JCI Industry Revenue (IDR bn) Profit before income tax (IDR bn) Net income (IDR mn) EPS (IDR) BV (IDR) Revenue growth (%) EPS growth (%) Current ratio (X) Altman ZScore Debttoequity (X) ROE (%) PEG (X) P/E (X) P/BV (X) Source : MCI Research, Bloomberg 642 143 140 5 27 2.0 20.0% 165.6 33.1 2,644 346 334 13 50 311.9% 138.3% 0.4 1.7 0.6 25.1% 0.50 69.5 17.5 4,717 967 635 24 281 78.4% 89.9% 1.7 2.3 0.5 8.6% 0.41 36.6 3.1 7,288 1,420 905 34 326 54.5% 42.5% 1.4 2.7 0.4 10.5% 0.60 25.7 2.7 9,075 1,782 1,112 42 380 24.5% 22.9% 1.4 2.9 0.4 11.1% 0.91 20.9 2.3 10,245 2,018 1,247 47 442 12.9% 12.2% 1.5 3.0 0.4 10.7% 1.53 18.6 2.0
Kapasitas Pabrik Beton Pracetak Legundi Klaten 275 150 Gasing 250 ribu ton/tahun Subang 350 Bojonegara 200 Palembang 200 Sidoarjo Kalijati 400 250 Karawang 450 Sadang 350 Cibitung 350
Kapasitas Produksi per tahun 3.70 3.80 3.25 2.65 1.80 0.62 FY13 0.80 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 juta ton/tahun
Kapasitas Produksi Beton Pracetak Total Order Book 3.70 3.80 34.6 3.25 30.6 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 24.4 2.20 IDR tn juta ton/tahun 2.65 2.20 1.80 15.1 0.80 4.4 4.2 5.9 4.3 22.1% Net Margin 21.9% 20.2% 19.3% 13.7% 11.7% 12.9% 19.4% 13.0% 19.5% 13.0% 12.6% 6.6% 13.5% 12.4% 10.1% 9.0% Operating Margin 12.5% 13.3 11.9 10.0 7.5 7.8% 8.5% 12.3% 8.6% 12.2% 8.7%
Return on Equity Return on Asset 25.1% 11.7% 21.9% 20.0% 22.0% 20.9% 8.7% 8.7% 7.7% 15.0% 7.7% 10.9% 8.6% 11.1% 10.5% 10.7% 8.7% 8.7% 5.7% Altman ZScore Debt to Equity Ratio 0.68 0.67 4.0 3.9 0.63 0.57 3.5 0.45 0.39 0.26 8.7% 5.9% 5.7% 4.6% 8.7% 0.37 2.4 2.3 0.27 0.20 3.0 2.9 2.7 0.37 2.5 2.5 1.7 Belanja Modal Total Asset 21.74 1,997 18.92 15.86 7.65 3.80 4.334.46 9.25 10.76 4.66 443 22 900 832 644 1.20 IDR bn IDR tn 13.73 482 425 750 375 435 124
No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Nama Proyek Jalan Tol Benoa Underpass Simpang Patal Pusri Jalan Tol Becakayu Golf Island Jalan Tol Solo Kertosono Normalisasi Kali Pesanggrahan Jalan Tol CikampekPalimanan Jalan Tol MKTT Superblok K2 Park Tangerang Jalan Tol CimanggisCibitung Dermaga Kuala Tanjung Jalan Tol DepokAntasari Light Rail Transit (LRT) Jalan Tol PejaganPemalang Jalur Kereta Api Bandara Soetta Jalan Tol Bocimi Pengaman Pantai Jakarta (Giant Sea Wall) Perluasan Gedung Terminal 3 Soetta Jalan Tol ManadoBitung Aksesibilitas & ducting Bandara Soetta JUFMP (JEDI 7) Jalan Tol SemarangBatang Jalan Tol Kayu Aung Saluran Penghubung DKI Jakarta NCICD Aliran Barat Timur Lokasi Bali Sumatera Selatan Jakarta Jakarta Jawa Tengah Jakarta Jawa Barat Sumatera Utara Jakarta Jakarta Sumatera Utara Jawa Barat Sumatera Selatan Jawa Tengah Banten Jawa Barat Jakarta Banten Manado Jawa Barat Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Sumatera Selatan Jakarta Jakarta Tahun 2013 2013 2014 2014 201415 201415 201415 2015 2015 2015 201416 201516 201516 201516
Grafik 13Perolehan Kontrak Baru Grafik 14Total Order Book Kontrak Baru Total Order Book 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 12.2 12.4 360.5% 11.0 10.0 4.1 2.7 1.1% 35.2% 11.0% 9.1% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 50% 100% 34.6 30.6 24.4 24.6 19.6 15.1 12.0 2.8 5.9 4.4 12.2 12.4 0.3 3.2 11.0 10.0 4.1 2.7 Kontrak Baru (IDR tn) Pertumbuhan (%YoY) Kontrak Baru (IDR tn) Carry Over (IDR tn) Order Book (IDR tn) Sumber : MCS Research, Bloomberg Untuk target Pendapatan tahun 2017 ini kami memproyeksikan di level IDR 7.3 triliun atau tumbuh sebesar 54.5% YoY. Kami mencapai kesimpulan untuk target Pendapatan tersebut setelah memper mbangkan data historis dalam menyelesaikan proyek di suatu tahun berjalan, seper yang tercermin dari carry over proyek se ap tahunnya. Sedangkan untuk Laba Bersih di tahun 2017 kami proyeksikan dapat tumbuh sebesar 42.5% YoY ke level IDR 905 