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I. Hasil Regresi Data LAMPIRAN I HASIL REGRESI DAN UJI ASUMSI KLASIK PENDUGAAN PARAMETER MODEL SIMULTAN a. Persamaan Konsumsi Dependent Variable: K Date: 10/17/08 Time: 04:56 Sample: 1983 2007 Included observations: 25 Instrument list: DAU DBH PAD C 1961777. 1174027. 1.670982 0.1083 Y 0.774563 0.043714 17.71904 0.0000 R-squared 0.936825 Mean dependent var 16919744 Adjusted R-squared 0.934078 S.D. dependent var 9596217. S.E. of regression 2463847. Sum squared resid 1.40E+14 F-statistic 313.9643 Durbin-Watson stat 2.095504 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 K = 1961777 + 0.774563 *Y b. Persamaan Investasi Dependent Variable: I Date: 01/22/09 Time: 08:57 Sample: 1983 2007 Included observations: 25 Instrument list: DAU DBH PAD C 2097237. 2974677. 0.705030 0.4882 RATE -44313.93 296926.7-0.149242 0.8827 Y 0.021110 0.066467 0.317597 0.7538 R-squared 0.086252 Mean dependent var 2377570. Adjusted R-squared 0.003184 S.D. dependent var 2752189. S.E. of regression 2747804. Sum squared resid 1.66E+14 F-statistic 0.174338 Durbin-Watson stat 1.881523 Prob(F-statistic) 0.841162 I = 2097237 44313.93*rate + 0.02111*Y
c. Persamaan Aktivitas Perdagangan Dependent Variable: NX Date: 10/10/08 Time: 08:44 Sample: 1983 2007 Included observations: 25 Instrument list: DAU DBH PAD C 588758.8 462037.0 1.274268 0.2153 Y 0.162070 0.017203 9.420817 0.0000 R-squared 0.836380 Mean dependent var 3218901. Adjusted R-squared 0.845541 S.D. dependent var 1307736. S.E. of regression 513956.6 Sum squared resid 6.08E+12 F-statistic 98.74215 Durbin-Watson stat 1.123413 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 NX = 1010078 + 0.090611*Y II. Uji Asumsi Klasik 1. Uji Multikolinearitas (Tidak terjadi multiko) K I DAU DBH PAD NX RATE K 1.000000 0.186971 0.543739 0.361470 0.637985 0.639991-0.265511 I 0.186971 1.000000 0.120254 0.070336 0.096881 0.171793-0.301244 DAU 0.543739 0.120254 1.000000 0.749470 0.751736 0.769532-0.283289 DBH 0.361470 0.070336 0.749470 1.000000 0.680156 0.569350-0.198344 PAD 0.637985 0.096881 0.751736 0.680156 1.000000 0.720986-0.120489 NX 0.639991 0.171793 0.769532 0.569350 0.720986 1.000000-0.346501 RATE -0.265511-0.301244-0.283289-0.198344-0.120489-0.346501 1.000000 2. Uji Heterokedastisitas a. Persamaan Konsumsi (K) (Data tidak heterokedastisitas) ARCH Test: F-statistic 2.401774 Probability 0.135465 Obs*R-squared 2.362229 Probability 0.124304 Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Date: 12/30/08 Time: 11:50 Sample (adjusted): 1984 2007 Included observations: 24 after adjustments C 1.04E+10 1.20E+10 0.872589 0.3923 RESID^2(-1) 0.787318 0.508024 1.549766 0.1355 R-squared 0.098426 Mean dependent var 2.43E+10 Adjusted R-squared 0.057446 S.D. dependent var 4.00E+10 S.E. of regression 3.88E+10 Akaike info criterion 51.68054 Sum squared resid 3.31E+22 Schwarz criterion 51.77871 Log likelihood -618.1665 F-statistic 2.401774 Durbin-Watson stat 1.278649 Prob(F-statistic) 0.135465 b. Persamaan Investasi (I) (Data tidak heterokedastisitas) White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic 0.343992 Probability 0.845015 Obs*R-squared 1.609246 Probability 0.807129 Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Date: 01/12/09 Time: 09:40 Sample: 1983 2007 Included observations: 25 C -7.76E+12 1.85E+13-0.419691 0.6792 Y 1338579. 