MACRO & DEBT MARKET Daily Report

August 2, 2010 MACRO & DEBT MARKET Daily Report RESEARCH IDR/USD 8,935 0.168-1.085-1.303 Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield USD/EUR 1.308 0.238 0.677 4.422 1 Year 6.455-0.012-0.034 6.769 JPY/USD 86.570 0.116-0.357-1.176 2 Year 6.660 0.040 0.000 7.120 GBP/USD 1.573 0.249 1.543 3.637 3 Year 7.290 0.260 0.223 7.333 4 Year 7.398 0.012-0.021 7.464 5 Year 7.501-0.027-0.148 7.568 6 Year 7.683-0.039-0.088 7.676 Last (%) 7 Year 7.814-0.010-0.158 7.801 IDR JIBOR 8 Year 8.022-0.003-0.078 7.945 O / N 6.232 0.016 0.035 0.001 9 Year 8.052-0.001-0.171 8.103 1M 6.512 0.000 0.017 0.022 10 Year 8.084-0.016-0.198 8.270 3M 6.989 0.000 0.045 0.121 15 Year 8.796-0.041-0.253 9.069 USD LIBOR O / N 0.241-0.001-0.007-0.065 1M 0.305-0.007-0.022-0.043 3M 0.454-0.012-0.039-0.080 SBI BI Rate 6.500 0.000 1M 6.262 0.000 0.000 0.000 3M 6.630 0.000-0.070 0.034 IDR Average Deposit 1M 6.531 0.014 0.049-0.015 3M 6.600 0.025 0.047-0.037 12M 6.729 0.002 0.029-0.017 Others FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY Last Fed Fund (o/n) 0.210 0.010 0.010 0.170 US T-Bills 1M 0.138-0.002-0.189-0.032 US T-Bills 3M 0.143-0.005-0.010-0.001 SIBOR 1M 0.320-0.003-0.013-0.032 EURIBOR 1M 0.645 0.002 0.012 0.160 Indonesia Govt CDS 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80-1 day chg (+/- %) -1 week chg (+/- %) TREASURY & MONEY MARKET -1 day chg -1 week chg -1 month chg (+/- %) -1 month chg Last (%) DEBT MARKET -1 day chg Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 1-Mar 29-Mar 26-Apr 24-May 21-Jun 19-2Y 5Y 10Y 10Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 12- May 22- May 1- Jun 11- Jun 10Y U.S. Treasury Note 21- Jun 1-11- 21-31- 1 Y 10Y Indonesia Soverign US$ Bond 2 Y 3 Y 4 Y 5 Y 6 Y 7 Y -1 week chg 8 Y 9 Y 10 Y Last -1 Month Estimate Last Price Median Estimate Most Active Govt Bonds VR0019 98.49 225.8 FR0054 101.25 154.0 SPN110407 95.94 125.2 VR0020 98.25 122.0 VR0017 99.60 117.0 SPN110505 95.91 100.0 FR0019 119.00 95.0 FR0027 108.75 85.0 FR0051 112.95 70.0 SPN110707 94.73 70.0 Most Active Corp Bonds PPLN12A 101.43 29.0 FIFA10B 100.09 20.0 ASDF11B 100.17 15.0 BTPN01B 106.40 13.0 PPGD12A 101.95 11.0 TLKM02A 101.18 10.0 TLKM02B 101.05 10.0 ISAT05B 104.60 10.0 PPGD12A 101.25 10.0 BBTN14 102.30 10.0 15 Y Volume (RpBn) Data Source: Bloomberg & CTP

