. LAMPIRAN
80 Lampiran 1 Hasil Estimasi Untuk Model usia SD Pooled least Square Dependent Variable: LOG(SKUL_SD01) Method: Panel Least Squares LOG(BOS_SD) 0.829950 0.065559 12.65954 0.0000 LOG(J_RIIL_DIKDAS) 0.061086 0.057376 1.064675 0.2955 LOG(PDRBKAP) -0.029963 0.123803-0.242019 0.8104 KRT_ATASSD 0.005482 0.004702 1.165825 0.2529 ART_5-0.002036 0.003617-0.562829 0.5777 P0-0.013921 0.013281-1.048216 0.3029 LOG(R_MG_SD) 0.583529 0.209589 2.784157 0.0092 LOG(R_MS_SD) -0.249073 0.183858-1.354705 0.1856 C -10.92377 1.520377-7.184909 0.0000 R-squared 0.942704 Mean dependent var 9.710952 Adjusted R-squared 0.927425 S.D. dependent var 0.595288 S.E. of regression 0.160369 Akaike info criterion -0.623501 Sum squared resid 0.771549 Schwarz criterion -0.239603 Log likelihood 21.15828 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.485762 F-statistic 61.69932 Durbin-Watson stat 2.748924 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Fixed Efect Model Dependent Variable: LOG(SKUL_SD01) Method: Panel Least Squares LOG(BOS_SD) 0.356672 0.116031 3.073934 0.0065 LOG(J_RIIL_DIKDAS) -0.002084 0.029535-0.070554 0.9445 LOG(PDRBKAP) -2.215816 0.705937-3.138830 0.0057 KRT_ATASSD 0.011406 0.006331 1.801623 0.0884 ART_5 0.010989 0.003028 3.628658 0.0019 P0-0.011183 0.032672-0.342284 0.7361 LOG(R_MG_SD) 0.162458 0.124715 1.302635 0.2091 LOG(R_MS_SD) -0.542351 0.373005-1.454006 0.1632 C 7.056235 2.515248 2.805384 0.0117 Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Effects Specification R-squared 0.995351 Mean dependent var 9.710952 Adjusted R-squared 0.990185 S.D. dependent var 0.595288 S.E. of regression 0.058975 Akaike info criterion -2.519683 Sum squared resid 0.062604 Schwarz criterion -1.623919 Log likelihood 70.13382 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.198291 F-statistic 192.6868 Durbin-Watson stat 3.195543 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
81 Hasil Uji Chow Test Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Equation: SD1 Test cross-section fixed effects Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob. Cross-section F 16.986329 (12,18) 0.0000 Cross-section Chi-square 97.951090 12 0.0000 Random Effect Model Dependent Variable: LOG(SKUL_SD01) Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances LOG(BOS_SD) 0.806181 0.027329 29.49931 0.0000 LOG(J_RIIL_DIKDAS) 0.058109 0.022420 2.591863 0.0146 LOG(PDRBKAP) -0.021870 0.054820-0.398936 0.6928 KRT_ATASSD 0.005495 0.002009 2.735149 0.0104 ART_5-0.001814 0.001357-1.336385 0.1915 P0-0.014619 0.005856-2.496507 0.0183 LOG(R_MG_SD) 0.618809 0.081425 7.599721 0.0000 LOG(R_MS_SD) -0.266754 0.075353-3.540039 0.0013 C -10.34693 0.657418-15.73872 0.0000 Effects Specification S.D. Rho Cross-section random 0.023709 0.1391 Idiosyncratic random 0.058975 0.8609 Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.920483 Mean dependent var 7.969320 Adjusted R-squared 0.899278 S.D. dependent var 0.489732 S.E. of regression 0.155425 Sum squared resid 0.724706 F-statistic 43.40962 Durbin-Watson stat 2.767594 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.942043 Mean dependent var 9.710952 Sum squared resid 0.780443 Durbin-Watson stat 2.569941 Hasil Uji Hausman Test Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Test cross-section random effects Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob. Cross-section random 186.367608 8 0.0000