miliar. Jika membandingkan dengan management guidance terkait target perolehan Pendapatan dan Laba Bersih 2017 angka kami cukup konserva f. Untuk Pendapatan, manajemen menargetkan angka IDR 7.9 triliun (versi kami IDR 7.3 triliun) sehingga target kami 7.6% dibawah target manajemen. Sedangkan untuk Laba Bersih manajemen menargetkan sebesar IDR 1.21 triliun (versi kami IDR 905 miliar) sehingga target kami 25.2% dibawah target manajemen. Grafik 15Target Kinerja Pendapatan Grafik 16Target Kinerja Laba Bersih Proyeksi Pendapatan Proyeksi Laba Bersih 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 311.9% 10.2 9.1 7.3 4.7 2.6 78.4% 0.6 54.5% 24.5% 12.9% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 1,247 138.3% 1,112 905 89.9% 635 334 42.5% 140 22.9% 12.2% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Pendapatan (IDR tn) Pertumbuhan (%YoY) Laba Bersih (IDR bn) Pertumbuhan (%YoY) Sumber : MCS Research,, Bloomberg
Cash Flow 4,108 1,792 272 (85) 1,962 1,167 2,186 1,611 (174) (686) (524) (3,035) Cash Flow f/ Operation (IDR bn) Net Change in Cash Flow (IDR bn)
Anggaran Infrastruktur tdhp Belanja APBN Belanja Pemerintah dalam PDB 1,400 16% 1,300 1,200 14.0% 1,100 9.6% 1,000 1,125 1,172 1,223 996 900 7.1% 909 800 700 1,310 12.9% 12.3% 797 4.2% 4.3% 14% 10% 300 8% 200 2% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Belanja Pemerintah (IDR tn) INDIKATOR Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (YoY) Inflasi (YoY) USD/IDR Suku Bunga SPN Harga Minyak ICP (Per Barel) Sumber: Kemenkeu FY16 APBNP 2017 5,2% 4,3% Rp13.400 5,2% USD 48 15.2% 317 250 150 100 9.8% 50 440 19% 17% 15% 156 9.5% 139 209 10.5% 11% 9% 7.9% FY13 FY14 7% FY15 Belanja Infrastruktur (IDR tn) APBN 2018 5,4% 3,5% Rp13.400 5,2% USD 48 18.2% 387 21% 13% 146 FY12 Pertumbuhan (%YoY) APBNP 5,2% 4% Rp13.500 5,5% USD 35 400 350 6% 20.0% 450 12% 4% 600 500 FY16 % thdp Belanja APBN
Method DCF PER PBV PS Value Weight (8,974) 0% 1,104 25% 1,132 25% 645 50% 12mo Target Price ASSUMPTION Cost of Debt (Gross) Tax Rate Cost of Debt (Net) Riskfree Rate Market Return Risk Premium Beta Cost of Equity Debt to Asset Ratio WACC Return on Assets Dividend Payout Ratio Retention Rate Terminal Growth Total 276 283 322 881 0.0% 37% 0.0% 7.2% 6.7% 0.5% 1.2 6.6% 0.2 5.3% 6.9% 30% 0.7 5.1% 1 1,405 515 890 154 1,997 (843) (110) (104) (234,651) 2,058 3,976 (236,569) (8,974) Operating Profit Income Tax Operating Profit After Tax +Depreciation Capital Expenditure Change Working Capital FCFF PV of FCFF Value of the Firm Cash Total Debt Value of Equity Fair Value per Share 2 1,761 670 1,091 219 900 612 (203) (183) 3 4 Terminal 1,994 771 1,222 242 750 1,376 (661) (273,038) (566) (233,797) Relative Valuation Price to Earning 875 Price to Book Value 1,332 926 Price to Sales 529 500 1,337 760 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Price 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Current Price 12mo Target Price
Apendix 1Laporan Neraca dan Laba Rugi (IDR bn) BALANCED SHEET Assets + Cash & Near Cash Items 272 98 4,206 3,682 4,849 6,460 + ShortTerm Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 640 512 3,046 4,144 5,205 5,900 + Inventories 21 55 232 342 435 496 + Other Current Assets 47 339 649 1,027 1,290 1,463 Total Current Assets 981 1,004 8,133 9,194 11,779 14,319 + LT Investments & LT Receivables 0 2,320 3,628 2,974 2,974 2,974 + Net Fixed Assets 222 987 1,933 3,621 4,084 4,350 + Gross Fixed Assets 229 1,082 2,145 3,987 4,669 5,177 Accumulated Depreciation 7 95 212 366 585 827 + Other LongTerm Assets 0 21 41 67 86 97 Total LongTerm Assets 222 3,329 5,602 6,663 7,144 7,421 Total Assets 1,203 4,332 13,734 15,857 18,923 21,740 Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity + Accounts Payable 131 730 1,542 2,401 3,020 3,426 + ShortTerm Borrowings 0 