1 Peneliti Ekonomi di Grup Riset Ekonomi Departemen Riset Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter (DKM), Bank Indonesia. Pandangan dalam paper ini merupakan pandangan penulis dan tidak semata-mata mencerminkan pandangan DKM atau Bank Indonesia.
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TR ( q) p( q). q TR( q) p( q). q AR( q) p( q) q q dtr( q) MR( q) dq 7
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9 0 ) ( ' dq dc dq dr q dq d dq dc dq dr 0 ) '( * * 2 2 q q q q dq q d dq d MC dq dc dq dr MR
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β β γ β β β β β β 15
γ γ β γ γ η η η γ 16
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θ β β γ α θ α Є γ γ γ γ γ α θ γ γ γ γ γ α β β β β 19
γ (ii) γ γ γ γ γ γ 20
(3.18) KKI2 Nama Kelompok Industri Jumlah Perusahaan % 15 Makanan dan Minuman 84 37.33 16 Tembakau 9 4.00 17 Tekstil 11 4.89 18 Pakaian Jadi 1 0.44 19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 6 2.67 20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 10 4.44 21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas 5 2.22 22 Penerbitan, percetakan, dan reproduksi 11 4.89 24 Kimia dan barang2 dari bahan kimia 12 5.33 25 Karet dan barang2 dari plastik 26 11.56 26 Barang galian bukan logam 21 9.33 28 Barang2 dari logam dan peralatannya 4 1.78 31 Mesin listrik lainnya dan perlengkapannya 1 0.44 36 Furniture dan industri pengolahan lainnya 24 10.67 Total 225 100.00 21
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Apresiasi Indeks 120 100 % 7 6 80 5 60 Apresiasi Apresiasi 4 3 40 2 20 1 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 REER PDB Manufaktur (yoy) - Kanan 0 25
KandunganInput Impor pada Outputt Sub Sektor Industri Pengolahan Non MigasShare Ekspor 1) Makanan, Minuman, dan Tembakau 13.86 2) Tekstil, Barang Kulit, dan Alas Kaki 39.70 3) Barang Kayu dan Hasil Hutan Lainnya 48.00 4) Kertas dan Barang Cetakan 25.81 5) Kimia dan Barang dari Karet 27.32 6) Semen dan Barang Galian Bukan Logam 11.79 7) Logam Dasar, Besi dan Baja 16.62 8) Alat Angkutan, Mesin dan Peralatannya 22.71 9) Barang Lainnya 60.43 Industri mesin, alat-alat dan perlengkapan listrik Industri barang dari logam Industri pupuk dan pestisida Industri alat pengangkutan dan perbaikannya Industri kimia 2008 2005 2000 1995 % Total 25.19 5 30 55 80 26
Tabel II.4 Distribusi Perusahaan berdasarkan Tingkat Profit Tahun Tingkat Profit Rugi Kecil Sedang Besar 2002 0% 95% 4% 1% 2003 2% 95% 2% 1% 2004 0% 96% 2% 2% 2005 0% 95% 3% 2% 2006 0% 93% 4% 3% 2007 0% 96% 2% 2% 2008 0% 95% 4% 1% 2009 0% 95% 3% 2% Total 0% 95% 3% 2% 27
Apresiasi Apresiasi Indeks 120 % 4 % % 25 4 110 100 3 20 15 19.64 20.09 3 90 Apresiasi 80 70 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 REER Rasio Profit - Kanan 2 1 0 10 2 5 3.9 Apresiasi 2.4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0 0.93 2002 2003 1-5 -3.72-5.71-5.01-10 0 REER (yoy) Rasio Profit - Kanan 28
