Lampiran 1. Produktivitas Padi, Luas Panen dan Produksi Padi di Kabupaten Deli Serdang, 2004-2010 Tahun Semester Produktivitas Padi (ton/ha) Luas Panen (ha) Produksi Padi (ton) 2004 1 4.585 40.187 184257.4 2 4.611 32.554 150106.5 2005 1 5.129 40.290 206647.4 2 5.173 29.600 153120.8 2006 1 4.988 39.447 196761.6 2 5.028 37.441 188253.3 2007 1 5.152 36.485 187970.7 2 5.211 37.745 196689.2 2008 1 5.206 36.062 187738.8 2 5.209 37.307 194332.2 2009 1 5.197 35.680 185429 2 5.204 38.279 199203.9 2010 1 5.193 40.815 211952.3 2 5.224 43.767 228638.8
Lampiran 2. Harga Gabah, Luas Panen, Upah Tenaga Kerja dan Penggunaan Pupuk Urea Tahun Semester Harga Riil GKP (Rp/kg) Luas Panen (Ha) Upah TK (Rp/HOK) Penggunaan Urea (kg/ha) 2004 1 1560 40187 27000 200 2 1555 32554 27500 200 2005 1 1630 40290 27500 200 2 1615 29600 28000 200 2006 1 1925 39447 28500 210 2 1925 37441 28500 210 2007 1 2825 36485 30000 210 2 2850 37745 30000 212 2008 1 2720 36062 32500 215 2 2750 37307 32500 215 2009 1 2775 35680 32500 215 2 2800 38279 32500 220 2010 1 2950 40815 35000 220 2 3100 43767 35000 220
Lampiran 3. Produksi Padi, Faktor Konversi dan Produksi Beras Tahun Semester Produksi Padi (ton) Faktor Konversi Produksi Beras (ton) 2004 1 184257.4 0.65 119,767.31 2 150106.5 0.65 97,569.22 2005 1 206647.4 0.65 134,320.82 2 153120.8 0.65 99,528.52 2006 1 196761.6 0.65 127,895.06 2 188253.3 0.65 122,364.68 2007 1 187970.7 0.65 122,180.97 2 196689.2 0.65 127,847.98 2008 1 187738.8 0.65 122,030.20 2 194332.2 0.65 126,315.91 2009 1 185429 0.65 120,528.82 2 199203.9 0.65 129,482.55 2010 1 211952.3 0.65 137,768.99 2 228638.8 0.65 148,615.23
Lampiran 4. Luas Areal Panen Padi Sawah dan Variabel yang Mempengaruhi Tahun Semester Luas Panen (Ha) Luas Irigasi (Ha) Harga Riil GKP (Rp/kg) Harga Riil Urea (Rp/kg) Curah Hujan (mm) 2004 1 40187 11751 1560 1600 762 2 32554 9519 1555 1627 1363 2005 1 40290 11817 1630 1655 507 2 29600 8681 1615 1670 1572 2006 1 39447 10595 1925 1850 1208 2 37441 10057 1925 1865 1466 2007 1 36485 9578 2825 1865 859 2 37745 12008 2850 1865 1873 2008 1 36062 10813 2720 1890 525 2 37307 13220 2750 1920 1588 2009 1 35680 10579 2775 1920 888 2 38279 15496 2800 1920 1496 2010 1 40815 15662 2950 2000 536 2 43767 17475 3100 2100 1069
Lampiran 5. Konsumsi Beras dan Variabel yang Mempengaruhi Tahun Semester Konsumsi Beras Harga Riil Beras (Rp/kg) PDRB (Rp. Juta) Jumlah Penduduk (jiwa) 2004 1 80,010.59 4,700 5,280,582.66 1,515,352 2 81,295.05 4,750 5,293,978.91 1,539,679 2005 1 82,387.96 4,850 5,527,147.32 1,560,378 2 83,540.85 5,000 5,537,780.82 1,582,213 2006 1 84,866.28 5,150 5,792,679.67 1,607,316 2 86,281.27 5,400 5,805,655.17 1,634,115 2007 1 87,624.40 4,650 6,125,483.23 1,659,553 2 89,040.12 5,580 6,138,545.98 1,686,366 2008 1 90,407.75 6,000 6,490,556.65 1,712,268 2 91,789.16 6,500 6,503,572.90 1,738,431 2009 1 92,499.95 6,850 6,844,575.07 1,751,893 2 93,670.84 7,000 6,853,484.57 1,774,069 2010 1 94,070.54 7,000 7,256,468.03 1,781,639 2 94,472.03 7,200 7,260,261.53 1,789,243 Perhitungan PDRB per semester dihitung berdasarkan metode interpolasi linier yang dikembangkan oleh Insukrindo (1993) sebagai berikut: Y t1 = ¼ {Y t 4,5/12[Y t Y t-1 ]} Yt2 = ¼ {Y t 1,5/12[Y t Y t-1 ]} Yt3 = ¼ {Y t 1,5/12[Y t Y t-1 ]} Yt4 = ¼ {Y t 4,5/12[Y t Y t-1 ]} PDRB semester I adalah hasil interpolasi Yt1 + Y t2, sedangkan PDRB semester II adalah PDRB satu tahun dikurang PDRB semester I (Yt (Y t1 + Y t2 ))
