Vote Buying in Indonesia: Learning from Survey Data Indikator Politik Indonesia, and Lembaga Survei Indonesia 213
District (Dapil) Level Population: all eligible voters in each of district surveyed Number of districts surveyed: 39 Sampel: 4 for each district Face-to-face interview Quality control: spot-checking, 2% of total sample When: September-Oktober 213 Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 8
Is vote buying acceptable? (%) Survey in 39 Districts, Sep-Okc 213 As an effort to win the election, a particular candidate or his/her campaign team gives away a certain amount of money or goods to voters in order to have their votes In your opinion, is this practice acceptable or unacceptable? (%) 8 7 6 579 5 4 415 3 2 1 5 Acceptable Unacceptable DK/DA Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 15
[For those who said it is acceptable] If it happens to you, are you going to accept the money/goods? 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 287 13 557 43 1 Take the money/goods and give my vote to the candidate Take all the money/goods and give my vote to the candidate who gave the highest value Take all the money, and I'll give my vote to the candidate of my own choice Will not take the money/goods DK/DA Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 16
Demographic Profile Base Acceptable Unacceptable DK/DA GENDER Male 5 4 59 1 Female 5 43 57 RURAL-URBAN Rural 514 44 55 1 Urban 486 39 61 AGE <= 2 45 42 58 1 21-25 68 42 57 26-4 38 43 57 41-55 329 41 59 > 55 178 41 58 1 Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 17
Demographic Profile (cont d) Base Acceptable Unacceptable DK/DA Level of EDUCATION <= Elementary 497 46 53 1 Junior HS 24 42 57 Senior HS 225 36 63 College 73 21 78 INCOME (Rp) < 1 mil 586 47 53 1 - < 2 mil 256 38 61 => 2 juta 158 29 71 Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 18
National Survey (March 213) Population: all eligible voters in Indonesia Sample: 12 MoE assuming simple random sampling 29% Face-to-face interview When: March 213 7
If a candidate give you a certain amount of money for your vote, what would you do? Refuse the money and give my vote to the party of my choice 489 Those who refuse, 543% Refuse the money and give my vote to the party did not give money or goods 54 Just take the money from one party and give my vote to that party 87 Take all the money and give my vote to any of them Take all the money and give my vote to the party of my choice 8 195 Those who accept, 415% Take all the money and give my vote to the party that gave the highest price 53 DK/DA 42 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 22
Real experience: Have you ever been offered money or goods and in return you give your vote for the party or candidate who gave the offer? 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 83 168 29 Yes, I have No, I have not DK/DA Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 23
Have you ever seen someone else who received some money or goods before the election day? 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 85 122 791 2 Yes, a lot of people around here received it Yes, bot not many No, I have not seen any DK/DA Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 24
Party ID: Is there any party that you feel close to? DK/DA, 2 Yes, there is, 143 6 5 51 4 3 26 2 19 1 4 Very close Fairly Close Somewhat close DK/DA No, there is not, 855 Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 28
Mei'11 Jun'11 Jul'11 Des'11 Feb'12 Mei'12 Jun'12 Okt'12 Des'12 Mar'13 Okt'13 Trend of Party ID 25 2 21 18 21 18 18 17 15 1 14 14 12 14 1 5 Sumber sebelum Maret 213: Survei LSI dan SMRC Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 29
Does Party ID make a difference? (%) 7 6 5 4 3 43 38 34 31 53 63 61 69 2 1 Would accept the money Would refuse the money 4 6 DK/DA None Somewhat close Fairly close Very close Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 3
Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Muhammadiyah Other Islamic Organization Church Adat Organization Youth Organizations Sport Club Labor Unions, Peasant Organizations Political Parties Village-based youth Organizations "Arisan" (Raffle?) Cooperation (?) Cultural-based organization Social Organization Membership (%) 25 2 23 227 15 1 5 36 32 62 44 59 62 97 25 57 96 31 Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 31
Does social organization membership make a difference? (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 42 41 55 54 4 5 Member Non-member Will accept the money Will refuse the money DK/DA Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 32
Exposure to money politics and organizational membership? (%) 25 2 2 23 17 15 1 12 Member Non-member 5 Those who have ever been offered Those who have ever seen some else Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 33
Does gender make a difference? (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 54 55 42 41 4 5 Will accept the money Will refuse the money DK/DA Male Female Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 37
Does domicile make a difference? (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 59 47 5 36 3 5 Will accept the money Will refuse the money DK/DA Rural Urban Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 38
Does age make a difference? (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 61 49 51 53 56 54 43 38 39 4 Will accept the money Will refuse the money 1 3 6 DK/DA 6 <= 2 yo 21-25 yo 26-4 yo 41-55 yo > 55 yo Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 39
Does level of education make a difference (%) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 49 47 37 37 23 Will accept the money 6 6 7 Will rerefuse the money 5 3 3 DK/DA 7 <= Elementary Junior HS Senior HS College Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 4
Does level of income make a difference (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 47 49 41 3 Will accept the money 56 66 Will refuse the money 4 3 DK/DA 4 < 1 million 1 - < 2 million => 2 million Semakin besar pendapatan semakin kecil kecenderungannya menerima pemberian Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 41
Does party make a difference? (%) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 62 61 57 57 58 54 51 51 47 46 46 46 48 5 43 42 39 39 38 36 Will accept the money Will not accept the money PKB PDIP NASDEM GERINDRA PPP HANURA DEMOKRAT GOLKAR PAN PKS Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 42
The effects of on accepting/refusing the money DEPENDENT VARIABLE Tendency of accepting the money Experience / exposure to money politics Gender (male) 3 5** Rural-urban (rural) 4 5** Level of education -29*** 6* Age -1-11*** Party ID -11* 5 Organizational membership Experience 18*** ***p<1, **p<1, *p<5 (Logistic regression model) -14 28* Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 213) 45
Thank you 24