1.1 Sisi Permintaan... 8 1.2 Sisi Penawaran... 11 2.1 Inflasi Berdasarkan Kelompok Pengeluaran... 17 2.1.1 Inflasi Triwulanan... 17 2.1.2 Inflasi Tahunan... 18 2.2 Inflasi Berdasarkan Disagregasi... 22 3.1 Perkembangan Bank Umum... 24 3.2 Bank Perkreditan Rakyat (BPR) Dan BPR Syariah (BPRS)... 32 4.1 Ketenagakerjaan... 35 4.2 Pengangguran... 36 4.3 Nilai Tukar Petani... 37 4.4 Tingkat Kemiskinan... 38 4.5 Upah Minimum Provinsi (UMP)... 39 5.1 Realisasi Pendapatan Daerah... 41
5.2... 42 Realisasi Belanja Daerah... 42 6.1 Outlook Kondisi Makroregional... 45 6.2 Outlook Inflasi... 46
INDIKATOR MAKRO Indeks Harga Konsumen 2011 2012 I II III IV I II III IV - Sulawesi Barat 131.34 130.74 132.64 133.85 134.57 134.99 137.56 138.24 - Sulawesi Selatan 127.68 128.49 129.87 130.39 132.89 133.44 135.69 136.14 - Sulawesi Utara 123.41 125.09 125.03 126.11 128.11 129.75 131.57 133.73 - Gorontalo 128.24 128.42 130.79 132.30 134.65 136.07 137.85 139.32 - Papua 124.05 125.03 125.38 126.97 126.38 127.28 129.07 132.71 - Irian Jaya Barat 138.81 143.73 144.65 145.42 144.28 149.64 152.64 152.79 - Maluku 129.58 133.69 132.65 131.87 137.57 142.05 142.03 140.74 - Sulawesi Tengah 129.65 130.99 132.18 134.45 135.20 137.52 141.14 142.34 - Sulawesi Tenggara 130.75 132.76 138.21 134.11 137.27 138.93 141.02 141.15 - Maluku Utara 129.80 129.17 130.62 132.51 133.20 134.74 135.68 136.78 Laju Inflasi Tahunan (yoy; %) - Sulawesi Barat 5.92 6.18 6.05 4.91 3.81 3.25 3.71 3.28 - Sulawesi Selatan 6.33 6.37 3.37 2.87 4.06 3.85 4.48 4.41 - Sulawesi Utara 3.95 5.15 1.25 0.67 0.95 3.73 5.23 6.04 - Gorontalo 6.69 7.11 3.27 4.08 5.91 5.95 5.40 5.31 - Papua 4.18 3.93 2.82 3.40 1.94 1.80 2.94 4.52 - Irian Jaya Barat 3.01 4.80 0.67 1.45 2.07 4.11 5.52 5.07 - Maluku 6.90 10.00 4.24 2.85 8.65 6.25 7.07 6.73 - Sulawesi Tengah 7.87 7.20 3.09 4.47 2.50 4.99 6.78 5.87 - Sulawesi Tenggara 6.65 7.53 7.88 5.09 5.10 4.65 2.03 5.25 - Maluku Utara 5.93 6.76 5.25 4.52 4.54 4.31 3.87 3.22 PDRB - Harga Konstan (Miliar Rp) 1. Pertanian 584.26 627.42 623.34 585.40 718.36 677.94 604.62 587.50 2. Pertambangan dan Penggalian 11.52 12.15 12.65 12.79 10.39 12.32 15.55 16.63 3. Industri Pengolahan 113.65 122.15 125.34 119.76 117.68 127.25 129.31 133.48 4. Listrik, Gas, dan Air Bersih 6.16 6.16 6.33 6.71 6.94 7.31 7.54 7.69 5. Konstruksi/Bangunan 44.55 54.33 63.35 81.66 47.86 56.44 70.09 90.52 6. Perdagangan-Hotel-Restoran 159.72 164.96 168.38 168.73 168.95 174.08 176.61 190.52 7. Angkutan dan Komunikasi 42.24 45.46 47.40 48.18 46.15 46.41 51.24 49.81 8. Keuangan,-Persewaan-Jasa 82.94 83.91 86.89 87.03 83.54 91.14 92.69 94.70 9. Jasa-Jasa 173.54 180.98 224.62 248.38 208.33 220.65 265.41 298.66 Pertumbuhan PDRB (yoy; %) 8.45 8.76 12.20 11.69 15.56 8.94 4.03 8.16
