LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Penawaran Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Tahun X P PD PI (Ton) (Ton) (Rp/Kg) (US$/Ton) 2000 28427 45718 8042 990 2001 28053 49566 8042 80 2002 340 49690 12392 1873 2003 25798 48190 12882 34 2004 33622 48084 138 71 2005 34418 53734 11041 57 2006 39523 58949 11402 1867 2007 46594 64782 14562 2516 2008 47821 60253 10660 2599 2009 516 67341 25892 3246 2010 51402 63425 23756 3105 2011 32609 545 23663 2396 2012 29505 36188 21314 2359 2013 30023 31789 23196 3009 2014 9796 33386 33379 3048 Total 523122 765610 251761 33250 Rata-Rata 34874.8 51040.7 16784.1 2216.7
Lampiran 2. Permintaan Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara ke Malaysia Tahun XM C PI GDP ER (Ton) (Ton) (US$/Ton) (US$) (Rp/US$) 2000 4455 139443 990 4005 121 2001 3906 138616 80 3879 16969 2002 161 117586 1873 4133 13992 2003 14576 167595 34 4431 12374 2004 16725 229649 71 4925 12446 2005 18809 258647 57 5564 12657 2006 19173 270261 1867 6195 10892 2007 21498 310001 2516 7241 10516 2008 28520 323653 2599 8487 10554 2009 24505 279228 3246 7312 10751 2010 25612 302366 3105 9069 9090 2011 18233 299271 2396 10428 8587 2012 17585 299525 2359 10835 8994 2013 22295 285608 3009 10974 9557 2014 8521 244423 3048 11307 10358 Total 255974 3665872 33250 108785 172858 Rata-Rata 17064.9 244391.5 2216.7 7252.3 123.9
Lampiran 3. Proyeksi Penawaran Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Hingga Tahun 2020 Tahun X 1 X 2 X 3 Y 2000 45718 8042 990 28427 2001 49566 8042 80 28053 2002 49690 12392 1873 340 2003 48190 12882 34 25798 2004 48084 138 71 33622 2005 53734 11041 57 34418 2006 58949 11402 1867 39523 2007 64782 14562 2516 46594 2008 60253 10660 2599 47821 2009 67341 25892 3246 516 2010 63425 23756 3105 51402 2011 545 23663 2396 32609 2012 36188 21314 2359 29505 2013 31789 23196 3009 30023 2014 33386 33379 3048 9796 20 46451 28831 3290 33829 2016 45877 30337 3424 33698 2017 45303 31842 3558 33568 2018 44729 33348 3693 33448 2019 445 34854 3827 33317 2020 43582 36360 3961 33186 Y -8406.218 + 0.627X 1 0.921X 2 + 12.056X 3
Lampiran 4. Proyeksi Permintaan Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Ke Malaysia Hingga Tahun 2020 Tahun X 1 X 2 X 3 X 4 Y 2000 139443 990 4005 121 4455 2001 138616 80 3879 16969 3906 2002 117586 1873 4133 13992 161 2003 167595 34 4431 12374 14576 2004 229649 71 4925 12446 16725 2005 258647 57 5564 12657 18809 2006 270261 1867 6195 10892 19173 2007 310001 2516 7241 10516 21498 2008 323653 2599 8487 10554 28520 2009 279228 3246 7312 10751 24505 2010 302366 3105 9069 9090 25612 2011 299271 2396 10428 8587 18233 2012 299525 2359 10835 8994 17585 2013 285608 3009 10974 9557 22295 2014 244423 3048 11307 10358 8521 20 340561 3290 12092 7748 23697 2016 352582 3424 12697 7276 24539 2017 364609 3558 13302 6804 25381 2018 376624 3693 13907 6332 26227 2019 388645 3827 14512 5860 27069 2020 400666 3961 117 5387 27912 Y 26927.877 + 0.078X 1 + 4.476X 2 2.540X 3 1.782X 4
Lampiran 5. Perhitungan Proyeksi Produksi Kakao Sumatera Utara No. Tahun X Y 1 (Ton) XY X 2 1 2000-7 45718-320026 49 2 2001-6 49566-297396 36 3 2002-5 49690-248450 25 4 2003-4 48190-192760 16 5 2004-3 48084-144252 9 6 2005-2 53734-107468 4 7 2006-1 58949-58949 1 8 2007 0 64782 0 0 9 2008 1 60253 60253 1 10 2009 2 67341 134682 4 11 2010 3 63425 190275 9 12 2011 4 545 218060 16 13 2012 5 36188 180940 25 14 2013 6 31789 190734 36 2014 7 33386 233702 49 Total 0 765610-160655 280 Rata-Rata 0 51040.7-10710.3 18.7 nn XXXX XX YY nn XX 2 (XX) 2 ( 160655 ) 0 (765610 ) (280) 0 2409825 4200 b (YY) bb (XX) a - 573.77 51040.67 nn 765610 ( 573.77)(0) 765610 Persamaan trend linier : Y 1 a + bx Y 1 51040.67 573.77X
