05 Januari, 2015 L A P O R A N H A R I A N Penutupan Prb %Prb %Ytd P/E Americas INDU Index 17,832.99 9.92 0.06 0.06 15.93 SPX Index 2,058.20-0.7-0.03 (0.03) 18.21 CCMP Index 4,726.81-9.242-0.20 (0.20) 41.84 IBOV Index 48,512.22-1495.19-2.99 (2.99) 15.83 EMEA UKX Index 6,547.80-18.29-0.28 (0.28) 18.72 CAC Index 4,252.29-20.46-0.48 (0.48) 25.43 RTSSTD Index 9,298.92-280.34-2.93-3.74 IBEX Index 10,350.80 71.3 0.69 0.69 21.78 FTSEMIB Index 19,130.26 118.3 0.62 0.62 #N/A N/A AEX Index 422.28-2.19-0.52 (0.52) 21.25 SMI Index 8,983.37-51.18-0.57-20.42 Asia / Pacific NKY Index 17,332.91-117.86-0.68 (0.68) 21.25 HSI Index 23,857.82 252.78 1.07 1.07 10.09 SHCOMP Index 3,234.68 68.863 2.18 (0.00) 15.45 TWSE Index 9,307.26 38.83 0.42-15.39 KOSPI Index 1,904.92-21.52-1.12 (0.56) 28.26 JCI Index 5,242.77 15.822 0.30 0.30 21.02 SET Index 1,497.67-0.55-0.04-9.79 PCOMP Index 7,230.57 44.25 0.62-20.83 SENSEX Index 27,887.90 380.36 1.38 1.41 19.54 FSSTI Index 3,370.59 5.44 0.16 0.16 13.67 Deskripsi Terakhir Sebelumnya %Prb Kapitalisasi Pasar (IDR Triliun) 5,241.13 5,228.04 0.25 Volume Transaksi (Juta Saham) 3,839.00 4,720.99-18.68 Nilai Transaksi (IDR Juta) 3,439.00 4,356.74-21.06 Nilai/ saham (IDR) 895.81 922.85-2.93 Net Asing (IDR Juta) (4,175.63) 2,495,203.75-100.17 Komoditas Terakhir Sebelumnya %Prb Nikel/Nickel (US$/Ton) 14,830.00 15,150.00-2.11 Tembaga/Copper (US$/Ton) 6,255.00 6,300.00-0.71 Timah/Tins (US$/Ton) 19,645.00 19,400.00 1.26 Minyak/Oil (US$/BBL) (*) 52.69 53.27-1.09 Gas (US$/MMBTU) 3.73 3.76-0.80 Batu Bara/Coal (US$/Ton) (**) 62.75 61.78 1.54 Emas/Gold (USD/OZ) 1,187.49 1,189.23-0.15 CPO PALMROTT(USD/ton) 735.00 702.50 4.63 CPO MALAYSIA(RM/ton) 2,283.00 2,266.00 0.75 (*) WTI Cushing (**) McCloskey Newscatle ADR Stocks Bloomberg Code Terakhir % Konversi (US$) Prb (Rp) Terakhir (Rp) Saham Kode Last (US$) %Change Conv (Rp) Last (Rp) Telkom TLK US 44.91-0.71 14,042.23 2,860.00 Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities : www.bnisecurities.co.id RISET PERKIRAAN PASAR HARI INI Penguatan IHSG dibayangi aksi profit taking 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 No Stock Top Value (IDR) 1 INDF IJ 408,478,300,000 2 BMRI IJ 228,513,600,000 3 SIAP IJ 137,193,200,000 4 MPPA IJ 127,105,400,000 5 ADHI IJ 119,549,600,000 No Stock Top Volume (Shares) 1 BUMI IJ 548,555,800.00 2 SIAP IJ 298,546,600.00 3 APOL IJ 216,580,300.00 4 CPRO IJ 168,998,200.00 5 BKSL IJ 112,298,100.00 No Top Gainers % change 1 SIMA IJ 32.81 2 HOME IJ 20.42 3 VRNA IJ 20 4 MREI IJ 17.45 5 FORU IJ 17.14 No Top Losers % change 1 SRAJ IJ -24.84 2 INVS IJ -17.16 3 IMJS IJ -17.14 4 BBMD IJ -12.5 5 MFMI IJ -11.24 No Leading Movers % change 1 INDF IJ 10.37 2 BBCA IJ 0.76 3 GGRM IJ 1.81 4 MDIA IJ 14.29 5 UNVR IJ 0.70 No Lagging Movers % change 1 TOWR IJ -3.37 2 ASII IJ -0.34 3 SIAP IJ -8.60 4 KLBF IJ -1.09 5 BBMD IJ -12.50 3,000 1-Jan 11-Mar 20-May 29-Jul Volume (RHS) (Bn Shares) JCI (LHS) 14,990 12,310 9,630 6,950 4,270 1,590
