Reksa Dana Indosurya HEPI Higher Education Performance Investment Bisma Dewabrata, CFA, PRM, CAIA
Background 1. Keinginan para orang tua untuk memberikan pendidikan terbaik bagi anak-anaknya 2. Pendidikan tinggi (universitas) di negara-negara maju yang lebih baik 3. Jumlah keluarga Indonesia yang dapat mengirim anaknya kuliah di negara-negara maju terbatas 4. Minimnya produk investasi Indonesia yang didesain untuk pembiayaan kuliah di negara-negara maju
Background (cont d) 5. Investasi di pasar modal Indonesia tidak optimal untuk pembiayaan kuliah di negara-negara maju a. Inflasi biaya kuliah yg tinggi di Amerika Serikat (termasuk untuk ukuran masyarakat Amerika) b. Depresiasi jangka panjang Rp. vs. US$ (hasil investasi dalam Rp. terdepresiasi nilai tukar) c. Pasar modal Indonesia yang relatif sangat fluktuatif (kurang sesuai untuk rencana jangka panjang)
Sumber: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics US Tuition Inflation
Sumber: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics US Tuition Inflation (cont d)
HEPI Investment Objective 1. Maximum capital gain dalam US$ dalam jangka panjang 2. Melebihi / menyamai inflasi biaya kuliah di US 3. Mempertahankan daya beli investor Indonesia terhadap depresiasi Rp. vs. US$
Investment Strategy 1. Perusahaan perusahaan besar / large cap dgn minimum market cap > US$ 5 milyar TLKM (PT Telkomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.) Rp. 402 T = US$ 31 milyar * GOOG (Alphabet Inc. a.k.a Google) = US$ 579,1 milyar * 2. High conviction (long-term fundamental) 3. Low Turnover (minimum trading) 4. Concentrated (20-30 saham) * Sumber: Investing.com (7 Maret 2017) & 1 US$ = Rp. 13.400
Investment Style: Large Cap Blend 1. Value: saham-saham yang undervalued 2. Growth: saham-saham perusahaan yang sedang berkembang pesat
HEPI Expected Return: 10% - 20% in US$
Historical Return in US$ (As of Dec. 31, 2016) Return in % 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US Tuition* 6.25 6.24 6.01 5.19 5.02 4.85 4.22 3.69 3.47 4.07 S&P 500 5.49-37.00 26.46 15.06 2.11 16.00 32.39 13.69 1.38 11.96 Ex. Fund 1* 15.02-44.47 79.38 15.20 0.45 18.14 36.49 9.04 4.54 19.25 Ex. Fund 2* -9.66-40.39-31.49 6.14-4.74 12.52 34.43 0.64-6.21-3.70 Return in % (Annualized) 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year US Tuition* 4.07 3.74 4.06 4.90 S&P 500 11.96 8.87 14.66 6.95 Ex. Fund 1* 19.25 10.78 17.00 11.26 Ex. Fund 2* -3.70-3.13 6.57-0.16 * Note: 1. Sumber data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2. Ex. Fund 1 & Ex. Fund 2 adalah salah satu contoh reksa dana lokal Amerika Serikat yang terbaik dan terburuk dari segi performa 10 tahun terakhir menurut Morningstar.