KKI 2 Subsektor Kecil Sedang Besar 15 Makanan dan Minuman 80% 18% 2% 16 Tembakau 22% 33% 44% 17 Tekstil 27% 9% 64% 18 Pakaian Jadi 0% 0% 100% 19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 67% 33% 0% 20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 50% 30% 20% 21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas 60% 40% 0% 22 Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi 36% 45% 18% 24 Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia 42% 50% 8% 25 Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik 50% 31% 19% 26 Barang Galian Bukan Logam 76% 19% 5% 28 Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya 75% 25% 0% 31 Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya 0% 0% 100% 36 Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 50% 42% 8% Total 61% 27% 12% KKI2 Subsektor Kapital Tenaga Kerja 15 Makanan dan Minuman 0.13 *** 0.58 *** 16 Tembakau 0.13 * 1.29 *** 17 Tekstil 0.21 *** 0.48 *** 18 Pakaian Jadi -0.03 0.43 ** 19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 0.05 1.33 *** 20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 0.12 *** 1.20 *** 21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas -0.49 ** 1.06 *** 22 Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi 0.33 *** 0.78 *** 24 Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia 0.05 1.40 *** 25 Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik 0.14 *** 0.10 26 Barang Galian Bukan Logam -0.01 0.62 *** 28 Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya 0.17 *** 0.74 *** 31 Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya -0.02 1.30 *** 36 Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 0.11 ** 0.67 *** 29
KKI 2 Subsektor Rendah Sedang 15 Makanan dan Minuman 100% 0% 16 Tembakau 100% 0% 17 Tekstil 100% 0% 18 Pakaian Jadi 100% 0% 19 Kulit dan barang dari kulit 0% 100% 20 Kayu, barang dari kayu, dan anyaman 100% 0% 21 Kertas dan barang dari kertas 100% 0% 22 Penerbitan, Percetakan, dan Reproduksi 100% 0% 24 Kimia dan Barang2 dari Bahan Kimia 100% 0% 25 Karet dan Barang2 dari Plastik 100% 0% 26 Barang Galian Bukan Logam 100% 0% 28 Barang2 dari Logam dan Peralatannya 100% 0% 31 Mesin Listrik Lainnya dan Perlengkapannya 100% 0% 36 Furniture dan Industri Pengolahan Lainnya 100% 0% Total 97% 3% 30
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Tahun 2003 KKI 2 Subsektor Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi 15 Makanan & minuman 1% 96% 1% 1% 16 Tembakau 0% 89% 11% 0% 17 Tekstil 0% 100% 0% 0% 18 Pakaian Jadi 0% 100% 0% 0% 19 Kulit & barang dari kulit 0% 83% 17% 0% 20 Kayu & anyaman 0% 100% 0% 0% 21 Kertas & brg dr kertas 0% 100% 0% 0% 22 Penerbitan 0% 91% 9% 0% 24 Kimia 0% 92% 0% 8% 25 Karet & Plastik 0% 96% 4% 0% 26 Barang Galian non Logam 5% 95% 0% 0% 28 Barang Logam 0% 100% 0% 0% 31 Mesin Listrik 0% 100% 0% 0% 36 furnitur 8% 92% 0% 0% Total 2% 95% 2% 1% Tahun 2004 Rendah Sedang Tinggi 99% 0% 1% 89% 11% 0% 91% 0% 9% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 91% 9% 0% 83% 96% 8% 4% 8% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 0% 0% 96% 2% 2% 32
