Dampak El Niño dan Bencana Asap terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia

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1 Dampak El Niño dan Bencana Asap terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia Faisal Basri 5 November

2 The Numbers: Indonesia s Haze Fires raged on peatlands on the outskirts of Palangkaraya, Indonesia, on November 1, PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES The Wall Street Journal

3 Don t underestimate the impact of El Niño The latest forecast released on August 13, 2015 by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) s Climate Prediction Center, this year's El Niño is "significant and strengthening." El Niño is a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, mainly along the Equator, which indicates waters that are warmer than normal. These warmer waters are normally confined to the western Pacific by winds that blow from east to west, pushing the warmer water toward Indonesia and Australia. More rain in North and South America comes at the expense of normally rainy Southern Asia and Australia, which become abnormally dry and experience droughts. Source:

4 Direct economic costs Businesses take heat from haze in Indonesia: the economic cost of the fires will likely run into billions of dollars. Producers of palm oil, rubber and paper are bracing for a financial hit from months of fires and choking haze smothering Indonesia. The biggest outbreak of fires since 1997 has devastated 3 million hectares of land and polluted the air, damaging agricultural regions. Source:

5 Dampak terhadap perusahaan penerbangan dan mobilitas manusia dan barang Selama triwulan III (Juli-September), sekitar penerbangan berjadwal mengalami pembatalan: Garuda sekitar penerbangan, Citilink sekitar 600 penerbangan, dan lainnya sekitar 500 penerbangan. Perjalanan bisnis ke Sumatera dan Kalimantan anjlok, berdampak terhadap berbagai sektor, misalnya terutama hotel dan restoran. Hampir tidak ada sektor yang terbebas dari dampak negatif bencana asap. Pada gilirannya merembet ke seantero negeri, bahkan ke negara-negara tetanga.

6 Economic growth by island: Kalimantan and Sumatera suffered the most 2014: 4.7 Q1-15: 3.5 Q2-15: 2.8 Share = 22.3% 2014: 3.2 Q1-15: 1.1 Q2-15: 1.5 Share = 8.2% 2014: 6.9 Q1-15: 7.3 Q2-15: 8.6 Share = 5.9% 2014: 4.3 Q1-15: 3.7 Q2-15: 10.2 Share = 2.2% 2014: 5.6 Q1-15: 5.2 Q2-15: 5.1 Share = 58.4% 2014: 5.9 Q1-15: 8.9 Q2-15: 8.9 Share = 3.0%

7 US$ billions Trade deficit: food products Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

8 Ekspor sudah empat tahun terus merosot. Bencana asap membuat kian terpuruk Description Billion US$ * * Total export Non-oil and gas Oil and gas Total import Non-oil and gas Oil and gas Surplus (Deficit) 26.1 (-1.6) (-4.1) (-1.9) 7.2 Non-oil and gas Oil and gas 0.8 (-5.6) (-12.6) (-13.1) -5.0 * January-September. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. Trade account Growth (yoy)

9 Sembilan komoditas primer sumbang hampir separuh ekspor Indonesia Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

10 Kian runyam dengan ancaman boikot 12 Products To Boycott Because You Are A Haze- Hating Singaporean ( Many will boycott products from haze-causing firms: Poll ( To resolve haze woes, boycott palm oil products ( The Haze: Time to Boycott Indonesia and all it's Products (

11 Thousand tons Impor beras bakal meroket 3,000 2,751 2,500 2,000 1,805 1,810 1,500 1,356 1,429 1,407 1,500 1, * January-August. ** Prediction. Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and prediction

Harga beras merangkak naik Growth rate (y-o-y), 2015 Jul Aug Sep Premium 8.71 9.57 13.

12 Harga beras merangkak naik Growth rate (y-o-y), 2015 Jul Aug Sep Premium Medium Low Retail Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

13 Kenaikan harga beras sangat sensitif terhadap peningkatan jumlah penduduk miskin Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

14 Percent of population Jumlah penduduk miskin sudah naik sebelum bencana asap. Per Maret 215 = juta (11.22%) * 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015** Trendline-polynomial * March and September average ** March Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.

15 Global food security index, Weighted total of all category scores (0-100 where 100 = most favourable) Rank Country United States Singapore Germany France United Kingdom Israel Japan South Korea Malaysia Brazil South Africa China Russia Thailand Vietnam India Philippines Indonesia Congo (Dem. Rep.) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Global Food Security Index Score

16 Ke depan. Manusia tidak bisa melawan alam. Cara menyikapinya yang bisa mengurangi bencana kemanusiaan. Pembaruan hukum atau penguatan institusi sebagai basis penyusunan kebijakan public yang proper. Peranan teknologi Mitigasi bencana

17 Terima Kasih Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri Blog: faisalbasri01.wordpress.com

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