LAMPIRAN Lampiran 1 Perkembangan Produktivitas Pertanian dan Impor Beras di Indonesia Tahun 1986-2012 No Tahun Produktivitas Pertanian (ton/ha) Impor Beras (ton) 1 1986 3.97 27765 2 1987 4.03 54982 3 1988 4.11 32730 4 1989 4.24 268321 5 1990 4.3 49577 6 1991 4.34 170994 7 1992 4.34 611697 8 1993 4.37 24580 9 1994 4.34 633048 10 1995 4.34 1807875 11 1996 4.41 2149758 12 1997 4.43 349681 13 1998 4.19 2895118 14 1999 4.25 4751398 15 2000 4.4 1355666 16 2001 4.38 644733 17 2002 4.46 1805380 18 2003 4.53 1428506 19 2004 4.53 236867 20 2005 4.57 189617 21 2006 4.62 438108 22 2007 4.7 1406847.6 23 2008 4.89 289689.4 24 2009 4.99 250473.1 25 2010 5.01 687581.5 26 2011 4.98 2750476.2 27 2012 5.13 1810372.3 Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik
Lampiran 2 Transformasi First Difference Variabel Produktivitas Pertanian dan Impor Beras di Indonesia Tahun 1986-2012 No Tahun Produktivitas Pertanian Impor Beras 1 1986 0 0 2 1987 0.06 27217 3 1988 0.08-22252 4 1989 0.13 235591 5 1990 0.06-218744 6 1991 0.04 121417 7 1992 0 440703 8 1993 0.03-587117 9 1994-0.03 608468 10 1995 0 1174827 11 1996 0.07 341883 12 1997 0.02-1800077 13 1998-0.24 2545437 14 1999 0.06 1856280 15 2000 0.15-3395732 16 2001-0.02-710933 17 2002 0.08 1160647 18 2003 0.07-376874 19 2004 0-1191639 20 2005 0.04-47250 21 2006 0.05 248491 22 2007 0.08 968739.6 23 2008 0.19-1117158.2 24 2009 0.1-39216.3 25 2010 0.02 437108.4 26 2011-0.03 2062894.7 27 2012 0.15-940103.9
Lampiran 3 Hasil Uji Akar Unit Produktivitas Pertanian dengan First Difference- Intercept Null Hypothesis: D(PRODUKTIVITAS) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=2) t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.348791 0.0023 Test critical values: 1% level -3.724070 5% level -2.986225 10% level -2.632604 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(PRODUKTIVITAS,2) Date: 01/05/14 Time: 20:49 Sample (adjusted): 1988 2012 Included observations: 25 after adjustments D(PRODUKTIVITAS(-1)) -0.938298 0.215761-4.348791 0.0002 C 0.041507 0.018933 2.192332 0.0387 R-squared 0.451231 Mean dependent var 0.003600 Adjusted R-squared 0.427371 S.D. dependent var 0.111051 S.E. of regression 0.084035 Akaike info criterion -2.038553 Sum squared resid 0.162422 Schwarz criterion -1.941043 Log likelihood 27.48192 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.011508 F-statistic 18.91199 Durbin-Watson stat 1.891495 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000236
Lampiran 4 Hasil Uji Akar Unit Impor Beras dengan First Difference-Intercept Null Hypothesis: D(IMPOR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=2) t-statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.566004 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.737853 5% level -2.991878 10% level -2.635542 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(IMPOR,2) Date: 01/05/14 Time: 20:43 Sample (adjusted): 1989 2012 Included observations: 24 after adjustments D(IMPOR(-1)) -1.959523 0.258990-7.566004 0.0000 D(IMPOR(-1),2) 0.691487 0.176885 3.909240 0.0008 C 123182.8 206739.8 0.595835 0.5577 R-squared 0.758984 Mean dependent var -38243.83 Adjusted R-squared 0.736030 S.D. dependent var 1962048. S.E. of regression 1008060. Akaike info criterion 30.60142 Sum squared resid 2.13E+13 Schwarz criterion 30.74868 Log likelihood -364.2171 Hannan-Quinn criter. 30.64049 F-statistic 33.06561 Durbin-Watson stat 2.051318 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Lampiran 5 Hasil Uji Granger Causality Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 06/16/14 Time: 10:39 Sample: 1986 2012 Lags: 1 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob. DPRODUKTIVITAS does not Granger Cause DIMPOR 25 11.8967 0.0023 DIMPOR does not Granger Cause DPRODUKTIVITAS 16.8654 0.0005 Lampiran 6 Hasil Regresi Produktivitas Pertanian dan Impor Beras dengan First Difference Dependent Variable: DIMPOR Date: 06/16/14 Time: 11:00 Sample (adjusted): 1987 2012 Included observations: 26 after adjustments C 439093.9 237997.5 1.844952 0.0774 DPRODUKTIVITAS -8305030. 2617217. -3.173229 0.0041 R-squared 0.295555 Mean dependent var 68561.82 Adjusted R-squared 0.266203 S.D. dependent var 1234450. S.E. of regression 1057453. Akaike info criterion 30.65443 Sum squared resid 2.68E+13 Schwarz criterion 30.75121 Log likelihood -396.5076 Hannan-Quinn criter. 30.68230 F-statistic 10.06938 Durbin-Watson stat 2.245718 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004098
Lampiran 7 Hasil Regresi Impor Beras dan Produktivitas Pertanian dengan First Difference Dependent Variable: DPRODUKTIVITAS Date: 06/16/14 Time: 11:01 Sample (adjusted): 1987 2012 Included observations: 26 after adjustments C 0.047055 0.013597 3.460673 0.0020 DIMPOR -3.56E-08 1.12E-08-3.173229 0.0041 R-squared 0.295555 Mean dependent var 0.044615 Adjusted R-squared 0.266203 S.D. dependent var 0.080807 S.E. of regression 0.069221 Akaike info criterion -2.429215 Sum squared resid 0.114998 Schwarz criterion -2.332438 Log likelihood 33.57979 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.401346 F-statistic 10.06938 Durbin-Watson stat 1.735654 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004098