COMMENTS TO 5 th IPCC AR Rizaldi Boer Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in South East Asia and Pacific, Bogor Agriculture University
Year 2050 Global Target (Allowable Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emission from 1870 (GtCO2) to avoid the increase of GHG temperature over 2 0 C) Gt C 2750 2710 2660 2385 Year 2011 1870 Pre-industry 275 515 Global emission in 2011 =is 9.9 Gt C, if this continue within 30 years we will reach the ceiling: dead end 325 365 515 515 66% 50% 33% Probability to exceed 2oC Based on IPCC (2013)
Projection of Indonesian Emission under the BAU up to 2020 (based on SNC; MoE 2010) Projection With 41% ERT (26%+15%) of by 2020, per capita emission is expected to be 6.6 tco 2 AFOLU 3.55 7.61 6.14 Non-AFOLU 2.26 3.09 5.01 Total 5.81 10.70 11.15 Per Capita Emission (ton CO2 To meet the global target, we expect to reduce our per capita emission by 2050 to 1.27 tco2 The need to decarbonized our development deeply
Development Path Target Target Target Target Property Level ideal Risk of Collapse Current Emission Per Capita
Adaptation and mitigation to reduce impact of Climate Change IMPACT Without adaptation, impact of CC will be huge and threaten our sustainable development ~ economic lost WB & ADB (2010) equivalent to 7% GDP Effect of adaptation Impact CC Residual impact of CC: Depending on effort to mitigate cc and reducing vulnerability through adaptation Impact of CC with Adaptation Impact NON-CC Need adaptation to reduce the impact TIME
Economic Loss due to Climate Related Natural Hazards in ASEAN Countries Source: Analyzed based on Gupta, 2010
GHG emissions per capita Developed Countries Developing Countries LCS scenario in Asia By 2050, under BAU emission from Asia will contribute to about 50% of global emission Leapfrog Development High Energy Locked-in Type Development With High Damage on Economy and Natural System Asia is standing at a crossroads. http://2050.nies.go.jp/index.html If Asian countries introduce innovative technologies 2050 and leapfrog Time in their development, they will be able to move down the pathway to low-carbon development (science based policy is important)
Countermeasures to implement technologies AIM/Enduse[Japan] Marginal Abatement Costs (Yen/ktCO2) 50,000 40,000 30,000 1) Enhancement of Top Runner 20,000 Top energy efficiency in all sectors -Enhancement of regulation - Introduction 10,000 of benchmark regulation -10,000-20,000-30,000-40,000 3) Carbon pricing Mechanism that reduction effort is economically rewarding -Introduction of emission trading -Green tax, Environmental tax (international competitivenss should be consideres) Sets of Measures A Negative abatement costs. Economically feasilbe Sets of Measures B Marginal abatement costs are under certain level Sets of Measures C High cost measures. Requires appropriate policy measures 4) Mechanism to enhance technology development and deployment Strategic support for -Enhanced RPS, Feed-in Tariff -Green New Deal - Enhanced standard of energy saving building 2) Visualization of countermeasure activities Information to encourage smart and rational choices - Labeling of GHG emissions - Mechanism to make the choices economically feasible (e.g. combination with carbon offset). 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000 - Real time display of electric consumption Source: NIES GHG reduction(ktco2eq)
Emission from FOLU in 2010 In 2005 AFOLU contributed 22% of global emission (IPCC). By 2050, without greater efforts to mitigate it, the contribution increase to 30% (FAO).
Climate Smart Agriculture (Modified from FAO, 2012) Komponen SUT Teknologi Input SUT Pemanfaatan Lahan SDA Pasca Panen dan pemasaran Pemanfaatan informasi iklim SUT Intensifikasi yang konvensional Konversi sumber energi untuk pengelolaan UT dari tenaga manusia ke tenaga hewan dan mesin pertanian dengan BBM Peningkatan penggunaan pupuk, pestisida dan herbisida (sangat tergantung pada BBM) dan umumnya kurang efisien. Perluasan lahan pertanian melalui deforestasi dan konversi dari alang/semak ke lahan pertanian Kualitas SDA (e.g. lahan, air, sumber genetic) yang digunakan dalam sistem produksi menurun/terdegradasi Kehilangan hasil pasca panen tinggi, jenis produk masih terbatas dan strategi pemasaran belum baik Belum memanfaatkan informasi (prakiraan) iklim secara optimal dalam mengelola risiko iklim dan mengembangan kegiatan UT SUT yang climate smart Penggunaan teknologi yang lebih efisien energi dan sumber energi berbasis non-bbm Penggunaan pupuk non-organik lebih efisien dan pupuk organik meningkat (optimalisasi pemanfaatan limbah organik), Lebih mengintensifkan lahan yang sudah digunakan dari pada memperluas ke wilayah baru Restorasi, konservasi dan penggunaan SDA yang lebih lestari Kehilangan hasil pasca panen rendah, jenis produk semakin beragam (JL), strategi pemasaran yang lebih baik Informasi (prakiraan) iklim digunakan secara efektif dalam mengelola risiko iklim dan dijadikan pertimbangan dalam pengembangan kegiatan UT
Science-Policy Network National Government Others IPCC Indonesia LowCARNet Local/Regional Research Network Local/Regional Research Network Local/Regional Research Network Local/Regiona l Governments Local/Regiona l Government