CASH FLOW BUDGET WORKSHEET SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN 2005 (ASSUMES 9% CHANGE IN RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS)

CASH FLOW BUDGET WORKSHEET SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN 2005 (ASSUMES 9% CHANGE IN RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS) Pessimistic Expected Optimistic Cash Flow Cash Flow Cash Flow DIRECTIONS: Insert your cash flow information in the middle column entitled "EXPECTED CASH FLOW" Beginning Cash Balance 0 0 0 Cash Inflows (Income): Sales International Market 2,516,213,700 2,765,070,000 3,013,926,300 Sales Domestic Market 567,567,000 623,700,000 679,833,000 Total Cash Inflows 3,083,780,700 3,388,770,000 3,693,759,300 Available Cash Balance 3,083,780,700 3,388,770,000 3,693,759,300 Cash Outflows (Expenses): Pesticide 234,780,768 215,395,200 196,009,632 Fertilizer 234,780,768 215,395,200 196,009,632 Deisel Fuel 234,780,768 215,395,200 196,009,632 Packaging 313,041,024 287,193,600 261,346,176 Wages 143,880,000 132,000,000 120,120,000 Export Cost 43,164,000 39,600,000 36,036,000 Subtotal 1,204,427,328 1,104,979,200 1,005,531,072 Other Cash Out Flows: Salary 115,104,000 105,600,000 96,096,000 Utilities 35,970,000 33,000,000 30,030,000 Maintenance 143,880,000 132,000,000 120,120,000 Transportation 86,328,000 79,200,000 72,072,000 Miscellaneous 35,970,000 33,000,000 30,030,000 Subtotal 417,252,000 382,800,000 348,348,000 Total Cash Outflows 1,621,679,328 1,487,779,200 1,353,879,072 Ending Cash Balance 1,462,101,372 1,900,990,800 2,339,880,228 0.474126248 Kesimpulan : - Dari analisa sensitivitas yang dilakukan dapat dilihat bahwa walaupun tingkat inflasi pada tahun 2005 sangat berfluktuatif, namun PT. BTL diproyeksikan mendapat profit antara 47% sampai 63% dari total penjualan - Asumsi 9 % digunakan berdasarkan perhitungan rata-rata inflasi bulanan selama semester I tahun 2005 - Kenaikan BBM sudah diperhitungkan juga dalam aliran kas, dimana dampaknya akan sangat dirasakan pada pembelian bahan baku, biaya produksi, biaya distribusi dan pemasaran. Hal ini dapat dikompensasi pada peningkatan volume sales ataupun peningkatan harga ju

jual. 0.560967785 0.633468518

Asumsi 1. 2nd year adalah tahun 2004 2. Produksi setiap bulan 500,000 stem, setiap tahunnya naik 50 % 3. Penjualan setiap bulan 450,000 stem, setiap tahunnya naik 50 % 4. 50,000 stem diasumsikan produk cacat (rusak) sehingga tidak bisa di jual di pasar lokal & domestik 5. Total yang diekspor setiap bulannya = 315,000 6. Total yang dijual di pasar lokal setiap bulannya = 135,000 7. Harga jual ekspor USD$ 0.16 per stem, dengan kurs Rp 9,500 = 1,520 8. Harga jual lokal = Rp 800 9. Biaya produksi per batang dibagi total bunga yang siap di pasarkan

LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BTL LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BOTANI TROPICAL LESTARI (DIVISI BUNGA KRISAN) Periode Januari - Desember 2003 Januari Februari Maret April May June July August September October November December Total NET INVESTMENT 7,000,000,000 PENERIMAAN Ekspor 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 5,745,600,000 Lokal 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 1,296,000,000 Sub TOTAL 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 7,041,600,000 PENGELUARAN a. Biaya Produksi Pestisida 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 360,000,000 Pupuk 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 360,000,000 Solar 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 360,000,000 Pengemasan 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 480,000,000 Wages 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 240,000,000 Biaya ekspor 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 72,000,000 Total Biaya Produksi 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 1,872,000,000 Biaya produksi per batang 347 Gross Margin 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 5,169,600,000 b. Biaya Operasional Gaji Pegawai 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 540,000,000 Utilities (Listrik, Telepon, ATK, dll) 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 60,000,000 Pemeliharaan 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 120,000,000 Transportasi 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 60,000,000 Biaya lain-lain 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 120,000,000 Total Biaya Operasional 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 900,000,000 EBITDA 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 4,269,600,000 Depreciation & Amorti 29,000,000 49,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 708,000,000 EBIT 326,800,000 306,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 3,561,600,000 ROI L8

LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BTL PENERIMAAN LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BOTANI TROPICAL LESTARI (DIVISI BUNGA KRISAN) Periode Januari - Desember 2004 Januari Februari Maret April May June July August September October November December Ekspor 718,200,000 718,200,000 718,200,000 1,101,240,000 1,101,240,000 1,101,240,000 1,101,240,000 1,101,240,000.00 1,101,240,000.00 1,101,240,000 1,101,240,000.00 1,101,240,000.00 Lokal 162,000,000 162,000,000 162,000,000 248,400,000 248,400,000 248,400,000 248,400,000 248,400,000.00 248,400,000.00 248,400,000 248,400,000.00 248,400,000.00 Sub TOTAL 880,200,000 880,200,000 880,200,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 PENGELUARAN a. Biaya Produksi Pestisida 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 Pupuk 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 Solar 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 Pengemasan 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 Wages 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 Biaya ekspor 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 Total Biaya Produksi 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 Biaya produksi per batang Gross Margin 599,400,000 599,400,000 599,400,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 b. Biaya Operasional Gaji Pegawai 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 Utilities (Listrik, Telepon, ATK, dll) 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 Pemeliharaan 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 Transportasi 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 Biaya lain-lain 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 Total Biaya Operasional 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 EBITDA 498,900,000 498,900,000 498,900,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 Depreciation & Amorti 29,000,000 49,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 EBIT 469,900,000 449,900,000 435,900,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 ROI Asumsi : 1. Lahan yang ditanam bunga krisan bertambah, dari 1,25 Hektar 2,5 Hektar pada 2004 6. Harga Jual Ekspor US$ 0,16 per batang, dengan kurs Rp 9,500 2. Produksi Ekspor bulan Jan - Mar = Rp 718,200,000 / bulan Produksi awal = 500,000 batang / bulan untuk lahan seluas 1,25 hektar pada tahun 2003 Ekspor bulan Apr - Dec = Rp 1,101,240,000 / bulan Peningkatan Produksi = 250,000 batang / tahun Penambahan Produksi = 400,000 batang / bulan mulai dari bulan April sampai bulan berikutnya karena ada penambahan lahan seluas 1 Hektar (80%) pada tahun 200 7. Harga Jual Pasar Lokal Rp 800 per batang Total Produksi = 1,150,000 batang / bulan mulai bulan april Untuk bulan Jan - Mar = Rp 162,000,000 / bulan 3. Penjualan untuk bulan Apr - Dec = Rp 248,400,000 / bulan Penjualan bulan Jan - Mar = 675,000 batang / bulan dg asumsi 10 % produk cacat yang tidak bisa dijual Penjualan bulan Apr - Dec = 1,035,000 batang / bulan dg asumsi 10 % produk cacat yang tidak bisa dijual 4. Ekspor Ekspor bulan Jan - Mar = 472,500 batang / bulan dg asumsi 70 % dr total penjualan Ekspor bulan Apr - Dec = 724,500 batang / bulan dg asumsi 70 % dr total penjualan 5. Pasar Lokal L8

Untuk bulan Jan - Mar = Untuk bulan Apr - Dec = 202,500 batang / bulan dg asumsi 30 % dr total penjualan 310,500 batang / bulan dg asumsi 30 % dr total penjualan L8

Total 12,065,760,000 2,721,600,000 14,787,360,000 648,000,000 648,000,000 648,000,000 864,000,000 432,000,000 129,600,000 3,369,600,000 624 11,417,760,000 594,000,000 72,000,000 216,000,000 108,000,000 216,000,000 1,206,000,000 10,211,760,000 708,000,000 9,503,760,000 L8

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PROYEKSI LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BTL PROYEKSI LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BOTANI TROPICAL LESTARI (DIVISI BUNGA KRISAN) Periode 2005-2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total NET INVESTMENT PENERIMAAN Ekspor 1,651,860,000 2,477,790,000 3,716,685,000 5,575,027,500 8,362,541,250 21,783,903,750 Lokal 372,600,000 558,900,000 838,350,000 1,257,525,000 1,886,287,500 4,913,662,500 Sub TOTAL 2,024,460,000 3,036,690,000 4,555,035,000 6,832,552,500 10,248,828,750 26,697,566,250 PENGELUARAN a. Biaya Produksi Pestisida 81,000,000 121,500,000 182,250,000 273,375,000 410,062,500 1,068,187,500 Pupuk 81,000,000 121,500,000 182,250,000 273,375,000 410,062,500 1,068,187,500 Solar 81,000,000 121,500,000 182,250,000 273,375,000 410,062,500 1,068,187,500 Pengemasan 108,000,000 162,000,000 243,000,000 364,500,000 546,750,000 1,424,250,000 Wages 54,000,000 81,000,000 121,500,000 182,250,000 273,375,000 712,125,000 Biaya ekspor 16,200,000 24,300,000 36,450,000 54,675,000 82,012,500 213,637,500 Total Biaya Produksi 421,200,000 631,800,000 947,700,000 1,421,550,000 2,132,325,000 5,554,575,000 Biaya produksi per batang 1,029 Gross Margin 1,603,260,000 2,404,890,000 3,607,335,000 5,411,002,500 8,116,503,750 21,142,991,250 b. Biaya Operasional Gaji Pegawai 54,450,000 59,895,000 65,884,500 72,472,950 79,720,245 332,422,695 Utilities (Listrik, Telepon, ATK, dll) 18,000,000 27,000,000 40,500,000 60,750,000 91,125,000 237,375,000 Pemeliharaan 21,600,000 32,400,000 48,600,000 72,900,000 109,350,000 284,850,000 Transportasi 10,800,000 16,200,000 24,300,000 36,450,000 54,675,000 142,425,000 Biaya lain-lain 21,600,000 32,400,000 48,600,000 72,900,000 109,350,000 284,850,000 Total Biaya Operasional 126,450,000 167,895,000 227,884,500 315,472,950 444,220,245 1,281,922,695 EBITDA 1,476,810,000 2,236,995,000 3,379,450,500 5,095,529,550 7,672,283,505 19,861,068,555 Depreciation & Amorti 29,000,000 49,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 267,000,000 EBIT 1,447,810,000 2,187,995,000 3,316,450,500 5,032,529,550 7,609,283,505 19,594,068,555 ROI Asumsi : L8

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