR0056 15-Sep-26 8.38% 123.57 5.85% FR0059 15-May-27 7.00% 110.80 5.88% FR0042 15-Jul-27 10.25% 141.24 5.97% FR0047 15-Feb-28 1% 139.73 5.97% FR0052 15-Aug-30 10.50% 147.60 6.06% FR0054 15-Jul-31 9.50% 137.01 6.13% FR0058 15-Jun-32 8.25% 122.49 6.24% FR0045 15-May-37 9.75% 141.23 6.39% FR0050 15-Jul-38 10.50% 151.04 6.41% FR0057 15-May-41 9.50% 139.58 6.44% FR0062 15-Apr-42 6.38% 100.42 6.34% Source: Bloomberg 3
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