Tahun 2005 Tahun 2006 KKI 2 Subsektor Rendah Sedang Tinggi 15 Makanan & minuman 98% 1% 1% 16 Tembakau 89% 11% 0% 17 Tekstil 91% 9% 0% 18 Pakaian Jadi 100% 0% 0% 19 Kulit & barang dari kulit 83% 0% 17% 20 Kayu & anyaman 100% 0% 0% 21 Kertas & brg dr kertas 100% 0% 0% 22 Penerbitan 91% 0% 9% 24 Kimia 92% 8% 0% 25 Karet & Plastik 100% 0% 0% 26 Barang Galian non Logam 100% 0% 0% 28 Barang Logam 100% 0% 0% 31 Mesin Listrik 0% 0% 100% 36 Furnitur 92% 8% 0% Total 95% 3% 2% Rendah Sedang Tinggi 94% 4% 2% 78% 11% 11% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 91% 0% 9% 100% 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 90% 5% 5% 75% 25% 0% 100% 0% 0% 92% 4% 4% 93% 4% 3% 33
2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Tinggi Sedang Rendah Rugi Total - Total Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi Output (ribu Rp) Tingkat teknologi (level) - Kanan 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Produktivitas (ribu Rp/orang) Tenaga kerja (orang) 34
Rasio Konsentrasi (Level) Pertumbuhan Penjualan 0.4 10% 0.3 8% 6% 0.2 4% 0.1 2% 0.0 Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi Tingkat Profit 0% Rugi Rendah Sedang Tinggi Tingkat Profit 35
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α α 37
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta -3.212 * 1.935 0.033 0.028-2.238 2.738 BIRate -0.054 0.088 BIRate (-1) -0.174 0.119-0.145 0.118 TFP 0.397 *** 0.112 0.355 *** 0.115 TFP (-1) 0.106 0.122 CR 0.001 0.003 CR (-1) 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.003 Sales 0.004 0.005 Sales (-1) 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.005 REER 0.050 ** 0.020 0.033 0.028 0.041 0.028 (1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate -0.142 0.085 0.087 BIRate (-1) -0.302 *** 0.098 0.096-0.305 *** 0.097 0.096 TFP 0.325 *** 0.117 0.098 0.294 *** 0.120 0.093 TFP (-1) -0.037 0.143 0.085 CR 0.000 0.003 0.002 CR (-1) 0.000 0.004 0.003-0.000 0.004 0.003 Sales (REER <=82.24) -0.008 0.010 0.005 Sales (REER > 82.24) 0.004 0.006 0.009 Sales (-1) (REER <=82.24) -0.008 0.010 0.005-0.080 0.045 0.051-0.083 0.045 0.051 Sales (-1) (REER > 82.24) 0.004 0.006 0.009 0.007 * 0.005 0.004 0.006 * 0.005 0.004 Test Efek Threshold Threshold (1) 82.24 (2) 82.24 (3) 82.24 Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) [81.49, 101.13] 0.88 0.42 (3.01, 4.09, 6.49) [81.49, 101.13] 2.37 0.03 (1.22, 2.01, 4.18) [81.49, 101.13] 3.15 0.03 (1.75, 2.58, 4.19) (1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta 1.443 *** 0.374 2.347 *** 0.403 1.646 *** 0.381 BIRate -0.129 0.084 0.092 BIRate (-1) -0.223 ** 0.092-0.223 ** 0.091 TFP 0.343 *** 0.112 0.323 *** 0.115 TFP (-1) 0.078 0.123 CR 0.000 0.003 CR (-1) -0.000 0.003-0.001 0.003 Sales 0.003 0.005 Sales (-1) 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.005 REERg 0.028 * 0.015 0.032 * 0.019 0.028 0.019 38
