KONDISI ENERGI PRIMER (MINYAK DAN GAS) INDONESIA Oleh: Eko Widianto VP EP Technology Center PT PERTAMINA (Persero) Disampaikan pada: Pertemuan Nasional Forum Komunikasi Pendidikan Tinggi Teknik Elektro Indonesia 2007 Yogyakarta, 5 6 Desember 2007
CURRICULUM VITAE Name : Ir. Eko Widianto, MT Place of Birth : Semarang, 3 September 1955 Marital Status : Married Address : Rancho Indah, Jl. Tanjung 19 / Blok G-21 Tanjung Barat, Jakarta Selatan 12530 Email : eko.widianto@pertamina.com Academic Record : 1982 : S1 Geologi UGM 1999 : S2 Applied Geophysic ITB Work History : 1982 1985 : Pertamina Exploration Division Jakarta 1986 1993 : Pertamina Exploration Department Plaju 1993 1994 : Pertamina BPPKA Jakarta 1994 1997 : Head of Exploration Planning Jakarta 1998 2000 : Exploration Manager JOB Pertamina Greka Energy 2000 2002 : Chief Geophysic Pertamina Upstream Chairman of HAGI 2002 2006 : GM JOB Pertamina-ConocoPhillips (Sakakemang) Ltd. 2006 2006 : Head of New Venture Division Pertamina 2006 now : VP EP Technology Center Pertamina PERTAMINA Page 2
AGENDA PENDAHULUAN PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI MINYAK BUMI PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI GAS BUMI CADANGAN MIGAS NASIONAL KESIMPULAN 3
History of Oil & Gas Exploration in Indonesia Dutch Colonial Law 8/1971 Era The history of Indonesia s petroleum industry goes back to the Dutch colonialism era and was marked by the beginning of systematic oil exploration in 1865. The first well was drilled in 1871, and the first oil field discovery was made in 1885. Since the independence of Indonesia in 1945 and up to 1950, most oil fields had been discovered in East Java, South and Central Sumatra, and East Kalimantan. In 1966, Pertamina was established as a merger of several upstream and downstream Dutch oil companies. The new contract system (PSC) was first introduced in the same year. In 1971, a new law no 8 clarified Pertamina s roles as an upstream and downstream operator, as well as contractors regulator. A 2001 law specified the deregulation of the country s oil and gas industry PERTAMINA Page 4
REFORM PHILOSOPHY PREVIOUS N E W PERTAMINA (GOVERNMENT) REGULATOR PLAYER 1971-2001 (LAW NO. 8/1971) PERTAMINA PLAYER PERTAMINA & OTHERS REGULATOR DOWNSTREAM Page 5 GOVERNMENT POLICY S BOUNDARY SUPERVISOR UPSTREAM 2001-RECENT (LAW NO. 22/2001) Heri Purnomo, 2006
INDONESIA TOP 10 OIL and GAS PRODUCERS Ref PetroEnergy Magazine No. 6 Year II Oct November 2005 Note : * PERTAMINA Production = PERTAMINA EP + Joint Company CALTEX PACIFIC INDONESIA 452.63 TOTAL 2,679.00 PERTAMINA* 136.12 PERTAMINA* 1,107.00 CONOCOPHILLIPS LTD 92.80 EXXONMOBIL OIL INDONESIA 986.00 TOTAL 69 CONOCOPHILLIPS LTD 839.00 CNOOC(SES) BV 65.93 VICO 613.00 PETROCHINA INT L IND.LTD 53.8 UNOCAL INDONESIA 191.00 MEDCO E&P INDONESIA 52.95 PREMIER OIL 151.00 UNOCAL 45.24 MEDCO E&P INDONESIA 115.64 VICO BPINDONESIA Oil, MBOPD 25.70 23.12 KODECO PETROCHINA INT L IND LTD Gas, MMSCFD 113.70 82.68 GEOTHERMAL WORLD INSTALLED CAPACITY MW 2.228 USA 1.909 PHILLIPINE 855 MEXICO 852 INDONESIA 785 ITALY 546 JAPAN 437 NEW ZEALAND 172.1 ICELAND 161.1 EL SALVADOR 142.5 COSTA RICA PERTAMINA Ref International Geothermal Association, Nov 2005 Note : PERTAMINA EP Geothermal Electric Power Capacity : 162 MW Page 6
Produksi dan Konsumsi Minyak bumi 7
9000 REALISASI DAN PROYEKSI ENERGI PRIMER 8000 7000 6000 SBM/hari 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Minyak Bumi Batubara Gas Tenaga Air Panas Bumi EBT Lainnya PERTAMINA Page 8
INDONESIA: Oil production (bars) & consumption (dots) Thousands of barrels of oil per day 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Energyfiles Ltd Year
INDONESIA: Oil production forecast to 2050 2000 Thousands of barrels of oil per day 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Energyfiles Ltd 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