INDIKATOR 2011 2012 I II III IV I II III IV BANK UMUM Total Aset 2,548,642 2,783,569 2,869,117 3,047,843 3,089,264 3,398,697 3,578,479 3,705,973 DPK 1,672,280 1,853,667 1,863,241 1,933,791 2,091,339 2,444,567 2,598,300 2,585,000 - Giro 491,386 599,733 552,673 316,808 628,362 728,410 911,863 571,078 - Tabungan 1,045,881 1,136,697 1,188,075 1,471,274 1,293,206 1,527,637 1,526,217 1,856,608 - Deposito 135,013 117,237 122,493 145,710 169,772 188,520 160,221 157,314 Kredit-lokasi bank 2,359,425 2,558,386 2,689,783 2,781,070 2,888,791 3,095,029 3,237,469 3,363,738 - Modal Kerja 897,395 1,006,326 1,078,827 1,108,840 1,136,129 1,426,747 1,207,855 1,213,518 - Investasi 246,715 233,085 255,795 262,619 269,392 271,254 285,691 299,338 - Konsumsi 1,215,314 1,318,976 1,355,161 1,409,611 1,483,181 1,397,028 1,743,923 1,850,882 LDR (%) 141.09 138.02 144.36 143.81 138.13 126.61 124.60 130.13 Kredit UMKM 998,571 1,108,550 1,172,407 1,210,608 1,247,204 1,484,847 1,367,179 1,403,043 Kredit Mikro * 226,768 248,616 338,874 371,876 497,488 463,446 501,401 488,579 - Modal Kerja 210,025 230,049 295,005 317,454 384,444 378,290 410,519 393,991 - Investasi 16,744 18,567 43,869 54,422 95,044 85,156 90,883 94,588 Kredit Kecil ** 660,175 789,125 713,234 733,375 693,722 823,413 837,095 838,425 - Modal Kerja 486,552 611,337 558,420 573,847 537,135 672,434 620,106 648,995 - Investasi 173,624 177,788 154,814 159,529 156,586 150,978 178,658 189,430 Kredit Menengah** 111,627 70,809 120,300 105,357 73,995 197,988 67,014 76,039 - Modal Kerja 96,489 56,284 85,095 69,971 60,175 184,628 60,544 67,190 - Investasi 15,138 14,525 35,205 35,387 13,819 13,360 6,470 8,849 NPL UMKM gross (%) 7.53 7.50 8.08 7.01 7.16 6.67 6.86 4.04 BANK PERKREDITAN RAKYAT (LBPR/LBPRS) Total Aset 38,978 43,952 43,986 44,064 44,650 45,778 50,062 51,858 DPK 27,246 31,512 33,537 32,140 32,434 32,609 36,849 35,406 - Tabungan 18,452 21,275 23,376 21,672 22,252 22,395 26,757 25,697 - Deposito 8,794 10,237 10,161 10,469 10,182 10,213 10,092 9,708 Kredit 24,878 26,624 26,927 28,684 29,235 32,259 32,223 33,252 Rasio NPL gross (%) 2.41 1.73 0.50 0.47 0.57 0.54 0.63 0.58 LDR (%) 91.31 84.49 80.29 89.25 90.14 98.93 87.45 93.92
Rp Milyar 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 - PDRB ADHK (LHS) 18% y.o.y Sulbar (RHS) 16% y.o.y Nasional (RHS) 14% 12% 11.77% 8.16% 10% 8% 6% 6.11% 4% 4.03% 2% 0% 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2009 2010 2011 2012 22.04% 42.73% 5.61% 1.97% 13.52% 5.41% 7.24% 1.02% 0.46% Keterangan (searah jarum jam) : Pertanian Pertambangan & Penggalian Industri Pengolahan Listrik,Gas & Air Bersih Bangunan Perdagangan, Hotel & Rest Angkutan & Komunikasi Keuangan, Persewaan & Jasa Jasa - jasa PDRB Sulbar 2011 2012 2011 I II III IV I II III IV 2012 Pertumbuhan (%, yoy) 1. Konsumsi 7.47 24.24 26.46 28.32 21.99 15.93 8.38 7.02 9.61 9.91 - Konsumsi Rumah Tangga 7.62 6.09 8.32 8.94 7.76 8.97 8.13 4.71 3.18 6.16 - Konsumsi Pemerintah 4.70 24.89 25.75 22.84 19.93 19.27 10.38 10.84 14.37 13.41 2. Investasi (PMTB) 0.17 2.16 4.23 1.36 2.04 9.54 4.01-1.04-0.69 2.58 3. Ekspor 17.97 17.72 31.84 40.26 27.33 22.02 7.71-4.40-1.95 4.63 4. Impor 5.72 20.95 25.04 33.87 21.57 8.79 5.85 6.53 0.79 5.22 PDRB 8.45 8.76 12.20 11.69 10.32 15.56 8.94 4.03 8.16 9.01 Sumbangan (%, yoy) 1. Konsumsi 6.40 9.57 11.72 11.90 9.96 10.39 7.99 5.96 6.08 7.53 - Konsumsi Rumah Tangga 5.35 4.13 5.75 6.24 5.37 6.26 5.38 3.15 2.16 4.17 - Konsumsi Pemerintah 1.04 5.44 5.96 5.66 4.59 4.13 2.60 2.81 3.92 3.36 2. Investasi (PMTB) 0.02 0.26 0.56 0.19 0.26 1.07 0.46-0.13-0.09 0.31 3. Ekspor 2.66 2.78 5.16 6.32 4.27 3.55 1.31-0.84-0.38 0.83 4. Impor 1.20 4.20 5.02 6.90 4.39 1.80 1.30 1.46 0.19 1.17 PDRB 8.45 8.76 12.20 11.69 10.32 15.56 8.94 4.03 8.16 9.01