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate -0.175 * 0.087 0.096 BIRate (-1) -0.302 *** 0.098 0.095-0.305 *** 0.097 0.096 TFP 0.300 *** 0.117 0.093 0.294 *** 0.120 0.093 TFP (-1) -0.004 0.143 0.085 CR 0.000 0.003 0.002 CR (-1) 0.000 0.004 0.003-0.000 0.004 0.003 Sales (REERg <=19.64) -0.011 ** 0.008 0.005 Sales (REERg > 19.64) 0.011 0.007 0.012 Sales (-1) (REERg <=-5.01) -0.080 0.045 0.051-0.083 0.045 0.051 Sales (-1) (REERg >-5.01) 0.007 * 0.005 0.004 0.006 * 0.005 0.0035 Test Efek Threshold (1) (2) (3) Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) 19.64 [-5.71, 20.09] 2.08 0.17 (2.86, 3.90, 5.21) -5.01 [-5.71, 20.09] 2.37 0.06 (1.73, 2.50, 3.99) -5.01 [-5.71, 20.09] 3.15 0.05 (2.08, 3.01, 5.18) 39
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta -13.282 9.429-9.762 8.932-10.498 9.370 BIRate -0.148 0.424 BIRate (-1) 0.204 0.617-0.007 0.563 TFP 0.716 0.594 0.508 0.763 TFP (-1) -2.562 3.291 CR 0.019 0.047 CR (-1) 0.152 0.153 0.014 0.057 Sales -0.038 0.041 Sales (-1) -0.072 0.092-0.003 0.050 REER 0.171 * 0.092 0.238 0.161 0.145 0.093 (1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate -0.287 0.474 0.304 BIRate (-1) -0.971 0.602 0.703-0.941 0.533 0.584 TFP 0.250 1.099 1.151 1.782 1.511 1.648 TFP (-1) -4.805 3.494 4.004 CR -0.070 0.078 0.101 CR (-1) 0.306 0.177 0.217-0.007 0.062 0.042 Sales (-1) (REER <=86.42) 0.198 0.126 0.129 Sales (-1) (REER >86.42) -0.079 0.066 0.063 Sales (-1) (REER <=92.50) 0.109 0.105 0.075 Sales (-1) (REER >92.50) -0.228 0.135 0.159 Sales (REER <=98.76) -0.040 0.071 0.043 Sales (REER > 98.76) 0.001 0.072 0.048 Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (1) (2) 98.76 [81.49, 101.13] 0.27 0.87 (4.23, 5.06, 9.31) 92.50 [81.49, 101.13] 2.34 0.21 (3.43, 4.08, 6.06) (3) 86.42 [81.49, 101.13] 2.73 0.16 (3.45, 4.89, 6.76) 40
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta 5.631 ** 1.634 1.084 6.961 2.967 2.383 BIRate -0.738 * 0.431 BIRate (-1) -0.290 0.550-0.297 0.550 TFP -0.657 0.578 0.380 0.772 TFP (-1) 0.982 2.298 CR -0.055 0.037 CR (-1) -0.033 0.093-0.027 0.082 Sales -0.083 * 0.046 Sales (-1) 0.015 0.072 0.002 0.057 REERg 0.127 ** 0.579 0.042 0.117 0.075 0.098 (1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate -0.234 0.477 0.300 BIRate (-1) -0.905 * 0.693 0.533-0.515 0.542 0.417 TFP 0.056 1.130 1.113-0.194 1.095 0.739 TFP (-1) 0.010 2.787 2.260 CR -0.045 0.059 0.085 CR (-1) -0.029 0.121 0.099 0.012 0.065 0.041 Sales (-1) (REER <=-5.01) 0.074 0.228 0.094 Sales (-1) (REER >-5.01) -0.008 0.060 0.032 Sales (-1) (REER <=2.40) 0.032 0.103 0.081 Sales (-1) (REER >2.40) -0.078 0.119 0.057 Sales (REERg <=20.09) -0.035 0.060 0.033 Sales (REERg > 20.09) 0.020 0.080 0.051 Test Efek Threshold (1) (2) (3) Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) 20.09 [-5.71, 20.09] 0.54 0.71 (5.53, 7.18, 11.08) 2.40 [-5.71, 20.09] 0.61 0.44 (2.67, 3.93, 5.63) -5.01 [-5.71, 20.09] 0.19 0.66 (1.62, 2.23, 4.95) 41
Tahun Share Ekspor/Output 1990 9.05% 1995 10.01% 2000 0.00% 2005 0.00% 42