P E R K I R A A N P A S A R H A R I I N I Penguatan IHSG dibayangi aksi profit taking Perdagangan bursa US pekan lalu rata rata flat, Dow +0.06% ke level 17,833 sementara Nasdaq 0.19% ke level 4,727 dan S&P500 0.04% di level 2,058. Pasar merespon indeks manufaktur yang mengalami perlambatan pada akhir tahun 2014 yang menyentuh level 55.5 per Desember 2014, dibanding November 2014 sebesar 58.7, serta estimasi 57.6. Sementara belanja konstruksi turun 0.3% per November 2014, dibawah estimasi +0.3%. Secara keseluruhan kekhawatiran investor masih dalam rentang jangka pendek, dibandingkan proyeksi pertumbuhan yang masih positif pada 2015. Pada kawasan Eropa indeks juga turut melemah, FTSE London 0.28% ke level 6,548 DAX Frankfurt 0.41% ke level 9,765 dan CAC Paris 0.49% ke level 4,252. Bank Sentral Eropa mengindikasikan akan melakukan langkah langkah stimulus lebih luas lagi demi menjaga stabilitas pasar. Hal ini diperkirakan akan mendorong pergerakan pasar. Sementara bursa Asia, Nikkei 0.40% HangSeng +1.07% dan Shanghai Index +2.19%. Untuk IHSG, jum at menguat tipis +0.3% ke level 5,242 dengan net sell asing Rp4 miliar. Penguatan sektor dipimpin properti +1.5% dan konsumsi +1.3%, sementara USD/IDR menyentuh level Rp12,250. IHSG hari ini diperkirakan masih akan melanjutkan penguatannya. Meski demikian, dengan kenaikan hingga +117 poin pada perdagangan lima hari terakhir serta net sell asing, investor antisipasi aksi profit taking yang diperkirakan akan terjadi. Inflasi yang melonjak menjadi 8.36% per Desember 2014 dibanding November 2014 sebesar 6.23% juga dapat menjadi pemberat pergerakan indeks. Indeks hari ini diperkirakan akan bergerak pada rentang 5,150 5,200 dengan potensi penutupan melemah tipis. Saham pilihan BBRI UNTR ADRO LSIP TINS TRAM. Analyst: Dessy Lapagu (dessy@bnisecurities.co.id) 2
R I N G K A S A N B E R I T A PT Trikomsel Oke Tbk (TRIO) dan Selular Group, distributor dan peritel handset, menganggarkan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) sebesar Rp 50 500 miliar pada 2015. Dana tersebut akan digunakan untuk penambahan jumlah otlet, termasuk pengembangan merek handset. Asia Fibers proyeksikan penjualan 2015 stagnan. Harga polister global pada akhir 2014 sebesar US$ 1.150 US$ 1.200 per ton, turun 20% 30% sepanjang tahun tersebut. Waskita Karya bidik kontrak proyek tol Rp 12 triliun. Perseroan terbuka terhadap peluang kerjasama dalam pembangunan proyek tol. PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI), emiten