INDONESIA: CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION and IT s 2050 VISION

Transkripsi

1 INDONESIA: CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION and IT s 2050 VISION

2 CURRENT CONDITIONS At present, energy conditions in Indonesia are as follows: There are great potential energy sources Society's access to energy is still limited Oil fuel consumption is 63% of total energy consumption Gas and coal prices are higher on the export market than on the domestic market, Domestic consumers have low purchasing power. The energy industry is not optimal Limited energy infrastructure (Appendixes G1 s/d G4, pages 33-36) Energy prices (such as for fuel, gas for fertilizer factories and new/ renewable energies) that are not commensurate with their economic value (Appendix H, page 40) Inefficient energy utilization (Appendix I, page 41)

3 EXPECTED CONDITIONS Rational Energy prices Society s access to energy Better economic conditions will increase society s purchasing power Security of energy supply (Balanced Energy Mix)

4 FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2005 Household&Comercial 12 Juta KL BBM 63% LPG 6% Gas Kota 0% Batubara 0% Rumah Tangga dan Komersial 24% by Sector Industri 41% Transport BBM 100% Listrik 31% LPG 0% Gas Kota 0% Listrik Batubara 0% 0% 26 Juta KL Transportasi 35% 1,1 Juta Ton By Fuel Type LPG 2% Gas Kota 8% 500 BSCF Industry Gas Kota 19% LPG 1% Batubara 27% Listrik 11% BBM 67% 54 Juta KL Batubara 11% 13 Juta Ton Listrik 12% 100 TWh BBM 42%

5 100% Trend of Indonesia Primary Energy Mix Geothermal 80% Oil 60% Persen 40% Natural Gas 20% Coal Renewable 0% Hydropower PLTA Biofuel Batubara EBT Lainnya Gas Bumi Minyak Bumi Panas Bumi

6 CO 2 Emission from Energy Utilization Other Sector Transport Household Industry PowerPlant Million Ton

7 2005 CO 2 Emission by Sources PowerPlant 26% Industry 37% Other Sector 4% Transport 23% Household 10%

8 NATIONAL ENERGY POTENTIALS 2004 TYPES OF FOSSIL- BASED ENERGY Oil Gas RESOURCES 86.9 billion barrels TSCF RESERVES (Proven + Possible) 9 billion barrels 182 TSCF PRODUCTION (per annum) 500 million barrels 3.0 TSCF CAD/PROD RATIO (without exploration) Years Coal 57 billion tons 19.3 billion tons 130 million barrels 147 NON-FOSSIL ENERGY RESOURCES EQUAL TO USAGE INSTALLED CAPACITY Hydroelectric power Geothermal power Mini/Micro hydro million BOE million BOE MW GW GW MW 6, GWh 2, GWh 4, MW MW MW Biomass GW MW Solar energy 4.80 kwh/m 2 / day 8.00 MW Wind power 9.29 GW 0.50 MW Uranium (Nuclear) * Only in the Kalan region West Kalimantan Tons* e.q. 3 GW for 11 years

9 RESERVES AND NETWORKS OF GAS PIPELINES THAILAND LAOS Manila Khanon Bangkok Ban Mabtapud Erawan CAMBODIA Phnom Penh VIETNAM Ho Chi Minh City South China Sea Philipines Existing Pipeline Planned Pipeline Songkhla Bangkot 3,756 Lawit Jerneh Banda Aceh Lhokseumawe 0,720 Medan Penang Padang WEST Kerteh Duyong MALAYSI Mogpu A Kuala Port Klang Lumpur Port Dickson Dumai Duri 11,516 S U M A T R A Grissik Guntong Jambi Singapore Gas Trunkline SINGAPORE Batam Bintan 5,855 West Natuna Palembang Natuna Alpha 51,627 Kuchin g BRUNEI Bandara Seri Begawan Bintul u EAST MALAYSIA KALIMANTAN Samarinda Banjarmasin Balikpapan Kota Kinibalu 34,021 Bontang LNG Plant & Export Terminal Attaka Tunu Bekapai SULAWESI 3,894 Manado Ternate BURU HALMAHERA 18,520 Sorong SERAM Pacific Ocean Jayapur a IRIAN JAYA Jakarta 5,529 Ardjuna Fields CirebonSemarang 0,11 3,854 MADURA Bangkalan J A V A Surabaya BALI Ujung Pandang I N D O N E S I A Pagerungan SUMBAWA FLORES TOTAL RESERVES 2P : BSCF Merauke Indian Ocean LOMBOK SUMBA TIMOR 3,00 Massela AUSTRALIA GAS RESERVE 2P (BSCF)