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta 7.111 11.670 27.381 ** 13.289-6.007 16.765 BIRate -0.186 0.321 BIRate (-1) -0.451 0.475 0.758 0.588 TFP 0.149 0.148 0.435 ** 0.163 TFP (-1) 0.070 0.098 CR 0.006 0.018 CR (-1) 0.033 * 0.016 0.020 0.015 Sales 0.004 0.064 Sales (-1) -0.105 * 0.062-0.154 *** 0.058 REER -0.062 0.127-0.296 * 0.148 0.025 0.173 (1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate 0.019 0.317 0.239 BIRate (-1) -0.431 0.444 0.402 0.407 0.451 0.304 TFP 0.173 * 0.101 0.088 0.411 ** 0.137 0.170 TFP (-1) -0.089 0.124 0.074 CR 0.015 0.016 0.017 CR (-1) 0.049 ** 0.000 0.019 0.026 * 0.016 0.014 Sales (REER <=82.24) 0.254 0.161 0.162 Sales (REER > 82.24) -0.031 0.057 0.081 Sales (-1) (REER <=86.42) 0.200 0.097 0.119-0.277 ** 0.087 0.108 Sales (-1) (REER >86.42) 0.026 0.051 0.039-0.129 * 0.069 0.069 Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (1) (2) (3) 86.42 [81.49, 101.13] 5.90 0.15 (8.20, 10.43, 12.89) 82.24 [81.49, 101.13] 2.67 0.45 (7.03, 9.03, 16.33) 86.42 [86.42, 101.13] -1.28 0.06 (-1.96, -0.53, 2.39) 43
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta 1.251 0.918 1.149 1.055-3.796 ** 1.633 BIRate -0.211 0.306 BIRate (-1) 0.416 0.459 0.666 *** 0.298 TFP 0.220 ** 0.097 0.437 *** 0.129 TFP (-1) -0.059 0.231 CR 0.014 0.016 CR (-1) 0.029 0.020 0.023 0.015 Sales 0.049 0.467 Sales (-1) -0.024 0.048-0.167 *** 0.058 REERg 0.091 * 0.054 0.074 0.171-0.031 0.067 (1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate 0.019 0.317 0.239 BIRate (-1) 0.029 0.392 0.261 0.715 ** 0.373 0.303 TFP 0.173 * 0.101 0.088 0.487 *** 0.132 0.177 TFP (-1) 0.199 0.215 0.160 CR 0.015 0.016 0.016 CR (-1) 0.054 ** 0.020 0.022 0.033 * 0.017 0.017 Sales (REERg <=-5.01) 0.254 0.161 0.162 Sales (REERg > -5.01) -0.031 0.057 0.081 Sales (-1) (REERg <=3.90) -0.037 0.049 0.038-0.217 *** 0.063 0.079 Sales (-1) (REERg >3.90) 0.151 0.127 0.115-0.101 0.074 0.073 Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (1) (2) (3) 3.90 [-5.71, 20.09] 0.97 0.61 (5.85, 8.95, 14.48) -5.01 [-5.71, 20.09] 2.67 0.32 (5.80, 8.27, 12.46) 3.90 [2.40, 20.09] 2.04 0.16 (4.35, 6.51, 9.20) α 44
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta 22.459 12.985 7.520 8.080 4.350 10.099 BIRate -0.410 0.265 BIRate (-1) -0.244 0.460 0.059 8.080 TFP -1.366 *** 0.700-0.280 0.559 TFP (-1) -0.408 0.326 CR -0.002 0.007 CR (-1) -0.007 0.009-0.003 0.009 Sales 0.021 ** 0.010 Sales (-1) -0.010 0.014-0.017 0.013 REER -0.123 0.097-0.024 0.069-0.002 0.079 45
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate -0.147 0.271 0.219 BIRate (-1) -0.476 0.528 0.534 0.325 0.495 0.339 TFP 0.698 0.655 0.504-1.308 1.380 1.021 TFP (-1) -0.442 * 0.309 0.242 CR 0.003 0.008 0.007 CR (-1) -0.016 0.017 0.021-0.005 0.017 0.016 Sales (-1) (REER <=82.24) -0.213 0.244 0.302 Sales (-1) (REER >82.24) -0.001 0.020 0.017 Sales (-1) (REER <=86.42) -0.094 0.105 0.073 Sales (-1) (REER >86.42) -0.005 0.022 0.017 Sales (REER <=101.13) 0.001 0.014 0.014 Sales (REER > 101.13) 0.239 *** 0.106 0.074 Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (1) (2) (3) 82.24 [81.49, 101.13] 0.90 0.34 (2.58, 3.64, 5.12) 101.13 [81.49, 101.13] -0.87 0.78 (1.13, 2.75, 7.28) 86.42 [81.49, 101.13] 0.65 0.58 (3.06, 3.97, 5.59) (1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta 6.507 *** 1.756 3.888 * 2.051 4.255 ** 2.164 BIRate -0.343 0.240 BIRate (-1) -0.321 0.361-0.261 0.394 TFP -0.544 ** 0.265-0.205 0.395 TFP (-1) -0.132 0.363 CR -0.008 ** 0.008 CR (-1) -0.011 0.010-0.011 0.009 Sales 0.024 0.010 Sales (-1) -0.008 0.013-0.007 0.013 REERg -0.039 0.028-0.048 0.056-0.059 0.041 46