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 7.12% 0% 27.59% 41.84% 99.84% 8.24% 43.83% 33.75% 103.30% 7.92% 25.80% 48.04% 88.41% I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2010 2011 2012 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 95.40 94.49 102.48 100.96 99.30 102.90 110.49 102.90 I II III IV I II III IV 2011 2012 Sumber : BPS Sulbar
Rp (Miliar) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 - Kredit Investasi y.o.y (rhs) 70% 60% 50% 40% 13.98% 30% 11.69% 20% 10% 0% -10% I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2010 2011 2012 Ton Bongkar Muat yoy - kanan 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-80% 70% 37 60% 50% 40% 30% 31 20% 6.96% 4.50% 10% 0% I II III IV I II III IV Sumber : BPS Sulbar 2011 2012
PDRB Sulbar Pertumbuhan (%, yoy) 2011 2012 2011 I II III IV I II III IV 1. Pertanian 5.10 4.61 9.60 12.72 7.87 22.95 8.05-3.00 0.36 6.94 2. Pertambangan & Penggalian 36.82 29.12 8.12-12.34 11.31-9.81 1.40 22.92 30.02 11.77 3. Industri Pengolahan 18.41 13.69 18.45 11.05 15.30 3.55 4.18 3.17 11.46 5.58 4. Listrik,Gas & Air Bersih 23.69 14.50 10.28 10.00 14.23 12.66 18.67 19.12 14.61 16.25 5. Bangunan 3.89 11.35-3.18 28.05 10.42 7.43 3.88 10.64 10.85 8.62 6. Perdagangan, Hotel & Restoran 11.04 14.03 15.15 0.87 9.93 5.78 5.53 4.89 12.91 7.31 7. Angkutan & Komunikasi 16.62 20.49 9.65 6.12 12.73 9.26 2.09 8.10 3.38 5.64 8. Keuangan, Persewaan & Jasa Perusahaan 19.32 15.79-1.23-12.60 3.41 0.72 8.62 6.68 8.81 6.25 9. Jasa - jasa 4.61 8.18 27.81 28.98 17.96 20.05 21.92 18.16 20.24 20.00 P D R B 8.45 8.76 12.20 11.69 10.32 15.56 8.94 4.03 8.16 9.01 Sumbangan (%, yoy) 1. Pertanian 2.52 2.32 4.51 5.43 3.72 11.00 3.89-1.38 0.15 3.21 2. Pertambangan & Penggalian 0.28 0.23 0.08-0.15 0.11-0.09 0.01 0.21 0.28 0.11 3. Industri Pengolahan 1.57 1.23 1.61 0.98 1.35 0.33 0.39 0.29 1.01 0.51 4. Listrik,Gas & Air Bersih 0.11 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.08 5. Bangunan 0.15 0.46-0.17 1.47 0.49 0.27 0.16 0.50 0.65 0.40 6. Perdagangan, Hotel & Restoran 1.41 1.70 1.83 0.12 1.26 0.76 0.70 0.61 1.60 0.92 7. Angkutan & Komunikasi 0.54 0.65 0.34 0.23 0.44 0.32 0.07 0.28 0.12 0.20 8. Keuangan, Persewaan & Jasa Perusahaan 1.20 0.96-0.09-1.03 0.24 0.05 0.56 0.43 0.56 0.41 9. Jasa - jasa 0.68 1.15 4.04 4.59 2.66 2.85 3.06 3.00 3.70 3.16 P D R B 8.45 8.76 12.20 11.69 10.32 15.56 8.94 4.03 8.16 9.01 2012
Juta GWH 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 %, yoy CPO Coklat I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2010 2011 2012 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 - Konsumsi Listrik Pemerintah & Jalan 60% y.o.y 50% Sbr : PLN Divre VII 40% 30% 20% -1.01% 10% 0% -10% -5.33% -20% -30% -40% I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Hotel Berbintang Akomodasi Lainnya 40.87 45.63 22.63 22.26 0 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV TPK (%) 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ribu Ton Juta Rupiah Juta GWH 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Industri y.o.y I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 2009 2010 2011 2012 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 NTB Growth (yoy) 15.52% 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 30% 21.58% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 2011 2012 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Pengadaan Semen y.o.y (ka) 114.35% 45.8% I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2010 2011 2012 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50%