10 REFINERIES AND Fuel TRANSPORTATION MODE Khanon THAILAND Bangkok Ban Mabtapud Erawan CAMBODIA Phnom Penh LAOS VIETNAM Ho Chi Minh City South China Sea Philipines Manila Transit Terminal Pipeline Distribution Tanker Oil Refinery Songkhla Bangkot Lawit Jerneh Banda Aceh Penang Lhokseumawe P. Brandan: 5 WEST Kerteh Duyong MBOPD MALAYSI Mogpu A Kuala Port Klang Medan Lumpur Port Dickson Dumai Dumai : 120 MBOPD Duri Batam Padang S U M A T R A Guntong SINGAPORE Bintan Jambi West Natuna Natuna Alpha S.Pakning : 50 MBOPD Grissik Musi MBOPD Palembang Kuchin g BRUNEI Bandara Seri Begawan Bintul u EAST MALAYSIA KALIMANTAN Samarinda Banjarmasin Balikpapan Kota Kinibalu Balikpapan : 260 MBOPD Bontan g Attaka Tunu Bekapai SULAWESI Manado Ternate BURU HALMAHERA Sorong Kasim : 10 MBOPD SERAM Pacific Ocean Jayapur a IRIAN JAYA Jakarta Bandung Cilacap: 348 MBOPD Balongan : 125 MBOPD Semarang Cepu : 3.80 MBOPD MADURA J A V A Bangkalan Surabaya Yogyakarta Indian Ocean BALI LOMBOK Ujung Pandang TOTAL REFINERY CAPACITY I N D O N E S I A1,057,000 BOPD Pagerungan SUMBAWA SUMBA FLORES TIMOR AUSTRALIA Merauke

11 TARGETS: 1.Per-capita energy consumption of a minimum of 10 BOE (RIKEN) and 95% electrification ratio 95% (RUKN) in the year To achieve the security of domestic energy supply, through: Energy elasticity less than 1 in the year 2025 An optimal (primary) energy mix in 2025 : The role of oil decreases to 26.2% The role of natural gas increases to 30.6% The role of coal increases to 32.7% The role of geothermal power increases to 3.8% The role of new and renewable sources of energy increases to 4.4% The fulfillment of fossil-based domestic energy supply through the gradual reduction of exports

12 NATIONAL ENERGI MIX TARGET FOR THE YEAR 2025 (GR No. 5 / 2006) Bio-fuel 5 % COAL 33 % Gas 30 % OIL 20 % NRE 17 % Geothermal 5 % Biomass, Nuclear, Hydropower, Solar, Wind 5 % Coal Liquefaction 2 %

13 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Projected Trends of Indonesia Primary Energy Mix Geothermal Oil Natural Gas Coal Renewable Hydropower Bio Fuel Percent

14 Energy Snap-Shot

15 Energy Snap-Shot Industrial Sector A (CM) 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM) 2050 B (CM) COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE Energy consumption in industrial sector (Mtoe) CO2 emission in industrial sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC) Skenario A B Economic (VA) increase 4% p.a increase 4% p.a. Energy Mix Oil Reduction (50%) Oil Reduction (60%) + New Technology Efficiency Increase Fuel 10%, Ele 25% Fuel 25%, Ele 50%

16 Energy Snap-Shot Residential Sector A (CM) 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM) 2050 B (CM) COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE Energy consumption in Residential sector (Mtoe) CO2 emission in Residential sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC) Skenario A B Growth Rate Cooling 1.5%, Cook(S) 1%, Hot Wtr 0.5%, Cook(E) 1.5%, Lighting (2%), Appliance (2.5%) Energy Mix Oil Reduction; Changed of Non Commersial F A + Advanced Tech. Hot Water, Cooking, etc Efficiency Increase 20% 25%

17 Energy Snap-Shot Transport Sector A (CM) 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM) 2050 B (CM) COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE Energy consumption in Transport sector (Mtoe) CO2 emission in transport sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC) Skenario A B Growth Rate Private car 1%, Commercial 5%, Bus 2.5%, Train 10%, Ship 2.5%, Air 2.5% Energy Mix Introducing Bio Fuel Introducing BioFuel + Hydrogen Efficiency Increase Reguler 300%, Hydrogen 400%, Electric 500%

18 Energy Snap-Shot Power Generation % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2050 A (CM) 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM) 2050 B (CM) COL OIL GAS NUC HYD HYD(P) GEO BMS S/W COL GAS OIL NUC HYD HYD(P) GEO BMS S/W Energy consumption in Transport sector (Mtoe) CO2 emission in transport sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC) Skenario A B Growth Rate Private car 1%, Commercial 5%, Bus 2.5%, Train 10%, Ship 2.5%, Air 2.5% Energy Mix Introducing Bio Fuel Introducing BioFuel + Hydrogen Efficiency Increase Reguler 300%, Hydrogen 400%, Electric 500%

19 Energy Demand Projection A (CM) 2050 A (CM) 2050 B (CM) 2050 B (CM) COL OIL GAS BMS NUC HYD S/W Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg. Primary Energy (Mtoe) Final Energy (Mtoe)

20 Factor Analysis Total D E/D C/E C'/C Total 500% 400% 402% 365% 300% vs 's 200% 100% 138% 79% 0% -100% -200% -86% -103% -139% -166% -22%-34% 2050 A 2050 B

21 AIM/End-use

22 Oil Subsidy Reduction for Residential Oil Used Residential Energy Service Requirement Cooking -> devices Kerosene Stove Gas Stove Biomass Stove Electric Stove Lighting -> devices Incandescent Bulb Electric Appliances Compact Fluorescent Lamp Kerosene Lamp

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