PERTEMUAN 4 Proses Perencanaan (lanjutan) TUJUAN INSTRUKSIONAL KHUSUS Mahasiswa dapat memahami proses pengambilan keputusan yang baik dan benar sebagai bagian dari perencanaan dalam organisasi Sub Pokok Bahasan : - Proses dan Peluang Menemukan Masalah - Sifat Pembuatan Keputusan Manajerial - Model Rasional Pembuatan Keputusan Oleh : Sri Suhandiah DECISION MAKING PROCESS Decision-making Decision Making a choice from two or more alternatives Decision-making process A set of eight steps that includes identifying a problem, selecting a solution, and evaluating the effectiveness of the solution Problem A discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs Decision criteria Factors that are relevant in a decision 1
Masalah dapat diketahui dari Decision Making Process Pengalaman masa lalu Ketidaksesuaian dengan rencana Dari orang lain Prestasi pesaing Step 1: Identifying a Problem Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria Step 4: Developing Alternatives Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives Step 6: Selecting an Alternative Step 7: Implementing the Alternative Step 8: Evaluating Decision Effectiveness Step 1 : Identifying a Problem Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria Problem Perbedaan antara dan yang sudah ada. Untuk mengidentifikasi masalah, manajer harus mengenali dan memahami masalah tersebut Characteristics of problems: Suatu masalah menjadi masalah ketika seorang manajer menjadi sadar akan hal itu. Ada tekanan untuk memecahkan masalah. Manajer harus memiliki kewenangan, informasi, maupun sumber daya yang dibutuhkan untuk memecahkan masalah Biaya yang akan dikeluarkan (investasi yang dibutuhkan) Adanya risiko (kemungkinan kegagalan) Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria Kriteria keputusan itu tidak sama pentingnya: Menetapkan bobot untuk setiap item menempatkan item dalam urutan prioritas yang benar pentingnya 2
Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision Criteria Step 4: Developing Alternatives Identifying viable alternatives Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem. Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives Appraising each alternative s strengths and weaknesses. Each of the alternatives must now be critically analyzed by evaluating it against the criteria established in Steps 2 and 3. Contoh Step 6: Selecting an Alternative Choosing the best alternative The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen. Step 7: Implementing the Alternative The selected alternative must be implemented by effectively communicating the decision to the individuals who will be affected by it and winning their commitment to the decision. Step 8: Evaluating Decision Effectiveness This last step in the decision-making process assesses the result of the decision to determine whether or not the problem has been resolved. 3
Types of Problems and Decisions Structured Problems and Programmed Decisions Unstructured Problems and Nonprogrammed Decisions Types of Problems and Decisions Structured Problems Involve goals that clear. Are familiar (have occurred before). Are easily and completely defined information about the problem is available and complete. Programmed Decision A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. Types of Programmed Decisions Policy A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.(ex. Accept all customerreturned merchandise.) Procedure A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.(ex. Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.) Rule An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.(ex. Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00) Problems and Decisions (cont d) Unstructured Problems Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Problems that will require custom-made solutions. Nonprogrammed Decisions Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring. Decisions that generate unique responses. 4
Programmed versus Nonprogrammed Decisions Decision-Making Conditions Certainty A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known (inf. Akurat, dapat diukur, dapat diandalkan) Risk A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. Uncertainty Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and gut feelings. (inf. Kurang lengkap, kondisi eksternal) Pengambilan Keputusan yg Efektif Memahami perbedaan budaya. Tahu kapan saatnya untuk berhenti. Gunakan proses pengambilan keputusan yang efektif. Characteristics of an Effective Decision-Making Process It focuses on what is important. It is logical and consistent. It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking. It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma. It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion. It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible. 5