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Riil GDP (yoy) 4.21 5.43 5.69 Private Consumption 4.75 3.96 3.92 Government Consumption 10.20 16.97-8.81 Investment (PDBRT) 3.95 4.18 7.89 Inflation CPI (yoy) 2.83 2.57 2.41 2.78 3.72 3.81 3.43 3.91 4.16 5.05 CPI (mom) 1.05 0.19-0.03 0.33 0.84 0.30-0.14 0.15 0.29 0.97 Consumption Motorcycle Sales (Units) 421,626 613,979 546,352 551,955 501,694 537,031 608,691 655,813 640,234 Automobile Sales (Units) 37,209 52,226 48,329 47,948 52,806 55,656 65,523 65,232 60,526 Cement Sales (mn tons) 2.80 4.20 3.81 4.07 3.48996 3.15686 3.61845 Consumer Confidence Index 110.8 110.0 111.0 108.7 110.5 105.3 107.4 110.7 109.9 111.4 Foreign Trade Current Account (USD mn) 1,326.0 2,812.6 1,897.7 3,001.9 2,031.4 1,707.0 1,801.8 799.4 2,467.6 Export (yoy) -19.8 13.5 11.3 49.8 59 57.1 48.3 42.4 36 Import (yoy) -24.6-12.1-2.4 33.38 44.58 59.9 67.42 67.53 31.6 Reserves Foreign Reserve (USD bio) 62.3 64.5 65.8 66.1 69.6 69.7 71.8 78.6 74.6 76.3 Net International Reserve (Rp trn) 596.4 609.5 587.4 585.9 616.2 616.1 620.6 674.8 651.3 660.2 Moneter (yoy) M1 Money Supply 2.1 5.8 6.8 10.7 10.69 12.72 10.36 9.22 12.59 M2 Money Supply 13.5 11.5 11.4 12.4 12.38 8.75 8.63 10.59 9.75 Financial Sector BI rate (%) 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 SBI 3 months (%) 6.55 6.60 6.59 6.59 6.60 6.59 6.56 6.50 6.58 6.60 SUN 10 years (%) 9.98 10.163 10.174 10.06 9.791 9.847 9.096 8.601 8.943 8.379 Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD) 9,665 9,550 9,468 9,480 9,360 9,335 9,095 9,013 9,180 9,053 Source: Bloomberg & CEIC HISTORICAL & FORECAST OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 Kepemilikan SUN yang dapat diperdagangkan per 29 i 2010 (dalam Rp Triliun) Holders Mar April May June 23-26- 27-28- 29-2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Bank 237.74 236.04 236.45 232.67 229.40 229.20 229.12 228.80 227.78 Reksadana 44.18 46.75 47.30 48.84 49.36 49.36 49.40 49.39 49.35 Asuransi 78.04 75.31 77.23 77.44 80.40 80.40 80.43 80.40 80.42 Dana Pensiun 37.24 37.15 37.52 36.48 37.03 37.03 37.09 37.07 37.01 Sekuritas 0.42 0.22 0.25 0.13 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 Lain-Lain 44.37 45.35 45.77 44.49 44.33 44.32 44.31 44.29 44.26 Asing 132.46 148.13 144.09 162.05 169.58 169.79 169.74 170.14 171.89 Source: DMO 2

Obligasi Indofood Naik Jadi Rp1,61 T BI: Instrumen Surat Utang Tak Masuk LDR Obligasi Pertamina US$ 1,5 Miliar Terancam Molor PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) saat ini sedang dalam proses penerbitan Obligasi V tahun 2009 berjangka waktu 5 tahun. Nilai obligasi berubah dari Rp1 triliun menjadi Rp1,61 triliun. Sebelumnya, manajemen INDF sempat mengatakan akan menambah nilai obligasi menjadi Rp1,5 triliun bila permintaan membludak (oversubcribe). INDF akan memakai sebagian dana hasil penerbitan obligasi tersebut untuk melunasi Obligasi Indofood III senilai Rp976 miliar yang jatuh tempo i 2009 mendatang. Utang INDF per 31 Desember 2008 mencapai Rp14,83 triliun. Sekitar Rp7,2 triliun di antaranya merupakan utang jangka pendek, sisanya berupa utang jangka panjang. Bank Indonesia (BI) menegaskan instrumen surat berharga yang ditempatkan oleh bank berupa obligasi korporasi atau semacamnya tidak akan dimasukkan dalam penghitungan Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR). Aturan yang akan segera dirilis mengenai LDR yang dikaitkan dengan Giro Wajib Minimum (GWM) hanya memperhitungkan rasio penyaluran kredit. Gubernur BI terpilih Darmin Nasution mengatakan aturan LDR-GWM akan segera diumumkan dalam waktu dekat. Sebelumnya kalangan perbankan meminta agar penempatan dana dalam surat utang atau obligasi dimasukkan dalam penghitungan LDR. Darmin menjelaskan instrumen surat berharga yang dibeli oleh bank bukan merupakan pinjaman yang akan menggerakan sekto riil. Tetapi menurutnya, hanya merupakan pinjaman ke pasar saham. Lebih lanjut Darmin mengatakan hingga saat ini bank sentral masih mengkaji mengenai batasan LDR yang harus dipenuhi oleh bank. Ia menjamin rasio LDR yang akan ditetapkan tidak akan membuat bank kesulitan. Rencana PT Pertamina (Persero) untuk menerbitkan obligasi US$ 1,5 miliar pada September 2010 kemungkinan akan mundur lagi. Menurut Direktur Keuangan Pertamina, M. Afdhal Bahaudin, hingga kini hasil audit terhadap laporan keuangan tahun 2009 yang dilakukan oleh lembaga audit Ernst&Young dan kantor akuntan publik PSS Purwanto masih belum selesai. Padahal, salah satu syarat penerbitan obligasi adalah laporan keuangan dua tahun terakhir harus selesai diaudit. Pertamina sendiri sudah menyelesaikan audit untuk laporan keuangan 2008, tinggal menunggu laporan keuangan tahun lalu selesai diperiksa. Namun, Afdal berharap penerbitan obligasi bisa tetap terlaksana pada tahun ini juga. Rencananya dana hasil oblihasi akan digunakan untuk kegiatan investasi pengembangan sektor upstream, downstream, sampai midstream. "Karena due diligence, legal dan sebagainya kita sudah siapkan," ungkapnya. Semula, BUMN migas itu menargetkan penerbitan surat utang itu bisa dilakukan sekitar bulan April-Mei 2010 lalu. Manajemen perusahaan pelat merah itu kemudian sepakat untuk memundurkan jadwal penerbitannya karena masih menunggu hasil audit laporan keuangan tahun 2009. Tahun ini, perseroan menganggarkan capex sebanyak Rp 39 triliun. Dana itu naik sebesar 56,4 persen dari capex tahun sebelumnya yang hanya sebanyak Rp 22 triliun. 3

