Target IHSG 5,406 5,443.73

Senin, 06 Februari 2017 Target IHSG 5,406 5,443.73 Beberapa berita ekonomi di pekan kemarin diantaranya: 1) Federal Reverse mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya di level 0.50% hingga 0.75% akibat ketidakpastian atas kebijakan fiskal dan ekonomi dari pemerintahan Trump. Fed juga tidak memberikan sinyal kapan akan menaikkan suku bunganya namun mengisyaratkan dapat mempercepat kenaikan suku bunga bila kebijakan fiskal dari pemerintahan baru dapat meningkatkan inflasi. 2) Ruang Bank Indonesia untuk menurunkan suku bunga acuan akan sangat terbatas karena meningkatnya tekanan inflasi. Bank Indonesia akan tetap mendorong kebijakan moneter di tahun lalu dengan memastikan Bank memiliki likuiditas yang cukup untuk mencegah agar perbankan tidak perlu terburu buru menaikkan suku bunga pinjaman. Mulai bulan Februari 2017, Bank Indonesia mengubah skema Operasi Pasar Terbuka (OPT) dari metode lelang harga tetap (fixed-rate tender: tingkat diskonto OPT yang digelar BI ditentukan oleh BI) menjadi lelang dengan harga beragam (variable-rate tender: tingkat diskonto OPT yang digelar BI ditentukan oleh peserta lelang) agar lebih cepat menangkap kondisi pasar sehingga lebih sigap menjaga inflasi. Pemerintah juga akan menghitung kembali waktu yang tepat untuk menaikkan sejumlah administered prices dimana di Bulan Januari telah berada di angka 0.97% dari kenaikan tarif dasar listrik berdaya 900 VA, sehingga kemungkinan akan menunda kenaikan tarif listrik kedua dan gas elpiji. 3) Pemerintah telah mempersiapkan program yang akan dilaksanakan pada 2018, diantaranya menggenjot investasi agar ekonomi dapat bertumbuh ke kisaran 8% (saat ini sekitar 5% - 6%) dan program pengentasan kemiskinan mengarah kepada 40% penduduk berpendapatan terendah dengan melaksanakan 10 program prioritas yang dituangkan dalam Rencana Strategis Kebijakan Ekonomi Berkeadilan. Dan secara keseluruhan pergerakan IHSG dalam sepekan terakhir berhasil menguat sebesar 0.90% atau 47.93 poin dan ditutup di level 5,360.77. Akumulasi minat beli asing juga masih tercatatkan mendukung penguatan IHSG dalam dua pekan dan tiga pekan terakhir masing masing sebesar Rp.718.56 miliar dan Rp.280.52 miliar. Sedangkan dalam sepekan terakhir dan empat pekan terakhir masih tercatatkan akumulasi minat jual asing masing masing sebesar Rp.13.32 miliar dan Rp.514.27 miliar. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS tercatatkan flat dalam sepekan terakhir dari Rp.13.359 menjadi Rp.13.362. Menguatnya IHSG dalam sepekan terakhir membuat kondisi indeks saat ini berada dalam area jenuh beli (overbought) namun masih berpeluang untuk menguji level 5,406 5,443.73 sebagai target sementara selama harga masih bertahan di atas level 5,347.02. Dan pergerakan indeks dalam sepekan kedepan diperkirakan masih akan berfluktuatif dikisaran 5,280.64 5,469.31 sebagai support dan resistance. Beberapa saham yang saat ini underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah diantaranya APLN, ASRI, CPIN, DILD, JSMR, KIJA, dan