properti, berencana mengalokasikan 50% belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) tahun ini untuk menambah lahan di Pasar Kemis dan Serpong di Tangerang. Sisanya untuk pengembangan proyek. Tahun ini perseroan menyiapkan total belanja modal sekitar Rp 2,2 triliun. Trafik layanan data tiga operator besar, yakni PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel), PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL), dan PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) naik hingga 33% pada tahun baru 2015. Namun, trafik suara (voice) Telkomsel dan XL tercatat turun hingga 4%, sedangkan Indosat naik 9% di periode tersebut. PT Eterindo Wahanatama Tbk (ETWA) memprediksikan penjualan bahan bakar nabati (BBN) jenis biodiesel sepanjang 2014 mencapai 65 ribu metrik ton atau 50% dari target 130 ribu metrik ton. Immanuel Sutarto, Presiden Direktur Eterindo Wahanatama, mengatakan tidak tercapainya target penjualan karena perusahaan menurunkan volume penjualan biodiesel dalam negeri dengan pertimbangan harga. PT Timah Tbk (TINS), emiten pertambangan mineral logam, menargetkan belanja modal (capital expenditure) sebesar Rp 1,1 Triliun tahun ini, lebih rendah dari proyeksi 2014 sebesar Rp 1,4 triliun. Agung Nugroho, Sekretaris Perusahaan Timah, mengatakan alokasi belanja modal perseroan tahun ini akan diorong untuk kegiatan operasional dalam rangka meningkatkan kapasitas produksi. PT Modern International Tbk (MDRN), emiten ritel, melakukan peningkatan penyertaan saham kepada entitas anak yaitu PT Modern Sevel Indonesia sebesar Rp 300 miliar. Direksi perseroan mengatakan peningkatan modal kepada entintas anak pemegang merek 7 Eleven ini dilakukan guna mengembangkan dan mengelola gerai untuk masa 20 tahun penuh dan masa perpanjangan 10 tahun. PT Metrodata Electronics Tbk optimistis porsi bisnis dari proyek pemerintah bisa meningkat menjadi 10% dari total pendapatan tahun ini. Optimisme ini lantaran manajemen perusahaan itu melihat saat ini pemerintah tengah fokus memperbaiki layanan publik secara online dengan program e government dan smart city. Source : Investor Daily, Kontan, Indonesia Finance Today, Inilah, Viva News 3
A N A L Y S T S T A R G E T P R I C E Capitalization 1 Year FY15F FY15F Ratio 1 Year in 2013 Float Shares Banking BBCA IJ Equity 255,795,728,750,000 10.50 15.02 4.20 1.43 0.08 17.00 BUY 14,500 1.11 50.83 BBNI IJ Equity 81,774,358,577,100 18.00 8.10 1.79 0.45 0.10 24.00 BUY 7,800 7.43 39.78 BBRI IJ Equity 215,238,438,450,000 15.20 8.66 2.72 0.57 0.05 35.00 BUY 14,000 10.52 43.25 BMRI IJ Equity 210,583,333,303,250 14.50 9.43 2.41 0.65 0.07 22.20 BUY 13,000 2.16 40.00 Average 14.55 10.30 2.78 0.78 0.08 