METODE SISTEM. oleh Dr. Andreo Wahyudi Atmoko, MSi.

Ukuran: px

Mulai penontonan dengan halaman:

Download "METODE SISTEM. oleh Dr. Andreo Wahyudi Atmoko, MSi."

Benny Iskandar
9 tahun lalu
Tontonan:

1 METODE SISTEM oleh Dr. Andreo Wahyudi Atmoko, MSi.

2 TOPIK Prinsip Sistem Paradigma & Klasifikasi Metode Sistem Kapan Menggunakan Metode System Dynamics Langkah2 Pemodelan System Dynamics A. Wahyudi Atmoko 2

3 1. Prinsip Sistem System? A collection of parts that interact with one another to function as a whole. A System is more than the sum of its part it is the product of their interaction (Ackoff, 1993); A grouping of parts that operate together for a common purpose (Forrester, 1968). A. Wahyudi Atmoko 3

4 SYSTEMS THINKING? Adalah cara memandang masalah sebagai sebuah sistem; yaitu memandang masalah secara menyeluruh (whole- ness) dan adanya keterkaitan antar bagian sistem (connectedness). A. Wahyudi Atmoko 4

5 Konsep sistem mengandung: 1. Element/unsur 2. Relationship 3. Boundary 4. Input & output 5. Environtment 6. Feedback (Flood & Jackson, 1991) A. Wahyudi Atmoko 5

6 Ciri Sistem SISTEM = KUMPULAN UNSUR YANG SALING BERKAITAN DAN BERSAMA-SAMA MELAKUKAN FUNGSI TERTENTU CIRI: UNSUR BANYAK, LEBIH DARI SATU SALING BERHUBUNGAN, SALING BERGANTUNGAN, SALING BERINTERAKSI SECARA MENYELURUH, BERSAMA-SAMA FUNGSI TERTENTU, TUJUAN BERSAMA A. Wahyudi Atmoko 6

7 Sifat Sistem SISTEM TERDIRI DARI BEBERAPA SUBSISTEM. SISTEM MENJADI BAGIAN (SUBSISTEM) DARI SISTEM YANG LEBIH BESAR SIFAT SISTEM ADALAH SIFAT SISTEM MENYELURUH. SIFAT SISTEM HANYA MUNCUL APABILA SISTEM BEKERJA SECARA MENYELURUH. SUBSISTEM TIDAK MEMILIKI SIFAT SISTEM A. Wahyudi Atmoko 7

8 MEMECAH SISTEM MENJADI SUBSISTEM ADALAH ANALISIS. ANALISIS BERTUJUAN UNTUK MENDALAMI PENGETAHUAN TENTANG SUBSISTEM. SIFAT SUBSISTEM BUKAN SIFAT SISTEM MENYELURUH. MEMBANGUN SUBSISTEM MENJADI SISTEM ADALAH SINTESIS. SINTESIS BERTUJUAN UNTUK MENGETAHUI SIFAT SISTEM SECARA MENYELURUH. A. Wahyudi Atmoko 8

9 SEMUA SUBSISTEM MEMPUNYAI PENGARUH TERHADAP SISTEM (MIS. TUBUH, MOBIL) KETERKAITAN MENGAKIBATKAN KOMPLEKSITAS. DETAIL COMPLEXITY = BESARNYA JUMLAH SUBSISTEM (MIS. JIGSAW PUZZLE). DYNAMIC COMPLEXITY = BESARNYA JUMLAH KETERKAITAN SUBSISTEM (MIS. CATUR) A. Wahyudi Atmoko 9

10 MENGUBAH SUATU SUBSISTEM AKAN MENGAKIBATKAN PERUBAHAN DALAM SISTEM, DAN AKAN TERJADI AKIBAT SAMPINGAN SISTEM AKAN MELAWAN PERUBAHAN YANG TERJADI DALAM SISTEM, KARENA SUBSISTEM SALING TERKAIT DALAM SISTEM DALAM SISTEM TERDAPAT SUBSISTEM YANG DENGAN UPAYA KECIL DAPAT MENGAKIBATKAN PERUBAHAN BESAR DALAM SISTEM = LEVERAGE Small push in the right direction is enough (Senge, 1990) A. Wahyudi Atmoko 10

11 Fenomena Bisnis Gula Ekspor Int l Trade Issue Penanaman Tebu Panen Supply - Harga - - Penimbunan Stok Nasional - Konsumsi Impor Isu Politik Minat Tanam Subsidi - Spekulan A. Wahyudi Atmoko 11

12 ST dalam Keseharian CYCLICAL PATTERN WE ARE IN THIS TOGETHER FLUCTUATING PATTERN VICIOUS CIRCLE DOMINO EFFECT A. Wahyudi Atmoko 12

13 RIPPLE EFFECT CHRONIC BEHAVIOUR DOWNWARD/UPWARD SPIRAL SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY SNOWBALLING ORGANISASI PEMBELAJARAN A. Wahyudi Atmoko 13

14 2. Paradigma & Klasifikasi Sistem KLASIFIKASI SISTEM dalam TSI Dimensi Peserta Simple: a small number of elements; few interactions between the elements; attributes of element are predetermined; well-defined laws govern behavior; the system does not evolve over time; sub-systems does not pursue their goal; the system is unaffected by behavioral influences; the system is lagely closed to the environment. Pluralist a large number of elements; many interactions between the elements; attributes of the elements are not predetermined; interaction between elements is loosely organised; they are probabilistic in their behavior; the system evolves over time. A. Wahyudi Atmoko 14