Juta KWH ribu Datang Pergi yoy - kanan 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2-7 6 I II III IV I II III IV 7 7 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% -11.45% 0% -20% Sumber : BPS Sulbar 2011 2012 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 - Total Konsumsi Listrik y.o.y I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 80% 60% 40% 12.13% 9.01% 20% 0% -20% -40% 2009 2010 2011 2012
PDRB Sulbar 2011 2012 2011 I II III IV I II III IV 2012 1.Konsumsi Rumah Tangga 849.61 858.83 907.02 925.26 3,540.72 925.86 928.66 949.78 954.64 3,758.94 2.Konsumsi Pemerintah 261.33 325.57 352.56 370.60 1,310.06 311.69 359.37 390.79 423.86 1,485.71 3.PMTB 136.75 149.24 167.50 171.28 624.77 149.80 155.23 165.76 170.09 640.88 4.Perubahan Stok 24.05 32.34-24.01-44.52 (12.14) 52.70 38.65-17.31-7.25 66.79 5.Ekspor 196.44 220.61 258.63 267.98 943.66 239.70 237.62 247.26 262.75 987.33 6.Impor 249.60 289.07 303.41 331.95 1,174.03 271.55 305.99 323.21 334.56 1,235.31 1,218.58 1,297.52 1,358.29 1,358.65 5,233.04 1,408.20 1,413.54 1,413.07 1,469.53 5,704.34
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 % IHK Sulbar (ka.) y.o.y - Sulbar y.o.y - Nasional Desember 2012 IHK Sulbar : 138,24 y.o.y Sulbar : 3,28% y.o.y Nasional : 4,30 % 4.91 3.79 IHK 150 137.55 138.24 140 130 4.31 4.30 120 110 3.70 3.28 100 1 90 0 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 80 2010 2011 2012 Trw III-2012 Trw IV-2012 Bahan Makanan Makanan Jadi Perumahan Sandang Kesehatan Pendidikan Transpor UMUM/TOTAL -0.06-0.35 3.33 0.97 1.42 0.04 0.69 0.59 2.38 1.98 0.82 0.05 0.94 1.90 0.49 5.75
UMUM/TOTAL Bahan Makanan Makanan Jadi Perumahan Sandang Kesehatan Pendidikan Transpor 3.70 3.28 Trw III-2012 Trw IV-2012 0.90 0.89 1.03 0.66 0.25 0.12 0.60 0.59 0.80 0.16 0.22 0.10 0.14 0.53 KETERANGAN 2010 2011 2012 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Bahan Makanan 3.45 5.63 7.61 12.56 14.18 12.77 8.02 2.05-0.31-1.47 1.46 3.34 Makanan Jadi 6.08 4.46 3.05 2.53 1.71 3.47 5.43 6.61 6.09 6.57 5.38 4.40 Perumahan 2.01 2.20 2.54 3.10 5.41 6.28 7.01 9.30 7.75 6.74 5.56 3.06 Sandang 3.19 6.62 3.98 3.41 3.07 2.64 10.61 7.98 9.02 8.05 3.68 5.18 Kesehatan 3.10 2.61 1.41 4.91 3.44 4.18 4.39 3.35 4.33 4.22 4.45 2.45 Pendidikan 2.47 1.69-0.91 4.36 6.35 7.22 10.97 4.12 3.34 2.46 5.06 6.21 Transpor 0.65 1.04 1.48 0.21-0.03 0.20-0.30 1.16 0.90 0.92 0.67 0.88 UMUM/ TOTAL 3.00 3.56 3.69 5.12 5.92 6.18 6.05 4.91 3.81 3.24 3.70 3.28
170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 IHK Inflasi yoy (kanan) 163.5 20 15 10 1.46 5 3.34 0-5 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV % SUB KELOMPOK y.o.y (%) III-2012 IV-2012 Padi-padian 9.94 9.38 Daging & Hasilnya 4.18 8.35 Ikan Segar (4.45) (2.71) Ikan Diawetkan 3.01 (9.69) Telur, Susu & Hslnya (0.57) 2.71 Sayur-sayuran (6.39) (10.06) Kacang-kacangan (5.80) 2.26 Buah-buahan 0.89 6.03 Bumbu-bumbuan 2.42 14.03 Lemak & Minyak 1.40 1.54 Bahan Makan Lainnya 1.99 2.24 Inflasi Kelompok 1.46 3.34 2009 2010 2011 2012