24.55 5.30 Cement INTP IJ Equity 92,491 11.31 13.96 2.97 1.24 0.01 21.28 BUY 27,500 30.43 35.97 SMGR IJ Equity 97,870 11.22 13.67 3.40 1.22 0.20 24.88 BUY 18,500 24.22 48.99 SMBR IJ Equity 3,974 16.05 8.93 1.35 0.56 0.02 15.07 HOLD 420 7.28 23.76 SMCB IJ Equity 17,471 11.19 15.36 2.06 1.37 0.42 13.39 HOLD 2,350 9.58 19.36 Average 52,952 12.44 12.98 2.44 1.10 0.16 18.65 20.64 Telecommunication EXCL IJ Equity 38,575,897,814,840 15.80 29.39 2.53 1.86 1.08 7.20 BUY 5,400 12.77 33.52 TLKM IJ Equity 227,303,991,882,000 10.50 9.24 3.81 0.88 0.10 16.20 BUY 3,250 22.01 48.81 Average 13.15 19.31 3.17 1.37 0.59 11.70 4.62 Transportation GIAA IJ Equity 10,912,960,072,000 8.50 11.05 0.83 1.30 0.20 8.20 HOLD 500 25.54 27.97 TAXI IJ Equity 3,132,580,000,000 13.22 20.89 3.95 1.58 1.20 18.91 BUY 1,413 106.05 49.00 Average 10.86 15.97 2.39 1.44 0.70 13.56 40.26 Automotive ASII IJ Equity 282,373 9.83 12.79 2.68 1.30 0.77 20.94 HOLD 7,750 15.22 49.91 IMAS IJ Equity 8,946 44.88 29.73 1.46 0.66 2.13 10.58 HOLD 3,500 29.51 10.46 Average 145,659 27.36 21.26 2.07 0.98 1.45 15.76 2.26 Capitalization 1 Year FY15F FY15F Ratio 1 Year in 2013 Float Shares Construction WIKA IJ Equity 17,986 24.75 23.63 4.63 0.95 0.41 19.59 BUY 3,340 75.75 34.73 ADHI IJ Equity 4,629 25.37 13.13 2.68 0.52 0.95 20.39 BUY 3,150 56.13 49.00 PTPP IJ Equity 14,043 34.95 22.12 5.66 0.63 0.77 25.59 BUY 3,450 150.95 43.62 WSKT IJ Equity 9,680 25.66 20.99 3.66 0.82 0.68 17.43 BUY 1,150 109.40 26.55 TOTL IJ Equity 3,325 21.80 19.81 4.43 0.91 0.12 22.34 HOLD 1,000 #N/A N/A 100.00 WTON IJ Equity 10,284 29.62 26.83 5.31 0.91 0.80 19.80 HOLD 1,270 64.87 34.57 Average 9,991 27.03 21.08 4.39 0.79 0.62 20.86 91.42 Infrastructure PGAS IJ Equity 146,055 4.86 13.93 3.73 2.87 0.41 26.74 HOLD 6,325 24.76 43.03 JSMR IJ Equity 44,200 15.60 26.13 4.23 1.67 1.23 16.19 BUY 7,500 23.27 29.99 Average 95,128 10.23 20.03 3.98 2.27 0.82 21.46 24.76 Oil & Gas MEDC IJ Equity 8,281 78.92 30.80 0.71 0.39 1.62 3.69 Not Rated 60.63 49.14 ELSA IJ Equity 2,927 399.80 17.48 1.37 0.04 0.48 8.09 HOLD 538 132.82 34.29 RUIS IJ Equity 168 792.35 5.17 0.66 0.01 2.52 13.50 Not Rated 12.63 39.35 ENRG IJ Equity 3,616 1.49 0.35 1.28 26.21 Not Rated 19.83 93.46 Average 13.74 0.77 371.08 0.11 1.47 12.87 46.56 Property ASRI IJ Equity 11,691 9.21 8.49 1.78 0.92 0.89 20.95 HOLD 485 10.75 48.23 APLN IJ Equity 7,401 20.21 7.57 1.07 0.37 0.95 14.08 HOLD 395 27.14 29.93 BKSL IJ Equity 3,579 66.49 7.94 0.60 0.12 0.35 7.53 Suspend Coverage 51.65 66.55 BSDE IJ Equity 33,620 16.86 13.43 2.45 0.80 0.40 18.24 BUY 2,260 15.06 39.88 CTRA IJ Equity 20,398 21.98 13.70 2.69 0.62 0.43 19.62 HOLD 1,485 43.32 61.27 CTRP IJ Equity 5,258 33.95 10.41 1.44 0.31 0.51 13.87 HOLD 780 20.95 