Lampiran 1., Produksi dan Produktivitas Buah Manggis Menurut Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara NO KABUPATEN/KOTA Produksi (Ton) TAHUN 2005 2006 2007 2008 Produktivitas Produksi Produktivitas Produksi Produktivitas Produksi (Ton/Ha) (Ton) (Ton/Ha) (Ton) (Ton/Ha) (Ton) Produktivitas (Ton/Ha) 1 Nias 27 179 6,62962963 14 93 6,642857143 7 108 15,49423729 31 445 14,46584191 2 Mandailing Natal 305 2.291 7,51147541 400 3.005 7,5125 185 1.626 8,770067623 14 137 9,963439195 3 Tapanuli Selatan 162 1.559 9,62345679 976 9.392 9,62295082 382 1.694 4,431099746 262 1.352 5,152440554 4 Tapanuli Tengah 191 1.550 8,115183246 374 3.035 8,114973262 251 2.768 11,02626903 8 77 10,22576361 5 Tapanuli Utara 20 77 3,85 20 77 3,85 6 33 5,97826087 15 170 11,01027548 6 Toba Samosir - - - - - - 1 1.626 1625,795136 0,25 6 22,79830538 7 Labuhan Batu 20 70 3,5 20 70 3,5 14 69 5,084745763 9 118 12,74298056 8 Asahan 14 55 3,928571429 20 79 3,95 6 145 25,80932585 23 215 9,347826087 9 Simalungun 20 258 12,9 20 258 12,9 - - - - - - 10 Dairi 67 342 5,104477612 29 148 5,103448276 20 248 12,53302473 11 141 12,54476319 11 Karo - - - - - - - - - 31 231 7,517965056 12 Deli Serdang 62 427 6,887096774 62 427 6,887096774 41 492 12,14366953 162 2.978 18,39245688 13 Langkat 48 442 9,208333333 91 801 8,802197802 24 799 33,30931148 91 1.957 21,44535738 14 Nias Selatan - - - - - - 3 33 9,565604729 - - - 15 H. Hasundutan 6 40 6,666666667 2 13 6,5 3 36 11,41855843 5 92 18,40269542 16 Pakpak Barat 10 51 5,1 10 51 5,1 - - - - - - 17 Samosir - - - - - - - - - - - - 18 Serdang Bedagai 54 338 6,259259259 62 388 6,258064516 20 286 14,56629497 20 333 17,02137109 19 Batubara - - - - - - - - - - - - 20 Pd. Lawas Utara - - - - - - - - - 17 155 9,117029095 21 Padang Lawas - - - - - - - - - 89 493 5,575843299 22 Lab. Batu Selatan - - - - - - - - - - - - 23 Lab. Batu Utara - - - - - - - - - - - - 24 Nias Utara - - - - - - - - - - - - 81
25 Nias Barat - - - - - - - - - - - - 26 Tanjung Balai 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 13 13 - - - 27 Pematang Siantar 1 6 6 1 6 6 - - - 0,45 4 8,888888889 28 Tebing Tinggi 2 9 4,5 2 9 5 - - - 7 65 9,18079096 29 Medan 4 37 9,25 3 28 9 1 32 31,73551275 3 28 10,6385115 30 Binjai 16 118 7,375 11 81 7 8 111 13,84783186 8 163 19,34629664 31 P. Sidempuan 24 120 5 26 130 5 13 119 9,173787081 15 227 14,7476456 32 Gunung Sitoli - - - - - - - - - - - - J u m l a h 1.054 7.971 129 2.144 18.093 129 985 10.237 1.864 822 9.387 269 82
