BULAN

LAMPIRAN I Data Inflasi Bulanan Provinsi Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Provinsi Sumatera Utara Periode Januari 2002 - Desember 2013 TAHUN 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 BULAN JANUARI 3.29 2.02 0.09 2.82-0.12 1.13 FEBRUARI -0.22-0.06 0.03-1.39 0.81 0.47 MARET -0.55-0.93 0.84 1.58 0.46 0.22 APRIL -0.26-0.25 0.95 1.03-0.47-1.1 MEI 1.29 0.07 0.32 0.22 0.63-0.3 JUNI 0.11-0.22 1.22 0.59 0.18 0.82 JULI 0.87 0.22 1.02 1.59 0.68 0.88 AGUSTUS -0.33 1.10-0.27 0.83-0.14 0.31 SEPTEMBER 0.47-1.01-0.18 0.46 0.49 0.97 NOVEMBER 0.11 1.17 0.45 11.56 0.95 0.59 OKTOBER 2.25 1.02 0.73 1.94 0.58 0.87 DESEMBER 2.25 1.08 1.41-0.29 1.92 1.58 TAHUNAN 9.59 4.23 6.80 22.41 6.11 6.60 TAHUN 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 BULAN JANUARI 1.14-0.15 1.40 1.97 1.74 1.39 FEBRUARI 0.38-0.24 0.27-0.47-0.81 0.78 MARET 0.92-0.35-0.64-1.03-0.27 0.34 APRIL 0.21-0.44 0.03-0.83 0.23 0.70 MEI 1.57 0.26 0.28-0.23 0.05 0.28 JUNI 2.18 0 1.90 0.99 1.23 1.28 JULI 1.35 1.15 2.00 0.93 0.67 2.72 AGUSTUS -0.3 0.93-0.36 1.12 0.13 0.52 SEPTEMBER 0.25 1.20-0.14 1.25-0.03 0.10 NOVEMBER 1.19 0.24 0.38-0.65 0.35 0.94 OKTOBER 0.36-0.52 0.94 0.08-0.03 0.68 DESEMBER 0.57 0.52 1.70 0.53 0.56 0.02 TAHUNAN 10.72 2.61 8.00 3.67 3.86 10.18 Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 2 Data Kelompok Komoditi Penyusun Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Bulanan Provinsi Sumatera Utara Berdasarkan 7 Kelompok Pengeluaran Periode Januari 2007 Desember 2012 Periode SUMUT-Bama SUMUT-Mamin SUMUT-Perum SUMUT-Sand 2007/M01 2,55 0,72 2,28-0,58 2007/M02 0,68 0,69-0,97 0,73 2007/M03 1,43 0,66 0,51 0,13 2007/M04-3,90 0,18 0,20 0,42 2007/M05-1,36-0,03-0,89 0,16 2007/M06 2,52 0,55-0,01-0,23 2007/M07 1,42 0,73 0,43 0,71 2007/M08 0,23 0,39 0,78 0,58 2007/M09 1,87 0,59 1,21 0,96 2007/M10 0,54 0,49 0,26 1,15 2007/M11 1,68 0,00 0,27 1,72 2007/M12 3,26 0,02 0,43 0,56 2008/M01 2,71 0,44 0,92 1,78 2008/M02 1,82 0,66 0,47 1,35 2008/M03 1,36 1,18 1,01 1,19 2008/M04-0,28 0,81 0,51-0,11 2008/M05 2,57 0,51 1,12-0,16 2008/M06 2,46 0,34 1,55 0,04 2008/M07 1,48 0,22 1,95 1,02 2008/M08-0,77 1,14 0,45-0,62 2008/M09 0,84 1,53 1,20 0,31 2008/M10 0,39 0,96 0,75 1,28 2008/M11 1,58-0,01 0,25 0,50 2008/M12 3,74 0,69 0,06 1,06 2009/M01 0,43 0,33 0,07 1,02 2009/M02-1,36 1,93 0,19 3,20 2009/M03-2,58 0,43 0,13 1,93 2009/M04-1,54 1,07-0,39-1,41 2009/M05 0,18 0,69 0,52-1,06 2009/M06-0,70 0,90 0,20-0,07 2009/M07 1,83 0,39 1,80 0,11 2009/M08 2,35 0,36-1,24-0,27 2009/M09 3,11 0,96 0,32 1,18 2009/M10 0,85 0,65 0,14 0,52 2009/M11-1,64 0,52 0,15 0,63 2009/M12-2,09 0,63 0,75 1,36 2010/M01 2,60 2,65 0,73 0,02 2010/M02-0,37 0,86 0,34-0,49 2010/M03-2,50 0,48-0,14 0,33 2010/M04 0,98 0,23 0,00 0,84 2010/M05-0,16 0,91 0,05 1,29 2010/M06 5,48 0,14 0,27 0,60 2010/M07 5,79 0,24 0,46 0,57 2010/M08-2,67 0,37 0,99 0,09 2010/M09-1,23 0,34 0,17 1,20 2010/M10-0,79 1,17 0,79 1,23 2010/M11 4,07 0,45 0,10 1,13 2010/M12 6,48 0,81 0,71 1,16 2011/M01 5,93 1,15 0,93 0,46 2011/M02-0,77 0,08 0,48 0,16