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate -0.249 0.342 0.260 BIRate (-1) -0.049 0.343 0.298-0.208 0.457 0.381 TFP -0.559 0.401 0.390-0.225 0.439 0.379 TFP (-1) -0.447 * 0.302 0.237 CR -0.004 0.008 0.006 CR (-1) -0.006 0.016 0.015-0.014 0.016 0.017 Sales (-1) (REERg <=3.90) -0.025 * 0.019 0.013 Sales (-1) (REERg >3.90) -0.003 0.017 0.015 Sales (REERg <=19.64) 0.018 0.029 0.028 Sales (REERg > 19.64) 0.020 0.017 0.014 Sales (-1) (REERg <=20.09) -0.008 0.015 0.012 Sales (-1) (REERg >20.09) -0.434 ** 0.299 0.197 Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (1) 19.64 [-5.71, 20.09] 2.08 0.17 (2.86, 3.90, 5.21) (2) 3.90 [-5.71, 20.09] 1.25 0.63 (4.49, 5.90, 8.07) (3) 20.09 [-5.71, 20.09] -0.20 0.81 (5.06, 6.85, 10.95) Persen Persen 200 60 50 150 40 30 100 20 10 50 0-10 0-20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-30 -50-40 Profit TFP - kanan 47
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta -3.212 * 1.935 0.033 0.028-2.238 2.738 BIRate -0.054 0.088 BIRate (-1) -0.174 0.119-0.145 0.118 TFP 0.397 *** 0.112 0.355 *** 0.115 TFP (-1) 0.106 0.122 CR 0.001 0.003 CR (-1) 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.003 Sales 0.004 0.005 Sales (-1) 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.005 REER 0.050 ** 0.020 0.033 0.028 0.041 0.028 48
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate -0.242 0.482 0.277 BIRate (-1) -0.881 * 0.773 0.484-1.114 * 0.748 0.611 TFP -0.546 1.194 0.822 0.274 1.005 0.498 TFP (-1) 0.776 2.213 1.805 CR -0.001 0.005 0.001 CR (-1) 0.001 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.002 Sales (-1) (REER <=96.07) -0.035 0.051 0.051 Sales (-1) (REER >96.07) -0.094 * 0.081 0.049 Sales (REER <=101.13) 0.028 0.035 0.026 Sales (REER >101.13) 0.021 0.265 0.118 Sales (-1) (REER <=101.13) -0.027 0.031 0.019 Sales (-1) (REER >101.13) -0.129 * 0.077 0.072 Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (1) 101.13 [81.49, 101.13] -0.01 0.61 (1.06, 2.83, 7.46) (2) 96.07 [81.49, 101.13] -1.54 0.70 (5.93, 8.27, 18.39) (3) 101.13 [81.49, 101.13] -1.23 0.42 (-0.65, -0.14, 3.07) (1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta 1.689 4.581 1.383 7.280-0.484 4.265 BIRate -0.263 0.402 BIRate (-1) 0.165 0.580 0.254 0.411 TFP -0.061 0.900 0.362 0.704 TFP (-1) 0.060 1.521 CR -0.004 0.004 CR (-1) -0.003 0.004-0.003 0.004 Sales 0.022 0.028 Sales (-1) -0.016 0.037-0.015 0.024 REERg 0.142 ** 0.066 0.180 * 0.102 0.202 ** 0.083 49