Lampiran 6. Proyeksi Produksi Kakao Sumatera Utara Hingga Tahun 2020 No. Tahun X Produksi Kakao Sumatera Utara 1 2000-7 45718 2 2001-6 49566 3 2002-5 49690 4 2003-4 48190 5 2004-3 48084 6 2005-2 53734 7 2006-1 58949 8 2007 0 64782 9 2008 1 60253 10 2009 2 67341 11 2010 3 63425 12 2011 4 545 13 2012 5 36188 14 2013 6 31789 2014 7 33386 16 20 8 46451 17 2016 9 45877 18 2017 10 45303 19 2018 11 44729 20 2019 12 445 21 2020 13 43582
Lampiran 7. Perhitungan Proyeksi Harga Domestik Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara No. Tahun X Y 2 (Ton) XY X 2 1 2000-7 8042-56294 49 2 2001-6 8042-48252 36 3 2002-5 12392-61960 25 4 2003-4 12882-528 16 5 2004-3 138-34614 9 6 2005-2 11041-22082 4 7 2006-1 11402-11402 1 8 2007 0 14562 0 0 9 2008 1 10660 10660 1 10 2009 2 25892 51784 4 11 2010 3 23756 71268 9 12 2011 4 23663 94652 16 13 2012 5 21314 106570 25 14 2013 6 23196 139176 36 2014 7 33379 233653 49 Total 0 251761 421631 280 Rata-Rata 0 16784.1 28108.7 18.7 b nn XXXX XX YY nn XX 2 (XX) 2 (421631 ) 0 (251761 ) (280) 0 6324465 4200 (YY) bb (XX) a nn 251761 (05.83)(0) 251761 05.83 16784.1 Persamaan trend linier: Y 2 a + bx Y 2 16784.1 + 05.83X
Lampiran 8. Proyeksi Harga Domestik Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Hingga Tahun 2020 No. Tahun X Harga Domestik Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara 1 2000-7 8042 2 2001-6 8042 3 2002-5 12392 4 2003-4 12882 5 2004-3 138 6 2005-2 11041 7 2006-1 11402 8 2007 0 14562 9 2008 1 10660 10 2009 2 25892 11 2010 3 23756 12 2011 4 23663 13 2012 5 21314 14 2013 6 23196 2014 7 33379 16 20 8 28831 17 2016 9 30337 18 2017 10 31842 19 2018 11 33348 20 2019 12 34854 21 2020 13 36360
Lampiran 9. Perhitungan Proyeksi Harga Internasional Biji Kakao No. Tahun X Y 3 (Ton) XY X 2 1 2000-7 990-6930 49 2 2001-6 80-9480 36 3 2002-5 1873-9365 25 4 2003-4 34-6136 16 5 2004-3 71-4713 9 6 2005-2 57-3114 4 7 2006-1 1867-1867 1 8 2007 0 2516 0 0 9 2008 1 2599 2599 1 10 2009 2 3246 6492 4 11 2010 3 3105 93 9 12 2011 4 2396 9584 16 13 2012 5 2359 11795 25 14 2013 6 3009 18054 36 2014 7 3048 21336 49 Total 0 33250 37570 280 Rata-Rata 0 2216.7 2504.7 18.7 b nn XXXX XX YY nn XX 2 (XX) 2 (37570 ) 0 (33250 ) (280) 0 563550 4200 (YY) bb (XX) a nn 33250 (134.18)(0) 33250 134.18 2216.67 Persamaan trend linier: Y 3 a + bx Y 3 2216.67 + 134.18X
Lampiran 10. Proyeksi Harga Internasional Biji Kakao Hingga Tahun 2020 No. Tahun X Harga Internasional Biji Kakao 1 2000-7 990 2 2001-6 80 3 2002-5 1873 4 2003-4 34 5 2004-3 71 6 2005-2 57 7 2006-1 1867 8 2007 0 2516 9 2008 1 2599 10 2009 2 3246 11 2010 3 3105 12 2011 4 2396 13 2012 5 2359 14 2013 6 3009 2014 7 3048 16 20 8 3290 17 2016 9 3424 18 2017 10 3558 19 2018 11 3693 20 2019 12 3827 21 2020 13 3961
Lampiran 11. Perhitungan Proyeksi Konsumsi Biji Kakao Malaysia No. Tahun X Y 4 (Ton) XY X 2 1 2000-7 139443-6930 49 2 2001-6 138616-9480 36 3 2002-5 117586-9365 25 4 2003-4 167595-6136 16 5 2004-3 229649-4713 9 6 2005-2 258647-3114 4 7 2006-1 270261-1867 1 8 2007 0 310001 0 0 9 2008 1 323653 2599 1 10 2009 2 279228 6492 4 11 2010 3 302366 93 9 12 2011 4 299271 9584 16 13 2012 5 299525 11795 25 14 2013 6 285608 18054 36 2014 7 244423 21336 49 Total 0 3665872 37570 280 Rata-Rata 0 244391.5 2504.7 18.7 b nn XXXX XX YY nn XX 2 (XX) 2 (3365916 ) 0 (3665872 ) (280) 0 50488740 4200 (YY) bb (XX) a nn 3665872 12021.13(0) 3665872 12021.13 244391.5 Persamaan trend linier : Y 4 a + bx Y 4 244391.5 + 12021.13X