MNCN. Berita ekonomi domestik di pekan ini diantaranya Indeks kepercayaan bisnis Q4 2016, pertumbuhan ekonomi 2016, indeks kepercayaan konsumen Januari 2017, cadangan devisa Januari 2017, transaksi berjalan Q4 2016, indeks properti Q4 2016, dan penjualan mobil dan motor Januari 2017. Sedangkan berita ekonomi global di pekan ini diantaranya International Trade, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, EIA Petroleum Status Report, Jobless Claims, Import and Export Prices, Consumer Sentiment, dan Treasury Budget. Close Weekly Return Yield to Date PE (X) Volume (miliar) Value (Rp. triliun) BI 7-Day RR IDR/USD 5,850 5,600 5,350 5,100 4,850 Widhi Indratmo Nugroho Analyst widhi@lautandhana.com +62 21 5785 1818 (Ext.2051) COMPOSITE LAST TOTAL TRANSACTION ECONOMIC INDICATORS Rp. 5,360.77 0.90% 1.21% 22.18 87.19 28.24 4.75% 13,362 JCI vs Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD 3-Jan-17 12-Jan-17 23-Jan-17 1-Feb-17 Composite (LHS) SECTOR 28,000 16,000 (8,000) (20,000) Net Buy YTD in Rp.bn (RHS) Agriculture 0.73% 0.21% Basic Industry 0.15% 3.98% Consumer Goods -0.11% 1.16% Finance 1.28% 0.64% Infrastructure 1.40% 1.68% Manufacture 0.00% 1.66% Mining 3.06% 0.98% Misc. Industry 0.23% 0.95% Property 1.25% -0.65% Trade & Service 1.28% 1.23% SECTOR WEEKLY RETURN 3-Feb-16 27-Jan-16 Agriculture -0.93% 4.98% Basic Industry -0.57% 3.86% Consumer Goods -0.09% 0.71% Finance -10.44% -5.30% Infrastructure 5.52% 1.68% Manufacture 0.86% 6.91% Mining 76.13% 4.35% Misc. Industry -0.83% 0.17% Property 3.45% -61.68% Trade & Service -1.20% 10.35% WEEKLY CAPITAL FLOW 3-Feb-16 27-Jan-16 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

PE Band IHSG Saat ini IHSG berada pada PE ratio 22.18x. 8,000 7,000 6,000 2 5.8 x 2 2. 0 3 x 18. 2 5 x Closing 5,000 14. 4 8 x 3,000 10.7 x 2,000 - Dec-03 Jul-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Mar-10 Oct -11 Apr-13 Nov-14 May-16 Dec-17 Sector Performance 2016 Selama bulan January 2017, secara garis besar beberapa sector yang menjadi driver 5,600 Basic Ind Closing diantaranya basic industry, agriculture, consumer, manufacture, trade & 5,400 Agriculture Consumer M anufac Trade M ining service, dan mining. 5,200 5,000 J CI 3-Jan-17 9-Jan-17 13-Jan-17 19-Jan-17 25-Jan-17 31-Jan-17 6-Feb-17 10-Feb-17 Note: All Sectors Rebase to JCI Siklus Pergerakan Harian IHSG 6,000 1.73 Sell on Strength 5,000 Cy c l e J CI 1.60 1.47 Closing Saat ini siklus IHSG berada 1.34 diantara -1STDEV dan 1.21 +1 STDEV average. Trading Area 3,000 1.08 Average 0.95-1 STDEV Buy on Weakness 2,000 Krisis Global 2008 Bottom Fishing 0.82 0.69 0.56 - Jan-03 Sep-04 May-06 Jan-08 Sep-09 May-11 Dec-12 Sep-14 Apr-16 Dec-17 0.43 2