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate 0.015 0.437 0.112 BIRate (-1) 0.047 0.476 0.265-0.152 0.566 0.228 TFP 0.649 1.164 0.381-1.964 1.687 1.987 TFP (-1) 0.143 1.213 0.786 CR 0.002 0.004 0.002 CR (-1) 0.001 0.004 0.001-0.005 0.005 0.005 Sales (-1) (REERg <=-3.72) 0.000 0.033 0.022 0.550 0.392 0.452 Sales (-1) (REERg >-3.72) -1.994 * 0.623 1.026-0.032 0.030 0.020 Sales (REERg <=0.93) -0.017 0.035 0.013 Sales (REERg >0.93) 0.111 0.047 0.070 Sales (-1) (REERg <=20.09) 0.000 0.033 0.022 Sales (-1) (REERg >20.09) -1.994 * 0.623 1.026 Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (1) 0.93 [-5.71, 20.09] -0.43 0.11 (-0.27, 2.92, 5.79) (2) 20.09 [-5.71, 20.09] -0.51 0.79 (3.24, 4.10, 7.55) (3) -3.72 [-5.71, 20.09] 1.66 0.44 (5.16, 7.39, 10.00) 50
Rasio Persen 2.0 60 40 1.5 20 0 1.0-20 0.5-40 -60 0.0-80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Profit Pertumbuhan Penjualan Persen 4.00 70 3.50 60 3.00 50 2.50 40 30 2.00 20 1.50 10 1.00 0 0.50-10 0.00-20 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Profit TFP Rasio Konsentrasi - Kanan 51
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta 4,728 *** 1,535 58,378 *** 9,476 2,134 1,769 BIRate 0,005 0,616 BIRate (-1) 0,487 *** 0,106 0,137 0,176 TFP -0,299 0,399-0,411 0,730 TFP (-1) -13,665 *** 2,264 CR 0,004 * 0,002 CR (-1) 0,006 ** 0,003 0,003 0,003 Sales -0,009 0,005 Sales (-1) -0,120 *** 0,021 0,005 0,006 REER -0,024 ** 0,011-0,157 *** 0,031 0,002 0,027 Salesbbm -0,562 *** 0,063 Salesbbm (-1) -0,014 0,009-0,008 0,011 Dummy BBM -33,893 *** 3,759-3,375 *** 0,712 0,795 0,724 52
Variabel Koefisien (1) (2) (3) Koefisien Koefisien BIRate 0,099 0,089 0,085 BIRate (-1) 0,290 0,116 0,181 0,024 0,092 0,071 TFP -0,975 0,640 0,616-0,145 0,429 0,356 TFP (-1) -4,671 * 1,413 2,543 CR 0,006 * 0,003 0,003 CR (-1) 0,006 0,004 0,005 0,002 0,004 0,004 Salesbbm -0,579 *** 0,067 0,100 Salesbbm (-1) -0,547 *** 0,068 0,097-0,563 0,069 0,106 Dummy BBM -35,059 *** 3,986 5,831-34,167 *** 4,099 5,736-33,474 4,166 6,384 Sales (REER <=82.24) -0,012 * 0,007 0,006 Sales (REER > 82.24) -0,016 0,010 0,011 Sales (-1) (REER <=82.24) 0,484 0,158 0,351 0,446 0,16 0,336 Sales (-1) (REER >82.24) -0,038 *** 0,013 0,002 0,003 0,003 0,002 Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (1) 82,24 [81.49, 101.13] -2,53 0,79 (2.46, 3.78, 6.48) (2) 82,24 [82.24, 82.24] 2,45 0,27 (5.00, 6.82, 11.54) (3) 82,24 [82.24, 82.24] 8,18 0,02 (4.18, 6.40, 10.12) (1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta 2,661 ** 1,043 24,454 *** 5,775 2,346 1,478 BIRate -0,040 0,071 BIRate (-1) 0,366 *** 0,106 0,129 0,116 TFP -0,323 0,352-0,401 0,560 TFP (-1) -7,157 *** 1,783 CR 0,004 0,003 CR (-1) 0,003 0,003 0,003 0,003 Sales -0,007 0,005 Sales (-1) -0,075 0,021 0,004 0,007 REERg 0,017 0,124 0,106 ** 0,044 0,006 0,038 Salesbbm -0,564 *** 0,063 Salesbbm (-1) 0,033 ** 0,016-0,006 0,013 Dummy BBM -34,507 *** 3,774-4,841 *** 1,601 0,661 0,951 53