Lampiran 12. Proyeksi Konsumsi Biji Kakao Malaysia Hingga Tahun 2020 No. Tahun X Konsumsi Biji Kakao Malaysia 1 2000-7 139443 2 2001-6 138616 3 2002-5 117586 4 2003-4 167595 5 2004-3 229649 6 2005-2 258647 7 2006-1 270261 8 2007 0 310001 9 2008 1 323653 10 2009 2 279228 11 2010 3 302366 12 2011 4 299271 13 2012 5 299525 14 2013 6 285608 2014 7 244423 16 20 8 340561 17 2016 9 352582 18 2017 10 364609 19 2018 11 376624 20 2019 12 388645 21 2020 13 400666
Lampiran 13. Perhitungan Proyeksi GDP Per Kapita Malaysia No. Tahun X Y 5 (Ton) XY X 2 1 2000-7 4005-28035 49 2 2001-6 3879-23274 36 3 2002-5 4133-20665 25 4 2003-4 4431-17724 16 5 2004-3 4925-14775 9 6 2005-2 5564-11128 4 7 2006-1 6195-6195 1 8 2007 0 7241 0 0 9 2008 1 8487 8487 1 10 2009 2 7312 14624 4 11 2010 3 9069 27207 9 12 2011 4 10428 41712 16 13 2012 5 10835 54175 25 14 2013 6 10974 65844 36 2014 7 11307 79149 49 Total 0 108785 169402 280 Rata-Rata 0 7252.3 11293.5 18.7 b nn XXXX XX YY nn XX 2 (XX) 2 (169402 ) 0 (108785 ) (280) 0 2541030 4200 (YY) bb (XX) a nn 108785 (605.01)(0) 108785 605.01 7252.3 Persamaan trend linier: Y 5 a + bx Y 5 7252.3 + 605.01X
Lampiran 14. Proyeksi GDP Per Kapita Malaysia Hingga Tahun 2020 No. Tahun X GDP Per Kapita Malaysia 1 2000-7 4005 2 2001-6 3879 3 2002-5 4133 4 2003-4 4431 5 2004-3 4925 6 2005-2 5564 7 2006-1 6195 8 2007 0 7241 9 2008 1 8487 10 2009 2 7312 11 2010 3 9069 12 2011 4 10428 13 2012 5 10835 14 2013 6 10974 2014 7 11307 16 20 8 12092 17 2016 9 12697 18 2017 10 13302 19 2018 11 13907 20 2019 12 14512 21 2020 13 117
Lampiran. Perhitungan Proyeksi Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah Terhadap Dollar No. Tahun X Y 6 (Ton) XY X 2 1 2000-7 121-105847 49 2 2001-6 16969-101814 36 3 2002-5 13992-69960 25 4 2003-4 12374-49496 16 5 2004-3 12446-37338 9 6 2005-2 12657-25314 4 7 2006-1 10892-10892 1 8 2007 0 10516 0 0 9 2008 1 10554 10554 1 10 2009 2 10751 202 4 11 2010 3 9090 27270 9 12 2011 4 8587 34348 16 13 2012 5 8994 44970 25 14 2013 6 9557 57342 36 2014 7 10358 72506 49 Total 0 172858-132169 280 Rata-Rata 0 123.9-8811.3 18.7 b nn XXXX XX YY nn XX 2 (XX) 2 ( 132169 ) 0 (172858 ) (280) 0 1982535 4200 (YY) bb (XX) a nn 172858 ( 472.03)(0) 172858-472.03 123.87 Persamaan trend linier: Y 5 a + bx Y 5 123.87 472.03X
Lampiran 16. Proyeksi Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah Terhadap Dollar Hingga Tahun 2020 No. Tahun X Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah Terhadap Dollar 1 2000-7 121 2 2001-6 16969 3 2002-5 13992 4 2003-4 12374 5 2004-3 12446 6 2005-2 12657 7 2006-1 10892 8 2007 0 10516 9 2008 1 10554 10 2009 2 10751 11 2010 3 9090 12 2011 4 8587 13 2012 5 8994 14 2013 6 9557 2014 7 10358 16 20 8 7748 17 2016 9 7276 18 2017 10 6804 19 2018 11 6332 20 2019 12 5860 21 2020 13 5387
Lampiran 17. Hasil Estimasi SPSS Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Penawaran Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Descriptive Statistics N Minimum Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation X 9796.00 516.00 523122.00 34874.8000 11135.84613 P 31789.00 67341.00 765610.00 51040.6667 11105.80354 PD 8042.00 33379.00 251761.00 16784.0667 7723.72645 PI 990.00 3246.00 33250.00 2216.6667 703.27181 Valid N (listwise) Descriptive Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N X 34874.8000 11135.84613 P 51040.6667 11105.80354 PD 16784.0667 7723.72645 PI 2216.6667 703.27181 Correlations X P PD PI Pearson Correlation X 1.000.852 -.5.298 P.852 1.000 -.231.103 PD -.5 -.231 1.000.826 PI.298.103.826 1.000 Sig. (1-tailed) X..000.291.141 P.000..203.358 PD.291.203..000 PI.141.358.000. N X P PD PI Model Variables Entered/Removed Variables Entered Variables Removed 1 PI, P, PD a. Enter a. All requested variables entered. Method Model R R Square Model Summary b Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1.927 a.859.820 4725.40683 1.872 a. Predictors: (Constant), PI, P, PD b. Dependent Variable: X
