ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report

December 20, 2012 ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report 300 250 200 150 100 50 FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY Indonesia Sovereign CDS 0 19-Sep 2-Oct 15-Oct 28-Oct 10-Nov 23-Nov 6-Dec 19-Dec 2Y 5Y 10Y RESEARCH DEBT MARKET Indonesia Govt Bonds Benchmark Yield USD/IDR 9,650 0.06 0.31 0.17 EUR/USD 1.32-0.02 2.31 3.20 1 Year 4.31-0.08-0.10-0.39 USD/JPY 84.41 0.24 2.33 3.34 2 Year 4.66-0.01-0.31 GBP/USD 1.62-0.04 1.28 2.02 3 Year 4.65-0.02-0.09-0.33 TREASURY & MONEY MARKET Yield (%) 4 Year 4.76-0.01-0.04-0.25 5 Year 4.84-0.01-0.08-0.22 6 Year 4.94-0.01-0.12-0.25 7 Year 5.06-0.01-0.08-0.22 IDR JIBOR 8 Year 5.17-0.08-0.17 O / N 4.18 0.01 0.01 9 Year 5.17-0.04-0.09-0.18 1M 4.64 0.04 0.04 10 Year 5.19-0.11-0.23 3M 4.94 0.02 0.03 15 Year 5.90-0.02-0.10 USD LIBOR Indonesia Bond Index O / N 0.16 0.01 1M 0.21 3M 0.31 IDMA Index 111.76 0.06 0.33 0.70 BI Rate BI Rate 5.75 7.50 Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve IDR Average Deposit 1M 12M Fed Fund (o/n) 5.30 5.51 0.18-0.01 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.06 3M Others US T-Bills 1M 5.44 0.01-0.01 0.04-0.20 0.02-0.05 6.50 5.50 4.50 US T-Bills 3M 0.05 0.01-0.06 3.50 SIBOR 1M 0.21 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y 4 Y 5 Y 6 Y 7 Y 8 Y 9 Y 10 Y 15 Y EURIBOR 1M 0.11-1 Week -1 Month Price Yield (%) Volume (RpBn) Most Active Government Bonds FR0058 122.00 6.28 1,060.3 FR0061 113.90 5.12 773.8 FR0059 110.85 5.87 663.2 FR0046 130.80 5.60 491.1 FR0064 103.75 5.76 483.9 FR0065 105.76 6.13 306.6 SR004 103.75 4.79 252.3 FR0040 146.45 5.79 236.6 SPN12130606 98.16 4.10 209.9 FR0039 15 5.49 200.0 10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison 3.50 2.50 1.50 0.50 20-Sep 3-Oct 16-Oct 29-Oct 11-Nov 24-Nov 7-Dec 20-Dec Most Active Corporate Bonds ASDF01BCN2 10 7.50 100.0 MEGA01 101.02 11.23 54.0 BNLI01SBCN2 10 9.40 40.0 SANF02A 100.10 7.09 36.0 SSIA01A 100.13 8.25 32.0 SANF02C 101.80 7.46 17.0 SANF02B 100.33 7.38 13.0 BNLI02SB 109.51 8.81 10.0 AGII01 100.10 14.29 8.0 VRNA01C 103.69 8.10 7.8 10Y U.S. Treasury Note 10Y Indonesia Soverign US$ Bond Data Source: Bloomberg & CTP Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities: www.bnisecurities.co.id