2011/M03-4,75 0,37 0,40 0,29 2011/M04-4,30 0,17 0,13 0,76 2011/M05-1,64 0,75 0,13 1,26 2011/M06 1,55 0,44 0,46 0,83 2011/M07 1,63 1,04 0,15 0,35 2011/M08 1,04 0,89 0,18 3,26 2011/M09 2,35 0,41 0,17 1,89 2011/M10 0,09 0,15 0,52-0,11 2011/M11-0,63 0,83 0,50 0,30 2011/M12 2,39 0,32 0,18 1,48 2012/M01 4,59 1,02 0,89-0,46 2012/M02-3,28 0,23 0,28 1,12 2012/M03-1,35 0,13 0,31 0,31 2012/M04 0,56 0,63 0,31-0,25 2012/M05-0,84 0,37 0,58-0,01 2012/M06 4,00 1,13 0,53 0,13 2012/M07 0,17 0,30 0,17 0,15 2012/M08 0,24 0,73 0,41 1,56 2012/M09-2,11 1,10 0,13 1,20 2012/M10-0,37 0,08 0,09 1,01 2012/M11-0,99 0,08 0,15-0,20 2012/M12 2,09 0,23 0,30 0,03 Periode SUMUT-Kes SUMUT-Pendik SUMUT-Trans 2007/M01 0,21-0,01 0,05 2007/M02 0,09 0,06-0,01 2007/M03 0,07 0,11 0,09 2007/M04 0,34 0,05 0,17 2007/M05 0,24 0,08 0,02 2007/M06 0,18 0,25 0,08 2007/M07 0,08 4,72 0,00 2007/M08 0,11 4,68 0,05 2007/M09 0,11 0,55-0,01 2007/M10 0,06 0,14 0,21 2007/M11 0,10 1,23 0,11 2007/M12 0,33 0,00 0,11 2008/M01 0,25 0,20 0,17 2008/M02 1,11 0,09 0,09 2008/M03 0,46 0,00 0,06 2008/M04 1,45 0,12-0,72 2008/M05 0,15 0,71 1,72 2008/M06 0,75 0,68 8,50 2008/M07 0,29 3,05 0,72 2008/M08 0,45 0,91-0,42 2008/M09 0,60 0,39 0,06 2008/M10 0,24 0,05 0,00 2008/M11 0,03 0,30-0,12 2008/M12 0,11 0,14-2,30 2009/M01 0,15-0,02-2,00 2009/M02 0,51-0,03-0,53 2009/M03 0,04 0,08-0,77 2009/M04 0,06-0,24-0,03 2009/M05 0,34 0,12 0,01 2009/M06 0,23 0,21-0,04 2009/M07 0,33 2,88 0,81 2009/M08-0,03 2,34-0,28 2009/M09 0,64 1,05-0,04 2009/M10 0,24-0,01-0,57 2009/M11-0,07 0,00-0,28