SUB KELOMPOK y.o.y (%) III-2012 IV-2012 Biaya Tempat Tinggal 4.50 4.27 Bhn Bkr, Penerangan & Air 13.09 0.27 Perlengkapan Rumah Tangga 1.74 2.94 Penyelenggaraan RT 1.04 2.17 Inflasi Kelompok 5.46 3.06 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 IHK Inflasi yoy (kanan) 9.30 5.46 3.06 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 - % SUB KELOMPOK y.o.y (%) III-2012 IV-2012 Makanan Jadi 2.85 1.47 Minuman Tdk Beralkohol 9.11 8.73 Tembakau & Min. Beralkohol 9.34 7.53 Inflasi Kelompok 5.75 4.40 USD/Ton 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Harga Sumber : Bloomberg yoy (kanan) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2010 2011 2012 % 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 - (10) (20) (30) 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 IHK Inflasi yoy (kanan) 6.61 5.75 4.40 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 %
SUB KELOMPOK y.o.y (%) III-2012 IV-2012 Transpor 1.93 1.01 Komunikasi & Pengiriman 0.19 0.20 Sarana & Penunjang Transpor 1.65 1.71 Jasa Keuangan 0.72 0.72 Inflasi Kelompok 1.53 0.88 SUB KELOMPOK y.o.y (%) III-2012 IV-2012 Sandang Laki-laki 2.30 3.97 Sandang Wanita 1.49 3.92 Sandang Anak-anak 2.45 7.98 Brg Pribadi & Sandang Lainnya 3.31 6.13 Inflasi Kelompok 2.41 5.18 SUB KELOMPOK y.o.y (%) III-2012 IV-2012 Jasa Pendidikan 15.13 15.42 Kursus-kursus/Pelatihan -0.01 0.00 Perlengkapan/Peralatan Pendd 0.35 0.37 Rekreasi -0.87 1.03 Olahraga 3.07 4.90 Inflasi Kelompok 5.25 6.21 SUB KELOMPOK y.o.y (%) III-2012 IV-2012 Jasa Kesehatan 12.03 5.07 Obat-obatan 0.71 (0.27) Jasa Perawatan Jasmani 8.01 7.01 Perawatan Jasmani & Kosmetika 3.00 1.99 Inflasi Kelompok 4.48 2.45
1
% 1.09 0.47 0.65 1.53 1.45 1.79 3.28 3.70 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Inflasi Umum Administered Core Volatile 3.28 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 4.41 3.25 % Total Trw IV-2012 Trw III-2012 Volatile Core Adm Price 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 -
KELEMBAGAAN 2011 2012 I II III IV I II III IV
Rp (Miliar) 4,000 3,000 Bank Pemerintah Bank Swasta Nasional y.o.y Total Aset yoy (%) 40% 30% 2,000 20% 1,000 10% - I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 0%
Rp (Miliar) Giro Tabungan Deposito DPK Giro Tabungan Deposito DPK 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 0% -40% -80% I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 20% -20% -60% I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - Giro Tabungan Deposito I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 % BI Rate Giro (ka) Tabungan (Ka) Deposito 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 2009 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012