1245600. 1.074646 0.2953 Y^2-0.022883 0.020964-1.091513 0.2880 RATE -2.02E+10 5.42E+11-0.037241 0.9707 RATE^2-1.23E+10 3.35E+10-0.366496 0.7178 R-squared 0.064370 Mean dependent var 6.64E+12 Adjusted R-squared -0.122756 S.D. dependent var 1.42E+13 S.E. of regression 1.51E+13 Akaike info criterion 63.70556 Sum squared resid 4.56E+27 Schwarz criterion 63.94934 Log likelihood -791.3195 F-statistic 0.343992 Durbin-Watson stat 2.320821 Prob(F-statistic) 0.845015 c. Persamaan Aktivitas Perdagangan (NX) (Data tidak heterokedastisitas) ARCH Test:
F-statistic 0.451445 Probability 0.508645 Obs*R-squared 0.482583 Probability 0.487255 Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Date: 12/30/08 Time: 11:53 Sample (adjusted): 1984 2007 Included observations: 24 after adjustments C 2.13E+11 7.67E+10 2.779326 0.0109 RESID^2(-1) 0.141876 0.211158 0.671896 0.5086 R-squared 0.020108 Mean dependent var 2.47E+11 Adjusted R-squared -0.024433 S.D. dependent var 2.80E+11 S.E. of regression 2.83E+11 Akaike info criterion 55.65793 Sum squared resid 1.77E+24 Schwarz criterion 55.75610 Log likelihood -665.8952 F-statistic 0.451445 Durbin-Watson stat 1.968216 Prob(F-statistic) 0.508645 3. Uji Autokorelasi a. Persamaan Konsumsi (K) (Tidak terjadi autokorelasi) Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: Obs*R-squared 1.107485 Probability 0.292629 Dependent Variable: RESID Date: 12/30/08 Time: 12:00 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. C -30535.70 83915.03-0.363888 0.7194 Y 0.001462 0.003254 0.449271 0.6576 RESID(-1) 0.287248 0.284451 1.009832 0.3236 R-squared 0.044299 Mean dependent var 4.66E-12 Adjusted R-squared -0.042582 S.D. dependent var 160885.8 S.E. of regression 164275.5 Akaike info criterion 26.96864 Sum squared resid 5.94E+11 Schwarz criterion 27.11491
Log likelihood -334.1081 F-statistic 0.509881 Durbin-Watson stat 1.541002 Prob(F-statistic) 0.607492 b. Persamaan Investasi (I) (Tidak terjadi autokorelasi) Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: Obs*R-squared 0.044982 Probability 0.832036 Dependent Variable: RESID Date: 01/12/09 Time: 09:41 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. C 48362.40 3052078. 0.015846 0.9875 Y -0.002670 0.069342-0.038510 0.9696 RATE 2567.975 303927.4 0.008449 0.9933 RESID(-1) 0.044955 0.231061 0.194559 0.8476 R-squared 0.001799 Mean dependent var 3.54E-10 Adjusted R-squared -0.140801 S.D. dependent var 2630823. S.E. of regression 2809936. Akaike info criterion 32.68087 Sum squared resid 1.66E+14 Schwarz criterion 32.87589 Log likelihood -404.5109 F-statistic 0.012618 Durbin-Watson stat 2.006887 Prob(F-statistic) 0.997998 c. Persamaan Aktivitas Perdagangan (NX) (Tidak terjadi autokorelasi) Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: Obs*R-squared 4.221633 Probability 0.069912 Dependent Variable: RESID Date: 12/30/08 Time: 12:01 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. C -19584.62 228473.7-0.085719 0.9325 Y 0.001215 0.008519 0.142647 0.8879
