Indonesian Policy of Supplying Natural Gas & LNG for Power, Industries & Shipping IGN Wiratmaja Director General of Oil & Gas Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources 6 th Annual LNG Transport, Handling & Storage Forum 2016 Bali, 14 September 2016 1 1
INDONESIA AS A MARITIME COUNTRY + 5,000 km 2 2
1. Indonesia Oil & Gas Balance 3 3
PROYEKSI PRODUKSI GAS BUMI 2015 2050 dalam MMSCFD 4 4
NERACA GAS BUMI INDONESIA 2015 2030 2019 MULAI IMPOR GAS National Energy Agency Forecast: Gas demand in 2025 will make up to 20% of National Energy Mix (7,134 BOED), or 8,249 BBTUD 5 5
PEMANFAATAN GAS BUMI INDONESIA 2016 LPG Domestik 2.50% LNG Domestik 5.91% 2,000 Realisasi Penyaluran Gas Pipa untuk Domestik Tahun 2016 Kelistrikan 14.98% 1,800 1,600 1,510.91 1,814.76 1,400 LNG Ekspor 29.10% Pupuk 10.50% BBTUD 1,200 1,000 1,024.60 1,136.39 758.76 800 718.09 600 Ekspor Gas Pipa 11.80% BBG Transportasi 0.06% City Gas 0.05% Industri 22.10% Lifting Minyak 3.02% 400 200-321.05 206.20 3.51 3.13 3.78 Kelistrikan Pupuk Industri Lifting Minyak City Gas Realisasi (BBTUD) Kontrak 8.50 Status s.d. Mei 2016 6 6
NATIONAL OIL & GAS DEMAND & PRODUCTION In mboepd In 2015 the gap between national supply and demand begins. 15 Years AVE CAGR OE Production 4% 5.500 5.000 4.500 4.000 +4% 3.950 4.550 5.315 3.500 3.270 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 2.270 2.025 2.230 2.065 2.195 2.120 2.600 2.190 2.190 1.810 1.435 1.085 785 535 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 7 source : ESDM, SKK Migas, Upstream Team Projection 4 National Supply National Demand 7
NATIONAL GAS DEMAND & PRODUCTION In mmscfd In 2021 the gap between national supply and demand begins. Gas Consumption Industry (98,26%) Household (0,11%) Commercial (1,34%) Transportation (0,29%) 15 Years CAGR Average 7% 18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 8.165 3.640 8.130 8.145 3.650 3.910 8.110 3.995 7.000 5.800 +7% 5.700 9.100 11.300 4.100 13.600 3.400 16.300 2.500 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 National Supply National Demand source : ESDM, SKK Migas, Upstream Team Projection 8 8
2. Gas Infrastructure Development 9 9
Infrastruktur Gas Bumi Existing & Rencana EXISTING ROADMAP 2016 2030 Pipa 12 Regasific ation 6.1 KEBUTUHAN INVESTASI (Miliar USD) Liquefac tion 25.6 Jargas 2.2 SPBG + CNG 1.93 TOTAL LPG 0.4 48.2 10 10
VIRTUAL PIPELINE CLUSTER CONCEPT CLUSTER II (MALUKU) Pembangkit 130 MMSCFD [875MW] Smelter 100 MMSFD Industri 55 MMSCFD Rumah Tangga 1 MMSCFD CLUSTER II (MALUKU) CLUSTER I (PAPUA) Pembangkit 138M MSCFD [630 MW] Industri 288 MMSCFD Rumah Tangga 1 MMSCFD CLUSTER IV (NATUNA) CLUSTER I (PAPUA) CLUSTER IV (NATUNA) Pembangkit 49 MMSCFD [495 MW] Rumah Tangga 1 MMSCFD CLUSTER III (NUSA TENGGARA) Pembangkit 183 MMSCFD [1750 MW] Smelter 100 MMSCFD Rumah Tangga 1 MMSCFD CLUSTER III (NUSA TENGGARA) Cluster I Cluster II Cluster III Cluster IV Papua dan Papua Barat Maluku, Maluku Utara, Sulawesi Utara, Sulawesi Tengah Nusa Tenggara Timur, Nusa Tenggara Barat, Sulawesi Selatan Natuna dan Kalimantan Barat 11 11