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NO KABUPATEN/KOTA TAHUN 2009 2010 2011 2012 Produktivitas Produksi Produktivitas Produksi Produktivitas Produksi (Ton/Ha) (Ton) (Ton/Ha) (Ton) (Ton/Ha) (Ton) Produksi (Ton) Produktivitas (Ton/Ha) 1 Nias 14 93 6,642857143 5,00 5,00 1 4,15 8,50 2,048192771 3,7 23,7 6,40540541 2 Mandailing Natal 14 312 22,28571429 40,01 559,60 13,9865034 32,82 656,60 20,00609385 7,0 97,1 13,8714286 3 Tapanuli Selatan 107 550 5,140186916 59,75 640,10 10,7129707 265,31 1.949,80 7,349138743 131,9 1.561,9 11,8442405 4 Tapanuli Tengah 252 3.605 14,30555556 252,94 1.857,20 7,34245276 104,41 974,80 9,336270472 110,6 975,0 8,81475454 5 Tapanuli Utara 253 1.173 4,636363636 7,73 115,70 14,9676585 19,10 62,30 3,261780105 26,1 306,1 11,7279693 6 Toba Samosir 16 120 7,5 0,75 1,80 2,4 - - - 3,5 33,5 9,57142857 7 Labuhan Batu 2 8 4 0,60 7,00 11,6666667 15,07 47,80 3,171864632 11,9 101,0 8,46605197 8 Asahan 35 338 9,657142857 19,92 99,80 5,01004016 28,76 148,50 5,163421419 26,7 298,5 11,1881559 9 Simalungun 7 20 2,857142857 12,89 160,70 12,4670287 3,00 75,50 25,16666667 17,1 313,2 18,3479789 10 Dairi 27 270 10 1,00 8,30 8,3 20,70 198,90 9,608695652 20,4 223,8 10,9705882 11 Karo 21 519 24,71428571 0,10 1,10 11 2,00 10,00 5 6,5 36,1 5,59689922 12 Deli Serdang 1 10 10 175,80 2.274,80 12,9397042 239,28 2.959,80 12,36960883 492,5 4.820,1 9,78700508 13 Langkat 105 1.653 15,74285714 34,95 702,10 20,0886981 25,04 516,40 20,62300319 142,6 2.691,2 18,8750175 14 Nias Selatan 10 140 14 28,12 66,10 2,35064011 - - - 26,9 569,4 21,1515602 15 H. Hasundutan - - - 0,71 5,60 7,88732394 0,76 7,30 9,605263158 0,8 6,2 8,15789474 16 Pakpak Barat 2 20 10 - - - - - - - - - 17 Samosir - - - - - - - - - - - - 18 Serdang Bedagai - - - 29,14 604,50 20,7446809 12,68 124,90 9,850157729 21,1 253,9 12,0617577 19 Batubara 41 556 13,56097561 2,37 45,80 19,3248945 1,15 5,80 5,043478261 1,0 10,1 10,1 20 Pd. Lawas Utara - - - 16,51 145,80 8,83101151 15,47 139,20 8,998060763 25,2 251,2 9,98013508 21 Padang Lawas 0,15 1 6,666666667 51,50 41,20 0,8 79,90 1.137,50 14,23654568 41,6 179,9 4,32451923 22 Lab. Batu Selatan 48 279 5,8125 1,40 3,00 2,14285714 2,25 30,40 13,51111111 1,4 46,0 32,8571429 23 Lab. Batu Utara - - - 0,05 1,30 26 0,05 0,60 12 - - - 24 Nias Utara - - - 1,14 1,50 1,31578947 1,14 1,30 1,140350877 1,2 4,7 4,08695652 25 Nias Barat - - - 0,89 2,40 2,69662921 0,89 2,20 2,471910112 2,0 4,7 2,37373737 26 Tanjung Balai - - - 0,05 0,30 6 - - - 0,2 1,4 7 27 Pematang Siantar 0,08 2 25 0,40 6,50 16,25 0,39 1,80 4,615384615 0,4 0,9 2,57142857 84
28 Tebing Tinggi 0,45 2 4,444444444 - - - 4,00 3,60 0,9 4,0 48,1 11,9059406 29 Medan - - - 3,03 84,10 27,7557756 9,45 114,70 12,13756614 2,5 48,0 19,5918367 30 Binjai 2 19 9,5 8,73 66,80 7,65177549 5,35 36,70 6,859813084 7,4 117,2 15,8378378 31 P. Sidempuan 6 137 22,83333333 12,72 202,90 15,9512579 3,75 34,00 9,066666667 8,9 29,5 3,32581736 32 Gunung Sitoli 13 222 17,07692308 7,19 39,00 5,42420028 28,24 82,70 2,928470255 22,5 129,4 5,76135352 J u m l a h 963 9.956 260 606,69 7.750 303,008559 767,31 9.331,60 236,469515 984,4 13.181,8 316,554842 85
