Potential for renewable energy development in Indonesia

Transkripsi

1 Masyarakat Energi Terbarukan Indonesia (The Indonesian Renewable Energy Society) Gedung BPSDM Lantai 5 Jl. Gatot Subroto Kav.49, Jakarta Ph: , ; Fax : meti.ires@gmail.com ; http: // Potential for renewable energy development in Indonesia Dr. Surya Darma Chairman of METI Yayasan Mitra Hijau dan Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Workshop on the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) in Indonesia Hotel Aryaduta, Jakarta 14 Februari 2018

2 Outline Indonesia RE Potential Indonesia Energy Problems Target of Emission Reduction Lessons Learnt From National Energy Policy Why RE?

3 Indonesia RE Potential

4 PLTA, PLTM/H 75 GW PLTA 5,124 GW PLTMH 0,162 GW (7,07%) Angin 60,6 GW Energi Fosil Cadangan terbukti: Minyak Bumi : 3,6 miliar barel Gas Bumi : 100,3 TSCF Batubara : 7,2 miliar ton Produksi: Minyak Bumi : 288 Juta barel Gas Bumi : 2,97 TSCF Batubara : 434 juta ton Diperkirakan akan habis: Minyak Bumi : 13 tahun Gas Bumi : 34 tahun Batubara : 16 tahun RE Potential 1,1 MW (0,002%) 1,78 GW (5,5%) Kapasitas terpasang Pembangkit saat ini Rencana Pembangunan Pembangkit Surya 207,8 GWp MW MW MW Panas Bumi Sumber Daya : 12,3 GW Reserve : 17,2 GW 0,085 GWp (0,04%) 1,64 GW (5,6%) 443,2 GW Bioenergi 32,6 GW BBN 200 Ribu Bph 8,80 GW (2% terhadap potensi) Energi Laut 17,9 GW 0,0 MW (0,000%) New project

5 Indonesia s Energy Problems Energy Resources Conflicts for domestic or export? Declining oil & gas production Limited energy access and infrastructures Imported fuel and LPG Dependences Uncompetitive NRE prices Low RE utilisation Inefficient energy utilisation Low NRE technology mastery Geopolitical condition and environmental issues National energy reserves

6 Komitmen Pemerintah untuk mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca pada tahun 2020 Upaya sendiri 26% (767 juta Ton) 41% Upaya sendiri dan dukungan internasional Perpres No. 61/2011 RAN-GRK Perpres No. 71/2011 GHG Inventory dan MRV Kehutanan, Gambut, Pertanian Sektor Energi Limbah Industri dan Transportasi 680 Juta Ton 30 Juta Ton 48 Juta Ton 9 Juta Ton Melalui pengembangan energi baru terbarukan dan pelaksanaan konservasi energi dari seluruh sektor

7 KOMITMEN PENURUNAN EMISI GRK NASIONAL (UU 16 Tahun 2016 Paris Agreement) Komitmen Pemerintah untuk mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca pada tahun 2030 Upaya sendiri 29% (856 juta Ton) 41% Upaya sendiri dan dukungan internasional Perpres No. 61/2011 RAN-GRK & UU No.16/2016 Perpres No. 71/2011 GHG Inventory dan MRV Kehutanan, Gambut, Pertanian Sektor Energi Limbah Industri dan Transportasi 680 Juta Ton 30 Juta Ton 48 Juta Ton 9 Juta Ton Melalui pengembangan energi baru terbarukan dan pelaksanaan konservasi energi dari seluruh sektor

8 Lessons Learnt From National Energy Policy

9 Energy Policy (KUBE) Intensification - Energy Diersification - Energy Conservation - Pricing Policy - Environment - Mostly using Petrol (77%)

10 Indonesian Government Aims (2006) 1. To guarantee the energy availability through for domestic need for domestic need 2. To improve quality services 3. To guarantee long term sustainability of energy supply energy supply 4. To guarantee energy for export purposes 5. To conserve and preserve the environment.

11 LONG TERM PLANNING OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT New and Renewable Energy Oil Natural Gas Coal 24% 31% Total 1000 MTOE 22% 23% 25% 20% 31% 18% 5% Total 194 MTOE Data Source: National Energy Council, % 30% Total 400 MTOE % 2025 Power Plant: 51 GW Energy Consumption: 0.8 TOE/kap Electricity Consumption: 776 KWh/kap Electrification Ratio (2014): 84.33% 2050 Power Plant:115 GW Energy Consumption: 1.4 TOE/kap Electricity Consumption: 2,500 KWh/kap Electrification Ratio (2020): closely to 100% Power Plant:430 GW Energy Consumption: 3.2 TOE/kap Electricity Consumption: 7,000 KWh/kap 11

12 Potential of RE Development

13 RE Target by /2017) - KEN (PP 79/2014) dan RUEN (Perpres Kapasitas Pembangkit Listrik Nasional Kapasitas Pembangkit Listrik EBT Gas Batubara 22% 30% 23% Bauran EBT ~ 400 MTOE 23% 25% EBT 135 GW Minyak 45 GW 92,2 MTOE 69,2 MTOE 23,0 MTOE Listrik EBT 45 GW Biofuel Biomassa Biogas CBM 1. PLT Panas Bumi, 7,2 GW 2. PLT Hidro, 17,9 GW 3. PLT Mikrohidro, 3 GW 4. PLT Bioenergi, 5,5 GW 5. PLT Surya, 6,5 GW 6. PLT Angin, 1,8 GW 7. PLT EBT lainnya, 3 GW *) tidak termasuk biofuel untuk pembangkit listrik sebesar 0,7 juta kl tahun ,69*) juta kilo liter 8,4 juta ton 489,8 juta m3 46,0 mmscfd 1 3

14 Why RE? Mandate of Energy Law 30/2007: GR No. 79/2014 Bauran Energi Primer (PP 79/2014) Minyak 25% ~ 96 MTOE Gas 22% ~ 76,75 MTOE Batubara 22% ~ 113,45 MTOE EBT 23% ~ 84,15 MTOE 2025: 115 GW Komposisi Pembangkitan 60% Fosil 40% EBT 68,2 GW 46,8 GW

15 Why RE? INFORMATION TO FACILITATE CLARITY, TRANSPARENCY AND UNDERSTAND! Reductio Leve #U co ditio a Reductio, co ditio a Reductio, type, Coverage, Scope, Base i e, Fair a d Ambitiou! Key Assumptio i Mitigatio #Metric App ied, Methodo ogy for estimati g emissio, Base i e, Assumptio Used Projectio a d Po icy Sce ario , Coverage of Emissio Reductio, Projected BAUa d emissio reductio f each sector category Government Commitment to reduce CO2 Emision - GHG Projected BAU and emission reduction from each sector category RE is one of the main target in CO2 emision reduction

16 Challenges of RE Competitiveness of RE Energy Price; Political Will to Intensify Renewable Energy Utilization; Shortage of Competence Human Resources; Absence of Technology and Research & Development Supports; Commitment of renewable incentives; Integrated Energy Planning; Regulation and permits. Environment and social issues. Needs of huge funding and encourage domestic Banks participation. 16

17 Recommendation 1. Regulation and Policy 1. Pricing 2. Fiscal incentive 3. Energy use dis-incentive 4. BOOT scheme? 5. Bidding scheme 6. No RPS 7. RE Development Fund 2. Coordination interdepartmental

18 So, don t Lets Indonesia suffer for energy. Please use RE for the better Indonesia Thank you Dr. Surya Darma Suryadarma.za@gmail.com METI.IRES@gmail.com