Kerangka kerja penghitungan cadangan karbon secara menyeluruh. Andree Ekadinata, Meine van Noordwijk and Ujjwal Pradhan

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1 Kerangka kerja penghitungan cadangan karbon secara menyeluruh Andree Ekadinata, Meine van Noordwijk and Ujjwal Pradhan

2 Gambaran umum penghitungan cadangan karbon secara menyeluruh dari AFOLU Penghitungan cadangan karbon dengan Rapid Carbon Stock Appraisal (RACSA) Contoh hasil penerapan RACSA Implementasi RACSA pada berbagai kegiatan Implementasi strategis penghitungan karbon secara menyeluruh: ekonomi, sosial dan tenurial

3 Gambaran umum penghitungan cadangan karbon secara menyeluruh dari AFOLU

4 Kuantifikasi dan monitoring Sebagai dasar untuk menentukan baseline Untuk menunjukkan bahwa ada additionality (pengurangan emisi dari deforestasi dan degradasi) dibandingkan baseline Deteksi kebocoran/leakage (terjadinya peningkatan emisi dari deforestasi dan degradasi di tempat lain dikarenakan adanya proyek REDD dalam skala subnasional) Mendemonstrasikan permanence dalam periode waktu yang disetujui

5 Total accounting frameworks IPCC Guidelines 2006 for AFOLU All carbon pools: living biomass (aboveground and belowground), dead organic matters (litter and necromass) and soil carbon All 6 land use categories: Forest land, cropland, wetland, grassland, settlement, other land All transition between land use categories (remains and converted) Disaggregation-aggregation, stratification by climatic or other ecological regions, forest types, land-use or forestry practices, fuelwood gathering patterns, etc Tier definitions for methods in AFOLU: from simplest (Tier 1) to the most sophisticated (Tier 3) Choice of methods (gain-loss vs stock changes) and choice of activity data

6 Penghitungan cadangan karbon dengan Rapid Carbon Stock Appraisal (RACSA)

7 Persamaan generik C = ij A ij [ C ij LB + C ij DOM + C ij SOILS ] / T ij C = perubahan tahunan cadangan karbon keseluruhan, ton C/tahun A ij = luas dari tipe penggunaan lahan i yang berubah menjadi j (ha) C ij LB = perubahan cadangan karbon pada biomasa hidup dari perubahan tipe penggunaan lahan i menjadi j (ton C/ha) C ij DOM = perubahan cadangan karbon pada bahan oganik mati dari perubahan penggunaan lahan dari tipe i menjadi j (ton C/ha) C ij SOILS = perubahan cadangan karbon dalam tanah dari perubahan penggunan lahan tipe i menjadi j (ton C/ha) T ij = periode waktu yang ditetapkan untuk pengukuran dan pemantauan, tahun.

8 1 Initial discussion on land cover land use and land use system 2 Land uses system stratification and zonation RACSA Designing sample plot 3 Data acquisition and ground truthing BIOPHYSIC C-stock measurement in plot level 4 Satellite image interpretation SPATIAL ANALYSIS Calculation of Time averaged C-stock 5 Land cover change analysis Scaling up measurement at landscape level 6

9 Variability at landscape level

10 Sistem Penggunaan Lahan Penggunaan lahan (land use) mengacu kepada aktifitas manusia pada lahan tertentu Tutupan lahan (land cover) mengacu pada tipe vegetasi yang ada pada lahan tertentu Zonasi mengacu pada zonasi biofisik atau kebijakan yang mempengaruhi tutupan dan pengelolaan lahan Sistem pengunaan lahan (SPL) menggabungkan ketiganya, termasuk siklus perubahan vegetasi dan aktifitas pengelolaan (penanaman, pemanenan)

11 Sistem penggunaan lahan dan cadangan karbon Jenis vegetasi yang membentuk tutupan lahan menentukan besarnya cadangan karbon dan kemampuannya dalam menambat karbon Aktivitas dalam sebuah tipe penggunaan lahan umumnya berpengaruh pada perubahan cadangan karbon (emisi atau penambatan karbon) Sistem pengunaan lahan panjang rotasi dan tipe mempengaruhi rata-rata cadangan karbon (time-averaged C- stock)

12 Definisi kawasan hutan berdasarkan kanopi Definisi kawasan hutan berdasarkan institusi BUKAN KAWASAN HUTAN TANPA POHON POHON DI LUAR KAWASAN HUTAN KAWASAN HUTAN DENGAN POHON KAWASAN HUTAN TANPA POHON Agroforestry, perkebunan, dll TOTAL AREA Tebang buka/ penanaman kembali termasuk definisi hutan; tanpa batas waktu penanaman kembali

13 Landscape: Designation vs Actual

14 Time averaged C-stock Cadangan C per siklus tanam, Mg ha HUTAN ALAMI Tebang & Bakar Agroforest Hilang viat&b Perolehan via aforestasi Tertinggal di lahan Tebang Rata-rata C per siklus tanam, Mg ha -1 (IPCC, 2001, hal 209)

15 C-stock t/ha (Tomich et al., 1998) Time averaged C-stock dari berbagai sistem penggunaan lahan Degradation, t/ha Deforestation - 5 t/ha Trees Understorey Necromass Litter Soil (S) 0-5 cm S, 5-10 cm S, cm S, cm

