ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY

January 14, 2013 ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY RESEARCH DEBT MARKET Indonesia Govt Bonds Benchmark Yield USD/IDR 9,893 2.68 2.52 2.65 EUR/USD 1.34 0.19 1.38 1.55 1 Year 4.33 0.00-0.04-0.12 USD/JPY 89.49 0.34 2.46 7.14 2 Year 4.47 0.00-0.04-0.18 GBP/USD 1.61-0.02-0.77-0.27 3 Year 4.61 0.00-0.03-0.12 TREASURY & MONEY MARKET Yield (%) 4 Year 4.70 0.00 0.02-0.10 5 Year 4.68 0.00 0.00-0.21 6 Year 4.92 0.00 0.04-0.13 7 Year 5.18 0.00 0.17 0.06 IDR JIBOR 8 Year 5.26 0.00 0.15 0.04 O / N 4.18 0.00-0.02 0.01 9 Year 5.31 0.00 0.17 0.06 1M 4.63-4.63-4.63-4.61 10 Year 5.23-0.02 0.13 0.00 3M 4.95-4.95-4.96-4.94 15 Year 5.93 0.00 0.14 0.03 USD LIBOR Indonesia Bond Index O / N 0.16 0.00-0.01 0.00 1M 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 3M 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 IDMA Index 114.83-0.12-0.79 2.80 BI Rate BI Rate 5.75 0.00 7.50 Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve IDR Average Deposit 1M 5.27 0.00-0.03-0.03 6.50 3M 5.44 0.00 0.05 0.04 12M Fed Fund (o/n) 5.48 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.03-0.01 0.01-0.01 Others US T-Bills 1M 0.04 0.00-0.17 0.03 5.50 4.50 US T-Bills 3M 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.01 3.50 SIBOR 1M 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y 4 Y 5 Y 6 Y 7 Y 8 Y 9 Y 10 Y 15 Y EURIBOR 1M 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00-1 Week -1 Month 300 250 200 150 100 50 Indonesia Sovereign CDS 0 11-Oct 24-Oct 6-Nov 19-Nov 2-Dec 15-Dec 28-Dec 10-Jan 2Y 5Y 10Y Price Yield (%) Volume (RpBn) Most Active Government Bonds FR0065 104.60 6.22 383.9 FR0061 111.00 5.48 297.8 FR0064 102.31 5.89 240.1 FR0063 103.75 5.15 204.0 FR0052 145.50 6.21 127.4 FR0048 120.42 4.83 120.0 SPN12130208 99.88 2.00 110.0 FR0058 120.50 6.39 103.7 SPN12130307 99.40 4.30 100.0 ZC0005 99.65 3.53 80.0 10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison 3.50 2.50 1.50 0.50 11-Oct 24-Oct 6-Nov 19-Nov 2-Dec 15-Dec 28-Dec 10-Jan Most Active Corporate Bonds ADMF01BCN1 101.50 7.15 30.3 ADMF01CCN3 101.40 8.39 30.0 BNLI01SBCN2 100.85 9.23 23.0 PPLN10A 107.25 7.05 21.0 ASDF01ACN1 100.08 5.98 12.0 APLN02 101.45 8.98 12.0 BTPN01BCN2 100.75 8.05 10.0 INDF06 100.10 7.22 10.0 BBTN12 116.40 7.61 10.0 BMLK01C 106.10 8.87 8.0 10Y U.S. Treasury Note 10Y Indonesia Soverign US$ Bond Data Source: Bloomberg & CTP Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities: www.bnisecurities.co.id