15 Dimensi Sistem Unitary: they share common interests; their value & beliefs are higly compatible; they largely agree upon ends & means; they all participate in decision making; they act in accordance with agreed objectives. Pluralist they have a basic compatibility of interest; their value & beliefs diverge to some extent; they do not necessarily agree upon ends & means, but compromise is possible; they all participate in decision making; they act in accordance with agreed objectives. Coercive they do not share common interest; their value & beliefs are likely to conflict; they do not agree upon ends & means & genuine compromise is not possible; some coerce others to accept decision; no agreement over objectives is possible given systemic arrangements. A. Wahyudi Atmoko 15

16 Ragam Metode Sistem: SSM (Soft System Methodology) SD (System Dynamics) VSD (Viable System Diagnosis) TSI (Total Systems Intervention) SAST (Strategic Assumtion Surfacing and Testing) IP (Interactive Planning) CSH (Critical System Heuristics) SODA (Strategic Options Development and Analysis) Cognitive Mapping Etc. A. Wahyudi Atmoko 16

17 Peta Sistem dari Flood & Jackson UNITARY PLURALIST COERCIVE SIMPLE OR SA SE SD SSD SAST Critical systems heuristics COMPLEX VSD GST Socio Tech. Contingency theory Interactive Planning SSM? A. Wahyudi Atmoko 17

18 Penggunaan Model dalam Sistem Hitung Berapa Jumlah Umur Segitiga! Wanita dalam Gambar ini? Apa Arti Gambar ini? Fakta dalam Gambar A. Wahyudi Atmoko 18

19 Jenis Model dalam Metode Sistem 1. DEFINISI MODEL MODEL KERAS REPRESENTASI DUNIA NYATA 2. DEFINISI SOAL JELAS DENGAN TUJUAN TUNGGAL 3. PESERTA DAN ORGANISASI TIDAK DIMASUKKAN DALAM MODEL MODEL LUNAK MERANGSANG DISKUSI TENTANG INSIGHT DUNIA NYATA AMBIGUOUS (TIDAK TERLALU JELAS) DENGAN TUJUAN JAMAK BAGIAN INTEGRAL DARI MODEL A. Wahyudi Atmoko 19

20 MODEL KERAS 4. DATA KUANTATIF 5. GOAL PENDALAMAN, SOLUSI/OPTIMISASI, PREDIKSI 6. KELUARAN HASIL SIMULASI, PRODUK, REKOMENDASI MODEL LUNAK KUANTITATIF & KUALITATIF PROSES PEMBELAJARAN, PENDALAMAN KEMAJUAN MELALUI GROUP LEARNING A. Wahyudi Atmoko 20

21 3. Kapan Menggunakan SD System Dynamics: the investigation of the information-feedback characteristics of [managed] systems and the use of models for the design of improved organizational form and guiding policy (Forrester, 1961). A rigorous method for qualitative description, exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information, organizational boundaries and strategies; wich facilitates quantitative simulation modelling and analysis for design of system structure and behavior (Wolstenhome, 1990). dalam Coyle (1996: 9) A. Wahyudi Atmoko 21

22 Nature of Managerial & Social System Limitation of Traditional Management Limitation of Human Mind Different source of Information Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Limited Interplay Knowledge and Policy Debates Direct Feedback From Real Life on Policy Implementation SYSTEM DYNAMICS (Sushil, 1993) Capture Nonlinearity Dynamic Causality & Endogenous Behavior In builds Strengths of Both Traditional Mgt & Mgt Science and Complement Weakness Utilizes Strength of Human Mind & Mental Models and Complement their weakness by technology Matches Strength and weakness of multiple sources of information Portray Bounded Rationality and helps in overcoming Bounds Enrich interplay with Micro-world by providing Maps Using Feedback and Behavioral Decision Theory Intermediate Feedback about Impacts of Policies Through Simulation A. Wahyudi Atmoko 22

23 4. Langkah Pemodelan SD Metode Pemodelan External Concern Modeling is embedded in the dynamic of the system. (in single and double loops learning feedback) Effective modeling involve constant iteration between experiments and learning in the virtual world and experiments and learning in the real world John Sterman, 2000, FIG 3-2, p.88 A. Wahyudi Atmoko 23

24 Understanding of the system Policy Implementation Problem Identification & Definition Policy Analysis & Improvement System Conceptualization Simulation & Validation (Sushil, 1993) Model Formulaton A. Wahyudi Atmoko 24

25 Problem Definition Conceptual System Conseptualization Refinement Model Representation Model Behavior Technical Model Evaluation ( Richardson & Pugh, 1986) Policy Analysis & Model Use A. Wahyudi Atmoko 25

26 Contd. A. Wahyudi Atmoko 26

dokumen-dokumen yang mirip

SYSTEM DYNAMICS (Model Kuantitatif) oleh Dr. Andreo Wahyudi Atmoko, MSi.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS (Model Kuantitatif) oleh Dr. Andreo Wahyudi Atmoko, MSi. TOPIK Teorem Struktur-Graph (Pattern) Stock Flow Pengenalan Program Dr. A. Wahyudi Atmoko, MSi. 2 1. Teorem Struktur Pola Systems