NO KABUPATEN/KOTA TAHUN 2013 2014 Produksi Produktivitas Produksi Produktivitas (Ton) (Ton/Ha) (Ton) (Ton/Ha) 1 Nias 8,3 78,1 9,46666667 15,1 111,4 7,3872679 2 Mandailing Natal 167,1 1.358,1 8,12698223 9,5 136,3 14,3928194 3 Tapanuli Selatan 85,1 1.515,5 17,8063682 68,7 1.778,8 25,8922853 4 Tapanuli Tengah 121,4 2.089,9 17,2135738 51,5 812,8 15,7825243 5 Tapanuli Utara 23,5 158,4 6,72897196 28,0 272,4 9,72857143 6 Toba Samosir 3,2 24,6 7,6875 3,5 18,9 5,4 7 Labuhan Batu 11,9 109,7 9,21848739 13,8 43,2 3,13953488 8 Asahan 26,1 273,5 10,4749138 33,3 290,7 8,73235206 9 Simalungun 5,9 86,9 14,7038917 7,5 160,4 21,3866667 10 Dairi 2,7 25,8 9,73584906 5,5 42,0 7,63636364 11 Karo 6,0 12,5 2,08333333 15,5 80,5 5,19354839 12 Deli Serdang 199,4 3.041,8 15,2524695 223,6 3.595,8 16,0849922 13 Langkat 61,2 2.190,3 35,7775237 130,9 1.951,6 14,9045364 14 Nias Selatan 3,3 5,5 1,69230769 21,7 94,0 4,32780847 15 H. Hasundutan 3,8 4,1 1,07894737 7,0 21,0 3 16 Pakpak Barat - - - - - - 17 Samosir - - - - - - 18 Serdang Bedagai 23,8 436,1 18,3466554 7,9 96,5 12,2617535 19 Batubara 0,5 4,4 8,8 0,1 0,9 9 20 Pd. Lawas Utara 24,0 251,0 10,4583333 16,0 95,0 5,9375 21 Padang Lawas 29,5 279,8 9,48474576 70,3 623,0 8,86454183 86
22 Lab. Batu Selatan - - - 2,0 2,0 1 23 Lab. Batu Utara 0,3 1,9 6,33333333 0,3 0,5 1,66666667 24 Nias Utara 1,0 10,0 10 1,6 16,0 10,1265823 25 Nias Barat 1,5 21,6 14,8965517 1,3 14,6 11,5873016 26 Tanjung Balai 0,2 1,5 10 0,7 7,5 10,5633803 27 Pematang Siantar 0,1 0,1 2 0,1 0,6 12 28 Tebing Tinggi 6,0 180,5 29,884106 60,0 312,2 5,20333333 29 Medan 3,0 38,8 12,9333333 0,9 10,0 10,7526882 30 Binjai 5,5 67,0 12,1818182 8,0 150,5 18,8596491 31 P. Sidempuan 7,5 31,4 4,18666667 8,2 28,7 3,52147239 32 Gunung Sitoli 8,6 36,7 4,27738928 21,4 102,1 4,77549111 J u m l a h 791,9 12.335,5 320,83072 623,6 10.869,9 289,109631 87
Lampiran 2. Data Nilai Ekspor Manggis Sumatera Utara, GDP China, Nilai Tukar Nominal, Volume Ekspor, Harga Ekspor Manggis Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2005-2014. Tahun Nilai Ekspor US $ GDP China US $ Nilai Tukar Nominal Rp/$ Volume Ekspor (Kg) Harga Ekspor Manggis US $ 2005 84.373 1.280,60 9.165 78.561 0,27 2006 337.231 3.441,20 9.020 351.701 0,3 2007 57.513 2.673,30 9.054 178.552 0,35 2008 406.008 2.082,20 9.153 867.033 0,4 2009 349.461 3.800,50 9.400 822.234 0,42 2010 155.030 4.514,90 8.924 261.739 0,52 2011 836.819 5.574,20 8.574 1.408.067 0,52 2012 383.183 6.264,60 9.000 487.761 0,6 2013 270.352 6.991,90 9.667 443.874 0,61 2014 319.320 7.590,00 11.591 404.571 0,67 Lampiran 3. Data Nilai Ekspor Manggis Sumatera Utara, GDP China, Nilai Tukar Nominal, Volume Ekspor, Harga Ekspor Manggis Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2005-2014 Setelah Ditransformasi. Tahun Nilai Ekspor (Rp) GDP China (Rp) Nilai Tukar Nominal Rp/$ Volume Ekspor (Kg) Harga Ekspor Manggis Rp/Kg 2005 773278545 11736699 9.165 78.561 2474,55 2006 3041823620 31039624 9.020 351.701 2706 2007 520722702 24204058,2 9.054 178.552 3168,9 2008 3716191224 19058376,6 9.153 867.033 3661,2 2009 3284933400 35724700 9.400 822.234 3948 2010 1383487720 40290967,6 8.924 261.739 4640,48 2011 7174886106 47793190,8 8.574 1.408.067 4458,48 2012 3448647000 56381400 9.000 487.761 5400 2013 2613492784 67590697,3 9.667 443.874 5896,87 2014 3701238120 87975690 11.591 404.571 7765,97 88