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec GDP Real (YoY) 6.49 6.32 6.37 6.17 Private Consumption 4.95 4.94 5.24 5.68 Government Consumption 2.78 5.94 7.35-3.22 Investment (GFCF) 11.52 9.97 12.32 10.02 Inflation CPI (YoY) 4.42 4.15 3.79 3.65 3.56 3.97 4.50 4.45 4.53 4.56 4.58 4.31 4.61 4.32 4.30 CPI (MoM) -0.12 0.34 0.57 0.76 0.05 0.07 0.21 0.07 0.62 0.70 0.95 0.01 0.16 0.07 0.54 Consumption Motorcycle Sales (Units) 715,176 642,126 460,535 645,863 666,136 619,678 617,508 611,251 541,918 579,077 429,236 620,499 626,901 621,224 Automobile Sales (Units) 86,345 67,655 80,325 76,427 86,482 87,919 87,145 95,536 101,746 102,512 76,445 102,113 106,744 103,699 Consumer Confidence Index 116.20 114.30 116.60 119.20 111.70 107.30 102.50 109.00 114.40 113.50 115.70 117.70 119.50 120.10 Foreign Trade Current Account (USD mn) 1,424.30 1,841.60 602.10 1,015.50 828.60 925.80-764.70-207.20-1,286.00-263.80 233.10 549.50-1,883.90-478.40 Export (YoY) 17.80 10.20 1.50 6.60 8.90 5.40-2.30-8.00-16.00-7.60-24.70-9.40-9.60-4.60 Import (YoY) 28.16 18.35 25.32 15.89 26.53 12.70 13.77 14.91 10.98 0.91-8.37 1.18 10.78 9.92 Reserves Foreign Reserve (USD bn) 113.96 111.32 110.12 111.99 112.22 110.49 116.41 111.53 106.50 106.56 108.99 110.17 110.30 111.29 112.78 Net Int'l Reserve (IDR tn) 972.24 985.15 965.87 980.78 991.69 981.89 1020.77 1015.99 968.45 977.16 1008.23 1023.02 1025.91 1034.39 1056.08 Moneter (YoY) M1 Money Supply 19.70 16.85 19.42 15.25 16.62 23.02 23.31 22.50 22.51 20.65 16.54 21.25 16.54 20.04 M2 Money Supply 15.98 16.26 16.43 17.17 17.75 18.79 20.24 20.88 20.91 19.12 17.84 18.24 18.07 17.42 17.40 Financial Sector BI rate (% p.a.) 6.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 SUN 10 years (%) 6.34 6.73 6.03 5.34 5.56 5.93 5.96 6.51 6.15 5.71 6.26 5.97 5.71 5.38 5.19 Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD, end of period) 8,870 9,080 9,075 9,005 9,035 9,143 9,192 9,485 9,385 9,445 9,539 9,579 9,605 9,593 9,638 Source: Bloomberg & CEIC Government Bond Ownership as of January 10, 2013 (Rp tn) Holders Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 28-Dec-12 4-Jan-13 9-Jan-13 10-Jan-13 Banks 265.03 293.16 297.98 317.43 311.7 304.02 299.66 301.1 300.88 301.86 Bank Indonesia 7.84 3.12 20.36 4.63 10.62 6.23 3.07 0.88 0.8 0.8 Mutual Fund 47.22 46.95 48.60 47.01 46.49 45.87 43.19 42.94 42.88 42.85 Insurance Companies 93.09 100.63 106.86 109.54 108.02 108.05 83.42 83.48 83.44 83.4 Foreign Investor 222.86 224.72 224.42 240.98 250.33 269.85 270.52 271.56 271.09 270.27 Pension Fund 34.39 33.93 34.56 34.35 35.8 35.29 56.46 56.4 56.38 56.36 Securities Companies 0.14 0.53 0.27 0.51 0.41 0.33 0.3 0.3 0.29 0.29 Others 53.05 57.54 58.14 58.35 70.63 64.92 63.64 63.61 63.5 63.43 Total 723.61 760.58 791.18 812.80 834.00 834.56 820.27 820.27 819.27 819.27 Source: DJPU Kemenkeu NEWS Pertumbuhan Kuartal I 2013 Diprediksi 6,2% Dominasi Penyerapan Belanja Negara Masih di Kuartal III dan IV Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal I 2013 diperkirakan akan mencapai 6%-6,2%. Capaian tersebut terlihat dari baiknya permintaan domestik khususnya kontribusi konsumsi masyarakat dan pemerintah serta investasi yang masih cukup besar. Sepanjang kuartal I 2013 kinerja ekspor diperkirakan akan mengalami perbaikan meskipun pergerakannya masih sangat terbatas sejalan dengan ekspektasi pemulihan perekonomian dunia dan kembali naiknya daya beli masyarakat. Sedangkan investasi diperkirakan masih akan tumbuh moderat. Masih tingginya investasi sejalan dengan kondusifnya iklim usaha dan mulai membaiknya kinerja ekspor meski terbatas dan impor yang berpotensi kembali meningkat. Pertumbuhan ekonomi sepanjang 2013 juga diperkirakan meningkat dibandingkan tahun lalu. Hal tersebut tercermin dari semakin baiknya kondisi ekonomi global khususnya negara-negara mitra dagang Indonesia seperti China dan Jepang. Pemerintah memperkirakan realisasi belanja pemerintah secara cash tahun 2013 masih didominasi pencairan anggaran di akhir kuartal III dan IV. Penyerapan anggaran yang sebagian besar terjadi di kuartal III dan IV (dikenal dengan kurva V) bukan menandakan penyerapan anggaran buruk di akhir tahun. Melainkan adanya kebiasaan dari Kementerian/Lembaga yang menagih anggaran di kuartal III dan IV sambil menunggu selesainya realisasi fisik. Penyerapan akan membaik karena masalah yang terjadi tahun ini diperkirakan akan berkurang dibandingkan tahun lalu, khususnya pada persoalan pengadaan tanah yang diperkirakan lebih baik. Adanya Undang- Undang Pengadaan Tanah dipastikan memuluskan percepatan penyerapan anggaran pemerintah. Secara umum, sangat sulit jika pemerintah tahun ini mengubah sistem penyerapan dengan skema kurva S. Pasalnya, penyerapan yang masih belum optimal setiap tahun disebabkan masalah desentralisasi fiskal yang belum dapat ditembus pemerintah pusat. 2