Siklus Pergerakan Harian Beberapa Saham LQ45 & Lainnya Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside AALI 1.02 0.87 1.04 1.22 Trading 18,781 17.4% LSIP 1.01 0.82 1.07 1.32 Trading 1,899 20.6% ADHI 0.86 0.83 1.18 1.52 Trading 2,505 19.3% MNCN 0.85 0.86 1.18 1.50 BoW 2,194 29.1% ADRO 1.39 0.83 1.04 1.25 SoS 1,860 8.2% MYRX 1.08 0.92 1.08 1.24 Trading 200 - AKRA 1.07 0.92 1.13 1.34 Trading 7,592 9.6% PGAS 1.07 0.92 1.08 1.23 Trading 3,137 9.3% ANTM 1.05 0.77 0.98 1.19 Trading 951 14.5% PPRO 1.39-8.32 3.93 16.18 Trading 600-52.4% ASII 1.06 0.90 1.12 1.34 Trading 8,773 8.3% PTBA 1.17 0.83 1.03 1.23 Trading 14,355 22.2% ASRI 0.92 0.85 1.15 1.44 Trading 426 7.1% PTPP 0.94 0.85 1.13 1.41 Trading 4,949 33.4% BBCA 1.07 1.00 1.10 1.21 Trading 16,349 5.7% PWON 0.93 0.87 1.12 1.37 Trading 718 24.8% BBNI 1.13 0.90 1.14 1.38 Trading 6,512 9.0% SCMA 1.01 0.91 1.25 1.60 Trading 3,291 11.6% BBRI 1.06 0.98 1.11 1.24 Trading 12,993 8.3% SMGR 0.96 0.96 1.11 1.26 Trading 10,129 10.1% BBTN 1.04 0.82 0.97 1.13 Trading 2,097 10.9% SMRA 0.83 0.91 1.18 1.45 BoW 1,575 19.3% BMRI 1.05 0.93 1.11 1.30 Trading 11,428 3.2% SRIL 0.93-9.21 3.52 16.24 Trading 300 27.1% BSDE 0.96 0.73 1.18 1.64 Trading 2,293 21.0% SSMS 1.01 1.00 1.12 1.24 Trading 2,000 21.2% BUMI 3.06 0.47 0.85 1.22 SoS TLKM 0.99 0.95 1.05 1.15 Trading 4,641 17.5% CPIN 0.92 0.82 1.28 1.73 Trading 3,610 11.8% UNTR 1.26 0.84 1.08 1.33 Trading 24,419 6.2% ELSA 0.90 1.09 1.39 0.79 BoW 420-2.8% UNVR 0.97 0.98 1.10 1.23 BoW 45,151 7.5% EXCL 0.97 0.83 1.10 1.37 Trading 3,124 7.7% WIKA 0.92 0.95 1.18 1.41 BoW 3,089 24.1% GGRM 0.93 0.89 1.18 1.48 Trading 78,449 26.9% WSKT 1.01 0.87 1.12 1.37 Trading 3,256 26.2% HMSP 0.17 0.97 1.15 1.32 BoW 4,120 5.4% ICBP 0.74 0.96 1.10 1.23 BoW 10,088 19.4% OTHERS INCO 1.11 0.80 1.02 1.24 Trading 2,846 2.7% CTRA 0.96 0.89 1.15 1.40 Trading 1,703 23.4% INDF 1.01 0.86 1.11 1.37 Trading 9,884 25.5% KIJA 1.01 0.84 1.10 1.35 Trading 442 52.3% INTP 0.92 0.91 1.12 1.32 Trading 16,067 4.5% SMCB 0.88 0.85 1.10 1.35 Trading 856-5.4% JSMR 0.88 0.96 1.14 1.31 BoW 5,680 33.3% GIAA 0.81 0.85 1.01 1.16 BoW 366 7.5% KLBF 0.94 1.00 1.20 1.39 BoW 1,753 19.2% KAEF 1.11 0.90 1.18 1.47 Trading 2,543 16.7% LPKR 0.77 0.87 1.04 1.20 BoW 1,002 37.2% SMBR 1.48 0.94 1.01 1.08 SoS 859-60.4% LPPF 0.85 0.02 1.54 3.07 Trading 19,227 27.1% TINS 1.23 0.79 1.01 1.23 Trading 1,186 7.8% Note: 1. TP (Target Price) Konsensus Bloomberg 2. Cycle: Posisi harga close saham di minggu terakhir 3. Posisi Cycle yang berada dibawah (-1) standard deviation, diperkirakan mempunyai ruang koreksi yang mulai terbatas Pemilihan Saham Beberapa saham yang berada di atas fairly price line (security market line) mencerminkan kondisi under price. Investor dapat melakukan posisi beli maupun menambah proporsi (overweight) pada saham ini. Sedangkan beberapa saham yang berada di bawah fairly price line mencerminkan kondisi over price. Investor dapat melakukan posisi jual atau mengurangi proporsi (underweight) pada saham ini. Berhasilnya program tax amnesty dan dominasi sektor konsumsi masyarakat, diharapkan mampu untuk menjaga kestabilan nilai tukar rupiah dan mampu memberi pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik di 2017 sebesar 5.1% - 5.3%, di saat potensi penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi global. Sehingga kami perkirakan IHSG masih dapat bertumbuh dengan target dikisaran 5,604.97 serta BI 7 day