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov GDP Real (YoY) 6.49 6.32 6.37 6.17 Private Consumption 4.95 4.94 5.24 5.68 Government Consumption 2.78 5.94 7.35-3.22 Investment (GFCF) 11.52 9.97 12.32 10.02 Inflation CPI (YoY) 4.42 4.15 3.79 3.65 3.56 3.97 4.50 4.45 4.53 4.56 4.58 4.31 4.61 4.32 CPI (MoM) -0.12 0.34 0.57 0.76 0.05 0.07 0.21 0.07 0.62 0.70 0.95 0.01 0.16 0.07 Consumption Motorcycle Sales (Units) 715,176 642,126 460,535 645,863 666,136 619,678 617,508 611,251 541,918 579,077 429,236 620,499 626,901 621,224 Automobile Sales (Units) 86,345 67,655 80,325 76,427 86,482 87,919 87,145 95,536 101,746 102,512 76,445 102,113 106,744 103,699 Consumer Confidence Index 116.20 114.30 116.60 119.20 111.70 107.30 102.50 109.00 114.40 113.50 115.70 117.70 119.50 120.10 Foreign Trade Current Account (USD mn) 1,424.30 1,841.60 602.10 1,015.50 828.60 925.80-764.70-207.20-1,286.00-263.80 233.10 549.50-1,547.00 Export (YoY) 17.80 10.20 1.50 6.60 8.90 5.40-2.30-8.00-16.00-7.60-24.70-9.40-7.60 Import (YoY) 28.16 18.35 25.32 15.89 26.53 12.70 13.77 14.91 10.98 0.91-8.37 1.18 10.82 Reserves Foreign Reserve (USD bn) 113.96 111.32 110.12 111.99 112.22 110.49 116.41 111.53 106.50 106.56 108.99 110.17 110.30 111.29 Net Int'l Reserve (IDR tn) 972.24 985.15 965.87 980.78 991.69 981.89 1020.77 1015.99 968.45 977.16 1008.23 1023.02 1025.91 1034.39 Moneter (YoY) M1 Money Supply 19.70 16.85 19.42 15.25 16.62 23.02 23.31 22.50 22.51 20.65 16.54 21.25 17.55 M2 Money Supply 15.98 16.26 16.43 17.17 17.75 18.79 20.24 20.88 20.91 19.12 17.84 18.24 18.30 Financial Sector BI rate (% p.a.) 6.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 SUN 10 years (%) 6.34 6.73 6.03 5.34 5.56 5.93 5.96 6.51 6.15 5.71 6.26 5.97 5.71 5.38 Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD, end of period) 8,870 9,080 9,075 9,005 9,035 9,143 9,192 9,485 9,385 9,445 9,539 9,579 9,605 9,593 Source: Bloomberg & CEIC Government Bond Ownership as of December 12, 2012 (Rp tn) Holders Dec-11 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 7-Dec-12 11-Dec-12 12-Dec-12 Banks 265.03 293.16 297.80 300.16 297.98 286.41 290.61 317.43 311.7 304.02 301.4 300.11 302.64 Bank Indonesia 7.84 3.12 2.15 9.84 20.36 31.48 31.57 4.63 10.62 6.23 7.45 9.26 7.33 Mutual Fund 47.22 46.95 48.52 48.20 48.60 48.60 47.22 47.01 46.49 45.87 45.35 45.35 45.33 Insurance Companies 93.09 100.63 102.94 104.73 106.86 107.15 108.98 109.54 108.02 108.05 95.11 95.13 95.13 Foreign Investor 222.86 224.72 228.87 224.50 224.42 234.56 233.15 240.98 250.33 269.85 273.61 273.20 272.13 Pension Fund 34.39 33.93 33.98 34.80 34.56 34.04 34.59 34.35 35.8 35.29 47.92 47.97 48.01 Securities Companies 0.14 0.53 0.22 0.27 0.27 0.37 0.63 0.51 0.41 0.33 0.3 0.3 0.3 Others 53.05 57.54 57.85 57.77 58.14 57.06 56.30 58.35 70.63 64.92 64.60 64.42 63.88 Total 723.61 760.58 772.33 780.27 791.18 799.66 803.05 812.80 834.00 834.56 835.74 835.75 834.75 Source: DMO NEWS Waspadai Inflasi dan Neraca Eksternal Neraca Transaksi Berjalan 2013 Diprediksi Defisit 2,7% Ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun depan dihadapkan pada risiko naiknya inflasi karena naiknya upah minimum, memburuknya neraca eksternal yang berpotensi menurunkan nilai tukar rupiah, dan melemahnya harga komoditas yang menjadi mesin pertumbuhan. Diperkirakan investasi dan konsumsi tetap menjadi pendorong utama pertumbuhan ekonomi 2013. Pada tahun depan kuatnya konsumsi masyarakat menjadi salah satu pendorong ekonomi, yang akan diikuti oleh meningkatnya produksi, dan naiknya upah. Hal ini akan membantu meningkatkan pendapatan dan kesempatan kerja yang akan mendorong permintaan. Sementara itu pada tahun depan diperkirakan tidak ada lonjakan besar harga minyak global yang dapat memperburuk kondisi fiskal atau memaksa pemerintah akan menaikkan harga bahan bakar minyak. Defisit perdagangan diperkirakan memburuk dan nilai tukar rupiah akan melemah, tetapi tidak akan menimbulkan utang luar negeri yang parah. Bahkan kondisi pendanaan global akan tetap masuk, dan investor asing akan tetap tertarik untuk berinvestasi di Indonesia. Dalam menjaga fundamental ekonomi Indonesia seharusnya dilakukan dengan mendukung peningkatan pertumbuhan konsumsi masyarakat dan mempermudah masuknya investasi karena kedua sektor tersebut dipastikan masih akan menjadi pendorong ekonomi 2013 di tengah masih buruknya kondisi ekonomi global. Neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia pada tahun depan diperkirakan akan defisit sebesar USD 25,4 miliar atau 2,7% terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Angka ini lebih besar dari tahun ini yang diprediksi defisit sebesar USD 20,6 miliar atau 2,3% dari PDB. Neraca perdagangan Indonesia yang memburuk pada tahun ini, diperkirakan akan berlanjut pada tahun depan, karena kinerja ekspor tahun depan tidak jelas sejalan dengan menurunnya harga komoditas dan volume ekspor. Di sisi lain impor cederung terus meningkat seiring peningkatan impor barang modal. Kondisi tersebut menyebabkan neraca transaksi berjalan akan tetap defisit, dan tekanan terhadap rupiah akan tetap berlanjut, khususnya jika defisit tersebut akan menjadi masalah dari waktu ke waktu. 2