43.75 CTRS IJ Equity 5,818 21.77 9.16 2.09 0.42 0.18 22.79 BUY 2,950 40.80 37.34 BEST IJ Equity 7,089 34.87 12.17 2.18 0.35 0.22 17.90 HOLD 748 30.59 38.64 SSIA IJ Equity 4,893 38.37 9.32 1.75 0.24 0.55 18.73 BUY 1,075 9.25 68.51 MDLN IJ Equity 6,768 12.24 7.64 0.92 0.62 0.74 11.99 HOLD 435 27.57 64.04 PWON IJ Equity 25,525 15.61 13.10 3.96 0.84 0.46 30.22 HOLD 490 80.36 42.38 LPKR IJ Equity 27,116 7.60 16.82 1.95 2.21 0.61 11.57 HOLD 1,225 8.60 82.12 SMRA IJ Equity 22,362 10.90 17.37 3.96 1.59 0.56 22.80 BUY 1,650 41.14 67.69 KIJA IJ Equity 6,273 37.82 8.89 1.02 0.24 0.13 11.50 BUY 418 39.27 80.15 Average 13,414 19.60 11.14 1.99 0.17 0.50 17.27 22.98 4
A N A L Y S T S T A R G E T P R I C E Capitalization 1 Year FY15F FY15F Ratio 1 Year in 2013 Float Shares Agriculture AALI IJ Equity 40,825,264,125,000 11.49 13.82 2.76 1.20 0.20 19.96 BUY 31,250 47.06 20.32 BWPT IJ Equity 6,013,779,803,750 20.18 2.81 0.61 0.14 2.50 21.64 BUY 835 2.84 37.15 LSIP IJ Equity 15,419,672,560,900 13.85 12.40 1.65 0.90 0.15 13.34 BUY 2,330 23.59 40.52 SGRO IJ Equity 4,025,700,000,000 1.09 11.47 1.30 10.52 1.00 11.29 BUY 2,660 0.77 32.95 SIMP IJ Equity 14,630,086,750,000 18.37 12.42 0.67 0.68 0.76 5.36 BUY 980 6.46 21.60 SMAR IJ Equity 19,818,134,225,400 25.53 11.48 3.64 0.45 3.04 31.70 BUY 9,975 19.91 2.80 Average 15.09 10.73 1.77 2.31 1.28 17.22 14.62 Metal ANTM IJ Equity 9,681,536,900,000 n.a 4.98 0.64 n.a 0.54 12.92 HOLD 1,100 16.70 34.99 INCO IJ Equity 25,337,663,736,000 33.49 14.84 1.66 0.44 0.33 11.18 BUY 4,910 3.55 20.49 TINS IJ Equity 6,895,237,400,000 26.39 8.95 1.09 0.34 0.80 12.19 BUY 1,395 3.29 35.00 Average 10.88 28.44 1.26 2.49 0.75 4.91 7.85 Mining ADRO IJ Equity 36,943,786,110,000 12.77 9.72 0.80 0.76 0.64 8.21 BUY 1,315 38.62 40.92 BUMI IJ Equity 45.79 0.81 4.83 0.02 32.57 HRUM IJ Equity 5,704,638,200,000 5.38 28.39 0.98 5.28 0.01 3.45 SELL 1,195 56.30 29.51 ITMG IJ Equity 29,858,268,125,000 2.86 7.44 1.50 2.60 0.39 20.12 HOLD 18,950 28.99 34.99 PTBA IJ Equity 25,633,466,831,250 14.33 17.90 3.50 1.25 0.74 19.45 BUY 16,850 37.08 29.98 Average 4.24 12.85 2.32 0.14 6.87 12.81 40.25 Consumer UNVR IJ Equity 227,180,000,000,000 10.65 35.74 39.20 2.71 0.26 99.40 BUY 34,250 27.83 15.01 INDF IJ Equity 59,932,985,500,000 15.34 19.01 2.74 2.04 0.54 13.63 BUY 7,600 8.79 49.92 ICBP IJ Equity 58,467,398,600,000 15.72 31.60 5.19 2.01 0.10 20.60 HOLD 11,800 37.25 19.47 MYOR IJ Equity 26,206,731,039,500 14.05 23.89 7.18 1.70 1.12 31.00 HOLD 30,314 57.68 66.93 AISA IJ Equity 6,529,800,000,000 10.25 22.00 3.10 1.22 0.89 16.61 BUY 3,150 48.06 53.37 ROTI IJ Equity 7,060,452,000,000 40.06 48.81 7.94 1.22 0.45 21.50 BUY 1,450 4.01 29.25 GGRM IJ Equity 101,976,930,200,000 12.33 21.58 2.98 