reverse repo rate tetap di 4.75%. Passive Strategy Expected Return 85% 55% 25% -5% -35% AKRA SSMS APLN DILD KIJA LPKR JSMR PTPP SRIL MNCN LPPF WSKT GGRM INDF PTBA WIKA CTRA ICBPBSDE PWON LSIP ADHI SMRA TLKM KLBF AALI SMGRSCMA ASII BBTN KAEF PGAS TINS BBRI BBCA ADROBBNI ASRI UNVR EXCL UNTR INCO INTP BMRI ELSA SMCB BJTM BJBR 0.4 1.2 2.0 Sensitivity to Market Under Price Area (Positive Alpha) CPIN Over Price Area (Negative Alpha) Update Fairly Price Line 3

Saham Underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah APLN PE Band ASRI PE Band 700 13x 10.65x 8.3x 1,250 20.4x 5.95x 550 17.25x 400 3.6x 750 14.1x 10.95x 250 500 7.8x 100 250 CPIN PE Band DILD PE Band 6,000 38.1x 31.7x 25.3x 900 29.8x 24.73x 19.65x 14.58x 4,750 18.9x 700 9.5x 3,500 500 12.5x 2,250 300 100 JSMR PE Band KIJA PE Band 8,200 37.5x 31.93x 26.35x 450 38.64x 31.16x 23.67x 16.19x 7,000 20.78x 350 8.7x 5,800 250 15.2x 4,600 150 3,400 50 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 MNCN PE Band 30.1x 25.85x 21.6x 3,250 17.35x 2,500 13.1x 1,750 4

AGRICULTURE Plantation & Others Emiten Ticker Close Weekly Indicator Weekly Forecast YTD Performance Support Resistance Beta Volatility Bearish Bullish Astra Ago Lestari Tbk AALI 15,800 15,725 16,500 0.87 5.63% -5.81% Overweight 15,375 16,200 PP London Sumatra Tbk LSIP 1,600 1,590 1,695 0.69 5.21% -8.05% Overweight 1,565 1,630 Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk SSMS 1,630 1,555 1,630 0.85 5.40% 16.43% Overweight 1,585 1,670 Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN 3,160 3,100 3,210 1.41 5.75% 2.27% Overweight 3,020 3,290 MINING Coal, Oil & Gas, Metal & Other Resources Adaro Energy Tbk ADRO 1,725 1,700 1,750 1.58 7.08% 1.77% Overweight 1,640 1,805 Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk PTBA 10,825 10,675 11,850 1.31 6.26% -13.40% Overweight 10,375 11,250 Elnusa Tbk ELSA 442 428 472 1.20 7.62% 5.24% Underweight 426 458 Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk ANTM 805 795 890 0.81 6.72% -10.06% Overweight 785 825 Vale Indonesia Tbk INCO 2,340 2,230 2,430 1.05 7.82% -17.02% Overweight 2,260 2,410 BASIC INDUSTRY Cement & Others Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk. INTP 15,900 14,600 15,900 1.54 4.82% 3.25% Underweight 15,125 16,625 Semen Gresik Tbk SMGR 9,225 8,600 9,275 1.36 4.77% 0.54% Overweight 8,825 9,600 MISC.INDUSTRY Otomotif Astra International Tbk ASII 8,100 7,950 8,150 1.42 4.76% -2.11% Overweight 7,725 8,425 Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk SRIL 238 234 254 0.82 7.30% 3.48% Overweight 232 244 CONSUMER GOODS Foods, Cigarette, Pharmacy & Others Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 8,550 8,350 8,700 1.10 5.85% -0.29% Overweight 8,250 8,825 Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF 8,000 7,925 8,150 1.10 4.05% 0.95% Overweight 7,725 8,250 Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 41,700 39,575 42,000 0.98 3.34% 7.47% Neutral 40,450 42,925 Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM 62,800 62,700 63,900 0.85 