2009/M12 0,13-0,09 0,26 2010/M01 0,15 0,14 0,34 2010/M02 0,39 0,25 0,20 2010/M03 0,28 0,01-0,17 2010/M04 0,70 0,00 0,29 2010/M05-0,03 0,00 0,05 2010/M06 0,15 0,07 0,36 2010/M07 0,45 1,07 0,04 2010/M08 0,03 1,02 0,25 2010/M09 0,25 0,87 0,61 2010/M10 0,04 0,43-0,96 2010/M11 0,01 0,49-0,22 2010/M12 0,22 0,14 0,22 2011/M01 0,93 0,05 0,57 2011/M02 0,33 0,31-0,38 2011/M03 0,18 0,13-0,38 2011/M04 0,43 0,09-0,03 2011/M05 0,53 0,02 0,26 2011/M06-0,15 0,02 0,33 2011/M07 0,62 0,90 0,58 2011/M08 0,25 0,86 0,23 2011/M09 0,47 0,77 0,40 2011/M10 0,39 0,90-1,22 2011/M11 0,25 0,06 0,31 2011/M12-0,24-0,07-0,07 2012/M01 0,48 0,07 1,22 2012/M02 0,43 0,54-0,15 2012/M03 0,44 0,09 0,12 2012/M04 0,28 0,01 0,31 2012/M05 0,10 0,08 0,14 2012/M06 0,24 0,03-0,06 2012/M07-0,44 1,40 1,00 2012/M08 0,42 1,05 0,22 2012/M09 0,48 1,27-0,31 2012/M10 0,41 1,05 0,11 2012/M11 0,36 0,06 0,27 2012/M12 0,26-0,30-0,13 Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 3 HASIL OUTPUT UJI PENYIMPANGAN ASUMSI KLASIK Hasil Output Uji Autokorelasi Durbin Waston Test Dependent Variable: INFLASI Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 14:13 Sample: 2002M01 2013M12 Included observations: 144 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 0.742361 0.163222 4.548162 0.0000 TPID -0.111944 0.230831-0.484963 0.6285 R-squared 0.001654 Mean dependent var 0.686389 Adjusted R-squared -0.005377 S.D. dependent var 1.381278 S.E. of regression 1.384986 Akaike info criterion 3.503049 Sum squared resid 272.3826 Schwarz criterion 3.544297 Log likelihood -250.2195 F-statistic 0.235189 Durbin-Watson stat 1.642706 Prob(F-statistic) 0.628450 Hasil Output Uji langrange Multiple Test (LM-Test). Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 3.131058 Probability 0.046745 Obs*R-squared 6.165265 Probability 0.045838 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 14:44 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 0.000514 0.160832 0.003198 0.9975 TPID -0.001520 0.227456-0.006681 0.9947 RESID(-1) 0.187451 0.083862 2.235225 0.0270 RESID(-2) -0.124296 0.083877-1.481880 0.1406 R-squared 0.042814 Mean dependent var -2.01E-17 Adjusted R-squared 0.022303 S.D. dependent var 1.380135 S.E. of regression 1.364658 Akaike info criterion 3.487069 Sum squared resid 260.7207 Schwarz criterion 3.569564 Log likelihood -247.0690 F-statistic 2.087372 Durbin-Watson stat 1.992712 Prob(F-statistic) 0.104635 Hasil Output Pengobatan Uji Autokorelasi Durbin Waston Test First Difference Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 15:03 Sample (adjusted): 2002M02 2013M12 Included observations: 143 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. D(TPID) -0.440000 1.774897-0.247902 0.8046 R-squared 0.000326 Mean dependent var -0.018252 Adjusted R-squared 0.000326 S.D. dependent var 1.775187 S.E. of regression 1.774897 Akaike info criterion 3.992330 Sum squared resid 447.3369 Schwarz criterion 4.013050 Log likelihood -284.4516 Durbin-Watson stat 2.630904