1.75 0.31 15.80 HOLD 60,000 11.06 23.53 Average 16.91 28.95 9.76 1.81 0.52 31.22 27.81 Capitalization 1 Year FY14F FY14F Ratio 1 Year in 2013 Float Shares Pharmaceutical KLBF IJ Equity 75,700,795,343,450 14.90 32.65 8.65 1.92 0.03 26.30 HOLD 1,885 29.77 43.37 KAEF IJ Equity 5,286,580,000,000 19.40 21.16 2.82 1.09 0.02 12.40 HOLD 1,450 23.30 9.97 Average 17.40 26.90 5.74 1.61 0.02 19.35 3.23 Retail RALS IJ Equity 8,272,480,000,000 9.32 28.32 3.10 3.04 0.00 12.29 HOLD 830 22.72 40.46 MAPI IJ Equity 17,420,000,000,000 20.10 26.60 4.26 5.24 0.91 13.20 HOLD 5,370 3.62 44.00 Average 14.71 66.82 3.68 4.14 0.46 14.85 9.55 Poultry CPIN IJ Equity 62,148,420,000,000 17.55 20.72 6.74 1.18 32.42 19.85 BUY 5,110 3.30 44.47 JPFA IJ Equity 11,460,061,646,000 13.58 14.54 3.19 1.07 59.99 3.19 BUY 1,550 1.32 42.49 MAIN IJ Equity 3,823,785,000,000 16.02 16.28 6.65 1.02 55.23 1.71 BUY 3,000 26.18 44.07 Average 15.72 17.18 5.53 1.09 49.21 8.25 8.06 5
RESEARCH TEAM Research Division : +62 21 25543946 Fax No : +62 21 57935831 E mail : research@bnisecurities.co.id Norico Gaman ext. 3934 norico@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Research Investment Strategy Andri Zakarias ext. 2054 andri.zakarias@bnisecurities.co.id Technical Analyst Market Strategy, Commodities, Heru Irvansyah ext. 2030 heru@bnisecurities.co.id Economist Currency, Bond & Stocks I Made Adi Saputra ext. 3968 made.saputra@bnisecurities.co.id Fixed Income Analyst Thendra Crisnanda ext. 2098 thendra@bnisecurities.co.id Analyst Automotive, Cement, Construction, Property Infrastructure, Yasmin Soulisa ext. 3987 yasmin@bnisecurities.co.id Analyst Coal Mining, Metal Mining, Plantation, Oil & Gas Ankga Adiwirasta ext. 3986 ankga.adiwirasta@bnisecurities.co.id Analyst Consumer Goods, Pharmaceutical, Retail Richard Jerry ext. 2032 richard@bnisecurities.co.id Analyst Banking, Telecommunication Dessy Lapagu ext. 2051 dessy@bnisecurities.co.id Research Assistant Poultry Venia Allani Meissalina ext. 2050 venia@bnisecurities.co.id Research Assistant Thennesia Debora ext. 2123 thennesia@bnisecurities.co.id Research Assistant Transportation Indah Lestari ext. 2073 indah.lestari@bnisecurities.co.id Research Assistant EQUITY TEAM CM : +62 21 25543946 Fax No : +62 21 57935831 Norico Gaman ext. 3934 Jufrani Amsal ext. 3957 norico@bnisecurities.co.id Equity Division Head (PJS) amsal@bnisecurities.co.id Channel Distribution Division Head Entis Sutisman ext. 3945 entis@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Local Institution Chandrawati ext. 3941 chandrawati@bnisecurities.co.id Head of HO Retail Yulinda ext. 3950 yulinda@bnisecurities.co.id Institutional Sales 6
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