4.09% -1.72% Overweight 61,175 64,425 Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk HMSP 3,920 3,820 0.73 8.89% 2.35% Neutral 3,830 Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF 1,480 1,450 1,515 1.14 3.81% -2.31% Overweight 1,425 1,530 PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION Alam Sutera Realty Tbk ASRI 388 380 406 1.51 5.79% 10.23% Overweight 370 406 Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk BSDE 1,860 1,775 1,900 1.49 4.84% 5.98% Overweight 1,770 1,940 Lippo Karawaci Tbk LPKR 720 715 735 1.23 5.33% 0.00% Overweight 690 745 Pakuwon Jati Tbk PWON 570 570 590 1.51 5.37% 0.88% Overweight 540 595 Summarecon Agung Tbk SMRA 1,365 1,315 1,410 1.55 6.03% 3.02% Overweight 1,300 1,425 Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk ADHI 2,100 2,100 2,190 1.20 5.35% 0.96% Overweight 2,020 2,170 PP (Persero) Tbk PTPP 3,450 3,440 3,590 0.91 4.12% -9.45% Overweight 3,350 3,540 Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA 2,460 2,450 2,560 1.19 4.86% 4.24% Overweight 2,370 2,540 Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT 2,570 2,520 2,620 0.95 4.13% 0.78% Overweight 2,490 2,640 INFRASTRUCTURE Energy, Transportation & Highway, Telecommunication, Non Building Construction Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PGAS 2,800 2,580 2,800 1.18 5.15% 3.70% Overweight 2,690 2,900 Jasa Marga Tbk JSMR 4,220 4,150 4,280 1.04 3.75% -2.31% Overweight 4,080 4,350 Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk TLKM 3,890 3,780 3,960 0.97 2.95% -2.26% Overweight 3,770 FINANCE Bank Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 15,400 14,950 15,550 1.13 3.02% -0.65% Overweight 14,850 15,925 Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,750 5,450 5,800 1.41 4.37% 4.07% Overweight 5,500 5,975 Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 11,725 11,675 11,900 1.47 4.27% 0.43% Overweight 11,175 12,225 Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk BBTN 1,925 1,860 1,930 0.92 4.21% 10.63% Overweight 1,870 1,975 Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 10,975 10,900 11,050 1.40 3.90% -5.18% Underweight 10,500 11,425 TRADE & SERVICE Investment Company & Wholesale AKR Corporindo Tbk AKRA 6,700 6,500 6,875 0.63 4.28% 11.67% Overweight 6,525 6,825 United Tractors Tbk UNTR 22,600 21,500 22,975 1.21 5.00% 6.35% Overweight 21,750 23,425 Matahari Departement Store Tbk LPPF 14,950 14,650 15,300 1.05 4.30% -1.16% Overweight 14,450 15,425 Matahari Putra Prima Tbk MPPA 1,235 1,205 1,410 1.48 6.53% -16.55% Overweight 1,170 1,290 Media Nusantara Citra Tbk MNCN 1,730 1,690 1,765 1.26 6.25% -1.42% Overweight 1,660 1,795 Surya Citra Media Tbk SCMA 2,900 2,560 2,970 1.13 4.53% 3.57% Overweight 2,800 2,990 Global Mediacom Tbk BMTR 600 590 645 1.38 6.61% -2.44% Underweight 570 625 Hanson International Tbk MYRX 156 152 164 0.68 7.71% -7.69% Overweight 153 159 Siloam International Hospitals Tbk SILO 11,900 11,500 12,250 0.59 4.61% 9.17% Underweight 11,675 12,100 5

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