Hasil Output Pengobatan Uji Autokorelasi Durbin Watson Test Dengan Model AR Dependent Variable: INFLASI Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 23:02 Sample (adjusted): 2002M02 2013M12 Included observations: 143 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 0.700431 0.193382 3.622000 0.0004 TPID -0.071104 0.271680-0.261718 0.7939 AR(1) 0.166669 0.082283 2.025564 0.0447 R-squared 0.529225 Mean dependent var 0.668182 Adjusted R-squared 0.515357 S.D. dependent var 1.368683 S.E. of regression 1.358133 Akaike info criterion 3.470855 Sum squared resid 258.2335 Schwarz criterion 3.533012 Log likelihood -245.1661 F-statistic 2.107324 Durbin-Watson stat 1.923369 Prob(F-statistic) 0.125403 Inverted AR Roots.17

Hasil Output Pengobatan Autokorelasi Uji LM Test Dengan Model AR Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 1.647263 Probability 0.196340 Obs*R-squared 3.334291 Probability 0.188785 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 10/06/14 Time: 02:10 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 0.033188 0.194317 0.170795 0.8646 TPID -0.032249 0.271719-0.118684 0.9057 AR(1) -0.660402 0.512422-1.288785 0.1996 RESID(-1) 0.694982 0.516433 1.345736 0.1806 RESID(-2) 0.008483 0.120078 0.070649 0.9438 R-squared 0.023317 Mean dependent var -7.38E-13 Adjusted R-squared -0.004993 S.D. dependent var 1.348535 S.E. of regression 1.351897 Akaike info criterion 3.475234 Sum squared resid 252.2123 Schwarz criterion 3.578830 Log likelihood -243.4792 F-statistic 0.823631 Durbin-Watson stat 2.025607 Prob(F-statistic) 0.512222

LAMPIRAN 4 HASIL OUTPUT UJI KESESUAIAN ( Test Goodness of fit ) Hasil Output Koefisien Determinasi ( R 2 ) dan Hasil Uji t-statistik (Uji Parsial) Dependent Variable: INFLASI Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 23:02 Sample (adjusted): 2002M02 2013M12 Included observations: 143 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C 0.700431 0.193382 3.622000 0.0004 TPID -0.071104 0.271680-0.261718 0.7939 AR(1) 0.166669 0.082283 2.025564 0.0447 R-squared 0.529225 Mean dependent var 0.668182 Adjusted R-squared 0.515357 S.D. dependent var 1.368683 S.E. of regression 1.358133 Akaike info criterion 3.470855 Sum squared resid 258.2335 Schwarz criterion 3.533012 Log likelihood -245.1661 F-statistic 2.107324 Durbin-Watson stat 1.923369 Prob(F-statistic) 0.125403 Inverted AR Roots.17

LAMPIRAN 5 Hasil Output Model Autoregressive Untuk Mengukur Tingkat Persistensi Inflasi Hasil Pengukuran Persistensi Provinsi Sumatera Utara dan Hasil Pengujian Sumber Persistensi Provinsi Sumatera Utara Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:44 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after Adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] PERSISTENSI_IN FLASI PERSISTENSI_INFLASI(-1) 0.264973 (0.10276) [ 2.57861] PERSISTENSI_INFLASI(-2) -0.027365 (0.10640) [-0.25719] C -0.113143 (0.24174) [-0.46803] BAMA_SUMUT 0.261727 (0.05044) [ 5.18903] MAMIN_SUMUT 0.091307 (0.25579) [ 0.35697] PERUM_SUMUT 0.198871

(0.26513) [ 0.75010] SAND_SUMUT 0.075231 (0.13458) [ 0.55901] KES_SUMUT 0.509135 (0.40351) [ 1.26176] PENDIK_SUMUT 0.041862 (0.12006) [ 0.34869] TRANS_SUMUT 0.100577 (0.10665) [ 0.94308] R-squared 0.496473 Adj. R-squared 0.420944 Sum sq. resids 49.40715 S.E. equation 0.907443 F-statistic 6.573276 Log likelihood -87.13169 Akaike AIC 2.775191 Schwarz SC 3.096405 Mean dependent 0.570571 S.D. dependent 1.192502

Hasil Persistensi Inflasi Provinsi Sumatera Utara Kelompok Komoditi Kelompok Bahan Makanan (BAMA) Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:57 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] BAMA_SUMUT BAMA_SUMUT(-1) 0.428731 (0.11633) [ 3.68539] BAMA_SUMUT(-2) -0.320923 (0.11624) [-2.76096] C 0.626493 (0.27755) [ 2.25726] R-squared 0.195412 Adj. R-squared 0.171394 Sum sq. resids 321.0311 S.E. equation 2.188952 F-statistic 8.136205 Log likelihood -152.6322 Akaike AIC 4.446634 Schwarz SC 4.542998 Mean dependent 0.681571 S.D. dependent 2.404707