Bank Umum Bank Umum Bank Pemerintah Bank Swasta 2011 2012 I II III IV I II III IV 1,672,280 1,853,667 1,863,241 1,933,791 2,091,339 2,444,567 2,598,300 2,585,000 491,386 599,733 552,673 316,808 628,362 728,410 911,863 571,078 1,045,881 1,136,697 1,188,075 1,471,274 1,293,206 1,527,637 1,526,217 1,856,608 135,013 117,237 122,493 145,710 169,772 188,520 160,221 157,314 1,573,067 1,752,087 1,738,443 1,778,091 1,946,958 2,290,489 2,436,789 2,389,219 485,805 596,467 548,383 310,101 622,717 719,189 903,158 554,707 968,589 1,054,910 1,087,192 1,352,603 1,177,279 1,407,614 1,400,393 1,706,162 118,673 100,711 102,868 115,386 146,962 163,686 133,238 128,349 99,213 101,580 124,797 155,701 144,382 154,078 161,511 195,782 5,581 3,266 4,290 6,707 5,644 9,221 8,705 16,371 77,292 81,787 100,883 118,670 115,927 120,023 125,824 150,445 16,340 16,527 19,624 30,323 22,810 24,834 26,983 28,965
Rp (Miliar) Modal Kerja Investasi Konsumsi Kredit Modal Kerja Investasi Konsumsi Kredit 150% 40% 30% 100% 20% 50% 0% -50% I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 22 20 18 16 14 12 Investasi Konsumsi Modal Kerja BI Rate (ka) BI Rate (%) 8 7 6 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Modal Kerja Investasi Konsumsi 10 % 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 5 - I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rp (Miliar) Modal Kerja Investasi Konsumsi Pertanian 5.0% Pertambangan 55.02% 36.08% 8.90% Jasa Sosial Masyarakat 2.0% Jasa Dunia Usaha 2.1% Lain-lain 57.7% Pengangkutan 0.2% Perdagangan 31.4% 0.1% Industri pengolahan 1.1% Konstruksi 0.5% Listrik,Gas dan Air 0.0% 3,600 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 DPK Kredit LDR (ka) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% Keterangan : Kredit berdasarkan lokasi bank pelapor Sumber : Laporan Bank Umum
Bank Umum SULAWESI BARAT Kab. Mamuju Kab. Majene Kab. Polewali Mandar Kab. Mamasa Kab. Mamuju Utara 2011 2012 Trw III Trw IV Trw I Trw II Trw III Trw IV 1,777,681 1,871,397 2,010,295 2,339,326 2,598,300 2,585,000 2,500,894 2,592,674 2,675,236 2,883,324 3,237,469 3,363,738 140.68% 138.54% 133.08% 123.25% 124.60% 130.13% 939,632 986,317 1,082,289 1,284,102 1,351,879 1,446,817 1,155,948 1,236,664 1,293,742 1,424,349 1,491,835 1,583,695 123.02% 125.38% 119.54% 110.92% 110.35% 109.46% 237,025 240,376 337,026 384,413 391,583 378,768 398,402 405,705 441,768 476,544 506,671 526,584 168.08% 168.78% 131.08% 123.97% 129.39% 139.03% 517,217 561,173 481,333 530,807 579,836 596,407 793,583 791,884 778,699 809,486 839,156 886,432 153.43% 141.11% 161.78% 152.50% 144.72% 148.63% 60,132 33,524 58,822 69,626 82,046 33,760 188,889 188,397 213,556 211,705 210,669 204,311 314.13% 561.97% 363.05% 304.06% 256.77% 605.18% 83,807 83,530 109,647 140,003 159,246 129,248 152,960 158,421 161,026 172,945 189,138 162,717 182.51% 189.66% 146.86% 123.53% 118.77% 125.90%
8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% NPL (gross) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% NPL Konsumsi NPL Investasi NPL Modal Kerja I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 SEKTOR 2011 2012 I II III IV I II III IV 2.90% 4.22% 5.15% 4.32% 6.17% 4.99% 6.63% 7.84% - - - 0.57% - - 20.68% 19.77% 1.18% 2.34% 5.75% 5.26% 5.22% 5.98% 5.75% 7.48% - - - - - - - 0.05 3.92% 80.75% 80.33% 77.90% 83.84% 81.31% 73.01% 9.54% 7.33% 7.03% 6.32% 4.95% 3.68% 3.75% 4.06% 4.06% 7.58% 0.69% 1.19% 15.02% 11.77% 4.06% 2.18% 6.13% 5.92% 6.77% 7.95% 6.97% 5.70% 7.51% 7.77% 4.09% 15.60% 2.40% 4.65% 4.84% 5.49% 3.43% 4.01% 4.93% 0.83% 0.83% 0.81% 0.79% 1.07% 0.99% 1.02% 0.94%
Rp (Miliar) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 - Kredit UMKM Share thdp total kredit I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2009 2010 2011 2012 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Sumber : Laporan Bank Umum
2011 2012 INDIKATOR I II III IV I II III IV BANK PERKREDITAN RAKYAT (LBPR/LBPRS) Total Aset 38,978 43,952 43,986 44,064 44,650 45,778 50,062 51,858 DPK 27,246 31,512 33,537 32,140 32,434 32,609 36,849 35,406 - Tabungan 18,452 21,275 23,376 21,672 22,252 22,395 26,757 25,697 - Deposito 8,794 10,237 10,161 10,469 10,182 10,213 10,092 9,708 Kredit 24,878 26,624 26,927 28,684 29,235 32,259 32,223 33,252 Rasio NPL gross (%) 2.41 1.73 0.50 0.47 0.57 0.54 0.63 0.58 LDR (%) 91.31 84.49 80.29 89.25 90.14 98.93 87.45 93.92
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8.0% 7.5% 6.1% 6.8% 10.5% 8.7% 9.4% 8.6% 13.6% 11.7% 11.4% 12.8% 14.5% 13.1% 15.9% 14.0% 13.7% 12.9% 14.1% 12.5% 11.6% 13.5% 4.2% 6.4% 6.7% 5.7% 11.9% 15.1% 6.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.0% 60.4% 61.5% 61.7% 62.2% 56.8% 58.9% 57.5% 57.3% Feb Ags Feb Ags Feb Ags Feb Ags 2009 2010 2011 2012 Pertanian Industri Perdagangan Jasa Kemasyarakatan Lainnya 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Formal Informal 77.2% 80.1% 75.7% 74.7% 22.8% 19.9% 24.3% 25.3% 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ribu Jiwa KEGIATAN UTAMA Agustus Agustus Agustus 2010 2011 2012 Penduduk Usia 15 Tahun ke Atas 744.721 763.317 781.756 Angkatan Kerja 532.171 551.631 560.762 a. Bekerja 514.867 536.048 548.783 b. Pengangguran 17.304 15.583 11.979 Bukan Angkatan Kerja 212.550 211.686 220.994 Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja 71,46% 72,27% 71,73% Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka 3,25% 2,82% 2,14% 25 20 15 10 5 - Jml Pengangguran Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka 5% 4.57% 4.51% 4% 3% 3.25% 2.82% 2% 2.14% 1% 0% Agt Agt Agt Agt Agt 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PROVINSI Agustus Agustus Agustus 2010 2011 2012 Sulawesi Utara 9,61 8,62 7,79 Sulawesi Tengah 4,61 4,01 3,93 Sulawesi Selatan 8,37 6,60 5,87 Sulawesi Tenggara 4,61 3,06 4,04 Gorontalo 5,16 4,26 4,36 Sulawesi Barat 3,25 2,82 2,14 Nasional 7,14 6,56 6,14 2
145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 IT IB NTP y.o.y I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2010 2011 2012 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% yoy : KOMPONEN 2011 2012 2012 Trw IV Trw III Trw IV y.o.y q.t.q Tanaman Pangan 89.05 88.57 88.31-0.83% -0.30% Hortikultura 84.59 85.85 85.53 1.11% -0.37% Tanaman Perkebunan Rakyat 128.17 133.10 128.12-0.04% -3.74% Peternakan 112.28 112.95 113.36 0.96% 0.36% Perikanan 105.99 106.42 106.63 0.60% 0.19% NILAI TUKAR PETANI (NTP) 103.70 104.99 104.87 1.14% -0.11% a Indeks yang Diterima (It) 137.78 142.13 142.25 3.24% 0.08% b Indeks yang Dibayar (lb) 132.87 135.38 135.64 2.08% 0.19% 3