Financial Planning for Higher Education
US Average Full-Time Undergraduate Budgets 2016-17 Sumber: US College Board
US Average Full-Time Undergraduate Budgets 2016-17 Sector Tuition & Fees Room & Board Private Nonprofit 4-Yr On-Campus Public 4-Yr Out-of- State On-Campus Public 4-Yr In- State On-Campus Public 2-Yr In- District Commuter Books & Supplies Transport Other Expenses Total Expenses $33,480 $11,890 $1,230 $1,070 $1,650 $49,320 $24,930 $10,440 $1,250 $1,160 $2,110 $39,890 $9,650 $10,440 $1,250 $1,160 $2,110 $24,610 $3,520 $$8,060 $1,390 $1,760 $2,270 $17,000 Sumber: US College Board
Saving & Investing in Indonesia (Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Year Salary (Rp.) Fund Exchange Rate Saving IHSG Investing Future Value Monthly Increase Annual* Allocated* Rp. / US$ in US$ in IHSG (Rp.) of Investment 2016/2017 College Cost: US$ 40,000 4 Years College Cost: US$ 160.000 Assumptions: 1. 13 x Monthly Salary 2. 25% of salary is allocated for saving / investing Kesimpulan: Target biaya kuliah tidak tercapai 1996 2.000.000 5,00% 26.000.000 6.500.000 2.326 2.794 1997 2.100.000 5,00% 27.300.000 6.825.000 2.431 2.807-45,09% 3.747.421 48.760.230 1998 2.205.000 30,00% 28.665.000 7.166.250 14.500 494-0,91% 7.100.708 81.935.919 1999 2.866.500 5,00% 37.264.500 9.316.125 6.815 1.367 70,06% 15.843.367 123.973.801 2000 3.009.825 5,00% 39.127.725 9.781.931 8.975 1.090-38,50% 6.016.116 76.543.274 2001 3.160.316 30,00% 41.084.111 10.271.028 11.320 907-5,83% 9.671.894 130.678.671 2002 4.108.411 5,00% 53.409.345 13.352.336 8.710 1.533 8,39% 14.473.182 180.405.775 2003 4.313.832 5,00% 56.079.812 14.019.953 8.235 1.702 62,82% 22.827.273 174.756.349 2004 4.529.523 30,00% 58.883.802 14.720.951 9.298 1.583 44,56% 21.281.235 112.697.632 2005 5.888.380 5,00% 76.548.943 19.137.236 9.805 1.952 16,24% 22.244.438 101.343.799 2006 6.182.799 5,00% 80.376.390 20.094.098 9.150 2.196 55,30% 31.205.283 91.547.028 2007 6.491.939 30,00% 84.395.210 21.098.802 9.015 2.340 52,08% 32.086.903 61.897.617 2008 8.439.521 5,00% 109.713.773 27.428.443 9.218 2.976-50,64% 13.539.362 52.911.161 2009 8.861.497 5,00% 115.199.461 28.799.865 10.190 2.826 86,98% 53.850.289 112.548.462 2010 9.304.572 30,00% 120.959.435 30.239.859 9.072 3.333 46,13% 44.190.193 63.202.067 2011 12.095.943 5,00% 157.247.265 39.311.816 8.545 4.601 3,20% 40.569.450 56.224.875 2012 12.700.741 5,00% 165.109.628 41.277.407 9.395 4.394 12,94% 46.620.100 57.206.026 2013 13.335.778 30,00% 173.365.110 43.341.277 9.927 4.366-0,98% 42.914.457 53.182.688 2014 17.336.511 5,00% 225.374.642 56.343.661 11.855 4.753 22,29% 68.903.401 69.825.125 2015 18.203.337 5,00% 236.643.375 59.160.844 13.326 4.440-12,13% 51.985.648 59.952.241 2016 19.113.503 30,00% 248.475.543 62.118.886 13.140 4.727 15,32% 71.638.356 71.638.356 Total (Rp.) 1.781.231.094 Exchange Rate 13.140 Total (US$) 57.182 Total (US$) 135.558
College Financial Planning Birth (Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Start at Birth Year Time to Investment Total College Routine Additional Future Value Present Value of College Cost 0 19 6.000 10.000 137.804 2016/2017 College Cost 40.000 1 18 6.000 46.140 4 Years College Cost 160.000 2 17 6.000 41.196 3 16 6.000 36.782 Tuition Inflation Rate 5,00% 4 15 6.000 32.841 Years to College 19 5 14 6.000 29.323 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost 404.312 6 13 6.000 26.181 7 12 6.000 23.376 HEPI Expected Return 12,00% 8 11 6.000 20.871 9 10 6.000 18.635 Investment Contribution 10 9 6.000 16.638 Monthly 500 11 8 6.000 14.856 Yearly 6.000 12 7 6.000 13.264 13 6 6.000 11.843 14 5 6.000 10.574 15 4 6.000 9.441 Kesimpulan: Target biaya kuliah tercapai 16 3 6.000 8.430 17 2 6.000 7.526 18 1 6.000 6.720 19 0-505.722