GOVERNMENT BONDS VALUATION Last Price data: 30--2010 Series Maturity Date Coupon Last Price YTM Yield Curve Valuation Price FR0024 15-Oct-10 12.00% 101.35 5.09% 5.83% 101.20 FR0014 15-Nov-10 15.58% 102.73 5.70% 5.86% 102.68 FR0021 15-Dec-10 14.50% 103.00 6.10% 5.90% 103.07 FR0015 15-Feb-11 13.40% 104.10 5.52% 5.98% 103.85 FR0016 15-Aug-11 13.45% 107.10 6.26% 6.20% 107.16 FR0022 15-Sep-11 12.00% 106.08 6.27% 6.23% 106.13 FR0025 15-Oct-11 10.00% 104.07 6.41% 6.27% 104.24 FR0017 15-Jan-12 13.15% 108.90 6.62% 6.37% 109.26 FR0018 15--12 13.18% 111.34 6.87% 6.56% 111.94 FR0023 15-Dec-12 11.00% 108.70 6.94% 6.71% 109.23 FR0033 15-Mar-13 12.50% 112.90 7.02% 6.80% 113.45 FR0019 15-Jun-13 14.25% 118.35 7.07% 6.88% 118.87 FR0049 15-Sep-13 9.00% 105.02 7.17% 6.96% 105.61 FR0020 15-Dec-13 14.28% 120.65 7.25% 7.04% 121.36 FR0051 15-May-14 11.25% 112.66 7.35% 7.16% 113.32 FR0026 15-Oct-14 11.00% 112.78 7.40% 7.28% 113.24 FR0027 15-Jun-15 9.50% 108.11 7.48% 7.45% 108.21 FR0030 15-May-16 10.75% 114.13 7.67% 7.67% 114.15 FR0028 15--17 10.00% 111.64 7.80% 7.91% 111.01 FR0032 15--18 15.00% 139.21 8.19% 8.09% 139.94 FR0038 15-Aug-18 11.60% 121.16 7.98% 8.10% 120.35 FR0048 15-Sep-18 9.00% 105.99 7.98% 8.12% 105.16 FR0036 15-Sep-19 11.50% 122.20 8.02% 8.27% 120.36 FR0031 15-Nov-20 11.00% 120.33 8.05% 8.43% 117.40 FR0034 15-Jun-21 12.80% 132.46 8.22% 8.50% 130.05 FR0035 15-Jun-22 12.90% 133.01 8.44% 8.62% 131.41 FR0043 15--22 10.25% 113.01 8.49% 8.63% 111.95 FR0046 15--23 9.50% 106.67 8.63% 8.73% 105.92 FR0039 15-Aug-23 11.75% 124.11 8.63% 8.73% 123.19 FR0044 15-Sep-24 10.00% 110.04 8.75% 8.83% 109.31 FR0040 15-Sep-25 11.00% 118.34 8.78% 8.91% 117.15 FR0037 15-Sep-26 12.00% 126.41 8.88% 8.98% 125.42 FR0042 15--27 10.25% 108.08 9.29% 9.04% 110.41 FR0047 15-Feb-28 10.00% 108.08 9.07% 9.07% 108.05 FR0052 15-Aug-30 10.50% 108.08 9.58% 9.21% 111.72 FR0045 15-May-37 9.75% 101.36 9.61% 9.46% 102.83 FR0050 15--38 10.50% 107.70 9.70% 9.49% 109.87 Yield Difference (in bps) 80 60 40 20 0-20 FR0014 FR0024 FR0021 FR0013 FR0015 FR0025 FR0022 FR0016 FR0017 FR0018 FR0023 FR0019 FR0033 FR0049 FR0020 FR0051 FR0026 FR0027 FR0030 FR0038 FR0028FR0032 FR0048 FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0035 FR0043 FR0046 FR0039 FR0044 FR0040 FR0037 FR0042 FR0047 FR0052 FR0045-40 -60 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Years to Maturity 4

MACRO & DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Research Dept. : +62 21 25543946 Fax No : +62 21 57935831 E-mail : research@bnisecurities.co.id Norico Gaman ext. 3934 norico@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Research Deoly Rawendra ext. 2050 deo@bnisecurities.co.id Debt Analyst Dian Kurniati ext. 2051 dian@bnisecurities.co.id Research Adm. DEBT MARKET TEAM Debt Capital Market Division : +62 21 25543946 Fax No : +62 21 5796934 E-mail : fi@bnisecurities.co.id Sukartono ext. 3974 karton@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Division Anang Roso ext. 3936 anang@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Sales 5

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