Climate Crisis from Science to Reality and Policy: If not now then when?

Transkripsi

1 Climate Crisis from Science to Reality and Policy: If not now then when? Alan F. Koropitan 1,2 Equitable and Low-Carbon Society: Aspiration and Strategies for Southeast Asia November Center for Oceanography and Marine Technology Surya University 2. Bogor Agricultural University

2 Outline: 1. Climate change in the past 2. Role of GHGs and Carbon budget 3. What s new in IPCC AR5? 4. Adaptation strategies 5. Idea for future

3 Climate change during glacial-interglacial period Isotope reconstruction at Vostok Station, Antartic 1. Ocean role in absorbing atmospheric CO2 through biological activities 2. John Martin mentioned dust distribution in atmosphere which brought Fe and it triggered biological activity in the Southern Ocean Broecker, 2003

4 Climate change due to earth precession cycle The precession cycle control variability of solar radiation Broecker, 2003c

5 Climate change due to ocean thermohaline circulation Vicking occupied Greenland

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7 Climate change due to sun spot activities The problem is the variability of solar radiation is not enough to increase air temperature as recorded recently Broecker, 2003

8 Next: what s happen?? How to control the GHGs? (CO2, N2O, Methane, etc) Alley (2004)

9 Annual Growth Rates (decadal means) Anthropogenic CO 2 in the atmosphere May 2013: ppm : 1.3 ppm y : 1.6 ppm y : 1.5 ppm y : 1.9 ppm y -1 (Source: Global Carbon Project) Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y -1 )

10 Fate of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions ( average) 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = g = 1 billion metric tonnes = 1 gigatonne (Gt)

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12 Overview of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (van Vuuren et al., 2011)

13 Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly (IPCC, 2013)

14 observed indicators of a changing global carbon cycle: (a) atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from Mauna Loa (19 32 N, W red) and South Pole (89 59 S, W black) since 1958; (b) partial pressure of dissolved CO 2 at the ocean surface (blue curves) and in situ ph (green curves), a measure of the acidity of ocean water. Measurements are from three stations from the Atlantic (29 10 N, W dark blue/dark green; N, W blue/green) and the Pacific Oceans (22 45 N, W light blue/light green). (IPCC, 2013)

15 Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of (IPCC, 2013)

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17 Tropical cyclone frequency during Ready for unexpected cyclone??

18 Hypothesis: changing marine ecosystem due to climate change and human activities Climate change Precipitation Human activities - Settlement - Industry - Agriculture - Opening peat land Changing wind speed Ocean acidification Sea surface temperature Ocean vertical stratification Nutrient supply in upwelling region Nutrient load Changing ocean flow pattern Changing fishery resources Changing plankton community Eutrophication How to adapt? Food Security Sea level Changing fish migration Changing coastal ecosystem (mangrove, coral reef and seagrass) (Koropitan, 2013) Damage: infrastructure and settlement Saltwater intrusion (water resources problem) Coastal damage and sinking small islands, conflict in national border

19 Case Study: Marlasi, Kola Island, Aru Islands Climate change adaptation processes

20 Sensitivity: coral damage and coral bleaching - Coral damage: covered by algae due to domestic waste - Coral bleaching

21 Adaptive capacity: natural capital

22 Natural capital: - Ekosistem pesisir yang lengkap (Mangrove, Lamun dan Terumbu Karang) - Desa Marlasi dilindungi oleh pulau-pulau kecil yang ditumbuhi oleh mangrove sehingga mampu melindungi dari cuaca ekstrim, gelombang tinggi serta ancaman abrasi. Technology and infrastructure capital: - Jaringan telekomunikasi (BTS): untuk akses informasi iklim bagi nelayan/masyarakat Desa Marlasi (SMS Gateway BMKG), akses informasi penangkapan dan budidaya (SMS Gateway BPSDM KKP) - Pelabuhan: akses transportasi untuk kebutuhan pangan dan energi Social capital: - Kearifan lokal seperti sashi serta perjanjian adat untuk batas laut (termasuk wilayah penangkapan), namun dewan adat perlu diperkuan peranannya karena akhir-akhir ini semakin ditinggalkan. - Pendidikan formal: perlu ada pengintegrasian pemahaman lokal, khususnya fungsi ekologis ekosistem pesisir, dalam kurikulum pendidikan dasar, menengah dan atas. - Pendidikan non-formal: sekolah lapang yang dapat menjangkau masyarakat luas, seperti nelayan, pegawai kelurahan dan kecamatan serta guru - Usulan Peraturan Desa (Perdes) yang mengatur dan melindungi ekosistem pesisir.

23 Key parameters for climate change vulnerability in Kola Island and adaptation Parameter Impact Adaptation Kenaikan Suhu Cuaca ekstrim lokal Memperkuat modal alami Permukaan Laut (curah hujan, badai, (penanaman kembali gelombang) mangrove yang dikonversi), akses informasi dan infrastruktur (transportasi, energi dan listrik) Kenaikan tingkat curah Suplai organik ke laut Memperkuat modal sosial hujan meningkat, kematian (dewan adat), perbaikan karang MCK Pengasaman laut Perusakan karang jangka Memperkuat modal sosial panjang (sashi dan pengelolaan perikanan)

24 Iterative processes for climate change adaptation

25 Indonesian Government Policy 1. Develop climate resilient village (coastal and small islands) 2. Geothermal 3. Bioenergy based on local resources (biofuel, bioethanol, etc) 4. Mini and micro-hydro energy (water, ocean current)

26 Idea for future scheme: Intellectual Property rights (IPr) in clean and renewable energy should be open for all community Clean and renewable energy Climate fund Institution/s Research fund Inventors Pay Intellectual Property rights Community