82 Fixed Effect Model setelah diberi perlakuan Cross Section Weight (yang terpilih) Dependent Variable: LOG(SKUL_SD01) Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section weights) model yang terpilih Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix LOG(BOS_SD) 0.280798 0.056245 4.992385 0.0001 LOG(J_RIIL_DIKDAS) -0.024855 0.018544-1.340361 0.1968 LOG(PDRBKAP) -1.918919 0.369961-5.186816 0.0001 KRT_ATASSD 0.011040 0.003468 3.183712 0.0051 ART_5 0.009961 0.001344 7.410264 0.0000 P0-0.009711 0.017731-0.547667 0.5906 LOG(R_MG_SD) 0.085718 0.069190 1.238888 0.2313 LOG(R_MS_SD) -0.716215 0.239622-2.988941 0.0079 C 9.838093 1.625550 6.052164 0.0000 Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Effects Specification Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.999349 Mean dependent var 16.67551 Adjusted R-squared 0.998626 S.D. dependent var 11.11274 S.E. of regression 0.050299 Sum squared resid 0.045540 F-statistic 1382.389 Durbin-Watson stat 2.897743 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.994844 Mean dependent var 9.710952 Sum squared resid 0.069432 Durbin-Watson stat 2.993023
83 Lampiran 2 Hasil Estimasi Untuk Model usia SMP Pooled Least Square Dependent Variable: LOG(SKUL_SMP01) Method: Panel Least Squares LOG(J_RIIL_DIKDAS) 0.107262 0.085698 1.251633 0.2204 LOG(BOS_SMP) 0.703344 0.096603 7.280787 0.0000 KRT_ATASSD -0.003947 0.007624-0.517632 0.6085 LOG(PDRBKAP) 0.218617 0.182842 1.195657 0.2412 ART_5-0.000342 0.005675-0.060319 0.9523 LOG(R_MG_SMP) 0.545105 0.243091 2.242393 0.0325 LOG(R_MS_SMP) -0.264497 0.215013-1.230144 0.2282 P0-0.002228 0.022023-0.101166 0.9201 C -9.295042 2.408495-3.859274 0.0006 R-squared 0.842740 Mean dependent var 8.845650 Adjusted R-squared 0.800804 S.D. dependent var 0.562955 S.E. of regression 0.251254 Akaike info criterion 0.274472 Sum squared resid 1.893863 Schwarz criterion 0.658371 Log likelihood 3.647787 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.412212 F-statistic 20.09588 Durbin-Watson stat 1.719559 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Fixed Effect Model Dependent Variable: LOG(SKUL_SMP01) Method: Panel Least Squares LOG(J_RIIL_DIKDAS) 0.022318 0.056333 0.396174 0.6966 LOG(BOS_SMP) 0.410948 0.145961 2.815471 0.0115 KRT_ATASSD 0.029207 0.012448 2.346281 0.0306 LOG(PDRBKAP) -4.207007 1.484763-2.833454 0.0110 ART_5 0.019342 0.005806 3.331411 0.0037 LOG(R_MG_SMP) 0.223328 0.151674 1.472423 0.1582 LOG(R_MS_SMP) -0.230576 0.282250-0.816921 0.4247 P0-0.014689 0.064636-0.227252 0.8228 C 5.484643 2.698436 2.032526 0.0571 Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Effects Specification R-squared 0.980241 Mean dependent var 8.845650 Adjusted R-squared 0.958287 S.D. dependent var 0.562955 S.E. of regression 0.114977 Akaike info criterion -1.184442 Sum squared resid 0.237953 Schwarz criterion -0.288678 Log likelihood 44.09661 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.863049 F-statistic 44.64923 Durbin-Watson stat 2.456300 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
84 Hasil Uji Chow Test Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Test cross-section fixed effects Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob. Cross-section F 6.084265 (12,18) 0.0003 Cross-section Chi-square 63.203816 12 0.0000 Random Effect Dependent Variable: LOG(SKUL_SMP01) Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances LOG(J_RIIL_DIKDAS) 0.055302 0.046982 1.177076 0.2484 LOG(BOS_SMP) 0.563155 0.066182 8.509154 0.0000 KRT_ATASSD 0.001640 0.005780 0.283738 0.7786 LOG(PDRBKAP) 0.195464 0.149997 1.303114 0.2024 ART_5 0.000805 0.002848 0.282592 0.7794 LOG(R_MG_SMP) 0.632987 0.124019 5.103955 0.0000 LOG(R_MS_SMP) -0.358945 0.134785-2.663095 0.0123 P0-0.006877 0.017212-0.399552 0.6923 C -5.030269 1.660941-3.028566 0.0050 Effects Specification S.D. Rho Cross-section random 0.111737 0.4857 Idiosyncratic random 0.114977 0.5143 Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.662803 Mean dependent var 4.517950 Adjusted R-squared 0.572884 S.D. dependent var 0.305113 S.E. of regression 0.199404 Sum squared resid 1.192861 F-statistic 7.371092 Durbin-Watson stat 1.842409 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000022 Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.807228 Mean dependent var 8.845650 Sum squared resid 2.321535 Durbin-Watson stat 0.946674 Hasil Uji Hausman Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Test cross-section random effects Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob. Cross-section random 68.233974 8 0.0000