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate 0,052 0,085 0,074 BIRate (-1) 0,290 0,116 0,181 0,024 0,092 0,071 TFP -0,872 * 0,584 0,480-0,145 0,429 0,356 TFP (-1) -4,671 * 1,413 2,543 CR 0,005 * 0,003 0,003 CR (-1) 0,006 0,004 0,004 0,002 0,004 0,004 Salesbbm -0,591 *** 0,067 0,096 Salesbbm (-1) -0,547 *** 0,068 0,097-0,563 *** 0,069 0,106 Dummy BBM -35,274 *** 3,976 5,741-34,167 *** 4,099 5,736 33,474 *** 4,166 6,384 Sales (REERg <=3.90) -0,013 * 0,007 0,006 Sales (REERg >3.90) 0,005 0,009 0,007 Sales (-1) (REERg <=-5.01) 0,484 0,158 0,351 0,446 0,160 0,336 Sales (-1) (REERg >-5.01) -0,038 * 0,013 0,023 0,003 0,003 0,002 Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (1) 3,90 [-5.71, 20.09] 0,65 0,61 (3.93, 5.27, 8.72) (2) -5,01 [-5.01, 20.09] 2,45 0,28 (4.61, 6.12, 13.34) (3) -5,01 [-5.01, -5.01] 8,18 0,03 (3.96, 6.36, 10.92) α α 54
(1) (2) (3) Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta -12,810 8,602-10,620 11,883-10,198 12,267 BIRate 0,225 0,422 BIRate (-1) -0,028 0,550-0,040 0,553 TFP 0,114 0,355-0,052 0,380 TFP (-1) -0,001 0,393 CR 0,004 0,015 CR (-1) 0,008 0,018 0,008 0,018 Sales 0,014 0,027 Sales (-1) 0,219 0,031 0,022 0,031 REER 0,163 * 0,088 0,126 0,125 0,124 0,126 WTV 0,094 0,093 WTV (-1) 0,094 0,093 0,308 0,269 0,308 0,269 (1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate -0.072 0.423 0.395 BIRate (-1) -0.493 0.621 0.526-0.503 0.614 0.526 TFP 0.123 0.401 0.171-0.010 0.424 0.222 TFP (-1) 0.089 0.525 0.101 CR -0.001 0.018 0.013 CR (-1) 0.020 0.023 0.014 0.022 0.023 0.015 WTV 0.013 0.197 0.169 WTV (-1) 0.378 0.452 0.241 0.374 0.444 0.252 Sales (REER <=98.76) 0.027 ** 0.039 0.014 Sales (REER >98.76) -0.030 0.050 0.031 Sales (-1) (REER <=86.42) -0.040 ** 0.060 0.020-0.040 ** 0.060 0.020 Sales (-1) (REER >86.42) 0.050 ** 0.040 0.022 0.051 ** 0.040 0.024 Test Efek Threshold Threshold Confidence Interval F p-value ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) 98.76 86.42 86.42 [81.49, 101.13] [81.49, 101.13] [81.49, 101.13] 0.56 0.03 0.00 0.49 0.43 0.42 (2.41, 3.25, 5.83) (2.15, 3.34, 6.06) (2.14, 3.53, 5.65) 55
Variabel Panel FE Panel FE Konstanta 2,785 * 1,560 0,985 2,521 1,587 2,469 BIRate -0,099 0,392 BIRate (-1) -0,415 0,425-0,417 0,424 TFP 0,030 0,360-0,113 0,377 TFP (-1) 0,717 0,403 CR 0,001 0,016 CR (-1) 0,060 0,018 0,007 0,183 Sales 0,008 0,028 Sales (-1) 0,013 0,030 0,014 0,030 REERg 0,009 0,067-0,022 0,086-0,020 0,083 WTV 0,041 0,095 WTV (-1) 0,041 0,095 0,335 0,277 0,333 0,277 (1) (2) (3) Variabel Koefisien Koefisien Koefisien BIRate -0.082 0.424 0.389 BIRate (-1) -0.597 0.627 0.594-0.615 0.616 0.582 TFP 0.114 0.402 0.176-0.069 0.428 0.213 TFP (-1) 0.106 0.556 0.113 CR 0.000 *** 0.018 0.001 CR (-1) 0.021 0.024 0.016 0.021 0.025 0.016 WTV 0.017 0.198 0.174 WTV (-1) 0.183 0.426 0.197 0.170 0.413 0.200 Sales (REER <=2.40) 0.027 0.045 0.019 Sales (REER >2.40) -0.010 0.040 0.021 Sales (-1) (REER <=20.09) 0.017 0.035 0.019 0.018 0.036 0.020 Sales (-1) (REER >20.09) 0.079 0.127 0.065 0.074 0.122 0.061 Test Efek Threshold Threshold (1) 2.40 (2) 20.09 (3) 20.09 Confidence Interval [-5.71, 20.09] [-5.71, 20.09] [-5.71, 20.09] F 0.40-0.22-0.23 p-value 0.70 0.85 0.81 ( 10%, 5%, 1% ) (2.77, 3.53, 5.72) (4.51, 7.15, 14.42) (4.43, 6.69, 15.62) 56
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