Government Bond Closing Price as of December 19, 2012 Series Maturity Coupon Price YTM FR0033 15-Mar-13 12.50% 102.12 3.25% FR0019 15-Jun-13 14.25% 104.97 3.77% FR0049 15-Sep-13 9.00% 103.51 4.07% FR0020 15-Dec-13 14.28% 109.53 4.27% FR0051 15-May-14 11.25% 109.30 4.32% FR0026 15-Oct-14 11.00% 111.26 4.47% FR0027 15-Jun-15 9.50% 111.38 4.60% FR0030 15-May-16 10.75% 119.02 4.63% FR0055 15-Sep-16 7.38% 109.16 4.67% FR0060 15-Apr-17 6.25% 105.92 4.72% FR0028 15-Jul-17 1% 121.16 4.79% FR0032 15-Jul-18 15.00% 148.82 4.88% FR0038 15-Aug-18 11.60% 132.93 4.86% FR0048 15-Sep-18 9.00% 120.35 4.89% FR0036 15-Sep-19 11.50% 136.80 4.99% FR0031 15-Nov-20 11.00% 137.59 5.15% FR0034 15-Jun-21 12.80% 151.77 5.18% FR0053 15-Jul-21 8.25% 121.04 5.18% FR0061 15-May-22 7.00% 113.51 5.17% FR0035 15-Jun-22 12.90% 155.42 5.37% FR0043 15-Jul-22 10.25% 136.03 5.38% FR0046 15-Jul-23 9.50% 131.78 5.49% FR0039 15-Aug-23 11.75% 149.85 5.50% FR0044 15-Sep-24 1% 136.85 5.66% FR0040 15-Sep-25 11.00% 146.87 5.76% FR0037 15-Sep-26 12.00% 157.74 5.83% FR0056 15-Sep-26 8.38% 123.67 5.84% FR0059 15-May-27 7.00% 110.83 5.87% FR0042 15-Jul-27 10.25% 141.35 5.96% FR0047 15-Feb-28 1% 139.70 5.98% FR0052 15-Aug-30 10.50% 147.56 6.07% FR0054 15-Jul-31 9.50% 137.16 6.12% FR0058 15-Jun-32 8.25% 122.83 6.21% FR0045 15-May-37 9.75% 141.36 6.38% FR0050 15-Jul-38 10.50% 151.29 6.40% FR0057 15-May-41 9.50% 139.91 6.42% FR0062 15-Apr-42 6.38% 100.01 6.37% Source: Bloomberg 3

MACRO & DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Research Department : +62 21 25543946 Fax No : +62 21 57935831 E-mail : research@bnisecurities.co.id Norico Gaman ext. 3934 norico@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Research Josua Pardede ext. 2030 josua.pardede@bnisecurities.co.id Economist Venia Allani Meissalina ext. 2050 venia@bnisecurities.co.id Research Assistant DEBT MARKET TEAM Debt Capital Market Division : +62 21 25543946 Fax No : +62 21 57936934 E-mail : fi@bnisecurities.co.id Sukartono ext. 3974 karton@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Division Andilla Rusnadi ext. 3911 andilla@bnisecurities.co.id Debt Sales 4

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