Government Bond Closing Price as of January 11, 2012 Series Maturity Coupon Price YTM FR0033 15-Mar-13 12.50% 101.57 3.23% FR0019 15-Jun-13 14.25% 104.41 3.62% FR0049 15-Sep-13 9.00% 103.27 4.00% FR0020 15-Dec-13 14.28% 108.93 4.29% FR0051 15-May-14 11.25% 108.95 4.29% FR0026 15-Oct-14 11.00% 111.14 4.33% FR0027 15-Jun-15 9.50% 111.38 4.49% FR0030 15-May-16 10.75% 118.94 4.57% FR0055 15-Sep-16 7.38% 109.21 4.62% FR0060 15-Apr-17 6.25% 106.27 4.61% FR0028 15-Jul-17 10.00% 121.26 4.71% FR0032 15-Jul-18 15.00% 148.74 4.82% FR0038 15-Aug-18 11.60% 132.79 4.83% FR0048 15-Sep-18 9.00% 120.19 4.88% FR0036 15-Sep-19 11.50% 135.76 5.11% FR0031 15-Nov-20 11.00% 137.02 5.19% FR0034 15-Jun-21 12.80% 150.70 5.27% FR0053 15-Jul-21 8.25% 120.13 5.28% FR0061 15-May-22 7.00% 112.73 5.26% FR0035 15-Jun-22 12.90% 154.84 5.40% FR0043 15-Jul-22 10.25% 135.54 5.42% FR0046 15-Jul-23 9.50% 131.86 5.47% FR0039 15-Aug-23 11.75% 149.86 5.48% FR0044 15-Sep-24 10.00% 136.18 5.71% FR0040 15-Sep-25 11.00% 146.21 5.80% FR0037 15-Sep-26 12.00% 155.98 5.96% FR0056 15-Sep-26 8.38% 122.38 5.96% FR0059 15-May-27 7.00% 108.70 6.08% FR0042 15-Jul-27 10.25% 140.20 6.05% FR0047 15-Feb-28 10.00% 137.83 6.12% FR0052 15-Aug-30 10.50% 145.03 6.24% FR0054 15-Jul-31 9.50% 136.47 6.17% FR0058 15-Jun-32 8.25% 119.29 6.49% FR0045 15-May-37 9.75% 140.16 6.45% FR0050 15-Jul-38 10.50% 149.79 6.48% FR0057 15-May-41 9.50% 138.84 6.49% FR0062 15-Apr-42 6.38% 99.83 6.39% Source: Bloomberg 3

MACRO & DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Research Department : +62 21 25543946 Fax No : +62 21 57935831 E-mail : research@bnisecurities.co.id Norico Gaman ext. 3934 norico@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Research Josua Pardede ext. 2030 josua.pardede@bnisecurities.co.id Economist Venia Allani Meissalina ext. 2050 venia@bnisecurities.co.id Research Assistant DEBT MARKET TEAM Debt Capital Market Division : +62 21 25543946 Fax No : +62 21 57936934 E-mail : fi@bnisecurities.co.id Sukartono ext. 3974 karton@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Division Andilla Rusnadi ext. 3911 andilla@bnisecurities.co.id Debt Sales 4

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