PEMODELAN TSUNAMI DALAM INA-TEWS. Velly Asvaliantina, M.Eng.Sc Balai Pengkajian Dinamika Pantai - BPPT

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1 PEMODELAN TSUNAMI DALAM INA-TEWS Velly Asvaliantina, M.Eng.Sc Balai Pengkajian Dinamika Pantai - BPPT

2 Objectives Pemodelan tsunami dalam TEWS : Sebagai pendukung Tsunami warning BMG pre- calculated tsunami database (arrival time, H) Mendukung rencana evakuasi/mitigasi bencana perhitungan/simulasi rendaman (run-up) up) berdasarkan data historis atau hipotetis. informations for tsunami hazard mitigation activities (e.g: vulnerability/risk assessment, coastal/urban planning, etc.): tsunami innundation map, possible tsunami arrival time and run-up up height.

3 Earthquake Occurence Time in minute Process TSUNAMI WARNING Tsunami Recorded No Recorded : Cancellation Scenario of Tsunami Early Warning Process (Planed) Seis.. At REITWC Record Alarm Triggered Automatic Call Eq.. Location Magnitudo DATA BASE Historical Simulation WARNING for National Scale WARNING for Regional Scale REGIONAL TEWC Alarm at NEITWC Automatic Call Real Time Up Date Interactive Analysis PROCESSING/ AUTOMATIC INTERACTIVE PROCESSING Real Time Up Date DATA BASE Historical Simulation BUOYS TIDE GAUGE S MONITORING For Confirmation NATIONAL TEWC DEPUTI SISTEM DATA DAN INFORMASI - BMG

4 TUGAS MASING-MASING INSTITUSI DALAM TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM DI INDONESIA PEMASANGAN SENSOR DAN MONITOR GETARAN SEISMIK SEISMOGRAPH Rencana : 160; Terpasang : 70 (s/d( 2006) ACCELEROGRAPH Rencana : 500; Terpasang: : 51 (s/d( 2006) SYARAT Lapisan Batuan Bebas Getaran Ketersediaan Listrik Jalan masuk Keamanan 2. MONITOR GELOMBANG LAUT - Tide Gauge (Bakosurtanal( Bakosurtanal) - GPS Buoys (BPPT) 2. DEFORMASI KERAK BUMI - GPS (Bakosurtanal( Bakosurtanal) Pembangunan Kapasitas/ Capacity Building RISTEK, Universitas, Institusi Riset) -Pemodelan -Pembangunan Database -PEnelitian dan Pengembangan PROSES DATA 1. PENGOLAHAN OTOMATIS - Lokasi Sumber Gempa, - Waktu, - Kekuatan - Kedalaman 2. PROSES CROSS CHECK - Kekuatan? - Lokasi? - Tsunami? 3. DATA BASE - Sejarah Tsunami - Pra-kalkulasi kalkulasi/ Simulasi Tsunami DISEMINASI INFO Tsunami Warning Informasi Gempabumi - PUSKODAL POLRI - PUSKODAL TNI - GUBERNUR- BUPATI-W.KOTA - DEPSOS - DEPKES - BAKORNAS - SATKORLAK - STA TV - RADIO - RADIO PANTAI - ADPEL - PROVIDER GSM/ CDMA Pendidikan Kebencanaan (RISTEK, Depdiknas,, LIPI) -Edukasi Publik -Kesiapsiagaan -Latihan Evakuasi Tsunami MITIGASI, REHABILITASI TANGGAP DARURAT Transportasi (Dep. Hub) Komunikasi (Depkominfo.) Jalan, Tenda (Dep. PU) Makanan & Air Bersih (Kementerian Kesra, Depsos) Kesehatan, Sanitasi (Depkes) Manajemen Resiko (Dephankam) Lain-lain (BAKORNAS) 3

5 EWMS functional overview

6 Precalculated Database Concept Shore k k-1 Computation Concept Tsunami 2-D (Tatehata, 1996) f(x,y) x0,y1 x1,y1 1-l Tsunami l x0,y0 x1,y0 Database Structure (Tatehata, 1996) M=7,7 M=7,4 M=7,1 M=6,8 M=6,5 M=8,0 Hypocenter and Tsunami Source Island

7 Hypothetic tsunami sources distribution for whole Indonesian region (gray dot with interval 20 arc minutes and blue dot with interval 40 arc minutes)

8 Aceh Maximum Inundation Area Source: UNOSAT According to Satelite Image (Spot 5) : Inundation area within study area (D domain) in main land is 78.3 sq Km. According to Model: Inundation area within study area (D domain) in main land is 79.2 sq Km.

9 Tsunami Run-up Selatan Bali

10 POTENSI BENCANA TSUNAMI RUNUP RESOLUSI 1 & 5 M

11 POTENSI BENCANA TSUNAMI RUNUP RESOLUSI 1 M KOTA PADANG SUMATRA BARAT

12 POTENSI BENCANA TSUNAMI RUNUP RESOLUSI 1 & 5 M

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15 State of the Art of Tsunami Numerical Modeling

16 Existing Methods : TUNAMI (Tohoku( Univ.) Finite difference, leap-frog scheme, nested grid Deep water propagation: linear longwave theory; Inundation model: non-linear Calculated run-up up under estimate MOST (PMEL/NOAA) Finite difference - TSUNAWI (AWI) Finite element ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunami): Web-based inundation model

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18 3.Current Status and Future Plan Area has been simulated: Southern Bali (2006) Anyer, Sunda Str.. ( ) 07) Tl.Betung ( ) 2007) Bengkulu (2006) Aceh (2005) Padang (2005) Pacitan / Pancer Future Plan: - South Java & Painan (JICA) - Sunda Strait (INA-NOAA) NOAA) - Cilacap (LIPI) - Other prone area (NTT,NTB,etc( NTT,NTB,etc)