85 Fixed Efect Model setelah diberi pelakuan cross section effect (yang terpilih) Dependent Variable: LOG(SKUL_SMP01) Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section weights) Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix LOG(J_RIIL_DIKDAS) 0.054947 0.030313 1.812671 0.0866 LOG(BOS_SMP) 0.451934 0.080745 5.597051 0.0000 KRT_ATASSD 0.032103 0.006524 4.920347 0.0001 LOG(PDRBKAP) -4.700662 0.988034-4.757592 0.0002 ART_5 0.020734 0.004589 4.517852 0.0003 LOG(R_MG_SMP) 0.182066 0.061723 2.949752 0.0086 LOG(R_MS_SMP) -0.292969 0.135211-2.166761 0.0439 P0-0.014387 0.038680-0.371951 0.7143 C 4.940527 1.258657 3.925237 0.0010 Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Effects Specification Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.993656 Mean dependent var 16.54561 Adjusted R-squared 0.986607 S.D. dependent var 11.68325 S.E. of regression 0.106896 Sum squared resid 0.205680 F-statistic 140.9676 Durbin-Watson stat 2.796701 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.979512 Mean dependent var 8.845650 Sum squared resid 0.246732 Durbin-Watson stat 2.341558
86 Lampiran 3 Hasil Logit untuk Model Usia SD Dependent Variable Encoding Original Value Internal Value putus sekolah 0 masih sekolah 1 Categorical Variables Codings Parameter coding Frequency (1) (2) lapangan usaha KRT sektor primer 1830 1.000.000 sektor sekunder 434.000 1.000 sektor tersier 1199.000.000 pendidikan KRT SD Sederajat 1615 1.000.000 SMP sederajat 699.000 1.000 SMU sederajat dan diatasnya 1149.000.000 Jenis Kelamin perempuan 1659 1.000 laki-laki 1804.000 klasifikasi perdesaan 2142 1.000 perkotaan 1321.000 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 1203.773 8.000 Block 1203.773 8.000 Model 1203.773 8.000 Classification Table a Predicted masih sekolah Observed putus sekolah masih sekolah Percentage Correct masih sekolah putus sekolah 0 2689.0 masih sekolah 0 244532 100.0 Overall Percentage 98.9 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1 a Perdesaan(1).160.046 12.022 1.001 1.173 Perempuan(1) 1.053.046 531.267 1.000 2.867 expcap_1.015.001 134.179 1.000 1.015 JART.101.015 45.673 1.000 1.106 didik_krt 261.066 2.000 didik_krt(1) -.144.046 9.826 1.002.866 didik_krt(2) 1.082.079 188.735 1.000 2.951 lap_us_krt 5.322 2.070 lap_us_krt(1).116.051 5.123 1.024 1.123 lap_us_krt(2).079.061 1.689 1.194 1.083
87 Lampiran 4 Hasil Logit untuk Model Usia SMP Dependent Variable Encoding Original Value Internal Value putus sekolah 0 masih sekolah 1 Categorical Variables Codings Frequency Parameter coding (1) (2) lapangan usaha KRT sektor primer 844 1.000.000 sektor sekunder 197.000 1.000 sektor tersier 538.000.000 pendidikan KRT SD Sederajat 804 1.000.000 SMP sederajat 319.000 1.000 SMU sederajat dan diatasnya 456.000.000 Jenis Kelamin perempuan 766 1.000 laki-laki 813.000 klasifikasi perdesaan 978 1.000 Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients perkotaan 601.000 Chi-square df Sig. Step 1 Step 6528.186 8.000 Classification Table a Block 6528.186 8.000 Model 6528.186 8.000 Observed Predicted masih sekolah putus sekolah masih sekolah Step 1 masih sekolah putus sekolah 0 11447.0 masih sekolah 61 99638 99.9 Overall Percentage 89.6 Variables in the Equation Percentage Correct B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1 a Desa_kota(1).543.024 510.325 1.000 1.722 Jenkel(1).736.022 1.160E3 1.000 2.087 expcap_1.008.001 191.306 1.000 1.008 JART -.104.006 256.143 1.000.901 didik_krt 2.743E3 2.000 didik_krt(1) -1.487.032 2.104E3 1.000.226 didik_krt(2) -.505.038 173.328 1.000.603 lap_us_krt 427.373 2.000 lap_us_krt(1) -.124.027 20.701 1.000.884 lap_us_krt(2).610.037 266.784 1.000 1.840 Constant 2.693.060 2.032E3 1.000 14.782 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Desa_kota, Jenkel, expcap_1, JART, didik_krt, lap_us_krt.