Kelompok Makanan Jadi, Minuman, Rokok dan Tembakau Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:59 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after Adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] MAMIN_SUMUT MAMIN_SUMUT(-1) 0.052515 (0.12257) [ 0.42846] MAMIN_SUMUT(-2) -0.039091 (0.12372) [-0.31596] C 0.594893 (0.11894) [ 5.00150] R-squared 0.004064 Adj. R-squared -0.025665 Sum sq. resids 14.79560 S.E. equation 0.469925 F-statistic 0.136712 Log likelihood -44.92992 Akaike AIC 1.369426 Schwarz SC 1.465790 Mean dependent 0.602714 S.D. dependent 0.464009

Kelompok Perumahan, Air, Listrik, Gas dan Bahan Bakar Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:59 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after Adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] PERUM_SUMUT PERUM_SUMUT(-1) 0.129243 (0.11158) [ 1.15834] PERUM_SUMUT(-2) 0.207163 (0.10267) [ 2.01774] C 0.273959 (0.08517) [ 3.21668] R-squared 0.074215 Adj. R-squared 0.046579 Sum sq. resids 15.79770 S.E. equation 0.485579 F-statistic 2.685493 Log likelihood -47.22362 Akaike AIC 1.434961 Schwarz SC 1.531325 Mean dependent 0.413143 S.D. dependent 0.497299

Kelompok Sandang Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:01 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] SAND_SUMUT SAND_SUMUT(-1) 0.310830 (0.12026) [ 2.58471] SAND_SUMUT(-2) -0.174107 (0.11926) [-1.45994] C 0.545622 (0.13365) [ 4.08260] R-squared 0.099246 Adj. R-squared 0.072357 Sum sq. resids 42.24515 S.E. equation 0.794056 F-statistic 3.691047 Log likelihood -81.65050 Akaike AIC 2.418586 Schwarz SC 2.514950 Mean dependent 0.634714 S.D. dependent 0.824443

Kelompok Kesehatan Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:01 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] KES_SUMUT KES_SUMUT(-1) -0.005638 (0.11844) [-0.04760] KES_SUMUT(-2) 0.231193 (0.11845) [ 1.95189] C 0.224194 (0.05867) [ 3.82105] R-squared 0.053844 Adj. R-squared 0.025600 Sum sq. resids 5.445373 S.E. equation 0.285086 F-statistic 1.906420 Log likelihood -9.945180 Akaike AIC 0.369862 Schwarz SC 0.466226 Mean dependent 0.288143 S.D. dependent 0.288807

Kelompok Pendidikan, Rekreasi dan Olahraga Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:02 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] PENDIK_SUMUT PENDIK_SUMUT(-1) 0.606326 (0.11684) [ 5.18916] PENDIK_SUMUT(-2) -0.303143 (0.11678) [-2.59594] C 0.382582 (0.11940) [ 3.20410] R-squared 0.287039 Adj. R-squared 0.265757 Sum sq. resids 45.60324 S.E. equation 0.825012 F-statistic 13.48716 Log likelihood -84.32762 Akaike AIC 2.495075 Schwarz SC 2.591439 Mean dependent 0.551714 S.D. dependent 0.962810

Kelompok Transportasi, Komunikasi dan Jasa Keuangan Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:02 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] TRANS_SUMUT TRANS_SUMUT(-1) 0.285378 (0.12095) [ 2.35953] TRANS_SUMUT(-2) -0.144046 (0.12095) [-1.19091] C 0.115593 (0.13741) [ 0.84123] R-squared 0.081600 Adj. R-squared 0.054185 Sum sq. resids 86.66074 S.E. equation 1.137297 F-statistic 2.976470 Log likelihood -106.7984 Akaike AIC 3.137097 Schwarz SC 3.233461 Mean dependent 0.135429 S.D. dependent 1.169420