Lampiran 6. Analisis Estimasi 1. Luas Areal Panen Padi Dependent Variable: LLAP Date: 12/30/11 Time: 06:13 Sample: 2004S1 2010S2 Included observations: 14 LLAI 0.336107 0.114589 2.933156 0.0167 LHG -0.152665 0.158815-0.961277 0.3615 LHPU 0.501857 0.561599 0.893621 0.3948 LCH -0.062798 0.041985-1.495715 0.1689 C 5.225478 2.945502 1.774054 0.1098 R-squared 0.682480 Mean dependent var 10.52902 Adjusted R-squared 0.541361 S.D. dependent var 0.097919 S.E. of regression 0.066314 Akaike info criterion -2.316385 Sum squared resid 0.039578 Schwarz criterion -2.088150 Log likelihood 21.21469 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.337512 F-statistic 4.836177 Durbin-Watson stat 2.203380 Prob(F-statistic) 0.023318 Uji Asumsi Klasik a) Normalitas
5 4 3 2 1 Series: Residuals Sample 2004S1 2010S2 Observations 14 Mean -1.39e-15 Median -0.003066 Maximum 0.066931 Minimum -0.112181 Std. Dev. 0.055176 Skewness -0.361945 Kurtosis 2.180739 Jarque-Bera 0.697203 Probability 0.705674 0-0.125-0.100-0.075-0.050-0.025 0.000 0.025 0.050 0.075 b) Autokorelasi Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 0.440778 Prob. F(2,7) 0.6602 Obs*R-squared 1.565906 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.4571 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Date: 12/30/11 Time: 06:47 Sample: 2004S1 2010S2 Included observations: 14 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. LLAI -0.006643 0.144505-0.045971 0.9646 LHG -0.112761 0.285864-0.394456 0.7050 LHPU 0.381042 0.942154 0.404437 0.6980 LCH 0.011239 0.046461 0.241906 0.8158 C -2.008754 5.318534-0.377690 0.7169 RESID(-1) -0.015086 0.565455-0.026680 0.9795
RESID(-2) 0.446947 0.590186 0.757298 0.4736 R-squared 0.111850 Mean dependent var -1.39E-15 Adjusted R-squared -0.649421 S.D. dependent var 0.055176 S.E. of regression 0.070863 Akaike info criterion -2.149286 Sum squared resid 0.035151 Schwarz criterion -1.829757 Log likelihood 22.04500 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.178864 F-statistic 0.146926 Durbin-Watson stat 1.902811 Prob(F-statistic) 0.983754
c) Heteroskedastisitas Heteroskedasticity Test: Glejser F-statistic 1.251610 Prob. F(4,9) 0.3565 Obs*R-squared 5.004137 Prob. Chi-Square(4) 0.2869 Scaled explained SS 2.253297 Prob. Chi-Square(4) 0.6893 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: ARESID Date: 12/30/11 Time: 06:48 Sample: 2004S1 2010S2 Included observations: 14 C 1.200593 1.191200 1.007885 0.3398 LLAI -0.043421 0.046341-0.936984 0.3732 LHG 0.001528 0.064227 0.023784 0.9815 LHPU -0.109968 0.227118-0.484190 0.6398 LCH 0.009593 0.016979 0.565005 0.5859 R-squared 0.357438 Mean dependent var 0.045907 Adjusted R-squared 0.071855 S.D. dependent var 0.027837 S.E. of regression 0.026818 Akaike info criterion -4.127021 Sum squared resid 0.006473 Schwarz criterion -3.898786 Log likelihood 33.88914 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.148148 F-statistic 1.251610 Durbin-Watson stat 1.843978 Prob(F-statistic) 0.356453
2. Konsumsi Beras Dependent Variable: LKB Date: 01/12/12 Time: 21:38 Sample: 2004S1 2010S2 Included observations: 14 LHB 0.158332 0.071833 2.204165 0.0497 LPDPT 0.533862 0.216341 2.467687 0.0312 C 1.940516 2.727592 0.711439 0.4916 R-squared 0.907223 Mean dependent var 11.38354 Adjusted R-squared 0.890354 S.D. dependent var 0.057239 S.E. of regression 0.018953 Akaike info criterion -4.906250 Sum squared resid 0.003952 Schwarz criterion -4.769309 Log likelihood 37.34375 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.918926 F-statistic 53.78189 Durbin-Watson stat 0.807945 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000002 Uji Asumsi Klasik a) Normalitas 5 4 3 2 1 Series: Residuals Sample 2004S1 2010S2 Observations 14 Mean 3.50e-16 Median -0.002627 Maximum 0.030497 Minimum -0.031389 Std. Dev. 0.017435 Skewness 0.124230 Kurtosis 2.252965 Jarque-Bera 0.361546 Probability 0.834625 0-0.04-0.03-0.02-0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04
b) Autokorelasi Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 2.124010 Prob. F(2,9) 0.1756 Obs*R-squared 4.489144 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1060 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Date: 01/12/12 Time: 21:44 Sample: 2004S1 2010S2 Included observations: 14 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. LHB -0.033135 0.080987-0.409135 0.6920 LPDPT 0.006448 0.226210 0.028504 0.9779 C 0.187659 2.801555 0.066984 0.9481 RESID(-1) 0.366055 0.341707 1.071254 0.3119 RESID(-2) 0.431595 0.414454 1.041356 0.3249 R-squared 0.320653 Mean dependent var 3.50E-16 Adjusted R-squared 0.018721 S.D. dependent var 0.017435 S.E. of regression 0.017271 Akaike info criterion -5.007159 Sum squared resid 0.002684 Schwarz criterion -4.778924 Log likelihood 40.05011 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.028286 F-statistic 1.062005 Durbin-Watson stat 1.405743 Prob(F-statistic) 0.428869
c) Heteroskedastisitas Heteroskedasticity Test: Glejser F-statistic 1.734296 Prob. F(2,11) 0.2215 Obs*R-squared 3.356256 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1867 Scaled explained SS 2.075379 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.3543 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: ARESID Date: 01/12/12 Time: 21:45 Sample: 2004S1 2010S2 Included observations: 14 C -1.764663 1.271839-1.387489 0.1928 LHB -0.061516 0.033495-1.836587 0.0934 LPDPT 0.152783 0.100877 1.514552 0.1581 R-squared 0.239733 Mean dependent var 0.014196 Adjusted R-squared 0.101502 S.D. dependent var 0.009324 S.E. of regression 0.008838 Akaike info criterion -6.432161 Sum squared resid 0.000859 Schwarz criterion -6.295220 Log likelihood 48.02512 Hannan-Quinn criter. -6.444837 F-statistic 1.734296 Durbin-Watson stat 1.817199 Prob(F-statistic) 0.221470
