Indonesia Economy : Challenge and Opportunity NUNUNG NURYARTONO Go-Live Round Table Discussion Adelaide 7 November Outline A Fact on Indonesia Economy Problem and Challenge Opportunity Discussion 1
Indonesia : current and future Sources: McKinsey Global Institute (2012) GDP Growth : tend to slow down GDP Growth 7.00 6.81 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.99 6.29 5.81 6.44 6.58 6.49 6.44 6.33 6.34 6.21 6.18 6.03 5.76 5.63 5.72 5.21 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 10 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 11 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 12 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 14 Q1 GDP Poly. (GDP) 0.42 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.30 Gini Ratio 0.41 0.41 0.413 0.37 0.38 0.35 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 40 20 0-20 Export and Import 7.82 19.68 22.12 26.06-1.66-4.08 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2
Indonesian s Economy Structure 2007-2012 2007 27,35 N 25,04 36,73 24,67 26,08 40,27 24,30 38,12 28,65 44,97 Sektor Dominan Pertanian Pertambangan & Penggalian Industri Pengolahan Perdagangan, Hotel Keuangan & Persewaan Jasa-Jasa 32,33 32,33 26,92 33,81 28,81 28,98 41,62 22,45 Sumber : Nuryartono (2014), data diolah dari informasi BPS 31,99 43,20 38,42 36,00 40,27 22,36 36,10 60,41 1000 0 1000 2000 Kilometers 2012 Source : Nuryartono (2014), 3
Java Island is an engine of growth Share Size of Economy 2005 dan 2012 (persen) 60 58.84 57.63 50 40 30 23.79 22.11 20 10 4.07 4.73 2.23 1.99 10.7 10 2.2 2.07 0 Sumatra Jawa Sulawesi Bali NTT dan NTB Kalimantan Papua dan Maluku 2005 2012 Poverty map in rural areas: 2013 Sumber : Nuryartono (2014), peta tematik diolah dari BPS Poor people (%) Papua Barat 36.89 Papua 40.72 Maluku Utara 9.20 Maluku 26.30 Sulawesi Tenggara 16.92 Sulawesi Barat 13.31 Sulawesi Selatan 13.31 Sulawesi Tengah 15.89 Gorontalo 24.22 Sulawesi Utara 10.46 Kalimantan Timur 10.24 Kalimantan Selatan 5.50 Kalimantan Tengah 6.45 Kalimantan Barat 10.07 Nusa Tenggara Timur 22.69 Nusa Tenggara Barat 16.22 Bali 5.00 Jawa Timur 16.23 DI Yogyakarta 17.62 Jawa Tengah 16.05 Banten 7.22 Jawa Barat 11.42 DKI Jakarta 0.00 Lampung 15.62 Bengkulu 17.97 Kepulauan Bangka 6.97 Sumatera Selatan 14.50 Jambi 7.54 Kepulauan Riau 9.21 Riau 9.55 Sumatera Barat 8.30 Sumatera Utara 10.33 Aceh 20.14 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.00 4
Persen (%) Aceh Sumut Sumbar Riau Jambi Sumsel Bengkulu Lampung Jakarta Jabar Jateng DIY Jatim Bali NTB NTT Kalbar Kalteng Kalsel Kaltim Sulut Sulteng Sulsel Sultra Maluku Papua 11/7/2014 Increasing Inequality among the region 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 2012 2013 Infrastructure Development an comparison Infrastructure index 1991-2007 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 45 44 44.33 38.42 39.71 36 36 33.39 34.03 34 31.59 31.57 29 29 32 21.90 97.04 85 60 44 40 47 48 40.86 39.50 45.32 45.67 55.50 29 31.76 28 27.00 26 22.81 23 21.71 41 42.77 49.63 48.27 46 28 37 33 29.65 32.57 27.06 28.19 29.79 25 27 27 1991 2007 Source : Prasetyo, Nuryartono 2012 5
Challenges Human resources quality : IPM (121); compare to Malaysia (64), Thailand (103), Philippina (114), dan Singapura (18) (UNDP, 2013) Competitivenes Index : 38; compare to Singapura (2), Malaysia (24), Thailand (37) (World Economic Forum, 2014) Asean Economics Community in 2015; Winner or looser ADB report : in Asia Region potentially 11 countries as fast growing emerging economies will be trapped in middle income trap : Indonesia is one of that. Role of research & innovation In 2013 predicted GDP Indonesia USD 1,283 Billion with around 0.25% from GDP for R&D Expenditures InterCAFE Source: The International World Bank Center for Aplied Finance and Economics 6
Opportunity Fiscal Policy reform Demography bonus New Government play a role Thank you very much.. 7
Government Expenditure 350,000.0 300,000.0 250,000.0 200,000.0 150,000.0 100,000.0 50,000.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1. Belanja Pegawai 2. Belanja Barang 3. Belanja Modal 4. Pembayaran Bunga Utang 5 a. Subsidi Energi 5 b. Subsidi Non Energi 6. Belanja Hibah 7. Bantuan Sosial 8. Belanja Lain-Lain Who s get what from fuel subsidy? 8
Meningkatkan kualitas hidup manusia Indonesia VISI-MISI AGENDA PRIORITAS EKONOMI Meningkatkan produktivitas rakyat dan daya saing di pasar internasional PROGRAM AKSI Mewujudkan kemandirian ekonomi dengan menggerakan sektor-sektor strategis ekonomi domestik 9