RESID(-1) 0.424761 0.200909 2.114199 0.0461 R-squared 0.168865 Mean dependent var 2.61E-10 Adjusted R-squared 0.093308 S.D. dependent var 503135.3 S.E. of regression 479087.4 Akaike info criterion 29.10932 Sum squared resid 5.05E+12 Schwarz criterion 29.25559 Log likelihood -360.8665 F-statistic 2.234919 Durbin-Watson stat 1.894556 Prob(F-statistic) 0.130733
LAMPIRAN II HASIL REGRESI DAN UJI ASUMSI KLASIK PENDUGAAN PARAMETER KEMISKINAN Dependent Variable: POV Date: 01/29/09 Time: 09:43 Sample: 1983 2006 Included observations: 24 C 35897.80 141524.7 0.253651 0.8024 ABD -1.457520 1.025453-1.421343 0.1706 U 1.408253 0.618554 2.276684 0.0339 INF 3461.525 5112.420 0.677082 0.5061 R-squared 0.651291 Mean dependent var 347035.7 Adjusted R-squared 0.138984 S.D. dependent var 277821.6 S.E. of regression 257793.2 Akaike info criterion 27.90871 Sum squared resid 1.33E+12 Schwarz criterion 28.10506 Log likelihood -330.9046 F-statistic 2.237547 Durbin-Watson stat 0.921076 Prob(F-statistic) 0.015248 Persamaan Regresi : POV = 35897.8 1.45752*ABD + 1.408253*U + 3461.525*Inflasi 3. Uji Multikolinearitas (Tidak terjadi multikolinearitas) ABD U INF ABD 1.000000 0.163889 0.167613 U 0.163889 1.000000 0.068000 INF 0.167613 0.068000 1.000000 4. Uji Heterokedastisitas (Data tidak heterokedastisitas) White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic 0.815202 Probability 0.572832 Obs*R-squared 5.362385 Probability 0.498243 Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Date: 01/29/09 Time: 09:49 Sample: 1983 2006
Included observations: 24 C -2.63E+11 1.91E+11-1.378757 0.1858 ABD -644695.8 575709.4-1.119829 0.2784 ABD^2 0.973311 6.449973 0.150901 0.8818 U 1970862. 1776555. 1.109373 0.2827 U^2-3.647912 3.953769-0.922642 0.3691 INF 1.34E+10 1.24E+10 1.079278 0.2955 INF^2-2.17E+08 1.97E+08-1.101760 0.2859 R-squared 0.223433 Mean dependent var 5.54E+10 Adjusted R-squared -0.050650 S.D. dependent var 1.39E+11 S.E. of regression 1.42E+11 Akaike info criterion 54.43679 Sum squared resid 3.44E+23 Schwarz criterion 54.78039 Log likelihood -646.2415 F-statistic 0.815202 Durbin-Watson stat 0.951146 Prob(F-statistic) 0.572832 3. Uji Autokorelasi (Tidak terjadi autokorelasi) Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 3.380557 Probability 0.156692 Obs*R-squared 6.553289 Probability 0.087755 Dependent Variable: RESID Date: 01/29/09 Time: 09:55 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. C 20648.51 131533.3 0.156983 0.8770 ABD 1.515953 1.413272 1.072654 0.2976 U 0.095558 0.558390 0.171131 0.8660 INF -1073.787 4614.278-0.232710 0.8186 RESID(-1) 0.801152 0.348696 2.297566 0.0338 RESID(-2) 0.143121 0.657678 0.217616 0.8302 R-squared 0.273054 Mean dependent var 9.70E-11 Adjusted R-squared 0.071124 S.D. dependent var 240393.4 S.E. of regression 231686.8 Akaike info criterion 27.75648 Sum squared resid 9.66E+11 Schwarz criterion 28.05099 Log likelihood -327.0777 F-statistic 1.352223 Durbin-Watson stat 1.825293 Prob(F-statistic) 0.288021
LAMPIRAN VIII HASIL ANALISIS ELASTISITAS 1. Elastisitas PDRB terhadap Konsumsi 2. Elastisitas PDRB terhadap Investasi 3. Elastisitas PDRB terhadap Aktivitas Perdagangan 4. Elastisitas Penganggutan terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan 5. Elastisitas ABD terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan