Lampiran 1 Hasil Regression Model GLS FIXED EFFECT (FEM)

LAMPIRAN Lampiran 1 Hasil Regression Model GLS FIXED EFFECT (FEM) Dependent Variable: BD? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section weights) Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:56 Sample: 2010 2013 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 31 Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123 Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 2374930 502101.7 4.729979 0.0000 PD? 0.000131 0.000221 0.593043 0.5547 DAU? 0.817756 0.043293 18.88877 0.0000 DBH? 0.000255 0.000325 0.786636 0.4336 HCT? -0.000154 0.000166 0.550346 0.8180 Fixed Effects (Cross) _NIAS C -171837.6 _MANDAILINGN ATAL C -101407.1 _TAPANULISELA TAN C -94829.98 _TAPANULITENG AH C -83735.26 _TAPANULIUTAR A C -75794.98 _TOBASAMOSIR C -89918.52 _LABUHANBATU C -42643.41 _ASAHAN C -43709.01 _SIMALUNGUN C -38404.67 _KARO--C -109961.5 _DELISERDANG C 36377.45 _LANGKAT--C -32776.77 _NIASSELATAN C -76305.28 _HUMBANGHASU 2842841. 54

NDUTAN C _PAKPAKBHARA T--C -173300.2 _SAMOSIR--C -140975.5 _SERDANGBEDA GAI--C -55033.10 _BATUBARA--C -112732.5 _PALUTA--C -146209.1 _PADANGLAWAS --C -124410.1 _LABUSEL--C -118058.5 _NIASUTARA--C 242348.8 _NIASBARAT--C 90555.25 _SIBOLGA--C -161204.0 _TANJUNGBALAI --C -144033.9 _PEMATANGSIAN TAR--C -80663.66 _TEBINGTINGGI C -105055.4 _MEDAN--C 234656.3 _BINJAI--C -93385.98 _PADANGSIDIMP UAN--C -126108.6 _GUNUNGSITOLI C -193574.3 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.837531 Mean dependent var 26222912 Adjusted R-squared 0.981222 S.D. dependent var 13091070 S.E. of regression 84901.09 Sum squared resid 6.3472411 F-statistic 188.5028 Durbin-Watson stat 1.280043 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.837531 Mean dependent var 11858173 Sum squared resid 1.962512 Durbin-Watson stat 1.650102 55

Lampiran 2 Hasil Regression Model GLS RA NDOM EFFECT (REM) Dependent Variable: BD? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:57 Sample: 2010 2013 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 31 Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 7626243. 1488222. 5.124400 0.0000 PD? 0.000249 0.000779 0.320349 0.7493 DAU? 0.364733 0.127575 2.858961 0.0050 DBH? 0.001488 0.000765 1.946003 0.0540 HCT? -0.986455 0.000666-0.230569 0.5835 Random Effects (Cross) _NIAS--C -267588.9 _MANDAILINGN ATAL--C -63377.64 _TAPANULISELA TAN--C -92689.77 _TAPANULITENG AH--C -100065.0 _TAPANULIUTAR A--C -59184.61 _TOBASAMOSIR-- C -126428.7 _LABUHANBATU --C -48475.99 _ASAHAN--C 15704.55 _SIMALUNGUN-- C 89169.25 _KARO--C -153565.0 _DELISERDANG-- C 206031.6 _LANGKAT--C 95909.92 _NIASSELATAN-- C -102717.4 _HUMBANGHASU NDUTAN--C 2720661. 56

_PAKPAKBHARA T--C -290221.1 _SAMOSIR--C -190415.7 _SERDANGBEDA GAI--C -9710.769 _BATUBARA--C -116924.7 _PALUTA--C -194176.9 _PADANGLAWAS --C -181936.6 _LABUSEL--C -168134.9 _NIASUTARA--C 89987.65 _NIASBARAT--C -169048.3 _SIBOLGA--C -228913.8 _TANJUNGBALAI --C -218936.4 _PEMATANGSIAN TAR--C -85959.94 _TEBINGTINGGI-- C -169179.7 _MEDAN--C 415758.9 _BINJAI--C -105080.8 _PADANGSIDIMP UAN--C -162031.5 _GUNUNGSITOLI- -C -328459.0 Effects Specification S.D. Rho Cross-section random 475482.2 0.9249 Idiosyncratic random 135478.2 0.0751 Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.986455 Mean dependent var 1680071. Adjusted R-squared 0.052692 S.D. dependent var 166729.1 S.E. of regression 140002.0 Sum squared resid 2.314512 F-statistic 2.696494 Durbin-Watson stat 2.294726 Prob(F-statistic) 0.034094 Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.061503 Mean dependent var 11858173 Sum squared resid 2.893213 Durbin-Watson stat 0.102324 57

Lampiran 3 Uji Hausman Test Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Pool: JULI Test cross-section random effects Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob. Cross-section random 5.255495 4 0.2621 Cross-section random effects test comparisons: Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob. PD? 0.000472 0.000249 0.000000 0.3359 DAU? 0.335622 0.364733 0.001336 0.4257 DBH? 0.001600 0.001488 0.000000 0.3625 HCT? -0.000046-0.986455 0.000000 0.2080 Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: BD? Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/01/11 Time: 05:58 Sample: 2010 2013 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 31 Total pool (unbalanced) observations: 123 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 7927723. 1546083. 5.127618 0.0000 PD? 0.000472 0.000812 0.580813 0.5629 DAU? 0.335622 0.132707 2.529036 0.0132 DBH? 0.001600 0.000775 2.066215 0.0417 HCT? -4.613205 0.000672-0.068696 0.9454 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.987609 Mean dependent var 11858173 Adjusted R-squared 0.927367 S.D. dependent var 502693.3 S.E. of regression 135478.2 Akaike info criterion 26.70527 58

Sum squared resid 1.622112 Schwarz criterion 27.50548 Log likelihood -1607.374 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27.03031 F-statistic 46.81418 Durbin-Watson stat 2.284726 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Lampiran 4 Data Realisasi Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi (Milyar Rupiah) Kabupaten/Kota 2010 2011 2012 2013 Nias 23,946,293,045 18,943,904,322 30,531,670,978 44,726,140,940 Mandailing natal 11,825,857,863 27,525,847,376 29,821,669,770 47,261,409,409 Tapanuli Selatan 30,496,787,001 57,463,805,226 56,160,143,106 69,220,483,496 Tapanuli Tengah 13,371,779,335 18,209,682,593 21,136,802,117 23,210,742,292 Tapanuli Utara 15,433,009,546 36,063,155,708 34,023,120,252 37,954,419,651 Toba Samosir 11,988,553,566 14,117,728,012 16,542,682,535 19,803,160,418 Labuhan Batu 38,532,205,269 50,958,558,912 59,439,168,712 49,784,550,240 Asahan 25,982,186,358 31,844,327,602 37,894,587,647 53,691,705,753 Simalungun 45,255,604,121 42,543,353,964 61,246,499,256 97,914,775,900 Dairi 19,835,722,474 17,673,471,407 20,911,510,364 29,933,428,377 Karo 39,594,659,822 35,372,329,911 41,242,973,174 46,342,693,861 Deli Serdang 120,537,227,592 213,791,544,828 291,017,501,163 328,348,147,362 Langkat 31,357,008,434 34,540,642,904 129,242,580,780 65,521,499,189 Nias Selatan 10,276,243,224 23,030,719,094 15,592,080,806 32,087,688,050 Humbang Hasundutan 10,007,220,641 12,870,031,745 17,901,926,972 17,632,873,685 Pakpak Bharat 4,533,364,577 6,306,028,983 6,353,111,715 9,080,676,936 Samosir 11,813,219,103 14,201,578,951 17,459,630,442 26,661,345,261 Serdang Bedagai 22,093,187,209 35,894,399,483 39,274,569,799 50,371,732,819 Batubara 9,270,392,493 13,240,860,819 16,558,177,253 27,761,999,043 Padang Lawas Utara 5,317,205,097 8,728,414,451 12,798,137,843 15,804,225,377 Padang Lawas 12,262,144,676 7,628,252,033 9,881,176,851 23,140,067,441 Labuhanbatu Selatan 8,371,926,407 17,081,271,911 18,976,643,017 26,701,972,210 Labuhanbatu Utara 11,890,474,728 10,518,250,179 18,971,116,518 25,651,299,857 Nias Utara 1,905,120,946 6,655,233,082 8,990,037,382 8,857,118,964 Nias Barat 958,747,799 2,761,470,685 5,460,766,342 7,223,690,778 Silboga 15,118,409,482 21,663,389,950 26,698,353,730 29,457,629,416 59

Tanjung Balai 24,126,011,465 27,089,059,681 27,702,368,427 31,920,753,948 Pematang Siantar 25,910,942,909 44,792,749,488 49,915,366,002 61,357,963,445 Tebing Tinggi 26,272,468,555 32,738,790,020 47,330,983,758 53,199,538,064 Medan 588,941,453,691 995,072,572,141 1,147,901,461,607 1,206,169,709,147 Binjai 18,832,884,480 48,178,078,782 61,246,499,256 97,914,775,900 Padang Sidempuan 14,602,383,887 21,465,271,347 23,622,308,246 35,018,175,219 Gunung Sitoli 2,344,943,441 6,051,302,346 9,329,679,343 10,382,482,568 Lampiran 5 Data Realisasi Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera UtaraTahun 2010-2013 (Milyar Rupiah) Kabupaten/Kota 2010 2011 2012 2013 Nias 265,217,573,360 265,217,572,360 289,608,144,000 336,470,399,000 Mandailing natal 398,482,296,000 455,393,393,000 541,106,638,000 625,543,432,000 Tapanuli Selatan 334,737,772,000 375,893,846,000 454,322,254,000 517,342,688,000 Tapanuli Tengah 313,957,675,000 343,731,494,000 422,611,672,000 491,010,818,000 Tapanuli Utara 369,275,117,000 405,822,524,429 487,345,532,000 552,463,211,000 Toba Samosir 280,449,853,000 310,252,416,000 387,623,169,000 423,292,453,000 Labuhan Batu 315,309,299,000 367,737,566,342 461,644,282,000 520,457,519,000 Asahan 479,299,307,000 523,561,849,000 628,974,980,000 733,671,988,000 Simalungun 644,610,865,000 696,225,292,000 865,405,855,000 977,808,611,000 Dairi 336,864,702,000 372,373,356,825 451,176,116,000 512,477,041,000 Karo 441,302,317,000 441,566,566,000 546,294,802,000 625,822,348,000 Deli Serdang 793,141,685,000 888,557,245,000 1,100,013,616,000 1,260,755,135,000 Langkat 655,701,432,800 736,887,815,640 847,503,037,000 982,658,132,000 Nias Selatan 277,887,323,000 318,920,943,000 378,605,613,000 422,944,097,000 Humbang Hasundutan 279,893,022,000 313,431,176,000 376,847,178,000 440,919,622,000 Pakpak Bharat 167,780,345,000 198,239,174,000 232,990,274,000 273,598,951,000 Samosir 243,041,606,000 282,988,294,000 331,412,601,000 384,760,680,000 Serdang Bedagai 420,258,696,700 458,160,308,000 554,245,457,000 628,900,240,000 Batubara 385,586,034,000 385,883,017,000 452,227,480,000 517,734,102,000 Padang Lawas Utara 243,969,546,000 262,539,422,000 348,056,278,000 387,954,949,000 Padang Lawas 241,106,688,000 249,496,791,000 331,754,392,000 371,650,111,000 Labuhanbatu Selatan 249,091,013,000 266,922,749,000 334,512,284,000 400,566,653,000 60

Labuhanbatu Utara 346,404,972,000 346,684,689,000 400,601,985,000 457,714,720,000 Nias Utara 108,563,262,000 231,764,690,000 267,283,187,000 294,071,932,000 Nias Barat 63,068,373,000 193,616,447,000 227,860,916,000 251,631,634,000 Silboga 227,216,241,600 248,405,548,000 292,873,107,000 338,507,471,000 Tanjung Balai 241,921,536,000 275,525,468,000 313,729,707,000 369,246,576,000 Pematang Siantar 313,941,731,000 352,525,649,000 429,632,177,000 492,115,399,000 Tebing Tinggi 228,057,807,000 261,948,729,000 307,635,669,000 368,586,756,000 Medan 846,541,452,400 1,066,353,555,440 1,153,789,320,000 1,270,244,794,000 Binjai 293,536,658,000 336,779,454,000 416,965,216,000 477,553,537,000 Padang Sidempuan 270,129,118,000 308,014,507,000 364,923,284,000 423,251,346,000 Gunung Sitoli 95,768,225,000 251,728,688,000 305,726,000,000 356,042,987,000 Lampiran 6 Data Realisasi Dana Bagi Hasil (DBH) Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2013 (Milyar Rupiah) Kabupaten/Kota 2010 2011 2012 2013 Nias 9,127,725,000 11,547,453,198 13,474,672,964 13,934,683,321 Mandailing natal 39,988,057,088 35,651,324,849 42,074,614,263 38,094,758,481 Tapanuli Selatan 36,684,559,163 30,544,942,672 39,730,432,660 39,793,149,268 Tapanuli Tengah 30,439,386,392 25,666,732,395 35,777,117,224 29,538,847,747 Tapanuli Utara 28,011,295,221 25,788,562,258 30,387,273,913 29,306,489,918 Toba Samosir 27,499,489,860 18,543,976,862 10,546,826,257 29,934,067,111 Labuhan Batu 50,228,338,526 46,785,533,114 54,179,572,635 50,834,309,647 Asahan 61,444,328,450 54,953,826,235 57,731,318,062 65,080,516,468 Simalungun 62,942,551,678 58,432,376,141 65,185,896,461 60,525,757,122 Dairi 28,986,091,668 27,204,216,088 27,352,940,639 26,543,641,065 Karo 34,621,589,345 31,448,670,465 30,420,892,001 30,126,517,887 Deli Serdang 146,599,782,732 108,270,209,250 72,059,714,607 305,271,905,329 Langkat 137,445,206,941 137,812,564,561 156,839,383,030 169,455,342,253 Nias Selatan 25,365,467,717 26,600,297,158 28,485,970,255 25,297,106,389 Humbang Hasundutan 28,573,493,481 29,155,800,194 33,378,873,690 27,314,424,449 Pakpak Bharat 24,717,204,224 23,524,648,198 23,937,864,238 23,253,685,387 Samosir 17,876,676,542 15,653,056,028 21,542,247,952 22,829,863,294 Serdang Bedagai 54,058,531,108 48,610,349,587 52,173,934,040 45,267,322,786 61

Batubara 507,735,000 27,290,973,742 28,100,566,189 37,134,469,460 Padang Lawas Utara 30,532,402,764 30,498,573,419 30,861,970,15 29,970,451,785 Padang Lawas 34,172,459,655 27,196,358,400 36,519,005,068 40,194,093,790 Labuhanbatu Selatan 51,794,131,671 48,172,886,285 53,049,624,339 56,839,085,263 Labuhanbatu Utara 29,878,410,374 36,821,724,925 38,012,918,270 35,305,107,809 Nias Utara 272,478,401.003 11,053,337,908 14,677,083,049 12,634,625,175 Nias Barat 8,641,413,627 9,607,603,929 13,679,975,385 9,931,903,187 Silboga 21,459,790,766 19,786,320,335 21,271,435,914 20,314,797,636 Tanjung Balai 18,617,690,893 16,617,286,882 18,834,267,833 20,662,436,176 Pematang Siantar 28,893,910,180 26,289,467,326 36,446,552,650 26,225,847,040 Tebing Tinggi 25,179,049,935 19,998,085,793 24,897,504,525 22,603,350,544 Medan 374,026,589,767 274,493,581,754 197,098,179,192 174,054,636,586 Binjai 334,604,231,426 39,788,887,998 41,334,651,724 33,599,444,362 Padang Sidempuan 26,428,984,994 23,994,089,924 32,822,219,830 25,797,109,529 Gunung Sitoli 12,694,065,859 10,622,292,350 4,435,726,739 13,248,308,888 Lampiran 7 Laju Perkembangan Belanja Daerah menurut Kabupaten/Kota dalam (Miliyar Rupiah) di Provinsi Sumatera Utara pada tahun 2010-2013 Kabupaten/Kota 2010 2011 2012 2013 Nias 315,353,839,011 406,403,024,909 404,093,407,445 476,487,660,034 Mandailing natal 602,563,533,412 650,263,316,991 765,109,821,478 850,556,308,683 Tapanuli Selatan 472,067,567,732 554,348,545,417 676,023,654,714 842,846,295,842 Tapanuli Tengah 434,505,432,624 544,321,692,514 680,016,226,473 861,257,508,873 Tapanuli Utara 548,166,791,560 705,123,140,595 737,700,051,049 834,384,699,583 Toba Samosir 462,560,212,959 479,662,453,929 619,897,003,865 645,159,251,733 Labuhanbatu 599,477,429,268 632,347,460,841 760,581,998,796 827,146,775,327 Asahan 713,231,010,913 889,574,470,458 1,037,633,546,450 1,143,614,491,115 Simalungun 1,016,394,859,467 1,088,622,687,483 1,378,042,599,884 1,432,130,758,218 Dairi 487,883,816,871 535,857,675,655 492,052,242,441 694,246,838,536 Karo 628,890,802,454 675,614,384,795 750,398,279,122 901,675,564,724 Deli Serdang 1,333,248,401,822 1,654,873,747,938 1,826,070,426,059 2,034,622,488,868 Langkat 967,881,060,777 1,063,869,134,063 1,329,229,102,792 1,536,811,928,028 62

