MANAJEMEN PROYEK LANJUT

Transkripsi

1 MANAJEMEN PROYEK LANJUT Advance Project Management Dr. Ir. Budi Susetyo, MT Fakultas TEKNIK Program Magister SIPIL - MK 1

2 Bagian Isi 1. PM and Project financial management 2. Money and time relationship 3. Evaluasi proyek 4. Analisis ketidakpastian dan resiko proyek 5. Analisis financial proyek 6. Perencanaan sumberdaya keuangan proyek 7. Pengawasan dan pengendalian sumberdaya keuangan proyek UTS 8. Studi kasus project financial management 9. Studi kasus perhitungan money and time relationship 1. Studi kasus evaluasi proyek 11. Studi kasus evaluasi dan resiko proyek 12. Studi kasus cashflow proyek 13. Perencanaan cashflow proyek 14. Protap pengawasan dan pengendalian proyek UAS 2

3 Studi Kasus Evaluasi Proyek 3

4 Evaluasi Ekonomi Proyek Pada bagian ini terkait studi kasus evaluasi proyek perlu diperhatikan tahapan atau langkah evaluasi ekonomi proyek sbb : Secara umum perhatikan berbagai hal terkait rencana pengeluaran investasi Tentukan dan rencanakan horizon analisis ekonomi Perkirakan cash flow untuk setiap proyek yang akan di analisis Tentukan minimum tingkat pengembalian (Marginal Rate of Return) Tetapkan kriteria untuk menerima atau menolak suatu proposal proyek, atau kriteria memilih proposal terbaik dari proposal yang ada. Tunjukkan hasil analisis sensitivitas atau ketidakpastian suatu proyek (bila diperlukan sebagai pelengkap) 4

5 Case 1. Example 1: Evaluation of Four Independent Projects The cash flow profiles of four independent projects are shown in Table 6-1. Using a MARR of 2%, determine the acceptability of each of the projects on the basis of the net present value criterion for accepting independent projects. TABLE 1 Cash Flow Profiles of Four Independent Projects (in $ million) t A t,1 A t,2 A t,3 A t,

6 Case 1. Using i = 2%, we can compute NPV for x = 1, 2, 3, and 4 from Eq. (6.5). Then, the acceptability of each project can be determined from Eq. (6.6). Thus, [NPV 1 ] 2% = (235)(P F, 2%, 5) = = 17.4 [NPV 2 ] 2% = (28)(P U, 2%, 5) = = 8.4 [NPV 3 ] 2% = (28)(P U, 2%, 4) - (8)(P F, 2%, 5) = =.4 [NPV 4 ] 2% = 18 + (1)(P F, 2%, 1) - (4)(P F, 2%, 2) - (6)(P F, 2%, 3) + (3)(P F, 2%, 4) + (5)(P F, 2%, 5) = = -1.6 Hence, the first three independent projects are acceptable, but the last project should be rejected. It is interesting to note that if the four projects are mutually exclusive, the net present value method can still be used to evaluate the projects and, according to Eq. (6.7), the project (x = 1) which has the highest positive NPV should be selected. The use of the net equivalent uniform annual value or the net future value method will lead to the same conclusion. However, the project with the highest benefitcost ratio is not necessarily the best choice among a group of mutually exclusive alternatives. Furthermore, the conventional internal rate of return method cannot be used to make a meaningful evaluation of these projects as the IRR for both x=1 and x=2 are found to be 25% while multiple values of IRR exist for both the x=3 and x=4 alternatives.

7 Case 2. Example 2: Effects of Taxes on Investment A company plans to invest $55, in a piece of equipment which is expected to produce a uniform annual net revenue before tax of $15, over the next five years. The equipment has a salvage value of $5, at the end of 5 years and the depreciation allowance is computed on the basis of the straight line depreciation method. The marginal income tax rate forthis company is 34%,and there is no expectation of inflation. If the after-tax MARR specified by the company is 8%, determine whether the proposed investment is worthwhile, assuming that the investment will be financed by internal funds. Using Equations, (the after-tax t cash flow can be computed as shown in Table 2. Then, the net present value discounted at 8% is obtained from Equation as follows: The positive result indicates that the project is worthwhile.

8 Case 2. TABLE 2 After-Tax Cash Flow Computation Year t Before-tax Cash Flow A t Straight-line Depreciation D t Taxable Income A t -D t Income Tax X t (A t -D t ) After-Tax - $55, - $55, 1-5 each 5only + $15, + $5, $1, $5, $1,7 + $13,3 + $5,

9 Case 3. Example 3: Effects of Inflation Suppose that, in the previous example, the inflation expectation is 5% per year, and the after-tax MARR specified by the company is 8% excluding inflation. Determine whether the investment is worthwhile. In this case, the before-tax cash flow A t in terms of constant dollars at base year is inflated at j = 5% to then-current dollars A' t for the computation of the taxable income (A' t -D t )andincome taxes. The resulting after-tax flow Y' t in terms of then-current dollars is converted back to constant dollars. That is, for X t = 34% and D t = $1,. The annual depreciation charges D t are not inflated to current dollars in conformity with the practice recommended by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. Thus: A' t =A t (1 + j) t =A t (1 +.5) t Y' t =A' t -X t (A' t -D t )=A' t - (34%)(A' t - $1,) Y t =Y' t (1 + j) t =Y' t (1 +.5) t The detailed computation of the after-tax cash flow is recorded in Table 6-3. The net present value discounted at 8% excluding inflation is obtained by substituting Y t for A t in Eq. Hence, [NPV] 8% ) = -55, + (13,138)(P F, 8%, 1) + (12,985)(P F, 8%, 2) + (12,837)(P F, 8%, 3) + (12,697)(P F, 8%, 4) + (12, ,)(P F, 8%, 5) = -$227 With 5% inflation, the investment is no longer worthwhile because the value of the depreciation tax deduction is not increased to match the inflation rate.

10 Case 3. TABLE 3 After-Tax Cash Flow Including Inflation Time t Constant $ B-Tax CF A t -$55, +15, +15, +15, +15, +15, +5, Current $ B-Tax CF A' t +$55, Current $ depreciation D t Current $ after depreciation A' t -D t Current $ income tax X t (A' t -D t ) +15,75 $1, $5,75 $1,955 16,54 1, 6,54 2,224 17,365 1, 7,365 2,54 18,233 1, 8,233 2,799 19,145 1, 9,145 3,19 Current $ A-Tax CF Y' t -$55, +13, , , , ,36 Constant $ A-Tax CF Y t -$55, +13, , , , ,564 +5, Note: B-Tax CF refers to Before-Tax Cash Flow; A-TaxCFreferstoAfter-TaxCashFlow

11 Pustaka 1. Hendricson, Project Management for Construction, Web Version, Zulkarnain Djamin, Perencanaan dan Analisa Proyek, Universitas Indonesia,