302 1,907 2,907 3,746 4,296 + Other ShortTerm Liabilities 369 1,400 1,317 1,363 1,877 2,085 Total Current Liabilities 500 2,432 4,766 6,671 8,643 9,807 + LongTerm Borrowings 0 459 1,449 401 0 0 + Other LongTerm Liabilities 0 110 114 203 252 284 Total LongTerm Liabilities 0 569 1,562 604 252 284 Total Liabilities 500 3,002 6,329 7,275 8,895 10,091 + Total Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Share Capital & APIC 562 762 6,581 6,581 6,581 6,581 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity 140 569 825 2,001 3,447 5,068 Total Equity 702 1,331 7,406 8,582 10,027 11,649 Total Liabilities & Equity 1,203 4,332 13,734 15,857 18,923 21,740 Book Value per Share 27 50 281 326 380 442 INCOME STATEMENT Revenue 642 2,644 4,717 7,288 9,075 10,245 Cost of Revenue 495 2,225 3,667 5,725 7,116 8,027 Gross Profit 147 419 1,050 1,562 1,958 2,217 + Other Operating Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating Expenses 5 56 97 157 197 224 Operating Income or Losses 142 363 953 1,405 1,761 1,994 Interest Expense 0 0 0 0 0 0 Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 0 1 0 0 0 0 Net NonOperating Losses (Gains) (1) 17 (14) (15) (21) (25) Pretax Income 143 346 967 1,420 1,782 2,018 Income Tax Expense (Benefit) 2 11 333 515 670 771 Income Before XO Items 140 334 635 905 1,112 1,247 Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Income/Net Profit (Losses) 140 334 635 905 1,112 1,247 Total Cash Preferred Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Inc Avail to Common Shareholders 140 334 635 905 1,112 1,247 Earning per Share 5 13 24 34 42 47 Revenue per Share 24 100 179 276 344 389
Apendix 2Laporan Arus Kas dan Analisa Rasio (IDR bn) CASH FLOW STATEMENT Cash From Operating Activities + Net Income 140 334 635 905 1,112 1,247 + Depreciation & Amortization 7 87 117 154 219 242 + Other NonCash Adjustments (233) (1,108) (3,787) 733 632 696 Cash From Operations (85) (686) (3,035) 1,792 1,962 2,186 Cash From Investing Activities + Disposal of Fixed Assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Capital Expenditures (22) (124) (832) (1,997) (900) (750) + Change in Investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Other Investing Activities 0 0 (1) 0 0 0 Cash From Investing Activities (22) (124) (833) (1,997) (900) (750) Cash from Financing Activities + Dividends Paid 0 0 0 (271) (334) (374) + Change in ShortTerm Borrowings 0 0 0 1,000 840 550 + Change in LongTerm Borrowings 0 501 2,595 (1,048) (401) 0 + Change in Capital Stocks 379 135 5,467 0 0 0 + Other Financing Activities 0 0 (86) 0 0 0 Cash from Financing Activities 379 636 7,976 (319) 105 175 Net Changes in Cash 272 (174) 4,108 (524) 1,167 1,611 RATIO LIQUIDITY Current ratio (X) 2.0 0.4 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 Altman ZScore 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.0 GROWTH Revenue growth (%) 311.9% 78.4% 54.5% 24.5% 12.9% Operating income growth (%) 156.1% 162.3% 47.4% 25.3% 13.2% Profit before income tax growth (%) 142.2% 179.9% 46.8% 25.5% 13.3% Net income growth (%) 138.3% 89.9% 42.5% 22.9% 12.2% PROFITABILITY Gross profit margin (%) 22.9% 15.9% 22.3% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% Operating income margin (%) 22.1% 13.7% 20.2% 19.3% 19.4% 19.5% Net income margin (%) 21.9% 12.6% 13.5% 12.4% 12.3% 12.2% Return on equity (%) 20.0% 25.1% 8.6% 10.5% 11.1% 10.7% Return on assets (%) 11.7% 7.7% 4.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% LEVERAGE Debttoequity (X) 0.57 0.45 0.39 0.37 0.37 Debttoasset (X) 0.18 0.24 0.21 0.20 0.20 VALUATION Price to earnings ratio (X) 165.6 69.5 36.6 25.7 20.9 18.6 Price to book ratio (X) 33.1 17.5 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 PEG ratio (X) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.5