16 Interpretasi citra satelit berbasis objek Spectral info: - Digital number - Texture and variation, etc Spatial info: - size - shape - location - etc Neighborhood info: - Distance to - Association with

17 Objects, levels and hierarchy Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Area is segmented into objects which have less variation within than between objects Higher segmentation level allows more variation than lower

18 Contoh hasil penerapan RACSA

19 Klasifikasi Sistem Penggunaan Lahan

20 Peta Penutupan Lahan Propinsi Jambi 1990s

21 Peta Penutupan Lahan Propinsi Jambi 2000s

22 Peta Peta Penutupan Tutupan Lahan Propinsi Jambi tahun

23 Cadangan Karbon Pada Setiap Sistem Penggunaan Lahan

24 Peta Cadangan Karbon Propinsi Jambi 1990s Tahun 1990

25 Peta Cadangan Karbon Propinsi Jambi 2000s Tahun 2000

26 Peta Cadangan Karbon Propinsi Jambi Tahun

27 Peta Emisi Propinsi Jambi

28 Implementasi RACSA pada beberapa kegiatan penelitian

29 Accountability and Local Level Initiative for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in Indonesia (ALLREDDI) To assist Indonesia to account for land-use based greenhouse gas emissions and to be ready to use international economic REDD incentives for emission reduction in its decision making at the local and national levels National baseline using existing data minimum data gap filling - National Forest Inventory TSP, PSP Capacity building national and regions Sub-national baselines within a nested system and REDD scheme in 5 areas

30 National Forest Inventory of Indonesia as part of Forest Resource Assessment KALIMANTAN SELATAN TSP/PSP systematically sampled throughout Indonesia

31 Sistem Penggunaan Lahan Natural Forest: undisturbed, low logging intensity, high logging intensity Swamp forest and mangrove: undisturbed, low logging intensity, high logging intensity Timber tree-based system (monoculture): teak, sengon, acacia, eucalyptus, mahogany, rubber, etc. Non-timber tree-based system (monoculture): oil palm, coconut, horticulture, etc Mixed/multistrata tree-based system dominated by non-timber species: coffee, cocoa, coconut Mixed/multistrata tree-based system dominated by timber species: rubber Mixed/multistrata system: no dominant species Bush/shrub Grassland: imperata, savanna Bareland Settlement

32 Implementasi strategis penghitungan karbon secara menyeluruh: ekonomi, sosial dan tenurial

33 Abatement cost analysis Remote sensing data interpretation and spatial analysis Time-averaged C- stock of land use systems Private and social profitability: Net Present Value of land use 3.67 * Time 1 Land use/ cover C-stock Net present value Time 2 NPV Time 2 NPV Time1 Land use/ cover C-stock Net present value Cstock Time 1 Cstock Time 2 LULCC matrix timeaveraged C-stock= CO 2 emission NPV= economic gain in $ / t CO 2 eq

34 Abatement costs ($/t CO 2 -eq) (log scale) Jambi (lahan gambut tidak diperhitungkan) Total: 7.3 t CO 2 / ha / year, 63.6% below 5$/t CO 2 Logged over forest to shrub Logging Logged over forest to oil palm Logged over forest to rubber Net cumulative emissions (t CO 2 -eq/ha/year) Rubber af to rubber Kelapa sawit dan karet pada tanah mineral

35 Jambi (emisi dari lahan gambut diperhitungkan) Total : 31.2 t CO 2 / ha / year, Abatement costs ($/t CO 2 ) (log scale) Forested peat to annual cropping and shrub 92.7% below 5$/t CO 2 Forested peat to oil palm Logged over peat to rubber Forested peat to settlement Logged over forest to rubber Net cumulative emissions (t CO 2 -eq/ha/year)

36 Abatement costs ($/t CO 2 ) (log scale) Abatement costs ($/tco 2 -eq) (log scale) Abatement costs ($/t CO 2 -eq) (log scale) Abatement costs ($/t CO 2 -eq) (log scale) Forested peat to annual cropping and shrub Forest to grassland Logging Logged over forest to shrub Logging Logged over forest to oil palm Logged over forest to rubber Forest to annual cropping Forest to coffee AF Logging Lampung Forested peat to oil palm Jambi (incl. peat lands) Logged over forest to plantation Rubber AF to rubber Jambi (excl. peat) Logged over peat to rubber East Kalimantan Net cumulative emissions (t CO2-eq/ha/year) Forested peat to settlement Logged over peat to rubber Large differences in per ha emissions between the three provinces

37 Questions regarding carbon rights Carbon markets has brought the issue of carbon right to the forefront Key questions are: 1. Who has, or can claim the right to carbon or sell carbon or engage in co-investment in emission reduction efforts (local communities, concessionaire, forest management unit, local government, national government)? 2. Who has or can claim the right to receive payments for avoided damage? and 3. Who decide who has the right to carbon? These question point to the need for resolving land tenure and other natural resource rights, forest management rights, stakeholders rights, understanding customary norms and practices, perhaps free and prior informed consent, and/or a process of negotiation an compromise over shared benefits

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