3. Harga Eceran Beras Dependent Variable: LOGHB Date: 12/30/11 Time: 05:55 Sample (adjusted): 2004S2 2010S2 Included observations: 13 after adjustments LOGKB 1.881987 0.842850 2.232887 0.0524 LLOGQB -0.024654 0.214425-0.114979 0.9110 LLOGHB 0.379041 0.269875 1.404508 0.1937 C -15.75852 7.248801-2.173949 0.0577 R-squared 0.881227 Mean dependent var 8.660196 Adjusted R-squared 0.841636 S.D. dependent var 0.163909 S.E. of regression 0.065228 Akaike info criterion -2.374208 Sum squared resid 0.038292 Schwarz criterion -2.200377 Log likelihood 19.43235 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.409938 F-statistic 22.25829 Durbin-Watson stat 2.239030 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000169 Uji Asumsi Klasik a) Normalitas
12 10 8 6 4 2 Series: Residuals Sample 2004S2 2010S2 Observations 13 Mean 5.46e-16 Median 0.016037 Maximum 0.031856 Minimum -0.184126 Std. Dev. 0.056489 Skewness -2.950889 Kurtosis 10.21655 Jarque-Bera 47.07603 Probability 0.000000 0-0.20-0.15-0.10-0.05 0.00 0.05 b) Autokorelasi Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 0.320649 Prob. F(2,7) 0.7358 Obs*R-squared 1.091028 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.5795 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Date: 12/30/11 Time: 06:54 Sample: 2004S2 2010S2 Included observations: 13 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. LOGKB -1.340545 1.960372-0.683822 0.5161 LLOGQB -0.050509 0.242144-0.208590 0.8407 LLOGHB 0.495315 0.703478 0.704094 0.5041 C 11.58689 16.94877 0.683642 0.5162 RESID(-1) -0.683245 0.862252-0.792396 0.4541
RESID(-2) -0.204117 0.488224-0.418082 0.6884 R-squared 0.083925 Mean dependent var 5.46E-16 Adjusted R-squared -0.570414 S.D. dependent var 0.056489 S.E. of regression 0.070790 Akaike info criterion -2.154173 Sum squared resid 0.035078 Schwarz criterion -1.893427 Log likelihood 20.00212 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.207768 F-statistic 0.128260 Durbin-Watson stat 2.102446 Prob(F-statistic) 0.980992
c) Heteroskedastisitas Heteroskedasticity Test: Glejser F-statistic 0.080061 Prob. F(3,9) 0.9692 Obs*R-squared 0.337915 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.9527 Scaled explained SS 0.457484 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.9281 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: ARESID Date: 12/30/11 Time: 06:54 Sample: 2004S2 2010S2 Included observations: 13 C 0.413215 6.030623 0.068519 0.9469 LOGKB -0.080206 0.701207-0.114383 0.9114 LLOGQB 0.065339 0.178390 0.366272 0.7226 LLOGHB -0.027287 0.224522-0.121532 0.9059 R-squared 0.025993 Mean dependent var 0.029196 Adjusted R-squared -0.298675 S.D. dependent var 0.047619 S.E. of regression 0.054266 Akaike info criterion -2.742179 Sum squared resid 0.026503 Schwarz criterion -2.568349 Log likelihood 21.82417 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.777909 F-statistic 0.080061 Durbin-Watson stat 2.236559 Prob(F-statistic) 0.969211