FAKULTAS PASCA SARJANA INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG PROGRAM SISTEM DAN TEKNIK JALAN RAYA EFFECTS OF THE JUNE - 1983 AND SEPTEMBER - 1985 INCREASES IN TOLL CHARGES ON TRAFFIC FLOWS AND REVENUES: THE JAGORAWI TOLL HIGHWAY
SUMMARY EFFECTS OF THE JUNE-1983 AND SEPTEMBER-1985 INCREASES IN TOLL CHARGES ON TRAFFIC FLOWS AND REVENUES: THE JAGORAWI TOLL HIGHWAY, Prabowo, Agung Rin, 1988, Program Sistem dan Teknik Jalan Raya, Fakultas Pasca Sarjana, Institut Teknologi Bandung. The owners of many toll facilities face the problem of maximizing gross revenues from toll collection. An increase in the toll charged may cause a change in the demand pattern, and further result in a change in gross revenue. It is by no means certain that the way to increase revenue is to increase toll charges. The Jagorawi toll highway, the first toll facility opened for use in Indonesia, has thrice implemented increases in the tolls charged: on 15 June 1983; on 1 September 1985; and on 1 August 1988. The average toll charge in June 1983 was increased by about 100%. In September 1985, the average toll charge was increased by about 56%. The June-1983 increase generally resulted in higher percentages of patronage lost, compared with the September-1985 increase. The Jagorawi toll highway traffic growth rates have declined following the June-1983 and September-1985 increases in toll charges. During March 1978 to May 1983 the Jagorawi corridor trips grew at the rate of 34% per annum. Following the June-1983 increases in toll charges until August 1985, Jagorawi corridor trips grew at the rate of 16%. For the period of September 1985 to December 1987, the Jagorawi traffic growth rate was approximately 11% per annum. The present research employed monthly trip data and gross revenues supplied by PT. Jasa Marga, operators of the 47-km toll highway from Jakarta to Ciawi, Indonesia. Box-Jenkins techniques were applied to the corridor traffic and associated gross revenues to determine the effects of the 1983- and the 1985-increases in the schedule of toll charges. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed to enable comparisons of 12-month forecasts with actual trips and gross revenues following the two increases in tolls. The models proved to be satisfactory means to estimate the losses in traffic served, and the gains in revenue, expressed in Indonesian rupiah. It is evident that, at current toll charges, a further increase in toll charged would result in a moderate diminution of traffic volume, with an opportunity to further increase the gross revenue. However, as the Jagorawi traffic growth appears to be declining, a further increase in toll charges should be carefully studied. iv
RINGKASAN EFFECTS OF THE JUNE-1983 AND SEPTEMBER-1085 INCREASES IN TOLL CHARGES ON TRAFFIC FLOWS AND REVENUES: THE JAGORAWI TOLL HIGHWAY, Prabowo, Agung Rin, 1988, Program Sistern dan Teknik Jalan Raya, Fakultas Pasca Sarjana, Institut Teknologi Bandung. Para pengelola prasarana toll menghadapi masalah untuk memaksimumkan pendapatan kotornya dari pungutan toll. Penaikan tarif toll akan mengakibatkan perubahan pola demand, dan selanjutnya akan mengakibatkan perubahan pada pendapatan kotor. Sudah barang tentu tidak berarti bahwa Cara untuk meningkatkan pendapatan adalah dengan menaikan tarif. Jalan toll Jagorawi, prasarana toll pertama yang dibuka di Indonesia, telah mengalami tiga kali kenaikan tarif toll: pada 15 Juni 1983; pada 1 September 1985; dan pada 1 Agustus 1988. Tarif toll rata-rata dinaikan sekitar 100% pada bulan Juni 1983. Pada bulan September 1985 tarif toll rata-rata dinaikan sekitar 56%. Kenaikan toll Juni-1983 secara umum mengakibatkan persentase kehilangan pelanggan yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan kenaikan toll September-1985. Tingkat pertumbuhan lalu lintas di Jalan Toll Jagorawi menurun akibat kenaikan tarif toll pada bulan Juni 1983 dan bulan September 1985. Dalam kurun Maret 1978 sampai Mei 1983, lalu lintas di Jalan Toll Jagorawi berkembang dengan, angka pertumbuhan 34% per tahun. Setelah kenaikan tarif toll Juni-1983 sampai Agustus 1985, lalu lintas Jagorawi berkembang dengan angka pertumbuhan 16% per tahun. Untuk perioda September 1985 sampai Desember 1987, angka pertumbuhan lalu lintas kira-kira 11% per tahun. Penelitian ini memanfaatkan data volume lalu lintas dan pendapatan kotor bulanan yang diberikan oleh PT. Jasa Marga, penyelenggara jalan toll sepanjang 47 km dari Jakarta ke Ciawi, Indonesia. Teknik Box-.7en.kins digunakan untuk mengkaji efekefek dari kenaikan tarif toll pada bulan Juni 1983 dan bulan September 1985. Model-model autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) dirakit sehingga memungkinkan untuk melakukan perbandingan antara hasil peramalan volume lalu lintas dan pendapatan kotor bulanan, pada 12 bulan pertama setelah kenaikan tarif toll, dengan yang terjadi sebenarnya. Model-model tersebut terbukti merupakan alat yang baik untuk memperkirakan pengurangan arus lalu lintas, dan kenaikan pendapatan. Ternyata bahwa, pada tingkat tarif saat ini, suatu kenaikan tarif toll hanya mengakibatkan pengurangan arus lalu lintas yang tidak terlalu banyak, dengan suatu peluang kenaikan pendapatan kotor. Akan tetapi, karena pertumbuhan lalu lintas di Jalan Toll Jagorawi tampak mulai menurun, penaikan tarif toll berikutnya perlu pengkajian yang mendalam. v