PROVINSI 2011 2012 2012 Trw IV Trw III Trw IV y.o.y q.t.q Sulawesi Utara 104.27 101.14 101.04-3.10% -0.10% Sulawesi Tengah 98.80 97.80 97.16-1.66% -0.65% Sulawesi Selatan 108.29 108.59 108.11-0.17% -0.44% Sulawesi Tenggara 107.47 106.15 106.23-1.15% 0.08% Gorontalo 103.97 102.26 101.34-2.53% -0.90% Sulawesi Barat 103.70 104.99 104.87 1.13% -0.11% Maluku 104.80 104.92 105.70 0.86% 0.74% Maluku Utara 101.40 100.39 101.55 0.15% 1.16% Papua Barat 103.31 100.64 100.79-2.44% 0.15% Papua 102.26 102.45 101.76-0.49% -0.67% RATA-RATA SULAMPUA 103.83 102.93 102.86-0.94% -0.08% 25 20 15 19.03 16.73 15.29 13.58 13.89 13.24 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Kota Desa Total Sumber : BPS 4
Rp Ribu yoy (%) 1,400 1,200 1,000 UMP/bln Kebutuhan Hidup Layak 19.6% 909 944 1,006 1,127 1,200 25% 20% 800 670 761 12.0% 15% 600 400 200 9.5% 13.5% 3.8% 6.5% 6.5% 10% 5% - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0%
Rp Milyar No. Uraian IV- 2011 IV- 2012 Anggaran Realisasi % Realisasi Anggaran Realisasi % Realisasi 1.1 PAD 103,547.08 114,360.49 110.44% 141,047.85 140,391.97 99.53% 1.1.1 Pajak daerah 85,393.96 96,383.47 112.87% 100,993.47 119,939.74 118.76% 1.1.2 Retribusi daerah 3,134.92 2,041.88 65.13% 6,855.00 1,422.35 20.75% 1.1.3 Pendapatan Hasil Pengelolaan Kekayaan Daerah - 25.41-1.1.4 Lain-lain PAD yang sah 15,018.20 15,909.74 105.94% 33,199.38 19,029.88 57.32% 1.2 Dana Perimbangan 511,710.83 512,742.10 100.20% 663,009.28 671,146.62 101.23% 1.2.1 Dana bagi hasil pajak/bagi hasil bukan pajak 34,271.33 35,302.60 103.01% 35,542.64 43,679.98 122.89% 1.2.2 Dana alokasi umum 441,578.80 441,578.80 100.00% 590,680.36 590,680.36 100.00% 1.2.3 Dana alokasi khusus 35,860.70 35,860.70 100.00% 36,786.28 36,786.28 100.00% 1.3 Lain-lain Pendapatan yang Sah 109,028.80 91,818.08 84.21% 154,971.42 148,013.63 95.51% 1.3.1 Pendapatan Hibah 585.00 1.3.2 Dana Bagi hasil pajak dari Prov. & Pemda Lainnya 1.3.3 Dana penyesuaian dan otonomi khusus 109,028.80 91,818.08 154,386.42 147,486.01 1.3.4 Lain-lain pendapatan yang sah 527.61 1 Total Pendapatan 724,286.71 718,920.67 99.26% 959,028.55 959,552.21 100.05% 2.1 Belanja Tidak Langsung 224,639.11 227,996.10 101.49% 381,013.96 330,819.51 86.83% 2.1.1 Belanja Pegawai 108,801.19 99,194.82 91.17% 150,219.92 129,361.95 86.12% 2.1.4 Belanja Hibah 67,438.58 86,010.08 127.54% 162,785.22 149,779.47 92.01% 2.1.5 Belanja Bantuan sosial 7,516.35 4,384.47 58.33% 7,125.26 56.50 0.79% 2.1.6 Belanja Bagi hasil kpd Prop/Kab/Kota dan Pemdes 35,105.00 35,104.57 100.00% 47,000.00 44,733.37 95.18% 2.1.7 Belanja Bantuan keuangan kpd Prop/Kab/Kota dan Pemdes 3,778.00 3,011.50 79.71% 10,990.20 6,314.85 57.46% 2.1.8 Belanja tidak terduga 2,000.00 290.65 14.53% 2,893.37 573.37 19.82% 2.2 Belanja Langsung 551,368.08 503,178.32 91.26% 606,882.19 542,582.97 89.40% 2.2.1 Belanja Pegawai 63,752.09 60,622.73 95.09% 81,952.89 75,395.65 92.00% 2.2.2 Belanja Barang dan jasa 247,333.30 211,863.84 85.66% 368,499.42 329,051.46 89.29% 2.2.3 Belanja Modal 240,282.69 230,691.75 96.01% 156,429.88 138,135.86 88.31% 2 Total Belanja 776,007.19 731,174.42 94.22% 987,896.15 873,402.48 88.41% 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 - Nominal g. yoy 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 2009 2010 2011 2012 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%
Kajian Ekonomi Regional Sulawesi Barat Triwulan III - 2012
Bab 6 - Outlook Kondisi Ekonomi
Kajian Ekonomi Regional Sulawesi Barat Triwulan III - 2012