ANOVA b Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 1.490E9 3 4.968E8 22.250.000 a Residual 2.456E8 11 2.233E7 Total 1.736E9 14 a. Predictors: (Constant), PI, P, PD b. Dependent Variable: X Model Coefficients a Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) -8406.218 7293.951-1.2.274 P.627.139.626 4.529.001 PD -.921.352 -.639-2.619.024 PI 12.056 3.779.761 3.191.009 a. Dependent Variable: X Coefficients a Collinearity Statistics Model Tolerance VIF 1 P.674 1.484 PD.216 4.629 PI.226 4.427 a. Dependent Variable: X
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test Unstandardized Residual N Normal Parameters a,,b Mean.0000000 Std. Deviation 4.18862547E3 Most Extreme Differences Absolute.135 a. Test distribution is Normal. b. Calculated from data. Positive.076 Negative -.135 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z.523 Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed).947
Lampiran 18. Hasil Estimasi SPSS Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Permintaan Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Ke Malaysia Descriptive Statistics N Minimum Maximum Sum Mean Std. Deviation XM 3906.00 28520.00 255974.00 17064.9333 7355.86307 C 117586.00 323653.00 3665872.00 244391.4667 69786.23092 PI 990.00 3246.00 33250.00 2216.6667 703.27181 GDP 3879.00 11307.00 108785.00 7252.3333 2765.08162 ER 8587.00 16969.00 172858.00 123.8667 2400.40946 Valid N (listwise) Descriptive Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N XM 17064.9333 7355.86307 C 244391.4667 69786.23092 PI 2216.6667 703.27181 GDP 7252.3333 2765.08162 ER 123.8667 2400.40946 Correlations XM C PI GDP ER Pearson Correlation XM 1.000.828.608.441 -.726 C.828 1.000.685.749 -.869 PI.608.685 1.000.796 -.739 GDP.441.749.796 1.000 -.857 ER -.726 -.869 -.739 -.857 1.000 Sig. (1-tailed) XM..000.008.050.001 C.000..002.001.000 PI.008.002..000.001 GDP.050.001.000..000 ER.001.000.001.000. N XM C PI GDP ER Model Variables Entered/Removed Variables Entered Variables Removed 1 ER, PI, C, GDP a. Enter a. All requested variables entered. Method
Model R R Square Model Summary b Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Durbin-Watson 1.937 a.878.829 3043.81281 2.629 a. Predictors: (Constant), ER, PI, C, GDP b. Dependent Variable: XM ANOVA b Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 6.649E8 4 1.662E8 17.941.000 a Residual 9.265E7 10 9264796.431 Total 7.575E8 14 a. Predictors: (Constant), ER, PI, C, GDP b. Dependent Variable: XM Model Coefficients a Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) 26927.877 16961.544 1.588.143 C.078.024.744 3.296.008 PI 4.476 1.961.428 2.283.046 GDP -2.540.646 -.955-3.930.003 ER -1.782.883 -.581-2.019.071 a. Dependent Variable: XM Model Coefficients a Collinearity Statistics Tolerance VIF 1 C.240 4.167 PI.348 2.874 GDP.207 4.825 ER.147 6.781 a. Dependent Variable: XM
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test Unstandardized Residual N Normal Parameters a,,b Mean.0000000 Std. Deviation 2.57249135E3 Most Extreme Differences Absolute.131 a. Test distribution is Normal. b. Calculated from data. Positive.120 Negative -.131 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z.507 Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed).959