Lampiran 4. Data Harga Ekspor Manggis dan Harga Domestik Manggis Tingkat Petani di Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Tahun 2005-2014 Tahun Harga Ekspor Manggis (Rp/Kg) Harga Domestik Manggis Tingkat Petani (Rp/Kg) 2005 2474,55 1484,73 2006 2706 1623,6 2007 3168,9 1901,34 2008 3661,2 2196,72 2009 3948 2368,8 2010 4640,48 2784,288 2011 4458,48 2853,4272 2012 5400 3456 2013 5896,87 3773,9968 2014 7765,97 4970,2208 Lampiran 5a. Tabel Summary Regresi Linier Berganda Model Summary b Adjusted R Std. Error of the Model R R Square Square Estimate Durbin-Watson 1,964 a,929,873 6,77723E8 2,596 a. Predictors: (Constant), Harga Ekspor, Volume Ekspor, Nilai Tukar Nominal, GDP China b. Dependent Variable: Nilai Ekspor 89
Lampiran 5b. Tabel Coefficient Regresi Linier Berganda Coefficients a Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients Collinearity Statistics Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Tolerance VIF (Constant) -6,438E8 3,611E9 -,178,865 GDP China 62,233 33,759,766 1,843,125,082 12,233 Nilai Tukar Nominal 177838,276 444906,440,078,400,706,368 2,715 Volume Ekspor 4331,729 637,234,906 6,798,001,793 1,261 Harga Ekspor -674631,713 531996,237 -,573-1,268,261,069 14,464 a. Dependent Variable: Nilai Ekspor Lampiran 5c. Tabel ANOVA Regresi Linier Berganda ANOVA b Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 3,028E19 4 7,569E18 16,480,004 a Residual 2,297E18 5 4,593E17 Total 3,257E19 9 a. Predictors: (Constant), Harga Ekspor, Volume Ekspor, Nilai Tukar Nominal, GDP China b. Dependent Variable: Nilai Ekspor 90
Lampiran 6a. Tabel Uji Normalitas (Kolmogorov Smirnov) One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test Unstandardized Residual N 10 Normal Parameters a,b Mean -,0000004 Std. Deviation 5,05145062E8 Most Extreme Differences Absolute,274 Positive,178 Negative -,274 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z,867 Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed),440 a. Test distribution is Normal. b. Calculated from data. 91
Lampiran 6b. Tabel Hasil Uji Glejser Coefficients a Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) 41974105,142 1,509E9,028,979 GDP China 11,178 14,109 1,141,792,464 Nilai Tukar Nominal 86899,054 185940,043,317,467,660 Volume Ekspor 20,074 266,320,035,075,943 Harga Ekspor -206254,748 222337,539-1,453 -,928,396 a. Dependent Variable: AbsUi 92