College Financial Planning Kindergarten (Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Start at Kindergarten Year Time to Investment Total College Routine Additional Future Value Present Value of College Cost 0 14 7.800 10.000 86.991 2016/2017 College Cost 40.000 1 13 7.800 34.035 4 Years College Cost 160.000 2 12 7.800 30.389 3 11 7.800 27.133 Tuition Inflation Rate 5,00% 4 10 7.800 24.226 Years to College 14 5 9 7.800 21.630 6 8 7.800 19.313 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost 316.789 7 7 7.800 17.243 8 6 7.800 15.396 HEPI Expected Return 12,00% 9 5 7.800 13.746 10 4 7.800 12.273 Investment Contribution 11 3 7.800 10.958 Monthly 650 12 2 7.800 9.784 Yearly 7.800 13 1 7.800 8.736 14 0 - Kesimpulan: Target biaya kuliah tercapai 331.853
College Financial Planning Kindergarten (In Indonesia and Later Converted; Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Start at Kindergarten Year Time to Investment Total College Routine Additional Future Value Kesimpulan: Target biaya kuliah tidak tercapai Present Value of College Cost 0 14 113.230.000 134.000.000 1.747.575.588 2016/2017 College Cost 40.000 1 13 113.230.000 696.032.528 4 Years College Cost 160.000 2 12 113.230.000 605.288.977 3 11 113.230.000 526.375.896 Tuition Inflation Rate 5,00% 4 10 113.230.000 457.750.916 Years to College 14 5 9 113.230.000 398.072.751 6 8 113.230.000 346.174.983 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost 316.789 7 7 113.230.000 301.043.259 8 6 113.230.000 261.795.475 Investment Contribution in US$ 9 5 113.230.000 227.664.526 Monthly 650 10 4 113.230.000 197.983.316 Rp./US$ as of March 10, 2017 13.400 11 3 113.230.000 172.171.721 Rp. equivalent to $650 is 8.710.000 12 2 113.230.000 149.725.251 13 x salary 113.230.000 13 1 113.230.000 130.205.185 14 0 - IHSG 2000-2016 Annualized Return 14,99% In Rp. 6.217.860.372 Exp. Annualized Rp. Depreciation Rate Exchange Rate In US$ Historical Depreciation (1/1/2000-31/12/2016) 3,88% 22.818 272.499 Interest Rate Parity Method 5,97% 30.177 206.047
College Financial Planning Elementary (Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Start at Elementary School Year Time to Investment Total College Routine Additional Future Value Present Value of College Cost 0 12 9.600 10.000 76.361 2016/2017 College Cost 40.000 1 11 9.600 33.394 4 Years College Cost 160.000 2 10 9.600 29.816 3 9 9.600 26.622 Tuition Inflation Rate 5,00% 4 8 9.600 23.769 Years to College 12 5 7 9.600 21.223 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost 287.337 6 6 9.600 18.949 7 5 9.600 16.918 HEPI Expected Return 12,00% 8 4 9.600 15.106 9 3 9.600 13.487 Investment Contribution 10 2 9.600 12.042 Monthly 800 11 1 9.600 10.752 Yearly 9.600 12 0 - Kesimpulan: Target biaya kuliah tercapai 298.439
College Financial Planning Jr. High & High (Public 4-yr Out-of-State On Campus) Start at Junior High School Start at High School Present Value of College Cost Present Value of College Cost 2016/2017 College Cost 40.000 2016/2017 College Cost 40.000 4 Years College Cost 160.000 4 Years College Cost 160.000 Tuition Inflation Rate 5,00% Tuition Inflation Rate 5,00% Years to College 6 Years to College 3 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost 214.415 Future Value of 4 yr. College Cost 185.220 Kesimpulan: Memulai berinvestasi saat SMP / SMA, jumlah yg harus disisihkan menjadi lebih mahal. HEPI Expected Return 12,00% HEPI Expected Return 12,00% Investment Contribution Investment Contribution Monthly 1.800 Monthly 3.800 Yearly 21.600 Yearly 45.600 Year Time to Investment Total Year Time to Investment Total College Routine Additional Future Value College Routine Additional Future Value 0 6 21.600 10.000 62.373 0 3 45.600 10.000 78.114 1 5 21.600 38.067 1 2 45.600 57.201 2 4 21.600 33.988 2 1 45.600 51.072 3 3 21.600 30.346 3 0-4 2 21.600 27.095 5 1 21.600 24.192 6 0-216.061 186.387
Conclusion Pendidikan Tinggi di negara-negara maju dapat lebih mudah dicapai jika para orang tua sudah berinvestasi dengan disiplin sejak awal Reksa dana Indosurya HEPI bertujuan memfasilitasi cita-cita Pendidikan Tinggi anak-anak Indonesia ISAM dapat lebih efektif membantu para orang tua murid mencapai cita-cita anak-anak mereka
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