88 Lampiran 5 Alam Tahun 2008 Kabupaten/Kota Tanah Longsor Banjir Banjir Bandang Gempa Bumi Gelombang Pasang Laut Angin Puyuh Gunung Meletus Kebakaran Hutan Bolaang Mongondow 40 147 31 12 17 19 0 3 Minahasa 39 34 7 32 2 34 24 2 Kep.Sangihe Kep. Talaud Minahasa Selatan Minahasa Utara Bolaang Mongondow Utara Kep. Sitaro Minahasa Tenggara 37 27 6 2 28 10 0 2 15 12 0 42 33 7 0 0 49 24 8 39 9 31 22 1 9 2 6 3 4 6 0 0 2 29 4 0 0 4 0 0 6 3 0 8 7 10 4 0 44 29 5 17 6 2 28 2 Manado 42 47 7 30 3 4 0 0 Bitung 16 18 0 1 13 2 0 2 Tomohon 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kotamobagu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 303 375 74 186 122 129 78 12 Sumber:PODES, 2008
89 Lampiran 6 Jarak Sekolah SD Terdekat dari Desa yang Tidak Memiliki Sekolah SD Kabupaten/Kota 0-1 1,1-2 2,1-3 3,1-4 4,1-5 >5 Jumlah Desa Bolaang Mongondow 13 1 2 1 1 1 19 Minahasa 8 1 1 1 2 0 13 Kep.Sangihe 5 1 0 0 0 0 6 Kep. Talaud 40 2 0 1 2 0 45 Minahasa Selatan 3 0 1 0 1 0 5 Minahasa Utara 1 2 1 0 0 0 4 Bolaang Mongondow Utara 7 1 0 0 0 0 8 Kep. Sitaro 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 Minahasa Tenggara 4 2 0 0 1 0 7 Manado 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 Bitung 6 2 0 0 1 0 9 Tomohon 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 Kotamobagu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 95 12 5 3 8 1 124
90 Lampiran 7 Jarak Sekolah SMP Terdekat dari Desa yang Tidak Memiliki Sekolah SMP Jumlah Kabupaten/Kota 0-2 2,1-4 4,1-6 6,1-8 8,1-10 >10 Desa Bolaang Mongondow 85 41 20 7 11 11 175 Minahasa 70 31 10 5 2 2 120 Kep.Sangihe 38 28 24 3 2 4 99 Kep. Talaud 56 37 11 2 4 3 113 Minahasa Selatan 47 13 9 5 5 1 80 Minahasa Utara 32 15 6 1 1 3 58 Bolaang Mongondow Utara 34 15 4 2 0 5 60 Kep. Sitaro 32 20 6 1 0 1 60 Minahasa Tenggara 32 6 2 0 3 4 47 Manado 20 6 2 0 0 0 28 Bitung 22 9 4 2 3 1 41 Tomohon 15 3 0 0 0 0 18 Kotamobagu 21 0 0 0 0 0 21 Total 504 224 98 28 31 35 920
91 Lampiran 8 Perbandingan Angka Putus Sekolah SD tahun 2008-2010 Kabupaten/Kota 2008 2009 2010 Perbandingan 2008 dan 2009 Perbandingan 2009 dan 2010 Bolaang Mongondow 2 3 2 memburuk membaik Minahasa 2 1 1 membaik tetap Kep.Sangihe 3 3 3 tetap tetap Kep. Talaud 1 1 1 tetap tetap Minahasa Selatan 2 3 1 memburuk membaik Minahasa Utara 2 1 1 membaik tetap Bolaang Mongondow Utara 1 2 3 memburuk memburuk Kep. Sitaro 2 1 1 membaik membaik Minahasa Tenggara 1 1 1 tetap tetap Manado 1 3 3 memburuk tetap Bitung 2 1 1 membaik tetap Tomohon 2 1 1 membaik tetap Kotamobagu 3 2 3 membaik memburuk Keterangan: 1 : Putus sekolah dibawah rata-rata ( < 1,80 persen) 2 : Rata-rata putus sekolah ( 1,80-1,708 persen) 3 : Putus sekolah diatas rata-rata ( > 1,708 persen)
92 Lampiran 9 Perbandingan Angka Putus Sekolah SMP tahun 2008-2010 Perubahan Perubahan 2008 2009 2010 Kabupaten/Kota 2008 ke 2009 2009 ke 2010 Bolaang Mongondow 3 3 3 tetap tetap Minahasa 1 3 1 memburuk membaik Kep.Sangihe 3 2 3 membaik memburuk Kep. Talaud 1 1 1 tetap tetap Minahasa Selatan 3 2 1 membaik membaik Minahasa Utara 1 1 2 tetap memburuk Bolaang Mongondow Utara 3 1 1 membaik tetap Kep. Sitaro 2 1 1 membaik tetap Minahasa Tenggara 2 2 1 tetap membaik Manado 1 1 2 tetap memburuk Bitung 2 2 2 tetap tetap Tomohon 1 1 1 tetap tetap Kotamobagu 2 1 1 membaik tetap Keterangan: 1 : Putus sekolah dibawah rata-rata ( < 9,23 persen) 2 : Rata-rata putus sekolah ( 9,23-14,78 persen) 3 : Putus sekolah diatas rata-rata ( > 14,78 persen)