Lampiran 7. Tabel Durbin-Watson (DW) α = 5% obs k'=1 k'=2 k'=3 k'=4 k'=5 N dl du dl du dl du dl du dl du 6 0.610 1.400 - - - - - - - - 7 0.700 1.356 0.467 1.896 - - - - - - 8 0.763 1.332 0.559 1.777 0.368 2.287 - - - - 9 0.724 1.320 0.629 1.699 0.455 2.128 0.296 2.588 - - 10 0.879 1.320 0.697 1.641 0.525 2.016 0.376 1.414 0.243 2.822 11 0.927 1.324 0.658 1.604 0.595 1.928 0.444 2.283 0.316 2.645 12 0.971 1.331 0.812 1.579 0.658 1.864 0.512 2.177 0.379 2.506 13 1.010 1.340 0.861 1.562 0.715 1.816 0.574 1.094 0.445 2.390 14 1.045 1.350 0.905 1.551 0.767 1.779 0.632 2.030 0.505 2.296 15 1.077 1.361 0.946 1.543 0.814 1.750 0.685 1.977 0.562 2.220 16 1.106 1.371 0.982 1.539 0.857 1.728 0.734 1.935 0.615 2.157 17 1.133 1.381 1.015 1.536 0.897 1.710 0.779 1.900 0.664 2.104 18 1.158 1.391 1.046 1.535 0.933 1.696 0.820 1.872 0.710 2.060 19 1.180 1.401 1.074 1.536 0.967 1.685 0.859 1.848 0.752 2.023 20 1.201 1.411 1.100 1.537 0.998 1.676 0.894 1.828 0.792 1.991 21 1.221 1.420 1.125 1.538 1.026 1.669 0.927 1.812 0.829 1.964 22 1.239 1.429 1.147 1.541 1.053 1.664 0.958 1.797 0.863 1.940 23 1.257 1.437 1.168 1.543 1.078 1.660 0.986 1.785 0.895 1.920 24 1.273 1.446 1.188 1.546 1.101 1.656 1.013 1.775 0.925 1.902 25 1.288 1.454 1.206 1.550 1.123 1.654 1.038 1.767 0.953 1.886 26 1.302 1.461 1.224 1.553 1.143 1.652 1.062 1.759 0.979 1.873 27 1.316 1.469 1.240 1.556 1.162 1.651 1.084 1.753 1.004 1.861 28 1.328 1.476 1.255 1.560 1.181 1.650 1.104 1.747 1.028 1.850 29 1.341 1.483 1.270 1.563 1.198 1.650 1.124 1.743 1.050 1.841 30 1.352 1.489 1.284 1.567 1.214 1.650 1.143 1.739 1.071 1.833 31 1.363 1.496 1.297 1.570 1.229 1.650 1.160 1.735 1.090 1.825 32 1.373 1.502 1.309 1.574 1.244 1.650 1.177 1.732 1.109 1.819 33 1.383 1.508 1.321 1.577 1.258 1.651 1.193 1.730 1.127 1.813 34 1.993 1.514 1.333 1.580 1.271 1.652 1.208 1.728 1.144 1.808 35 1.402 1.519 1.343 1.584 1.283 1.653 1.222 1.726 1.160 1.803 36 1.411 1.525 1.354 1.587 1.295 1.654 1.236 1.724 1.175 1.799 37 1.419 1.530 1.364 1.590 1.307 1.655 1.249 1.723 1.190 1.795 38 1.427 1.535 1.373 1.594 1.318 1.656 1.261 1.722 1.204 1.792 39 1.435 1.540 1.382 1.597 1.328 1.658 1.273 1.722 1.218 1.789 40 1.442 1.544 1.391 1.600 1.338 1.659 1.285 1.721 1.230 1.786 45 1.475 1.566 1.430 1.615 1.383 1.666 1.336 1.720 1.287 1.776 50 1.503 1.585 1.462 1.628 1.421 1.674 1.378 1.721 1.335 1.771 55 1.528 1.601 1.490 1.641 1.452 1.681 1.414 1.724 1.374 1.768 60 1.549 1.616 1.514 1.652 1.480 1.689 1.444 1.727 1.408 1.767 65 1.567 1.629 1.536 1.662 1.503 1.696 1.471 1.731 1.438 1.767 93
Lampiran 8. Tabel Hasil Uji Granger Causality Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 01/10/16 Time: 12:51 Sample: 2005 2014 Lags: 2 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Prob. HARGA_EKSPOR does not Granger Cause HARGA_DOMESTIK_TINGKAT_P 8 8.83772 0.0553 HARGA_DOMESTIK_TINGKAT_P does not Granger Cause HARGA_EKSPOR 13.7842 0.0307 Lampiran 9. Tabel Coefficient Regresi Linier Sederhana Coefficients a Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) -209,245 60,131-3,480,008 Harga Ekspor,669,013,999 51,943,000 a. Dependent Variable: Harga Domestik tingkat petani 94