1800 REALISASI DAN PROYEKSI MINYAK BUMI (SKENARIO PESIMIS) 1500 1200 Ribu Barrel/hari 900 600 300 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 PERTAMINA Produksi Skenario Pesimis Kebutuhan Domestik Page 11
Produksi dan Konsumsi Gas bumi 12
CADANGAN MINYAK INDONESIAN DAN PROVEN GAS OIL AND TERBUKTI GAS RESERVES INDONESIA 1980-2006 14,000 3,500 12,000 3,000 10,000 2,500 8,000 2,000 MMBO TCF 6,000 1,500 4,000 2,000 0 1980 1981 Annual report OPEC 2006 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 YEAR 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 OIL (mmbo) GAS (TCF) 2006 1,000 500 0
PRODUKSI GAS ALAM INDONESIA NATURAL GAS OF INDONESIA (1980-2006) dalam in MMSCF) MMSCFD 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Gross Production mmscf Marketed Production Flaring Reinjection Shrinkage 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Annual report OPEC 2006
14000 PEMANFAATAN VS PRODUKSI GAS BUMI (REALISASI DAN PRODUKSI) 12000 10000 MMSCFD 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 Catatan: Berdasarkan cadangan P1 dan P2 status saat ini PERTAMINA Kontrak Ekspor Kontrak Domestik Tambahan Domestik Produksi CBM Impor LNG Produksi Kemampuan Produksi Page 17
Cadangan dan Sumberdaya Migas Nasional PERTAMINA Page 21
INDONESIA TERTIARY SEDIMENTARY BASINS SOUTH CHINA SEA SULAWESI SEA eastern PACIFIC OCEAN 400 KM INDIAN OCEAN BANDA SEA western TOTAL OF 60 BASINS UNDRILLED 22 DRILLED 38 PRODUCING 15 NON PRODUCING 23 DISCOVERY 8 NON DISCOVERY 15 OIL & GAS RESOURCES & RESERVES RESOURCES OIL (BBO) 84.47 GAS (TCF) 384.27 RESERVES 8.88 133.37 Status : Jan 01, 1999 PERTAMINA Page 22
INDONESIA OIL RESERVE ACEH NATUNA 148.6 North Sumatra Central Sumatra 111.0 2,398.1 0.2 East Kalimantan 582.3 39.5 IRIAN JAYA 92.1 South Sumatra 682.7 10.2 500.4 OIL RESERVE 1P (MMSTB) PERTAMINA West Java 162.9 East Java PROVEN : 4,728 MMSTB POTENTIAL : 5,024.6 MMSTB TOTAL : 9,746.4 MMSTB Page 23 DINAS STUDI EKS.& EVAL JIAN-BANG.
INDONESIA NATURAL GAS RESERVE ACEH NATUNA 3,896 North Sumatera 728 Central Sumatera South Sumatera 3,22 14,260 52,080 5,190 West Java NATURAL GAS 2P (BSCF) 4,395 East Java East Kalimantan 31,814 3,654 1P : 91,170.2 BSCF 2P : 134,015.5 BSCF 3P : 178,128.8 BSCF IRIAN JAYA 14,782 DINAS STUDI EKS.& EVAL JIAN-BANG. PERTAMINA Page 24
WILAYAH KERJA PT PERTAMINA (EP) OIL & GAS POTENTIAL 109 33 1476 535 8515 233 349 9672 46 Total: 4 BB0 & 35.5 TCFG 6253 42 330 64 60 24 22 2141 72 108 65 2330 958 1681 2466 : oil bubble-graph : gas bubble-graph 2466 : oil in MMbbls 9314 : gas in Bcu.ft 65 : number of closure Total Luas WK : 142.510 km2
Newton (2004) Awang H. Satyana - BPMIGAS
INDONESIAN ENERGY POTENTIAL 2007 FOSSIL ENERGY RESOURCES RESERVES PRODUCTION RESERVE/ PRODUCTION (YEAR) Oil 86.9 billion barrel 9.1 billion barrel*) 365 million barrel 25 Gas 384.7 TSCF 187 TSCF 2.77 TSCF 68 Coal 90.5 billion ton 18.7 billion ton 170 million ton 110 CBM 453 TSCF - - -
Kesimpulan Secara nasional pemenuhan kebutuhan gas hingga 2011 akan terpenuhi. Reserve to Production Ratio untuk minyak adalah 25 tahun sedang untuk gas adalah 68 tahun. Dengan asumsi commercial success dari resources menjadi reserve adalah 46%, akan didapatkan tambahan reserve minyak sebesar 40 Billion Barrel dan gas sebesar 177 TCF. Tetap perlunya upaya peningkatan eksplorasi migas Indonesia untuk memenuhi kebutuhan energi primer sesuai target mix energy Option pengalihan sebagian gas alam untuk ekspor menjadi untuk kebutuhan dalam negri layak dipertimbangkan. Perlunya pembangunan infrastruktur penyaluran gas bumi dari lapangan penghasil ke pasar. Proyek gas yang akan onstream sebaiknya tidak mengalami kelambatan
Terima kasih 29
TARGET OF ENERGY MIX (PRESIDENTIAL DECREE NO. 5 YEAR 2006) CURRENT ENERGI MIX (1 million BOE) Hydro Power, 3.11% Geothermal, 1.32% National (Primary) Energy Mix Natural Gas, 28.57% Gas, 30% Target of Energy Mix 2025 (3 million BOE) Oil, 20% Biofuel, 5% RE,17% Geothermal, 5% Oil 51.66% Biomass, Nuclear, Hydro Solar Energy, Wind Power, 5% Coal, 15.34% Coal, 33% Coal Liquefaction 2%