Nias Selatan 465,251,237,439 479,421,889,590 621,171,486,118 669,036,597,703 Humbang Hasundutan 393,014,475,016 432,517,402,736 511,537,853,879 605,789,787,843 Pakpak Bharat 231,573,004,143 318,568,754,148 296,781,857,912 381,852,026,957 Samosir 367,805,497,569 431,142,832,097 415,012,206,460 522,227,935,549 Serdang Bedagai 666,468,396,241 731,773,294,426 833,559,067,726 982,962,075,740 Batubara 533,854,269,993 558,737,287,208 641,952,160,816 760,743,078,670 Padang Lawas Utara 304,464,356,527 416,234,576,099 571,471,637,184 588,852,483,907 Padang Lawas 380,148,424,392 416,234,576,099 439,833,949,611 504,166,349,741 Labuhanbatu Selatan 315,584,167,118 429,131,382,169 438,876,267,201 725,242,663,998 Labuhanbatu Utara 5,022,540,281 539,133,180,282 678,113,688,299 766,421,207,103 Nias Utara 1,396,620,675,600 1,749,848,684,724 335,400,739,586 442,082,330,985 Nias Barat 1,682,863,255,708 257,203,207,002 275,441,231,743 358,643,130,290 Silboga 291,699,218,349 368,638,103,891 414,040,749,412 450,894,422,402 Tanjungbalai 338,243,925,602 393,778,674,064 446,140,831,521 472,459,785,942 Pematangsiantar 499,631,564,449 564,819,922,154 639,607,159,845 741,073,062,641 Tebing Tinggi 315,430,692,624 439,094,659,348 479,585,196,047 584,572,435,995 Medan 2,235,195,758,724 3,041,037,853,628 3,021,172,391,041 3,224,449,048,408 Binjai 418,220,391,835 546,497,391,346 650,087,241,200 702,167,562,649 Padangsidimpuan 356,260,243,037 463,524,730,418 527,246,070,030 614,899,498,099 Gunungsitoli 136,058,576,418 343,828,336,582 401,324,408,976 442,554,279,556 Lampiran 8 Data Realisasi Harfhindal Consentration Taxes Kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2010-2013 (persen) Kabupaten/Kota HCT 2010 HCT 2011 HCT 2012 HCT 2013 Nias 9.53 44.63 101 Mandailing natal 44.54 20.01 41.15 30.29 Tapanuli Selatan 21.14 8.23 12.92 13.42 Tapanuli Tengah 20.09 15.58 3.07 2.29 Tapanuli Utara 5.79 65.11 25.12 24.18 Toba Samosir 12.47 16.08 3.77 5.5 Labuhanbatu 21.04 31.48 22.83 5.1 Asahan 19.83 21.71 21.55 14.4 63

Simalungun 92.78 9.87 6.63 10.49 Dairi 22.28 18.38 28.77 52.73 Karo 27.84 30.37 19.91 Deli Serdang 21.49 19.41 22.08 18.04 Langkat 15.47 11.73 4.13 21.34 Nias Selatan 20.69 5.71 67.05 18.52 Humbang Hasundutan 21.1 11.47 13.11 Pakpak Bharat 8.81 10.82 9.28 11.73 Samosir 6.4 5.36 13.9 12.58 Serdang Bedagai 17.35 24.81 17.62 66.31 Batubara 6.88 2.97 5.16 Padang Lawas Utara 8.65 6.87 4.18 4.61 Padang Lawas 22.36 7.66 4.26 15.79 Labuhanbatu Selatan 22.35 5.54 3.21 3.1 Labuhanbatu Utara 8.91 4.64 4.3 Nias Utara 3.22 4.12 3.51 1.93 Nias Barat 3.55 1.24 10.19 4.68 Silboga 60.56 55.97 33.2 51.48 Tanjungbalai 20.24 16.82 11.19 14.68 Pematangsiantar 14.25 43.99 26.3 38.56 Tebing Tinggi 42.69 19.69 11.16 5.56 Medan 51.92 29.88 12.22 18.34 Binjai 7.96 10.5 5.29 17.27 Padangsidimpuan 27.59 25.47 12.62 36.87 Gunungsitoli 521 20.34 2.35 1.85 64