CLUSTER I (PAPUA) Sorong Frequency : 2 x 2 weeks Travel : 700 km Frequency : 2 x 2 weeks Travel : 1,600 km Jayapura Total Pembangkit : 11 (250 MW) Gas Demand : 50 MMSCFD Isotank : 90 Iso/ 2 weeks Jayapura Sorong Total Pembangkit : 9 (200 MW) Gas Demand : 46 MMSCFD Isotank : 144 Iso/ 2 weeks Total Distance : 2,200 km Frequency : 1 x 2 weeks Travel : 1,000 km Timika Timika Pembangkit : 11 (180 MW) Gas Demand : 41 MMSCFD Isotank : 180 Iso/ 2 weeks Frequency : 1 x 2 weeks Travel : 1,600 km Pembangkit 31 Lokasi FSRU/FSU/FRU 3 Lokasi Land Based Regas 8 Lokasi Iso Tank Regas System 8 Lokasi Rencana Pembangkit Kebutuhan Gas 630 MW 138 MMSCFD FSU Liquefaction Plant Secondary Hub/Land based Storage Smelter Land based Regas Terminal LNG Iso tank Regas System FSRU PLTGU/MGU PLTG/MG MPP 12 Small Vessel Route 12 Isotank Barge Route
CLUSTER II (MALUKU) Manado Pembangkit : 3 (450 MW) Gas Demand : 46 MMSCFD Isotank : N/A Manado Maba Pembangkit : 12 (225 MW) Gas Demand : 147 MMSCFD Smelter : 1 Plant (100 MMSCFD) Isotank : 198 EA / 2 weeks Maba Frequency : 1 x 2 weeks Travel : 580 km Frequency : 1 x 2 weeks Travel : 1, 000km Ambon Pembangkit : 9 Plant (200 MW) Gas Demand : 32 MMSCFD Isotank : 255 EA / 2 weeks Ambon Pembangkit 24 Location FSRU/FSU/FRU 3 Location Land Based Regas 5 Location Iso Tank Regas System 10 Location Rencana Pembangkit Kebutuhan Gas Kebutuhan Gas Smelter 875 MW 130 MMSCFD 100 MMSCFD Liquefaction Plant Secondary Hub/Land based Storage Smelter Land based Regas Terminal LNG Iso tank Regas System FSRU PLTGU/MGU PLTG/MG MPP 13 Small Vessel Route 13 Isotank Barge Route
CLUSTER III (NUSA TENGGARA) Makassar Pembangkit : 2 (900 MW) Gas Demand : 36 MMSCFD Isotank : N/A Pomala Frequency : 2 x 2 weeks Travel : 620 km Makassar Pomala Pembangkit : 8 (145 MW) Gas Demand : 34 MMSCFD Smelter : 1 Plant (100 MMSCFD) Isotank : 126 Iso/ 2 weeks Lombok Lombok Pembangkit : 10 (490 MW) Gas Demand : 79.5 MMSCFD Isotank : N/A Frequency : 4 x 2 weeks Travel : 1,400 km Frequency : 2 x 2 weeks Travel : 750 km Kupang Kupang Pembangkit : 10 (215 MW) Gas Demand : 34 MMSCFD Isotank : 162 Iso/ 2 weeks Pembangkit 30 Location FSRU/FSU/FRU 4 Location Land Based Regas 12 Location Iso Tank Regas System 7 Location Rencana Pembangkit Kebutuhan Gas Kebutuhan Gas Smelter 1,750 MW 183 MMSCFD 100 MMSCFD Liquefaction Plant Secondary Hub/Land based Storage Smelter Land based Regas Terminal LNG Iso tank Regas System FSRU PLTGU/MGU PLTG/MG MPP 14 Small Vessel Route 14 Isotank Barge Route
CLUSTER IV (NATUNA) Frequency : 1 x 2 weeks Travel : 475 km Pontianak Pontianak Pembangkit : 5 (495 MW) Gas Demand : 49 MMSCFD Pembangkit 5 Location FSRU/FSU/FRU 1 Location Land Based Regas 1 Location Iso Tank Regas System - Location Rencana Pembangkit Kebutuhan Gas 495 MW 49 MMSCFD Liquefaction Plant Secondary Hub/Land based Storage Smelter Land based Regas Terminal LNG Iso tank Regas System FSRU PLTGU/MGU PLTG/MG MPP 15 Small Vessel Route 15 Isotank Barge Route
LNG for Marine Transportation Based on Indonesian Regulation* (referring to Marine Safety Committee 95, International Marine Organization): Sulphur Content for marine fuel must not exceed 3,5% m/m** before January 1 st 2020 and 0,5% m/m after January 1 st 2020 LNG Fueled Ship Existing Ships in Indonesia Passenger Ship 535 Cargo Ship 20,346 Fishing Ship 16,028 Total 36,909 Existing Ports in Indonesia Commercial Ports 112 Non-Commercial Ports 1,129 Special Purpose Terminals 1,045 Total 2,289 LNG for Marine Potential Commercial Ports Commercial Shipping Route Pioneer Shipping Route *) Transportation Ministerial Regulation No. 29 / 2014 about Maritime Environment Pollution Prevention **) m/m: microgram/mililiter 16 16 16
GAS INFRASTRUCTURE ROADMAP 2016 2030 *) No. URAIAN Period I Period II Period III Existing 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 Open Access 3,665 6,153 6,153 6,215 6,776 7,390 9,604 12,580 Upstream Dedicated 4,110 4,123 4,123 4,123 4,123 4,123 4,123 4,123 1 Pipeline [KM] Downstream Dedicated 4,213.54 9,177 9,211 9,431 11,546 11,546 13,480 13,584 Own Use 46 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 2 Liquefaction [UNIT] 3 4 Regasification [UNIT] CNG Application [UNIT] Large Plant 2 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 Mini Plant 0 3 5 7 7 9 10 12 FSRU 2 2 5 9 10 11 11 12 Land based 1 17 24 46 62 64 66 68 Inland 14 68 72 72 106 108 108 161 Marine 2 4 6 9 12 15 20 30 5 6 GAS FUELING STATIONS [UNITS] Distribution Network Area [AREA] CNG 84 136 163 189 210 289 800 1,300 LNG 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 12 LGV 27 27 77 80 100 120 200 400 0 8 12 16 20 25 75 150 7 City Gas [CONNECTION] 197K 326K 608K 924 million 1.308 million 1.5 million 3 million 5 million 8 LPG Plant [MTPA] 4,594 4,754 4,754 4,755 4,755 4,755 6 7 9 LPG Storage [MT] 486K 500K 510K 492K 530K 540K 620,000 800,000 *) cumulative total 17 17
Closing Remarks Supply & demand gap for natural gas will start in 2019 in which Indonesia will start importing gas. Until 2025, there will be surplus & deficit of LNG Cargo. This calls for a strategy to manage supply and demand of LNG. The gas infrastructure roadmap until 2030 needs US$ 48.2 billion of investment. Virtual pipeline will supply gas using shipping routes in 4 clusters, in which key components for successful virtual pipeline implementation: State Owned Enterprise, PLN, experienced companies, & local content. Current challenge: formulating gas prices to stimulate economic growth. Acceleration of regulatory reform is currently under progress to increase investment attractiveness, simplify permitting processes & promote safety. 18 18
www.migas.esdm.go.id 19 19